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Rui Hachimura

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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1261 » by pcbothwel » Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:18 pm

nate33 wrote:
DCZards wrote:Negative: I was disappointed in Rui’s midrange shooting, especially during the games in the bubble. I saw that as one of his strengths coming into the league and it was pretty decent early on the season. But it seemed to fall off.

Positive: I thought Rui was much more physical and aggressive after returning from the injury. He may have had his best defensive game against the Greek Freak in late February. Rui really seemed to relish the challenge of defending Giannis. He frustrated the Greek Freak a little, which helped lead to Giannis forcing things and fouling out of the game. Cap One crowd really got behind Rui and his defensive effort on that occasion.

Rebounding and shooting 3s are among the areas that need improvement. I do think Rui got better at taking opponents off the dribble as the season wore one. That was actually something he showed real improvement in during the bubble games.

Great point about his D against Giannis.

I really think Rui will be a better defensive player than offensive player when it is all said and done. He has the tools and a willingness to be physical. And if he is as smart as the coaching staff claims, then he will learn to develop a defensive edge in the film room.


Agreed... Another guy that gives me hope is TJ Warren.
Tweener forward that could score and out muscle you, but didnt rebound, pass, or defend at a high level and appeared limited as a shooter from 3.
Statistically, and stylistically, Rui appears to be a better version in every way (Longer, better athlete/defensive tools, better %shooter/scorer) and TJ has done well in improving as a shooter(3p% / FT%):
Draft year (Soph): 27%/69%, Years 1-3 in NBA: 31%/75%, Years 4-6 in NBA: 38%/79%

That is encouraging as TJ appears to be a poor mans Rui.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1262 » by payitforward » Mon Sep 28, 2020 2:33 pm

nate33 wrote:[...I really think Rui will be a better defensive player than offensive player when it is all said and done. He has the tools and a willingness to be physical. And if he is as smart as the coaching staff claims, then he will learn to develop a defensive edge in the film room.

Been meaning to get back here....

This is a very interesting take, nate -- & would be a great result.

It does go well with the general sense that, coming late to the game, Rui lacks "feel" (which I interpret as something more like "experience"). So that for him, "learning" will be even more critical than it is for most kids his age.

Of course, that same learning might also make him a better offensive player too. While, on the minus side perhaps, it might make him something of a late bloomer. We'll see.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1263 » by Ruzious » Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:55 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:[...I really think Rui will be a better defensive player than offensive player when it is all said and done. He has the tools and a willingness to be physical. And if he is as smart as the coaching staff claims, then he will learn to develop a defensive edge in the film room.

Been meaning to get back here....

This is a very interesting take, nate -- & would be a great result.

It does go well with the general sense that, coming late to the game, Rui lacks "feel" (which I interpret as something more like "experience"). So that for him, "learning" will be even more critical than it is for most kids his age.

Of course, that same learning might also make him a better offensive player too. While, on the minus side perhaps, it might make him something of a late bloomer. We'll see.

I hope you guys are right. Do I think you guys are right? Well, I hope you guys are right. 8-)
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1264 » by payitforward » Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:24 pm

Along the same lines perhaps...
pcbothwel wrote:... Another guy that gives me hope is TJ Warren.
Tweener forward that could score and out muscle you, but didnt rebound, pass, or defend at a high level and appeared limited as a shooter from 3.
Statistically, and stylistically, Rui appears to be a better version in every way (Longer, better athlete/defensive tools, better %shooter/scorer) and TJ has done well in improving as a shooter(3p% / FT%):
Draft year (Soph): 27%/69%, Years 1-3 in NBA: 31%/75%, Years 4-6 in NBA: 38%/79%

That is encouraging as TJ appears to be a poor mans Rui.

Warren had the best year of his career this last season. He's way improved his 3-point shooting & FT shooting as you point out. He posted a .61 TS% this year -- that's really good.

Overall, however, he still isn't a good player -- you can't be an effective forward in this league & get 5 rebounds per 40 minutes!

Warren was a lottery pick (#14) in 2014 -- taken 5 spots later than Rui was. Is that what you mean by calling him a "poor man's Rui?"

For a guy who shoots as much as Warren does, he doesn't turn the ball over much. That's true of Rui as well....
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1265 » by payitforward » Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:31 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:[...I really think Rui will be a better defensive player than offensive player when it is all said and done. He has the tools and a willingness to be physical. And if he is as smart as the coaching staff claims, then he will learn to develop a defensive edge in the film room.

Been meaning to get back here....

This is a very interesting take, nate -- & would be a great result.

It does go well with the general sense that, coming late to the game, Rui lacks "feel" (which I interpret as something more like "experience"). So that for him, "learning" will be even more critical than it is for most kids his age.

Of course, that same learning might also make him a better offensive player too. While, on the minus side perhaps, it might make him something of a late bloomer. We'll see.

I hope you guys are right. Do I think you guys are right? Well, I hope you guys are right. 8-)

I hope that's how it turns out. But I can't be "right" in this case, b/c I didn't mean to be predicting anything.

So far Rui hasn't been good -- which is not to say that he should have been expected to be good as a rookie. This is a way that it might turn out okay.

Doesn't mean that picking him was the best way -- or even a good way -- of using the #9 pick in the 2019 draft. That will never be the case.

But, he can still turn out to be a good NBA player.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1266 » by pcbothwel » Mon Sep 28, 2020 5:30 pm

payitforward wrote:Along the same lines perhaps...
pcbothwel wrote:... Another guy that gives me hope is TJ Warren.
Tweener forward that could score and out muscle you, but didnt rebound, pass, or defend at a high level and appeared limited as a shooter from 3.
Statistically, and stylistically, Rui appears to be a better version in every way (Longer, better athlete/defensive tools, better %shooter/scorer) and TJ has done well in improving as a shooter(3p% / FT%):
Draft year (Soph): 27%/69%, Years 1-3 in NBA: 31%/75%, Years 4-6 in NBA: 38%/79%

That is encouraging as TJ appears to be a poor mans Rui.

Warren had the best year of his career this last season. He's way improved his 3-point shooting & FT shooting as you point out. He posted a .61 TS% this year -- that's really good.

Overall, however, he still isn't a good player -- you can't be an effective forward in this league & get 5 rebounds per 40 minutes!

Warren was a lottery pick (#14) in 2014 -- taken 5 spots later than Rui was. Is that what you mean by calling him a "poor man's Rui?"

For a guy who shoots as much as Warren does, he doesn't turn the ball over much. That's true of Rui as well....


He's a poor mans Rui because Rui has the same skill set while being more raw (I.E. Ability to build on current skill set) and having a better physical profile (Longer, more athletic, quicker laterally)
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1267 » by payitforward » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:32 pm

That doesn't make a ton of sense to me, given that Warren is really a 3 -- or a "3+" (i.e. a tweener):

1. If you leave aside scoring, they are not similar.

2. Then, if you turn to look at scoring, you see that on 20% higher usage than Rui, T.J. Warren posted a 61% TS% as against Rui's 53.7%.

Warren has turned into a terrific scorer if nothing else -- how can he be the poor man's version of a rookie who, so far, is a well below average scorer?

Still... I suppose this is just descriptive words. What I definitely do not see is any way in which Warren is some kind of "target" for Rui -- God forbid. He isn't good.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1268 » by prime1time » Tue Sep 29, 2020 3:05 am

payitforward wrote:That doesn't make a ton of sense to me, given that Warren is really a 3 -- or a "3+" (i.e. a tweener):

1. If you leave aside scoring, they are not similar.

2. Then, if you turn to look at scoring, you see that on 20% higher usage than Rui, T.J. Warren posted a 61% TS% as against Rui's 53.7%.

Warren has turned into a terrific scorer if nothing else -- how can he be the poor man's version of a rookie who, so far, is a well below average scorer?

Still... I suppose this is just descriptive words. What I definitely do not see is any way in which Warren is some kind of "target" for Rui -- God forbid. He isn't good.

I think he's talking about when Warren was a rookie...
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1269 » by pcbothwel » Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:48 pm

prime1time wrote:
payitforward wrote:That doesn't make a ton of sense to me, given that Warren is really a 3 -- or a "3+" (i.e. a tweener):

1. If you leave aside scoring, they are not similar.

2. Then, if you turn to look at scoring, you see that on 20% higher usage than Rui, T.J. Warren posted a 61% TS% as against Rui's 53.7%.

Warren has turned into a terrific scorer if nothing else -- how can he be the poor man's version of a rookie who, so far, is a well below average scorer?

Still... I suppose this is just descriptive words. What I definitely do not see is any way in which Warren is some kind of "target" for Rui -- God forbid. He isn't good.

I think he's talking about when Warren was a rookie...


This.
Position: Warren is the same size as Rui with the same shortcomings in rebounding. The fact that he played a lot of his career with the Morris Twins, PJ Tucker, and Chandler/Chriss lineups doesnt make him a 3 as much as he was in big lineups.

Poor Mans: As 21 y/o rookies, Rui was a better rebounder, averaged more assist, less turnovers, less fouls, on higher usage and twice as many minutes.
As I stated above, Rui shows some signs of surpassing Warrens best very quickly. Why?
Body - Rui is a quicker, more explosive athlete

Scoring - Rui's 26% FTr as a rookie is higher than any of Warrens 6 years... Rui's 82% FT% is also higher than any of Warrens 6 years... Rui's "Long 2" FG% is higher than any of Warrens first 5 years.

Rebounding - Rui's 9.5 RBDs/100 is ALSO higher than any of Warrens 6 years

Soo.....

Rui, as a rookie, is a bigger, stronger, more explosive wing that rebounds, draws fouls, and shows better projection as both a shooter and playmaker.
Again... whats your beef?... That Warren at 27 is better?!?

Didnt you just point out in the draft thread that the 2nd round is "Full of Malcom Brogdons"?
Are you saying that there are numerous 2nd round Guards that will start on multiple playoff teams and average a per 36 of 19 /8 /6 or have a TS of 61%?
I assume thats not what you mean, but instead are comparing them to Brogdan the prospect/rookie. :wink:
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1270 » by Ruzious » Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:24 pm

prime1time wrote:
payitforward wrote:That doesn't make a ton of sense to me, given that Warren is really a 3 -- or a "3+" (i.e. a tweener):

1. If you leave aside scoring, they are not similar.

2. Then, if you turn to look at scoring, you see that on 20% higher usage than Rui, T.J. Warren posted a 61% TS% as against Rui's 53.7%.

Warren has turned into a terrific scorer if nothing else -- how can he be the poor man's version of a rookie who, so far, is a well below average scorer?

Still... I suppose this is just descriptive words. What I definitely do not see is any way in which Warren is some kind of "target" for Rui -- God forbid. He isn't good.

I think he's talking about when Warren was a rookie...

...which is a reasonable comp, imo. I think they were similar type players coming out of college.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1271 » by nate33 » Tue Sep 29, 2020 2:27 pm

Here are their numbers coming out of college. They were somewhat similar, though Rui was quite a bit more efficient as a scorer and a shooter. Rui also has almost 4 inches longer of a wingspan, which should theoretically help him match up with 4's and 5's better.

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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1272 » by prime1time » Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:16 pm

nate33 wrote:Here are their numbers coming out of college. They were somewhat similar, though Rui was quite a bit more efficient as a scorer and a shooter. Rui also has almost 4 inches longer of a wingspan, which should theoretically help him match up with 4's and 5's better.

Image

Yup, it's a fair comparison. But what he's saying is that Rui is rawer because he started playing later.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1273 » by Ruzious » Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:01 pm

It's great to have a longer wingspan, but if you don't play like you have a longer wingspan, it doesn't mean anything. And a guy like Tyler Herro - who has a tiny wingspan - is a terrific player. Watching Rui - he does not at all play like someone who has an advantage with length. Jimmy Butler's wingspan = his height, and he's a star. And Rui shooting .417 from 3 didn't mean anything because he rarely shot from 3. I mean, nobody's going to be exactly the same as another player, but they were close - had virtually the same strengths and weaknesses.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1274 » by nate33 » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:15 pm

Ruzious wrote:It's great to have a longer wingspan, but if you don't play like you have a longer wingspan, it doesn't mean anything. And a guy like Tyler Herro - who has a tiny wingspan - is a terrific player. Watching Rui - he does not at all play like someone who has an advantage with length. Jimmy Butler's wingspan = his height, and he's a star. And Rui shooting .417 from 3 didn't mean anything because he rarely shot from 3. I mean, nobody's going to be exactly the same as another player, but they were close - had virtually the same strengths and weaknesses.

In my defense, I said that Rui should theoretically match up with 4's and 5's better. He has the standing reach to challenge their shots better than Warren can. Whether or not he actually will defend 4's and 5's better remains to be seen. Rookies are usually awful at defense, so it's a little unfair to judge his future defensive value based on his rookie year.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1275 » by pcbothwel » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:22 pm

Ruzious wrote:It's great to have a longer wingspan, but if you don't play like you have a longer wingspan, it doesn't mean anything. And a guy like Tyler Herro - who has a tiny wingspan - is a terrific player. Watching Rui - he does not at all play like someone who has an advantage with length. Jimmy Butler's wingspan = his height, and he's a star. And Rui shooting .417 from 3 didn't mean anything because he rarely shot from 3. I mean, nobody's going to be exactly the same as another player, but they were close - had virtually the same strengths and weaknesses.


Ruz... thats why we have to look at indicators. Rui is a very good FT shooter and very good on long 2's, so his SSS on 3PA in college and his poor 3Pt% as a rookie can cause people to overthink it. Rui will very likely be a very good scorer in this league on strong efficiency.
I also think his man defense will actually be very good. My questions are very specific. Will any improvements to his man defense help offset some of his issues as a team defender? Will his strong scoring on solid efficiency and usage be enough to offset mediocre rebounding numbers and below average vision/feel.

Now, you could point to someone like Tobias Harris as another Rui Comp to show that no matter how well you score, those other deficiency's simply dont go away and will, in time, cost your team. You wouldnt be wrong as growing into a better playmaker & rebounder are a bit harder that improvements in shooting.

But there outliers, and I dont mean extreme cases like Jimmy Butler.
In sticking with the bigs, you could look at Siakam, Bam, John Collins, Harrell
Siakam, as a 23 y/o going into his 2nd NBA season, had 3k minutes between college and the NBA under his belt that showed what type of player he was.
He appeared to be a defensive 3/4 that could guard 3 positions and would rebound. However, he was a terrible shooter from anywhere outside 10 feet (Including the FT line) and averaged more turnovers than assist. He appeared well on his way to being Aminu... which is a solid player.

But then... over the next 12-24 months, his AST% went up 5X and his TOV% went down while he went from a 50 / 15 / 68 shooter to a 55 / 37 / 78 shooter. Thats not some improvement, thats a complete change in the way in which a player plays the game. lol

Collins & Bam are other examples of guys who appeared to be black holes on offense all of a sudden making huge leaps. Again, Bam went from 1 Ast/36 in college to 2.7 his rookie year, to 5.5 this last year.

I know it may sound like Rui is a "Man, he just needs to put all the tools together" type player that leaves many fan bases unsatisfied... but I contend most of those players who dont put it together fall into 2 categories:

1) Overrated tools: This happens a lot with Prep/AAU kids who get the stigma of talented/athletic/etc. But in reality, they end up having only average measurements and/or functional athleticism. A lot of times, they are older and/or more physically developed than their peers which allows them to beat up 16 y/o kids... Examples from the last few years: Nassir Little, Josh Green, Quentin Grimes, Josh Jackson, Ivan Rabb, Diamond Stone, Stanley Johnson, Winslow, Shabazz Muhammad, etc.

And/Or

2) Poor IQ/Work ethic: This is the bigger let down as its harder to let these players go. These guys never put it together because they dont work on their skill set enough and/or do not have the mental capacity/hardware/awareness to read the game and make good decisions. Examples of this: Anthony Edwards, Josh Jackson, Knox, Monk, Skal, Mudiay, Jabari Parker, Wiggins, Anthony Bennett.

I contend that Rui doesnt belong in either camp. His physical profile matches/exceeds what most thought of him over the last 3 years and every indication we've received from people that have been around him is that he loves the game, loves to work, and picks up new things quickly.

Point is, lets ride with him for another year and see what happens.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1276 » by payitforward » Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:45 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
prime1time wrote:
payitforward wrote:That doesn't make a ton of sense to me, given that Warren is really a 3 -- or a "3+" (i.e. a tweener):

1. If you leave aside scoring, they are not similar.

2. Then, if you turn to look at scoring, you see that on 20% higher usage than Rui, T.J. Warren posted a 61% TS% as against Rui's 53.7%.

Warren has turned into a terrific scorer if nothing else -- how can he be the poor man's version of a rookie who, so far, is a well below average scorer?

Still... I suppose this is just descriptive words. What I definitely do not see is any way in which Warren is some kind of "target" for Rui -- God forbid. He isn't good.

I think he's talking about when Warren was a rookie...


This.
Position: Warren is the same size as Rui with the same shortcomings in rebounding. The fact that he played a lot of his career with the Morris Twins, PJ Tucker, and Chandler/Chriss lineups doesnt make him a 3 as much as he was in big lineups.

Poor Mans: As 21 y/o rookies, Rui was a better rebounder, averaged more assist, less turnovers, less fouls, on higher usage and twice as many minutes.
As I stated above, Rui shows some signs of surpassing Warrens best very quickly. Why?
Body - Rui is a quicker, more explosive athlete

Scoring - Rui's 26% FTr as a rookie is higher than any of Warrens 6 years... Rui's 82% FT% is also higher than any of Warrens 6 years... Rui's "Long 2" FG% is higher than any of Warrens first 5 years.

Rebounding - Rui's 9.5 RBDs/100 is ALSO higher than any of Warrens 6 years

Soo.....

Rui, as a rookie, is a bigger, stronger, more explosive wing that rebounds, draws fouls, and shows better projection as both a shooter and playmaker.
Again... whats your beef?... That Warren at 27 is better?!?

Didnt you just point out in the draft thread that the 2nd round is "Full of Malcom Brogdons"?
Are you saying that there are numerous 2nd round Guards that will start on multiple playoff teams and average a per 36 of 19 /8 /6 or have a TS of 61%?
I assume thats not what you mean, but instead are comparing them to Brogdan the prospect/rookie. :wink:

I don't exactly have a beef; I'm not even sure I'd say Warren is particularly "better" at 27 than rookie Rui.

I just don't see TJ Warren as a useful player to compare with Rui. I.e. those "Brogdon" types I mentioned -- yes, they are (sorta/kinda) like Brogdon the prospect, which means they have the prospect of becoming like Brogdon.

Obviously, you don't want to suggest that Rui has the prospect of becoming like Warren! :)
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1277 » by payitforward » Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:12 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
Ruzious wrote:It's great to have a longer wingspan, but if you don't play like you have a longer wingspan, it doesn't mean anything. And a guy like Tyler Herro - who has a tiny wingspan - is a terrific player. Watching Rui - he does not at all play like someone who has an advantage with length. Jimmy Butler's wingspan = his height, and he's a star. And Rui shooting .417 from 3 didn't mean anything because he rarely shot from 3. I mean, nobody's going to be exactly the same as another player, but they were close - had virtually the same strengths and weaknesses.


Ruz... thats why we have to look at indicators. Rui is a very good FT shooter and very good on long 2's, so his SSS on 3PA in college and his poor 3Pt% as a rookie can cause people to overthink it. Rui will very likely be a very good scorer in this league on strong efficiency.
I also think his man defense will actually be very good. My questions are very specific. Will any improvements to his man defense help offset some of his issues as a team defender? Will his strong scoring on solid efficiency and usage be enough to offset mediocre rebounding numbers and below average vision/feel.

Now, you could point to someone like Tobias Harris as another Rui Comp to show that no matter how well you score, those other deficiency's simply dont go away and will, in time, cost your team. You wouldnt be wrong as growing into a better playmaker & rebounder are a bit harder that improvements in shooting.

But there outliers, and I dont mean extreme cases like Jimmy Butler.
In sticking with the bigs, you could look at Siakam, Bam, John Collins, Harrell
Siakam, as a 23 y/o going into his 2nd NBA season, had 3k minutes between college and the NBA under his belt that showed what type of player he was.
He appeared to be a defensive 3/4 that could guard 3 positions and would rebound. However, he was a terrible shooter from anywhere outside 10 feet (Including the FT line) and averaged more turnovers than assist. He appeared well on his way to being Aminu... which is a solid player.

But then... over the next 12-24 months, his AST% went up 5X and his TOV% went down while he went from a 50 / 15 / 68 shooter to a 55 / 37 / 78 shooter. Thats not some improvement, thats a complete change in the way in which a player plays the game. lol

Collins & Bam are other examples of guys who appeared to be black holes on offense all of a sudden making huge leaps. Again, Bam went from 1 Ast/36 in college to 2.7 his rookie year, to 5.5 this last year.

I know it may sound like Rui is a "Man, he just needs to put all the tools together" type player that leaves many fan bases unsatisfied... but I contend most of those players who dont put it together fall into 2 categories:

1) Overrated tools: This happens a lot with Prep/AAU kids who get the stigma of talented/athletic/etc. But in reality, they end up having only average measurements and/or functional athleticism. A lot of times, they are older and/or more physically developed than their peers which allows them to beat up 16 y/o kids... Examples from the last few years: Nassir Little, Josh Green, Quentin Grimes, Josh Jackson, Ivan Rabb, Diamond Stone, Stanley Johnson, Winslow, Shabazz Muhammad, etc.

And/Or

2) Poor IQ/Work ethic: This is the bigger let down as its harder to let these players go. These guys never put it together because they dont work on their skill set enough and/or do not have the mental capacity/hardware/awareness to read the game and make good decisions. Examples of this: Anthony Edwards, Josh Jackson, Knox, Monk, Skal, Mudiay, Jabari Parker, Wiggins, Anthony Bennett.

I contend that Rui doesnt belong in either camp. His physical profile matches/exceeds what most thought of him over the last 3 years and every indication we've received from people that have been around him is that he loves the game, loves to work, and picks up new things quickly.

Point is, lets ride with him for another year and see what happens.

But, you call things "indicators" which aren't at all. Other than indicating that "anything is possible," which can't be your point. There is a whole spectrum of change-cases, out of which you simply pick the ones you prefer, then call them positive "indicators." Of course, you are not alone in doing this; it's pretty typical fan-processing.

In particular, it's hard to use Siakam as a comparison w/ anyone, as he had one truly outstanding year, last year, & has now come back to the pack: e.g. his 2pt. % was 60% last year; it's 50% this year. Presenting that as 55% over the last 2 years provides zero insight. TS% last year 62.8%; this year 55.4%.

Above all, the development paths of e.g. Bam/Collins does not indicate that Rui will proceed along the same path. It's not information of any kind whatever in respect of Rui! Any more than if I found someone who went down rather than up, it would be relevant to Rui's future.

IQ/work ethic is another matter -- these Rui has. So whatever his ceiling is, one can expect him to approach it. Only problem is that we have no idea what his ceiling is! No one can know these things in advance.

OTOH, "let's ride with him for another year and see what happens" is definitely apropos -- that is, it's all we can do! :)
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1278 » by payitforward » Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:26 pm

nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:It's great to have a longer wingspan, but if you don't play like you have a longer wingspan, it doesn't mean anything. And a guy like Tyler Herro - who has a tiny wingspan - is a terrific player. Watching Rui - he does not at all play like someone who has an advantage with length. Jimmy Butler's wingspan = his height, and he's a star. And Rui shooting .417 from 3 didn't mean anything because he rarely shot from 3. I mean, nobody's going to be exactly the same as another player, but they were close - had virtually the same strengths and weaknesses.

In my defense, I said that Rui should theoretically match up with 4's and 5's better. He has the standing reach to challenge their shots better than Warren can. Whether or not he actually will defend 4's and 5's better remains to be seen. Rookies are usually awful at defense, so it's a little unfair to judge his future defensive value based on his rookie year.

Judgment of Rui is "premature diagnosis;" medical students are prone to that.

Rui is certainly big enough & athletic enough to play as a 4; & if he can, he should. I see no reason why he wouldn't improve his defense as well. Working hard & being a quick learner help as well.

All these factors make things possible. But, they don't suffice to make them happen. The difference between adequate, journeyman level & really good player level happens in tiny tiny differences physical, mental, etc. that can't be calculated in advance or predicted in advance.

You can see this phenomenon in artists, writers & musicians. There are men & women who have everything they need & look like they can't miss, but they do. & there are surprises as well -- people with the ability to take some skills that don't seem particularly critical or important & turn them into tremendous output. No different in athletics I don't think.

& this is no more true true about Rui than about any other young player who seems to have all that is required but hasn't yet achieved excellence. Then there are some who just show up & blow your mind w/ how good they are immediately. Again, it's as true in athletics as it is in the arts.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1279 » by prime1time » Wed Sep 30, 2020 12:42 am

payitforward wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
prime1time wrote:I think he's talking about when Warren was a rookie...


This.
Position: Warren is the same size as Rui with the same shortcomings in rebounding. The fact that he played a lot of his career with the Morris Twins, PJ Tucker, and Chandler/Chriss lineups doesnt make him a 3 as much as he was in big lineups.

Poor Mans: As 21 y/o rookies, Rui was a better rebounder, averaged more assist, less turnovers, less fouls, on higher usage and twice as many minutes.
As I stated above, Rui shows some signs of surpassing Warrens best very quickly. Why?
Body - Rui is a quicker, more explosive athlete

Scoring - Rui's 26% FTr as a rookie is higher than any of Warrens 6 years... Rui's 82% FT% is also higher than any of Warrens 6 years... Rui's "Long 2" FG% is higher than any of Warrens first 5 years.

Rebounding - Rui's 9.5 RBDs/100 is ALSO higher than any of Warrens 6 years

Soo.....

Rui, as a rookie, is a bigger, stronger, more explosive wing that rebounds, draws fouls, and shows better projection as both a shooter and playmaker.
Again... whats your beef?... That Warren at 27 is better?!?

Didnt you just point out in the draft thread that the 2nd round is "Full of Malcom Brogdons"?
Are you saying that there are numerous 2nd round Guards that will start on multiple playoff teams and average a per 36 of 19 /8 /6 or have a TS of 61%?
I assume thats not what you mean, but instead are comparing them to Brogdan the prospect/rookie. :wink:

I don't exactly have a beef; I'm not even sure I'd say Warren is particularly "better" at 27 than rookie Rui.

I just don't see TJ Warren as a useful player to compare with Rui. I.e. those "Brogdon" types I mentioned -- yes, they are (sorta/kinda) like Brogdon the prospect, which means they have the prospect of becoming like Brogdon.

Obviously, you don't want to suggest that Rui has the prospect of becoming like Warren! :)

I framed it wrong. Compare rookie TJ Warren vs. rookie Rui. I think that's the comparison.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1280 » by payitforward » Wed Sep 30, 2020 3:18 am

We've probably dragged this through the mud puddle enough times by now, but... I'm not sure that even Warren as a rookie was much of a comparo for Rui. Still... it hardly matters if he was or wasn't! :)
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