JWizmentality wrote:Doc ..ever the voice of morale crushing logic and reason.
Oh I can put on my happy talk hat and make a case for this team in the future if you want to hear it. Including the players just mentioned.
Thomas Bryant Jr.
I was encouraged by how hard he was working against Montrezl et al in the UCLA open runs last offseason. He showed an outside shot, improved footwork in the post, he was even working on his outside defense. Okay perhaps he was showing the dribble drive more than he would need in the NBA, but in scrimmages like that you rarely get chemistry with a point guard. He and IT had a few moments, but still, a big man is a pass-dependent player. That seems to be the key in his case. He suffered significantly in playing next to the Hero Ball version of IT once the whistles were live. He played his best in the past in limited minutes next to John Wall. This goes both ways. Playing next to IT not only deprived him of touches but exposed his lateral difficulties on defense. He should not have been in the position to have to recover for outside breakdowns as often as he did. This has been true even when Wall was playing (if not to say healthy). The Bone Spurs John Wall was often standing around on defense as well, or letting the Pick and Roll switch him off his man rather than chase.. Bigs underneath had no chance to cover their man and everyone elses.
Here is a chance for the team to significantly improve: if we had better outside defense, bigs could stay at home within a one step do-si-do of the basket (to dodge the 3 second rule). If on the outside we had guards who would fight over and through the pick, then our Bigs would not be caught out of position on switches trying to keep up with smaller quicker guards. There is a chance of hope there. With the development of Real Deal Brad Beal, John Wall has been talking about how he can divert effort from high usage offense, to commit to defensive effort. Beal too has talked about how much effort he has spent on attack, to the detriment of his D. If Wall is coming back healthy and strong (STRONG! if the pics are to be believed) maybe he has the will to fight on defense. If so, he has proven in the past to be a shut down defender when he is locked in at that end. Stalling the opponent at the point of the attack gives us the luxury of playing our bigs close to the paint.
As for chasing Bigs to the perimeter: If opponents want their bigs to chuck rocks from outside, okay. let them. We have midrange rebounders who are willing to snatch long bounces. Brown. Beal. Wall. Bonga. All read angles well on rebounding outside shots. Bryant has long arms and can hoover up uncontested rebounds near the bucket. If we concede that sometimes an Embiid or KAT or Lopez will hit an outside shot, then we can commit to what we can do well while minimizing what we suck at: score efficiently; snatch rebounds. If so, we can keep Bryant on the floor, scoring efficiently is the thing he does best. He and Wall seemed to have good chemistry. In this case Wall simply has to show his leadership on defense first. And work the 2 man game with Bryant. Especially if Bryant can begin to groove that outside shot, for when Bigs sag off him on the pick, to try to prevent Wall from driving.
Brown. Bonga.
Both are young and skilled and precocious. Yes there is hope for development on outside shots. As hinted at above, they have a skill we do need: rebounding. Both try on defense and are smart. Neither has the athleticism to make up for teammates shortfalls, but both anticipate well and play good team ball at that end. Bonga's length surprises opponents. Troy has a sense of the Moment. Ultimately though the flashes of skill they are showing this young is the most hopeful thing. The fact that they are not flashy is actually a benefit. It means their re-sign price may have a few %'s discount, and we will see the real benefit of their early learning curve on their next contract. The fact that their games are similar gives us not only redundancy, but depth, to platoon players without drop off from one to the next. And redundancy allows you to explore trades for chemistry if there's a better fit. Both are here on a discount relative to their performance. If I could ask something of their development, I'd want them to hit the outside shots, and still do what they do: back door, smart passes, finish in traffic with floaters and junk balls. Play smart team D.
Rui.
What is hopeful here is his potential over his production. He has the requisite size and strength and athleticism. Coupled with his purported work ethic, the hope is that he can realize that potential. Granted his game is behind the curve on defense and rebounding. Those are key roles for a frontcourt player. But he is not scared of contact on offense, seems to relish banging and mixing it up. I wish we had a Charles Oakley/Rodman type who could teach him some fundamentals and dirty work underneath. Hire Mike Ruffin back here. Rui needs a Big Man camp to teach him how to properly use his physical advantages. That said, what people like about his game is the things he has shown in the past: high percentage scoring. While being doubled and hacked. Yeah he has tunnel vision. He doesn't pass out of defense. But in college and FIBA play he showed the ability to score anyway. And we see flashes of it here. When he is playing his game, he is tough to stop. He hit a ridiculous % of 2 pt shots in NCAA/FIBA. This is a secret weapon if it can translate to the next level. Teams don't scheme to stop 2pt jumpers. In the playoffs thats' what wins. Players like Kawhi feast on that fact. And that is what this team could potentially do to prove a mismatch against opponents. That was how Toronto won a chip and how the Bucks win the regular season every year. If you hit every 2pt shot you take, and rebound all the opponents missed threes, you control the tempo. On this team we also have Beal hitting outside shots, and possibly Bertans if we retain him, so all we need to solve is the rebounding part of the equation. Rui has the tools to do so, if not the instincts or repetitions. This is why I want to land a Xavier Tillman or other strong savvy fundamental interior player. I want a guy who can take Rui to school in practice and give him a wall to beat himself against.
The rest?
Wall. Beal. Tommy. Draft picks. And a team with guys that are good character and easy to cheer for.
It takes a few years for young players to win. The fact that Rui, Bonga, Brown are showing flashes early is exciting. They have vets who love the game for its own sake, lifers in it. Wall, every coach who has had him says he breathes basketball and is the smartest guy they've coached. He's got a lot to prove. If his health holds up then his Act 2 may surpass the first half of his career. Smarts and desire can make up for any decline in his foot speed. In Walls case he was often going too fast for the action anyway. 90% of John Wall is still faster than 80% of the league. It's not like he got shorter, and his game is based on a pass first read/react software that has been undone at times by teammates who don't see the game as quickly. As Tommy reminds us John Wall made an all-league defensive team. When he can focus on this end he is a terror.
Beal is putting up HOF numbers this year. Low ego guy who wants to be here. He has taken his teaching role seriously. He needs a back up to mentor, but still, his game fits any team. Why he has been coveted every year by every team that is trying to contend.
Tommy. He is a wild card. So far he has made some surprising moves. Mostly good. And people genuinely like him and seem to do favors for him. Thats a switch from the last guy who teams genuinely seemed to look forward to fleecing. The team is scoring at a ridiculous rate, even while they are outscored at the other end. He has put together an analytics team to inform not just drafting but in game play and half time adjustments. If we get the right parts I expect we will suddenly get surprising results in a good way. And I think we can trust Tommy to get the right parts. Hopefully to include coaching, in my opinion, but still. He's an optimist, and we clearly have room for improvement to live up to that spark of optimism.
Draft picks. This draft people are talking about selling 1st round picks for cash. !!!!
!!!
If Tommy has an open checkbook, this year we can steal some real talent on the cheap. There are some players in the draft who are under the radar, chiefly defensive players who are commonly undervalued and often don't look like the best picks in their draft year until 3-4 years down the line. But if this team can land a handful of solid picks and win the Pelton value game, then who knows what could happen. Draft picks are still always the place where you can land an all-star for pennies on the dollar if you are smart about it. Kawhi and Giannis say hello. You never know. But I do trust our scouring and analytics guys to find value out there. It's no longer relying on the eye test and picking knuckleheads based on athleticism and not results. IN a way I'm more excited about the UFA types like Garrison Matthews to see what Tommy can sift from the trash heap after the draft.