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Rui Hachimura

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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#601 » by nate33 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:04 pm

prime1time wrote:These interviews for a Japanese audience are fascinating. Way different than your normal NBA interview.
He says his mean goal is to get his body ready for the NBA season. He's working out/lifting weights twice a day and is also working on his shooting and playing basketball in between. All in all, he's just a locked in.

Man, that's a lot of weightlifting!

It sounds like the goal is to get him to be a full time PF rather than a combo forward. In the long run, that will probably be for the best, but in the short term, his bully ball game might be more effective against small forward defenders.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#602 » by JWizmentality » Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:43 pm

nate33 wrote:
prime1time wrote:These interviews for a Japanese audience are fascinating. Way different than your normal NBA interview.
He says his mean goal is to get his body ready for the NBA season. He's working out/lifting weights twice a day and is also working on his shooting and playing basketball in between. All in all, he's just a locked in.

Man, that's a lot of weightlifting!

It sounds like the goal is to get him to be a full time PF rather than a combo forward. In the long run, that will probably be for the best, but in the short term, his bully ball game might be more effective against small forward defenders.


I'm a little worried about too much bulking. He's already a mac truck, seeing how he defended Zion in their matchup. I hope he retains his mobility and doesn't make John Wall's mistake.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#603 » by Ruzious » Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:34 pm

I think what he's doing is basically what Giannis did when he was a rookie - work harder than everyone else. Giannis was drafted as a 19 year old at 6'9/6'10 and 210 lbs. Now he's 6'11 and a sculpted 245ish. But not everyone can put in that kind of work. And Rui had to pull out of the international competition because he was basically exhausted. I think during the season, he's gonna have to cut out the weight lifting - so I expect he'll lose some bulk through the season - perhaps gaining quickness as the season goes on.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#604 » by Illmatic12 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:37 pm

nate33 wrote:I had a thought the other day when thinking of possible NBA comps to Rui Hachimura. Why not Jason Tatum?

Think about it. They're both 6-8 with large wingspans (Tatum's is 6-11, Rui's is 7-2). They both thrive in the midrange. They both were successful scorers in college with some questions about their defense and their ability to be effective within the context of a team system. Tatum was a more willing 3-point shooter in college, but not necessarily a much better one. And FIBA Rui seems to be a pretty competent 3-point shooter as well. The big difference between the two is that Hachimura is 20 pounds heavier and stronger than rookie Tatum and he is 2 years older. Here's a comparison of their college stats:

Image

Tatum went on to have a very productive rookie year and was runner up ROY behind Simmons. To be fair, part of Tatum's success in his rookie season was due to unsustainably hot 3P shooting (43%). In Tatum's somewhat disappointing 2nd NBA season (disappointing because it wasn't much better than his rookie season), Tatum's 3P shooting was a more believable 37%, but his rebounding improved thanks to more strength, and the rest of his game improved incrementally due to experience.

Hachimura seems even more NBA ready to me given his more developed body. I don't see why he can't have a rookie season roughly equivalent to Tatum's 2nd season. It might take him a couple of months to adapt to the speed of the NBA game, but once it slows down a bit for him, I think he'll be quite good. I really hope Brooks makes sure to give him 24-30 minutes a night and play through his mistakes.

Interesting comp. They’re basically the exact same age (Rui is 3 weeks older) although obviously took different paths to get to the league.

Main difference for me is perimeter skills. Hachimura has a better body and functional strength and excels at finishing inside, but still looks a bit tentative creating from the perimeter. Tatum is weaker but a better ballhandler with a better outside shot. Watching Tatum in FIBA he’s developed the ability to at least run a rudimentary PnR , and Boston would do well to develop him more there. This is the sort of thing I mean:

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I’ve never seen Hachimura use a high ball screen, at least not that I can recall (and I watched all of his SL and FIBA). Maybe he just hasn’t been asked to do it who knows, but if he can’t incorporate that into his game it will cap his ceiling as an offensive initiator.


Rui can still be a very good player in his current mold, but expanding from being a PnR roll man to PnR ballhandler (ala Siakam) would take him to the next level. However I have no idea if the Wiz plan to develop him that way ..
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#605 » by DCZards » Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:51 pm

nate33 wrote:
Tatum went on to have a very productive rookie year and was runner up ROY behind Simmons.


Donovan Mitchell was ROY runner up. Tatum had the third most votes.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#606 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 26, 2019 1:27 am

Interesting.... Plus, they are virtually exactly the same age -- Rui was born 3 days before Tatum.

edit: make that weeks not days older -- plus illmatic had already mentioned the fact (the correct one!)
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#607 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 26, 2019 1:28 am

DCZards wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Tatum went on to have a very productive rookie year and was runner up ROY behind Simmons.

Donovan Mitchell was ROY runner up. Tatum had the third most votes.

I thought Mitchell was ROY.

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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#608 » by prime1time » Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:30 am

Everyone should listen to the podcast with Beal where he talks about Rui.
https://art19.com/shows/wizards-tipoff
Starts around 8:40. But Beal fully endorses the Rui Kawhi comparison. Not to say that Rui's that good right now but that he has major potential. Beal also says that Rui can guard 1-4 and maybe even 1-5. The whole interview is good also. Beal also says that Rui's a good shooter.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#609 » by prime1time » Wed Oct 2, 2019 4:13 am

Really looking forward to these pre-season games to see how the team uses Rui. With all the injuries, I expect Rui to get a ton of PT. Rui offensively, will be fine. But the big question for Rui will be he his defense. If he can guard 2's, 3's and 4's adequately, he's going to be such a weapon. He'll struggle against top scoring pg's like Trae Young, Lillard and Steph, but I think he'll be a better defender than Doncic for example.

Depending on who he can guard, it could really set us up long term. The ability to play Rui at the 3, especially if he commits to rebounding good really help with our rebounding problems. And offensively Rui is so strong, that if we throw it into the low post against the average small forward, Rui should be able to win that matchup. Listening to Rui's press conferences, one thing he mentioned was increased spacing. I see the increased spacing as being really beneficial to Rui. So many moves in the mid-post and with triple-threat jab and drive he can get to the hoop in one dribble.

With no one to really limit his minutes in pre-season I think he'll get every chance to start. And I haven't seen any reason why he shouldn't. I also haven't seen any reason why he won't be succesful. I think he's going to score from day 1. Offensively I see high teens to low 20s. Something like 18 ppg, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 1 block. The key numbers to focus on are turnovers, ft attempts, 3pt attempts, 3pt percentage and his overall efficiency. To be honest, 20-24 points wouldn't surprise but that's only if he's knocking down multiple 3's a game.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#610 » by badinage » Wed Oct 2, 2019 1:16 pm

Maybe in three years. Rookies just don’t come in to the league and post those kinds of numbers immediately, apart from a handful of guys like James and Anthony, etc. He has to get stronger and learn defenses and learn to be consistent, etc.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#611 » by nate33 » Wed Oct 2, 2019 1:20 pm

prime1time wrote:Really looking forward to these pre-season games to see how the team uses Rui. With all the injuries, I expect Rui to get a ton of PT. Rui offensively, will be fine. But the big question for Rui will be he his defense. If he can guard 2's, 3's and 4's adequately, he's going to be such a weapon. He'll struggle against top scoring pg's like Trae Young, Lillard and Steph, but I think he'll be a better defender than Doncic for example.

Depending on who he can guard, it could really set us up long term. The ability to play Rui at the 3, especially if he commits to rebounding good really help with our rebounding problems. And offensively Rui is so strong, that if we throw it into the low post against the average small forward, Rui should be able to win that matchup. Listening to Rui's press conferences, one thing he mentioned was increased spacing. I see the increased spacing as being really beneficial to Rui. So many moves in the mid-post and with triple-threat jab and drive he can get to the hoop in one dribble.

With no one to really limit his minutes in pre-season I think he'll get every chance to start. And I haven't seen any reason why he shouldn't. I also haven't seen any reason why he won't be succesful. I think he's going to score from day 1. Offensively I see high teens to low 20s. Something like 18 ppg, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 1 block. The key numbers to focus on are turnovers, ft attempts, 3pt attempts, 3pt percentage and his overall efficiency. To be honest, 20-24 points wouldn't surprise but that's only if he's knocking down multiple 3's a game.

20-24 points is only possible if he plays 34+ minutes a game. Rookies almost never play that much because coaches don't trust them on defense. I think 20-24 points per 36 minutes is very possible, but his actual per game average will be lower.

I agree with your main point that Rui should be a capable volume scorer right from the start - particularly if he is playing against 2nd units. The bottom line is that he can get off midrange shots whenever he wants. The question is, will he score 20 points per 36 minutes on a TS% of 55%, which would be a very successful year; or will he score 18 points per 36 on a TS% of 49% because it's real hard to score efficiently from midrange.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#612 » by payitforward » Wed Oct 2, 2019 5:51 pm

I think you nailed it, nate.

Basically, anything we've seen Rui be really good at, NBA defenses will try to take away from him; usually they can do it successfully. How good he is right away will depend on how he adjusts to that -- different ways to get that midrange he's good at, solidifying his 3 point shot, & then just learning what he'll have to do on & off the ball to get to those opportunities.

It'll take some time -- how not? But, he's a gifted kid; he has a great chance to become a really good player.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#613 » by I_Like_Dirt » Wed Oct 2, 2019 5:59 pm

I'm not sure how he'll do in his rookie season but I'm not really concerned about Rui's efficiency. He hasn't done anything to suggest he isn't going to be efficient. He gets to the line a lot and hits his FTs at a reasonable rate. That alone should keep him at a reasonable efficiency with an opportunity to become extremely efficient should he start hitting more 3s.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#614 » by prime1time » Wed Oct 2, 2019 8:11 pm

payitforward wrote:I think you nailed it, nate.

Basically, anything we've seen Rui be really good at, NBA defenses will try to take away from him; usually they can do it successfully. How good he is right away will depend on how he adjusts to that -- different ways to get that midrange he's good at, solidifying his 3 point shot, & then just learning what he'll have to do on & off the ball to get to those opportunities.

It'll take some time -- how not? But, he's a gifted kid; he has a great chance to become a really good player.

Maybe, but the things Rui's good at the league most defenses try to give up. Also, Rui will be the 2nd option at best. Teams will be coming in trying to stop Brad.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#615 » by prime1time » Wed Oct 2, 2019 8:16 pm

nate33 wrote:
prime1time wrote:Really looking forward to these pre-season games to see how the team uses Rui. With all the injuries, I expect Rui to get a ton of PT. Rui offensively, will be fine. But the big question for Rui will be he his defense. If he can guard 2's, 3's and 4's adequately, he's going to be such a weapon. He'll struggle against top scoring pg's like Trae Young, Lillard and Steph, but I think he'll be a better defender than Doncic for example.

Depending on who he can guard, it could really set us up long term. The ability to play Rui at the 3, especially if he commits to rebounding good really help with our rebounding problems. And offensively Rui is so strong, that if we throw it into the low post against the average small forward, Rui should be able to win that matchup. Listening to Rui's press conferences, one thing he mentioned was increased spacing. I see the increased spacing as being really beneficial to Rui. So many moves in the mid-post and with triple-threat jab and drive he can get to the hoop in one dribble.

With no one to really limit his minutes in pre-season I think he'll get every chance to start. And I haven't seen any reason why he shouldn't. I also haven't seen any reason why he won't be succesful. I think he's going to score from day 1. Offensively I see high teens to low 20s. Something like 18 ppg, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 1 block. The key numbers to focus on are turnovers, ft attempts, 3pt attempts, 3pt percentage and his overall efficiency. To be honest, 20-24 points wouldn't surprise but that's only if he's knocking down multiple 3's a game.

20-24 points is only possible if he plays 34+ minutes a game. Rookies almost never play that much because coaches don't trust them on defense. I think 20-24 points per 36 minutes is very possible, but his actual per game average will be lower.

I agree with your main point that Rui should be a capable volume scorer right from the start - particularly if he is playing against 2nd units. The bottom line is that he can get off midrange shots whenever he wants. The question is, will he score 20 points per 36 minutes on a TS% of 55%, which would be a very successful year; or will he score 18 points per 36 on a TS% of 49% because it's real hard to score efficiently from midrange.

I agree that minutes will be the big factor, but here's the thing. We simply don't have the talent not to play him big minutes. He's going to be our small ball 5, and he'll play the 3 and the 4. Bertans is a disaster defensively. And Troy Brown Jr and CJ Miles are injured.He's going to be given every opportunity this preseason to get minutes and I haven't seen anything to suggest that he won't be on the floor. So I fully stand by post. If Rui's going to make 2+ 3's a game, I'd expect him to average around 20-24 points.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#616 » by nate33 » Wed Oct 2, 2019 8:29 pm

prime1time wrote:
nate33 wrote:
prime1time wrote:Really looking forward to these pre-season games to see how the team uses Rui. With all the injuries, I expect Rui to get a ton of PT. Rui offensively, will be fine. But the big question for Rui will be he his defense. If he can guard 2's, 3's and 4's adequately, he's going to be such a weapon. He'll struggle against top scoring pg's like Trae Young, Lillard and Steph, but I think he'll be a better defender than Doncic for example.

Depending on who he can guard, it could really set us up long term. The ability to play Rui at the 3, especially if he commits to rebounding good really help with our rebounding problems. And offensively Rui is so strong, that if we throw it into the low post against the average small forward, Rui should be able to win that matchup. Listening to Rui's press conferences, one thing he mentioned was increased spacing. I see the increased spacing as being really beneficial to Rui. So many moves in the mid-post and with triple-threat jab and drive he can get to the hoop in one dribble.

With no one to really limit his minutes in pre-season I think he'll get every chance to start. And I haven't seen any reason why he shouldn't. I also haven't seen any reason why he won't be succesful. I think he's going to score from day 1. Offensively I see high teens to low 20s. Something like 18 ppg, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 1 block. The key numbers to focus on are turnovers, ft attempts, 3pt attempts, 3pt percentage and his overall efficiency. To be honest, 20-24 points wouldn't surprise but that's only if he's knocking down multiple 3's a game.

20-24 points is only possible if he plays 34+ minutes a game. Rookies almost never play that much because coaches don't trust them on defense. I think 20-24 points per 36 minutes is very possible, but his actual per game average will be lower.

I agree with your main point that Rui should be a capable volume scorer right from the start - particularly if he is playing against 2nd units. The bottom line is that he can get off midrange shots whenever he wants. The question is, will he score 20 points per 36 minutes on a TS% of 55%, which would be a very successful year; or will he score 18 points per 36 on a TS% of 49% because it's real hard to score efficiently from midrange.

I agree that minutes will be the big factor, but here's the thing. We simply don't have the talent not to play him big minutes. He's going to be our small ball 5, and he'll play the 3 and the 4. Bertans is a disaster defensively. And Troy Brown Jr and CJ Miles are injured.He's going to be given every opportunity this preseason to get minutes and I haven't seen anything to suggest that he won't be on the floor. So I fully stand by post. If Rui's going to make 2+ 3's a game, I'd expect him to average around 20-24 points.

20 points per game would be an incredible feat.

In the last 8 seasons, a grand total of 2 rookies have managed to average 20 points or more per game: Donovan Mitchell and Luka Doncic. Mitchell played 33.4 minutes and Doncic played 32.2 minutes.

If you go back a bit further, Blake Griffin averaged 20+ 9 years ago and Tyreke Evans did so 10 years ago, but they played 38.0 and 37.2 minutes respectively. Nobody plays more than 35 minutes a game anymore.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#617 » by payitforward » Wed Oct 2, 2019 8:52 pm

:)

As a rookie, Bradley Beal played 31 minutes a game. He averaged 14 points per game. Now, obviously, Bradley Beal is no Rui Hachimura, but....
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#618 » by payitforward » Wed Oct 2, 2019 8:59 pm

That year, btw, his 3d in the league, John Wall played just under 33 minutes a game. He averaged 18.5 ppg.

Of course, that was his 3d season: as a rookie, playing almost 38 minutes a game, he averaged under 13.5 ppg.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#619 » by DCZards » Wed Oct 2, 2019 9:59 pm

I'd expect Rui to average around 12-14ppg, maybe 16 if he gets the minutes. What I don't want to see happen is for Hachimura to play more than 25-30 minutes a game, at least at the outset.

College ball and pro ball are two very different animals when it comes to the travel, number/frequency of games and the physicality. I'd hate to see Rui get worn down (maybe even injured) as a result of asking too much of him too soon.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#620 » by prime1time » Thu Oct 3, 2019 12:06 am

DCZards wrote:I'd expect Rui to average around 12-14ppg per game, maybe 16 if he gets the minutes. What I don't want to see happen is for Hachimura to play more than 25-30 minutes a game, at least at the outset.

College ball and pro ball are two very different animals when it comes to the travel, number/frequency of games and the physicality. I'd hate to see Rui get worn down (maybe even injured) as a result of asking too much of him too soon.

Idk, I just don't see it. If you want to make an argument based on load management that he shouldn't be getting the minutes fine. But if you're going to look at our roster and tell me that he shouldn't be playing starter minutes I have to ask for who should be getting the minutes over him. What's our rotation look like right now?

PG Smith Robinson
SG Beal Anderson
SF Bertans Rui Schofield Bogna
PF Rui
C Bryant Rui Wagner Mahimi

Feel free to correct that if I'm wrong. Now Brooks has already come out and said that Rui will be the small ball 5. He has also said that he expects Rui to play the 3 and the 4. Brown Jr. is injured. CJ Miles is injured. And even when they come back it's going to take time to get back into game shape. So in all likelihood this is the roster that we are starting the season with vs. the Mavs on October 23rd. If this is the roster we have. Who will be getting the shots? Is Beal going to take 30 shots a game? Bryant? He can't create. Bertans can't create. It is obviously going to fall on Rui to shoulder a big load offensively. Personally, I think he has already has the skills to excel in that scoring role and I think when players come back, they are going to come back and fit into the system we have in place. And even when Brown Jr. and CJ Miles do come back, neither of those guys can create offense.

PG Thomas Smith Robinson
SG Beal Anderson
SF Brown. Jr Rui CJ Miles Schofield Bogna
PF Bertans Rui
C Bryant Rui Wagner Mahimi

I guess this kind of roster is a possible, if you want to limit Rui's minutes as much as possible, but even then he's still going to get substantial minutes. And there will still be a lot of shots to take. Portis, Parker and Satoransky took a lot of shots. Combined they come out to about 31 shots a game. IT will take some of those shots and an improved Brown Jr. and Bryant will also take more shots. But there are a ton of shots to be had on this team. And a lot of them will go to Rui. To be honest I'm surprised I'm getting so much push back. Kyle Kuzma averaged 16 ppg as a rookie. Lauri Markkannen averaged 15 ppg as a rookie. And those teams had more shot creators than the Wizards. For better or for worse, Rui will get every opportunity to score on this team. And unlike some guys in the past, cough Otto Porter cough, he's not going to shy away from those shots.

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