Rui Hachimura

[9 and 20]

On offense, I remember Aldridge being good at that mid-range jump shot that Rui loves. Maybe that's where the comparison comes in? Neither was really a perimeter guy nor a low post guy.

On Rui's rebouding, I think that look at numbers with/without Russ were to gauge improvement, since it looks like he's playing more aggressively than last year, and part the whole thing with Rui is that since he started playing basketball rather late, he should (we hope) improve more than most guys his age from year to year. Last year, he played without Russ, who we assume has a major impact on rebounding. So, what are his rebounding numbers this year without Russ? It looks like they are better than last year.

[BearlyBallin]

...would Rui’s TRB% when Westbrook is off the court compared to other PF’s TRB% when their best rebounding guard is off the court be an appropriate comparison ?

Not that I know how to do it but I have to admit in my mind I’m curious to see those numbers.

You're right to point out that every PF in the league would see their TRB% improve to some extent if we discounted their minutes alongside whichever PG on their team rebounded the best. So you're not off the mark at all. However, the idea here is that Westbrook's rebounding is such an outlier for his position that even correcting for that you'd still see a disproportionate swing in the TRB% of Rui (or whoever else happens to be on the court with the Wizards).

The numbers are out there - I use a site called NBAWowy (with or without you) that allows you to filter player stats by whether they were sharing the court or playing without other specific players on the team. I believe Nate noted this was his original data source as well. It'd be a bit of a pain to run it for every team at this hour, so for now I'll leave you with this: https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2021_advanced.html
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Given this, I think it's fair to conclude that Russ has an outsized effect - many times over - on the rebounding of the wings and bigs that he shares the floor with, relative to other point guards. If someone's got some time and wants to run a bunch of queries on NBAWowy, though, I would be interested to see the exact numbers.

Thanks for answering. I must have an iPad that is too old or maybe I am too old but when I’ve tried to go to NBAWowy I get a message saying I can not connect to server. Frustrating...

I agree with your thinking, it had always felt obvious to me that removing Westbrook would improve Rui’s rebounding stats.

[BearlyBallin]

Nate & PIF, I’m not as knowledgeable about statistics as either of you. Therefore I apologize if this is totally wrong, but would Rui’s TRB% when Westbrook is off the court compared to other PF’s TRB% when their best rebounding guard is off the court be an appropriate comparison ?

Not that I know how to do it but I have to admit in my mind I’m curious to see those numbers.

Valid point, but... No guard has anywhere near the amount of rebounds that Westbrook gets. His 11.5 per 36 minutes crushes everyone. Even Ben Simmons gets only 8.3 per 36. James Harden is getting a career-high 8.4 this season, but his lifetime average is only 5.7. With Russ being so out of the realm, it's obvious that's going to have an effect on teammates, and just Watching The Games, you can see it - as he snatches balls away from his teammates. Nate's post of Rui's numbers with and without Westbrook was what was asked for, and when he provided it, that should have been enough to show everyone that Westbrook likely does significantly affect Rui's numbers. How much the effect is - is debatable - but whether or not there is an effect is not debatable.

Yes it always seemed obvious to me as well. Thanks for the input.

[dckingsfan]

Last year we were 28th in defensive rebounding. This year we are 15th.

Last year Rui's DRB% was 17.0, this year 16.5. I think he would improved year over year. And yes, watching the games - Westbrook takes rebounds from others.

Having said that - when I watch the games there are many times Rui is out of position for the defensive rebound, didn't box out appropriately or loses in the scrum.

[nate33]

IOW, we would expect any player to have somewhat different rebounding %s in different lineups. Thus, if one wants to compare Rui's rebounding % w/ & w/o Russ & use the results to compare him to other guys at the position, we need more than their overall % to create a meaningful comparison.

For that matter, how about Rui last year? Were there lineups in which he rebounded at a higher rate vs. others where his rate was lower?

That kind of information would actually tell us something about Rui's rebounding -- both whether one could conclude that he "is a fine rebounder" & whether one can conclude that he's actually improved this year (once we factor out Russ).

It's also worth mentioning that in your rush to WTF level discourse, you left out the sentence where I wrote that I was more than willing to accept that Russ was responsible for the decline in Rui's rebounding this year.

In fact, Rui's defensive rebounding % this year is only slightly down from last year (17% > 16.5%). But, his offensive rebounding % has been cut in half! Yet, Russ's astounding rebounding is almost entirely on the defensive end. So... why the decline in Rui's boards on the offensive end of the court? How does Russ impact that?

As well, this year Bradley Beal is playing most of his minutes with Russ. Yet, Brad's rebounding % is up from last year rather than down. Why no Westbrook effect in his case?

For that matter, last year we started Bryant at Center. For much of this year, it's been Lopez (though that's changed recently). Lopez is a far weaker rebounder than Bryant. More boards available.

I'm not suggesting there's some definitive explanation or even some definitive problem with Rui; but, before anyone concludes that Rui Hachimura is "a fine rebounder," the subjects above would need to some investigation & some thought.

If you have such a problem with my research on the matter, why don't you look at all this stuff yourself?

I'll help you out. Here is the rebounding numbers for the Wizards when Westbrook is on the floor:


And here they are when he is off:


If you look at TRB%, everyone except Len rebounds a lot better without Westbrook on the floor.
If you look at ORB%, everyone except Len is better without Westbrook. I think that's because defenses can't pack the lane when Westbrook is off.
If you look at DRB%, the Westbrook affect seems to hit the forwards hard (Hachimura, Avdija and Bertans) but nobody else. I think that's because the centers (Lopez and Bertans) occupy the opponent's offensive rebounders by boxing them out as they normally do, which typically leaves the rebounds to fall into the hands of the forwards, but when Westbrook is on the floor, he swoops in and jumps in front of Hachimura and Avdija to grab the defensive board himself.

What's critical to note is that the team as a whole also rebounds better when Westbrook isn't on the floor. The team TRB% is 48.4 when Westbrook is on, and 50.0 when he is off. Westbrook being a "good rebounder" isn't helping his team because he is taking rebounds from his teammates, not the other team. So it's not comparable to, say, Bobby Portis' rebounding numbers going up when Giannis is off the floor. The Bucks rebound better with Giannis on the floor because Giannis is taking rebounds from the other team.

The "Westbrook effect" is a wash with defensive rebounding. The team rebounds exactly the same with Westbrook on/off (which suggest that he is "stealing" defensive rebounds exclusively from his teammates). The team rebounds considerably better on the offensive glass without Westbrook, probably because offensive rebounding becomes next to impossible when teams pack the lane.

[NatP4]

Last 10 games per 36:

16.3 points
6.1 rebounds
1.5 assists
2.2 turnovers

51.8% TS.

His overall numbers have now dipped below his rookie year production.

[Shoe]

Rui was averaging 19/7 on 52% in his previous seven games before injury and in the seven games since he's returned he's averaging 9/4 on 40%. They've been trying to manage the knee soreness but it's time to rest him.

[dckingsfan]

Rui was averaging 19/7 on 52% in his previous seven games before injury and in the seven games since he's returned he's averaging 9/4 on 40%. They've been trying to manage the knee soreness but it's time to rest him.

Yeah, it takes two to six months to heal from long-term tendinopathy - my diagnosis

Seriously, I know they are chasing a play in spot but this could get serious if you don't give him a couple of months.

And, he really isn't contributing now...

Question: who do you move to the starting PF slot?

[DCZards]

Rui was averaging 19/7 on 52% in his previous seven games before injury and in the seven games since he's returned he's averaging 9/4 on 40%. They've been trying to manage the knee soreness but it's time to rest him.

Yeah, it takes two to six months to heal from long-term tendinopathy - my diagnosis

Seriously, I know they are chasing a play in spot but this could get serious if you don't give him a couple of months.

And, he really isn't contributing now...

Question: who do you move to the starting PF slot?

I’d probably start Jordan Bell at PF. His hustle, rebounding and D would set a nice early tone.

[dckingsfan]

Rui was averaging 19/7 on 52% in his previous seven games before injury and in the seven games since he's returned he's averaging 9/4 on 40%. They've been trying to manage the knee soreness but it's time to rest him.

Yeah, it takes two to six months to heal from long-term tendinopathy - my diagnosis

Seriously, I know they are chasing a play in spot but this could get serious if you don't give him a couple of months.

And, he really isn't contributing now...

Question: who do you move to the starting PF slot?

I’d probably start Jordan Bell at PF. His hustle, rebounding and D would set a nice early tone.

Hmmm... I don't know. He looked awfully lost last night. He rebounds and hustles but doesn't really play good D. And on the offensive side of the ball he clogs everything up and can't shoot. I think he is a break the glass when everyone goes down type of player.

Question since you are a Rui fan... do you think they should shut him down for the season?

[payitforward]

IOW, we would expect any player to have somewhat different rebounding %s in different lineups. Thus, if one wants to compare Rui's rebounding % w/ & w/o Russ & use the results to compare him to other guys at the position, we need more than their overall % to create a meaningful comparison.

For that matter, how about Rui last year? Were there lineups in which he rebounded at a higher rate vs. others where his rate was lower?

That kind of information would actually tell us something about Rui's rebounding -- both whether one could conclude that he "is a fine rebounder" & whether one can conclude that he's actually improved this year (once we factor out Russ).

It's also worth mentioning that in your rush to WTF level discourse, you left out the sentence where I wrote that I was more than willing to accept that Russ was responsible for the decline in Rui's rebounding this year.

In fact, Rui's defensive rebounding % this year is only slightly down from last year (17% > 16.5%). But, his offensive rebounding % has been cut in half! Yet, Russ's astounding rebounding is almost entirely on the defensive end. So... why the decline in Rui's boards on the offensive end of the court? How does Russ impact that?

As well, this year Bradley Beal is playing most of his minutes with Russ. Yet, Brad's rebounding % is up from last year rather than down. Why no Westbrook effect in his case?

For that matter, last year we started Bryant at Center. For much of this year, it's been Lopez (though that's changed recently). Lopez is a far weaker rebounder than Bryant. More boards available.

I'm not suggesting there's some definitive explanation or even some definitive problem with Rui; but, before anyone concludes that Rui Hachimura is "a fine rebounder," the subjects above would need to some investigation & some thought.

If you have such a problem with my research on the matter, why don't you look at all this stuff yourself?

I'll help you out. Here is the rebounding numbers for the Wizards when Westbrook is on the floor:


And here they are when he is off:


If you look at TRB%, everyone except Len rebounds a lot better without Westbrook on the floor.
If you look at ORB%, everyone except Len is better without Westbrook. I think that's because defenses can't pack the lane when Westbrook is off.
If you look at DRB%, the Westbrook affect seems to hit the forwards hard (Hachimura, Avdija and Bertans) but nobody else. I think that's because the centers (Lopez and Bertans) occupy the opponent's offensive rebounders by boxing them out as they normally do, which typically leaves the rebounds to fall into the hands of the forwards, but when Westbrook is on the floor, he swoops in and jumps in front of Hachimura and Avdija to grab the defensive board himself.

What's critical to note is that the team as a whole also rebounds better when Westbrook isn't on the floor. The team TRB% is 48.4 when Westbrook is on, and 50.0 when he is off. Westbrook being a "good rebounder" isn't helping his team because he is taking rebounds from his teammates, not the other team. So it's not comparable to, say, Bobby Portis' rebounding numbers going up when Giannis is off the floor. The Bucks rebound better with Giannis on the floor because Giannis is taking rebounds from the other team.

The "Westbrook effect" is a wash with defensive rebounding. The team rebounds exactly the same with Westbrook on/off (which suggest that he is "stealing" defensive rebounds exclusively from his teammates). The team rebounds considerably better on the offensive glass without Westbrook, probably because offensive rebounding becomes next to impossible when teams pack the lane.

This is interesting. It'll be informative to see how Gafford fits into these schema.

[nate33]

Rui was averaging 19/7 on 52% in his previous seven games before injury and in the seven games since he's returned he's averaging 9/4 on 40%. They've been trying to manage the knee soreness but it's time to rest him.

Yeah, it takes two to six months to heal from long-term tendinopathy - my diagnosis

Seriously, I know they are chasing a play in spot but this could get serious if you don't give him a couple of months.

And, he really isn't contributing now...

Question: who do you move to the starting PF slot?

I’d probably start Jordan Bell at PF. His hustle, rebounding and D would set a nice early tone.

Assuming Bertans is unavailable, I'd start Avdija at PF and play either Bonga or Mathews at SF alongside him. Brooks will probably start Neto. Need more scrappiness.

[DCZards]

Yeah, it takes two to six months to heal from long-term tendinopathy - my diagnosis

Seriously, I know they are chasing a play in spot but this could get serious if you don't give him a couple of months.

And, he really isn't contributing now...

Question: who do you move to the starting PF slot?

I’d probably start Jordan Bell at PF. His hustle, rebounding and D would set a nice early tone.

Hmmm... I don't know. He looked awfully lost last night. He rebounds and hustles but doesn't really play good D. And on the offensive side of the ball he clogs everything up and can't shoot. I think he is a break the glass when everyone goes down type of player.

Question since you are a Rui fan... do you think they should shut him down for the season?

Good point about Bell clogging up the middle.

Hard for me to make a call on shutting Rui down since I don’t know the extent of his injury.

[payitforward]

...On Rui's rebouding, I think that look at numbers with/without Russ were to gauge improvement, since it looks like he's playing more aggressively than last year, and part the whole thing with Rui is that since he started playing basketball rather late, he should (we hope) improve more than most guys his age from year to year. Last year, he played without Russ, who we assume has a major impact on rebounding. So, what are his rebounding numbers this year without Russ? It looks like they are better than last year.

I think this is a fair assessment. Rui was at 11.1% last year. This year he's at 13.1% w/o Russ on the floor. If we can assume that last year's rate was pretty much flat across the various lineups Rui was in, then we can see an improvement.

What we can't do is assume that Rui's rebounding % last year was "flat across the... lineups." Not that I'd expect the kind of delta caused by Russ's presence.

[dckingsfan]

Yeah, it takes two to six months to heal from long-term tendinopathy - my diagnosis

Seriously, I know they are chasing a play in spot but this could get serious if you don't give him a couple of months.

And, he really isn't contributing now...

Question: who do you move to the starting PF slot?

I’d probably start Jordan Bell at PF. His hustle, rebounding and D would set a nice early tone.

Assuming Bertans is unavailable, I'd start Avdija at PF and play either Bonga or Mathews at SF alongside him. Brooks will probably start Neto. Need more scrappiness.

Yeah, this would probably be the best move. Rotate Bonga, Mathews and Deni at the forward positions. Bring Bell in if everything falls apart - or (as you pointed out what will probably happen - a four guard lineup.

[payitforward]

In 6 games, we've only gotten Gafford 17 minutes a game. He played some PF for Chicago (says something I read...).

Why don't we start him at the 4 tonight? Or, at least give him minutes there. Learn something. If he doesn't do well, & we lose... helps the tank. If he excels & we win, Rui gets to rehab for as long as needed.

[nate33]

In 6 games, we've only gotten Gafford 17 minutes a game. He played some PF for Chicago (says something I read...).

Why don't we start him at the 4 tonight? Or, at least give him minutes there.

Spacing.

[dckingsfan]

In 6 games, we've only gotten Gafford 17 minutes a game. He played some PF for Chicago (says something I read...).

Why don't we start him at the 4 tonight? Or, at least give him minutes there.

Spacing.

yeah but... I think some minutes there would be fine. I would much rather see a bit of time with both Lopez and Gafford than a Ish, Westbrook, Neto, Beal + C lineup. Or at least I would like to see it as a change of pace.

Having said that, with no Len - I would think he would get 24ish minutes.

[dckingsfan]

Can we pick-up Mo Wagner?

[9 and 20]

In 6 games, we've only gotten Gafford 17 minutes a game. He played some PF for Chicago (says something I read...).

Why don't we start him at the 4 tonight? Or, at least give him minutes there.

Spacing.

yeah but... I think some minutes there would be fine. I would much rather see a bit of time with both Lopez and Gafford than a Ish, Westbrook, Neto, Beal + C lineup. Or at least I would like to see it as a change of pace.

Having said that, with no Len - I would think he would get 24ish minutes.

Gafford could probably play some minutes with Bryant next to him next year. I think it would be ugly next to Lopez or Len, though, especially if Westbrook is playing. Ish Smith can't really shoot either. Maybe, mayyyyybe next to Neto, Beal, and Bertans. But even then, I don't think it would work.