payitforward wrote:Their point of view is also irrelevant. What matters is only how you get the most value out of the draft.
If Rui Hachimura turns out to deliver more value than, say, trading w/ SA & taking the combination of Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson & some guy taken in R2 (e.g. Quinndary Weatherspoon), then it would have been a mistake to trade down. If he doesn't then it would have been a good idea to trade down.
If picking Rui turns out to deliver more value than the combination of Brandon Clarke & Grant Williams, or one of those two plus Dylan Windler & Carsen Edwards (either way via trading w/ the Celtics for #s 20 & 22), then it would have been a mistake to trade down. If he doesn't then it would have been a good idea to trade down.
Where they had Rui on their board is completely irrelevant. The fact that they have an idea doesn't mean it's a good idea.
Naturally, since what's done is done & I'm a Wizards fan, I hope Rui turns out to be an all star!
Hard disagree but we have to agree to disagree. If Rui is really graded as a tier 1 caliber player (as a hypothetical), and the drop off is as far as 2 or 3 tiers, then a trade down doesn't make much sense, even if there is historical data to back your case....
All you are saying is that if Rui turns out to be better overall than the guys you'd get in a trade down then Rui is better overall than the guys you'd get in a trade-down. Duh. That's saying... nothing!
But, no matter what, you don't want to take the position you are taking -- because, unless absolutely no one taken from 10 down in the draft turns out to be better than Rui Hachimura, it makes you wrong!
Obviously, we don't know what we'd have gotten in a trade-down, though we have some ideas. But, we do know that we could have gotten, e.g. the #10 pick plus... something! That's how the world works, after all.
One common trade scenario was our #9 to Boston for their #s 20-22. That trade would have netted us Brandon Clarke & Grant Williams. Happy to bet any amount of $$ that those guys combined are better than Rui.
It would also have netted us Brandon Clarke, either Dylan Windler or Keldon Johnson, & Carsen Edwards. Or, if you weren't convinced by Brandon Clarke, you can make that Grant Williams, Windler or Johnson, & Edwards.
I make that trade all day every day as often as I can. Still... Rui Hachimura might be better than all of them combined. Anything's possible. & wouldn't that be great!
But... I'd be willing to put money on the other direction.
Of course, who knows, every single one of them on both sides of the trade, from Rui to Edwards, might all turn out to be busts! Or everyone but Carsen Edwards, say.... & obviously that alone would justify the trade.
Kanyewest wrote:That being said, you are correct in stating that this draft will ultimately be judged by what happens.
Like most things in the world, you bet...!
Kanyewest wrote:By the way do you have any evidence that the Celtics were willing to give up that much to move up to #9. If it was indeed an optimal trade for the Wizards to trade down, it was probably more optimal for the Celtics to keep the picks. I believe they traded their 20th pick for more picks, and parlayed that to dump salary on Phoenix to sign Kemba while receiving a protected first rounder.
Obviously, neither I nor anyone else could say for sure. But, it does seem likely. Ainge was known to want to trade one of the picks, & what he got wasn't better than getting #9. & there were other deals available as well.
Anyway, getting to be ancient history. So, we'll pay no attention when Brandon Clarke becomes a star, Grant Williams becomes an above average starter, Keldon Williams does too. Dylan Windler becomes a productive journeyman and so does Carsen Edwards.
Instead, we'll be all in on Rui Hachimura! Here's hoping he's the next Kawhi Leonard! Feel free to mock me if so.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.