payitforward wrote:So, no, in the last 3 games Rui hasn't kept up the 7-game improvement.
That's because in the last 3 games, he hasn't had Bradley Beal to draw defensive attention. Rui isn't yet good enough of a shot creator to be the second option. Right now he is a third option. He still needs most of his shots to be in the flow of the offense or against a mismatch. He's not yet good enough to just create his own shot against a primary defender in a set defense with high efficiency. Few 2nd year players are.
But let's not diminish his scoring volume on mediocre efficiency. That's not easy either. How many guys in his draft class can do it other than Zion and Morant? My quick screen of the stats over the last 10 games ...
As I'm sure you are aware, if you know in advance what you want to prove, you can always find a dataset to prove it true. In this case, why would we measure comparative scoring over the last 10 games? B/c Rui had a string of better than usual games than usual? So we should look at other guys across the same stretch of time?
How about we measure over the season as a whole? Tell you what... I'll go look.
...Well that took 90 seconds. Let's just start with Keldon Johnson, a 6'5" guard-forward, who was taken #29 in the same draft in which Rui went #9. Two years younger than Rui.
The two guys have played almost exactly the same # of minutes this year -- But Johnson only played 300 minutes last year, so Rui has twice the experience.
As scorers this year, the 2 of them are very close. Johnson scores @ 1/3 point more than Rui per 40 minutes. Rui's TS% is @1.5% below average at his position; Johnson's is @1% lower than average at his position.
The rest isn't really close: Johnson's a 2-3 -- yet he gets slightly more defensive boards than Rui, he gets way more offensive boards than Rui, he blocks way more shots than Rui, & he gets more assists than Rui. Rui closes the gap a little by logging slightly more steals & slightly fewer fouls.
If we just look at how well guys have played overall -- i.e. rather than focusing on scoring whether efficient or inefficient -- it would be easy to add several more players taken well after Rui in the same draft who have been significantly better so far than Rui has been.
But, there would be no point to the exercise, just as there is no point to the exercise of demonstrating that, somehow, Rui increasing his scoring while lowering efficiency is evidence of what a good player he is. Every player in every league in every country on planet Earth will score more points if he takes more shots!
Rui is a 23 year old NBA player who has logged @2700 minutes in his first 2 years in the league. Has he been good so far? No. Is he good right now? No. Rui is a well below average NBA player. Will he be good some day? I hope so. & so do you. But, I don't know that he will be. & neither do you.
Most important: my pointing to the facts won't hold Rui back, & a bunch of fans on a message board blowing in his balloon won't accelerate his growth either.
Rinse & repeat with Deni Avdija -- I thought he'd be good right away. So far, he's been bad. So far, it looks like we'd have been a whole lot better off taking Haliburton this year & trading down last year to get Mr. Unnameable & Keldon Johnson.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.