nate33 wrote:Oringher analyzed Hachmura, expecting to come to the same general negative conclusion as the consensus. But when he did his review, he came to the exact opposite conclusion. Basically, Oringher thinks Hachimura will be a very good defender and was, in fact, a very good defender at Gonzaga. He executed Gonzaga's scheme as it was supposed to be executed, leading them to a 33-4 record. Oringher apparently thinks Hachimura's defense is actually ahead of his offense.
I think Hachimura suffered more from the direct comparison to Clarke. Clarke's stats were so off the wall amazing that Hachimura looked pedestrian by comparison. When you look at Hachimura as a standalone prospect, though, he actually looks really good. He averaged 20/7/2 in 30 mpg on 59/42/74 split with a TS% of .639 and a USG% of 28.1 on a team that finished 33-4. Guys who can do that at the age of 20 (turned 21 in February) don't come along very often, regardless of if their defense is good or bad. And for defense, his defense wasn't bad, just not otherworldly amazing. He'll probably never be amazing on defense but he's more than fine and has the size, length and quickness that he isn't going to be exploitable in a decent system. People may have wanted other prospects, and that's totally understandable. Whether they did or didn't, Rui was and still is a fantastic prospect and just because internet mocks had him lower doesn't necessarily mean he was a reach.
I just think lots of onlookers, including online mocks, had a hard time putting Rui above Clarke, and if they were going to put Clarke in the late lottery or just outside of it like they usually did, they'd bump Rui a little lower. To explain dropping him so low, they couldn't point to offense since he was both better and younger than Clarke on offense and instead they fell back to defense which is a lot harder to quantify and therefore a reasonably easy target.
1. Neither nate, I_Like_Dirt, Zards nor I have any idea how Rui Hachimura will turn out.
2. Oringher has no idea how he'll turn out. The guys at Stepien who rate him much lower than Oringher does, they also have no idea how he will turn out.
No one knows how Rui Hachimura will turn out. What we do know is what he's done so far. & if a positive projection of his future requires us to explain away what he's done so far, that is not a good thing.
No one downgraded Rui because of Brandon Clarke's incredible numbers. These guys do this stuff for a living; they don't fall for obvious traps.
Rui Hachimura was a terrific scorer in college; that's obvious -- he posted over 26 points per 40 minutes at a T% of .639. That's extremely good! Obviously!
But, Dedric Lawson was also quite good -- he posted almost 24 points per 40- minutes at a TS% of .578 -- & he played against much tougher competition (if you believe basketball-reference.com).
The rest of their stats were virtually identical. Except that Dedric Lawson was by far the better rebounder -- by way far.
& Lawson wasn't drafted.
So, if we could stop saying that Rui was the obvious pick -- "a fantastic prospect" -- (especially since very few here thought he would be the pick!) that might be a good thing.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.