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Rui Hachimura

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wall_glizzy
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1761 » by wall_glizzy » Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:52 am

payitforward wrote:I have to check something, I hope you won't mind: last year, Rui got to the line 3.5 times per 36 minutes, while this year, Rui has gotten to the line 3.6 times per 36 minutes.

Has Rui improved at getting to the line, stayed the same, or gotten worse? Which one is it?

Last year, Rui shot .829 from the line, while this year he's shot .769.

Has Rui improved as a free throw shooter, stayed the same, or gotten worse? Which one is it?

Here's another player, not going to mention his name: this year, he has gotten to the line 7.5 times per 36 minutes & has shot .893 from the line.

Is this player better at getting to the line than Rui? Or can't you answer that question without knowing his name? Is he better at shooting FTs than Rui -- or do you need to know his name before you can answer that question?

OTOH, this player has shot 2 pt. FGAs at .484, while Rui has shot about the same number of them at .528.

Is Rui better than this player overall at scoring on 2-pointers? Or do you need to know the player's name to answer the question?


Not sure if this was supposed to be rhetorical or what, but drawing free throws is best measured as a rate stat. That is, last year Rui drew .257 free throws for each field goal he attempted, and this year he's drawing .289. Comparing raw cumulative numbers of a 3rd-4th option between a year he did not play with Russell Westbrook and a year he did tells you less than nothing. He's shooting fewer total free throws because he's shooting less. However, he's drawing fouls more often with the possessions that he does get.

I don't understand the relevance, and you'd obviously want to compare the free throw rate of each player, but obviously player #2 is better at shooting the actual free throws than Rui. Were you replying to anyone in particular? Had someone claimed that this unnamed player was terrible at getting to the line?
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1762 » by pcbothwel » Wed Mar 31, 2021 12:05 pm

Yeah. I never understood why anyone failed to come around on Rui as a legit 3rd piece. His ability to gather easy baskets with running the floor, making free throws, and exploiting size mismatches in the post along with his overall skill always pointed to a guy that would end up on ~20 ppg with a TS around 58+.

While there may an outside chance that his overall IQ/awareness would take a leap and his passing & team defense would improve, it certainly isnt required given his scoring prowess and ever improving man defense.

I have pointed to Tobias Harris a number of times, and I dont see any reason why that isnt still the case. Or why a Harris outcome would be anything short of a homerun.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1763 » by smoothSeph » Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:55 pm

Read on Twitter
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1764 » by WallToWall » Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:46 pm

smoothSeph wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=21
As good as this 10 game stretch has been, we have to temper it with:
1. Its 10 games. Let's see consistency over a much longer period of time.
2. He is the 3rd (or 2nd when Beal or Westbrook is not in the lineup) option for scoring on the team, and as such, isn't guarded as well as the #1 or #2
3. Rebounding numbers need to go up a bit more.

Gotta like the trajectory, and the promise he shows. I think he has it in him to make another leap on the rebounding and defensive side. Additionally, it would be good for him to learn how to play with an edge and/or assertiveness, like Westbrook. He is still learning the NBA game, and figuring out what he can do well. Right now, we can say Shep did well to pick Rui. I am really enjoying watching him and watching his development.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1765 » by payitforward » Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:49 pm

MDStar wrote:
payitforward wrote:I have to check something, I hope you won't mind: last year, Rui got to the line 3.5 times per 36 minutes, while this year, Rui has gotten to the line 3.6 times per 36 minutes.

Has Rui improved at getting to the line, stayed the same, or gotten worse? Which one is it?

Last year, Rui shot .829 from the line, while this year he's shot .769.

Has Rui improved as a free throw shooter, stayed the same, or gotten worse? Which one is it?

Here's another player, not going to mention his name: this year, he has gotten to the line 7.5 times per 36 minutes & has shot .893 from the line.

Is this player better at getting to the line than Rui? Or can't you answer that question without knowing his name? Is he better at shooting FTs than Rui -- or do you need to know his name before you can answer that question?

OTOH, this player has shot 2 pt. FGAs at .484, while Rui has shot about the same number of them at .528.

Is Rui better than this player overall at scoring on 2-pointers? Or do you need to know the player's name to answer the question?


PIF, while your season comparisons are very insightful and goes to support the point that you're making about Rui not really being much improved between year 1 and year 2, I would like to know if your view of his last 9-10 games, roughly 33% of his total game played thus far, would indicate an improved and yet still improving player?

When nate pointed out a run of (at that time) 7 most recent games, I looked at the numbers in those games & agreed that, overall, they represented a nice level of improvement. I've discarded those numbers, but I do remember a TS% of (I think) .616 -- obviously that's a really good level.

For that reason, I wrote a post expressing my agreement.

Now... I don't have time to re-run the numbers right now, including the 3 most recent games, but from a glance at those 3...

the shooting efficiency has fallen. .547 TS% in those 3 games -- below his average on the season.

Just under 6.5 rebounds per 40 minutes in the 3 games. Again, that's well below his average this season -- which is pretty bad in itself.

That's 18 rebounds total. Of course, the argument will be "Russell Westbrook, etc. etc...." Did Russ also cause the 8 turnovers? The 0 steals?

So, no, in the last 3 games Rui hasn't kept up the 7-game improvement.

Zards & others will tell you that it's not all about numbers. The numbers don't tell the story. Unless, that is, the numbers look a lot better for seven games -- that's a different matter! Now, the numbers matter! :)

I've never seen a Wizards rookie get treated the way Rui is treated, but... so what? In the end, he's either going to get a whole lot better or he isn't going to be a good NBA player. Period. Everybody knows that no matter what they write here.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1766 » by Ruzious » Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:53 pm

Pif, you're trying too hard for no good purpose, and Rui's not a rookie.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1767 » by payitforward » Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:02 pm

wall_glizzy wrote:
payitforward wrote:I have to check something, I hope you won't mind: last year, Rui got to the line 3.5 times per 36 minutes, while this year, Rui has gotten to the line 3.6 times per 36 minutes.

Has Rui improved at getting to the line, stayed the same, or gotten worse? Which one is it?

Last year, Rui shot .829 from the line, while this year he's shot .769.

Has Rui improved as a free throw shooter, stayed the same, or gotten worse? Which one is it?

Here's another player, not going to mention his name: this year, he has gotten to the line 7.5 times per 36 minutes & has shot .893 from the line.

Is this player better at getting to the line than Rui? Or can't you answer that question without knowing his name? Is he better at shooting FTs than Rui -- or do you need to know his name before you can answer that question?

OTOH, this player has shot 2 pt. FGAs at .484, while Rui has shot about the same number of them at .528.

Is Rui better than this player overall at scoring on 2-pointers? Or do you need to know the player's name to answer the question?


Not sure if this was supposed to be rhetorical or what, but drawing free throws is best measured as a rate stat. That is, last year Rui drew .257 free throws for each field goal he attempted, and this year he's drawing .289. ...he's drawing fouls more often with the possessions that he does get. ...

This is completely correct -- my bad! Except it's .284 not .289.

This year, Rui is getting to the line on almost 3% more of his shots than last year.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1768 » by NatP4 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:02 pm

PIF is right, the efficiency has taken a dip in the last 3 games, but also, Rui has a defensive rating below 100 and an on/off differential of 19.1, which ranks 2nd best on the team behind Russell Westbrook(who has been ridiculously good). He’s been the 2nd best player on the team.

The fact remains, for 25% of the season, Rui has averaged 20&8 on 53/40/80 with improved defense. That’s pretty much what we all had hoped for.

Prime Tobias Harris averaged 20&8 on 50/40/85.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1769 » by payitforward » Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:05 pm

Ruzious wrote:Pif, you're trying too hard for no good purpose, and Rui's not a rookie.

That is correct; Rui is not a rookie. But, I'm not "trying" anything -- MDStar asked me a question, & I answered it.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1770 » by NatP4 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:06 pm

There’s a very real possibility that Rui would be pulling down 8-9 rebounds per36 without Westbrook stealing all the rebounds.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1771 » by payitforward » Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:37 pm

oh god....
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1772 » by MDStar » Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:07 pm

Does anyone see any similarities between Rui and Juwan? Looking at their Per 36 stats in their 2nd seasons, Rui is not that far off. That 96 season was Juwan's only All-Star appearance.


Howard (Year 2) Hachimura (Year 2)
FG% 0.489 0.481
3P% 0.308 0.337
2P% 0.49 0.525
TRB 7.2 6.7
AST 3.9 1.8
STL 0.7 0.8
BLK 0.4 0.1
TOV 3.3 1.4
PF 2.9 2.4
PTS 19.6 16.2
ORtg 104 109
DRtg 108 115
TS% 0.53 0.561
USG% 27 18.3
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1773 » by NatP4 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:24 pm

Harris vs Hachimura age 22 seasons:

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=hachiru01&p1yrfrom=2021&player_id2=harrito02&p2yrfrom=2015

You can see the difference in the VORP/BPM/D Rating figures. If Hachimura played defense like he has over the last month, for the full season, they would essentially be the exact same player.

When it’s all said and done, you probably get an average starter, which is pretty good compared to the rest of that draft class.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1774 » by WallToWall » Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:26 pm

NatP4 wrote:There’s a very real possibility that Rui would be pulling down 8-9 rebounds per36 without Westbrook stealing all the rebounds.
Rui doesn't have alpha dog personality on the court...not yet anyway. its the one thing I wish he would learn from Westbrook. Westbrook is not going to "let" you have a rebound, if he can get it himself. If, on the other hand, you can show that you're a more capable rebounder that him, then maybe he will. Maybe. Fact is, Westbrook is a PG that hangs near the rim to rebound, and he does it well. Its unconventional, but that doesn't make it wrong. I doubt Westbrook will change.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1775 » by Ruzious » Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:42 pm

payitforward wrote:oh god....

The reason you poopoo that isn't because it doesn't make sense - because it does make sense. It's because it messes up your statistical evaluations. And you go into the "Warning - does not compute" mode. Correct me if I'm right.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1776 » by nate33 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:43 pm

payitforward wrote:So, no, in the last 3 games Rui hasn't kept up the 7-game improvement.


That's because in the last 3 games, he hasn't had Bradley Beal to draw defensive attention. Rui isn't yet good enough of a shot creator to be the second option. Right now he is a third option. He still needs most of his shots to be in the flow of the offense or against a mismatch. He's not yet good enough to just create his own shot against a primary defender in a set defense with high efficiency. Few 2nd year players are.

But let's not diminish his scoring volume on mediocre efficiency. That's not easy either. How many guys in his draft class can do it other than Zion and Morant? My quick screen of the stats over the last 10 games show Jordan Poole scoring slightly more than Rui with slightly better efficiency, Nickeil Alexander-Walker scoring about the same as Rui with slightly less efficiency, and Zion killing everyone. That's it.

NBA.com doesn't have a single screen that combines scoring volume with TS%, so I had to make two screens. The first is guys who score at volume. The second is high usage guys ranked by TS%

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional/?sort=PTS&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Per36&DraftYear=2019&DateFrom=03%2F13%2F2021&CF=MIN*G*200:PLAYER_NAME*E*

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced/?sort=TS_PCT&dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=03%2F13%2F2021&DraftYear=2019&CF=MIN*G*20:USG_PCT*G*20
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1777 » by payitforward » Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:00 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:oh god....

The reason you poopoo that isn't because it doesn't make sense - because it does make sense. It's because it messes up your statistical evaluations. And you go into the "Warning - does not compute" mode. Correct me if I'm right.

Nah, sorry. Not right.

All references to what a player would do if... whatever... have the same value. Zero. Any player. Has nothing to do with Rui.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1778 » by Ruzious » Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:29 pm

payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:oh god....

The reason you poopoo that isn't because it doesn't make sense - because it does make sense. It's because it messes up your statistical evaluations. And you go into the "Warning - does not compute" mode. Correct me if I'm right.

Nah, sorry. Not right.

All references to what a player would do if... whatever... have the same value. Zero. Any player. Has nothing to do with Rui.

You proved my point.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1779 » by doclinkin » Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:37 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:The reason you poopoo that isn't because it doesn't make sense - because it does make sense. It's because it messes up your statistical evaluations. And you go into the "Warning - does not compute" mode. Correct me if I'm right.

Nah, sorry. Not right.

All references to what a player would do if... whatever... have the same value. Zero. Any player. Has nothing to do with Rui.

You proved my point.



Ha! :clown:
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1780 » by Ruzious » Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:45 pm

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