Rui Hachimura

[WallToWall]

Just when I was getting high on the guy...back down to earth. I suppose he was due for a bad game. Lets see how he bounces back.

[tontoz]

That was definitely a rookie moment game for Rui. He got stripped several times going up for a shot, blocked once and a couple of his finishes inside looked very awkward.

[prime1time]

No path to success is smooth. Every great player failed. It was never a question of if Rui would have a bad game but how he would bounce back. So let's give him a chance to bounce back before we draw any judgments.

[prime1time]

Also, the lost balls are interesting in that he's getting by defenders initially but he loses the ball subsequently. That's not a hard fix to make. Look at a guy like James Harden. He's learned by extending the ball and timing the rise of his arm he can actually draw fouls. Those kind of plays are really desperation moves. All Rui needs to do is be stronger with the ball and those turnovers will become ft attempts. I'd also like to see him dunk more. He can dunk off a straight vertical so there's really no excuse for not dunking in traffic.

[Illmatic12]

In his postgame Beal said he told the team they needed to start dunking the ball more - a comment that I think was primarily meant for Rui. He has a nice floater game but the NBA is a grown mans league, you can’t lolligag around in the paint . Try to dunk it every time and either you’ll finish the play or they’ll foul you. It’s all about understanding NBA athleticism and also the officiating.

It’s funny , you can see he’s sort of like a computer that updates in real-time. He had a funny “Welcome to the NBA” exchange during the OKC game:

@2min Rui goes up and gets blocked by SGA (6’6 point guard with a 7’0 wingspan .. Im guessing he never saw athletes like that in the Mountain West conference)

@2:15 he gets blocked again and SGA jokingly goes “why do you keep doing the same thing?” and a clearly frustrated Rui mutters “that was a foul!”

@ 6:53 now were in the 4th quarter, Rui catches and rolls to the rim then sees SGA coming to contest, this time he takes off with two hands like Stromile Swift and tries to put that man in a body bag

Watch on YouTube

It just shows what this rookie year will be like for Rui. He will have bad games and bad moments, but he’s a fast learner and usually adjusts quickly . As good as he is now, I can’t wait to see what happens once he’s played an 82 game schedule and taken his mental notes of every team/opponent . He’ll come back in his sophomore season as a different monster.

You see that with the guys like Giannis and Siakam who started bball late, they don’t actually know what they’re capable of doing on a basketball court at first , since they didn’t grow up watching/playing the game. Giannis was timid his first few years then the lightbulb went off in his head and he realized “wait, so I can just like... dunk the ball .. every single time? And no one can stop me?” And the rest was history

[pinkman7382]

A few observations from the first 5 games :

- Rui's shot looks different from summer league. He isn't extending the ball as far out as he did before. His shot should keep improving with time. He's been blocked several times around the basket. Brooks mentioned this as well.
- He is looking to shoot. Will pass occasionally but is not a willing passer yet. He needs to learn to pass out of double teams
- Defensively, he's been ok. He needs to get better at staying in front of his guy. There were times at Gonzaga he looked completely out of position which hasn't happened as often here. He hasn't fouled a lot which could be a good sign or could mean he's not being as aggressive
- His STL and BLK numbers are worrisome. Rookie forwards with STL and BLKS under 1.0 per 100 poss don't pan out well in the nba. This was a concern for him coming out of Gonzaga. Keep an eye on this.

[Mizerooskie]

A few observations from the first 5 games :

- Rui's shot looks different from summer league. He isn't extending the ball as far out as he did before. His shot should keep improving with time. He's been blocked several times around the basket. Brooks mentioned this as well.
- He is looking to shoot. Will pass occasionally but is not a willing passer yet. He needs to learn to pass out of double teams
- Defensively, he's been ok. He needs to get better at staying in front of his guy. There were times at Gonzaga he looked completely out of position which hasn't happened as often here. He hasn't fouled a lot which could be a good sign or could mean he's not being as aggressive
- His STL and BLK numbers are worrisome. Rookie forwards with STL and BLKS under 1.0 per 100 poss don't pan out well in the nba. This was a concern for him coming out of Gonzaga. Keep an eye on this.

Interesting. Do you have a link to the data for this? I'd love to take a look.

[pinkman7382]

A few observations from the first 5 games :

- Rui's shot looks different from summer league. He isn't extending the ball as far out as he did before. His shot should keep improving with time. He's been blocked several times around the basket. Brooks mentioned this as well.
- He is looking to shoot. Will pass occasionally but is not a willing passer yet. He needs to learn to pass out of double teams
- Defensively, he's been ok. He needs to get better at staying in front of his guy. There were times at Gonzaga he looked completely out of position which hasn't happened as often here. He hasn't fouled a lot which could be a good sign or could mean he's not being as aggressive
- His STL and BLK numbers are worrisome. Rookie forwards with STL and BLKS under 1.0 per 100 poss don't pan out well in the nba. This was a concern for him coming out of Gonzaga. Keep an eye on this.

Interesting. Do you have a link to the data for this? I'd love to take a look.

[pinkman7382]

A few observations from the first 5 games :

- Rui's shot looks different from summer league. He isn't extending the ball as far out as he did before. His shot should keep improving with time. He's been blocked several times around the basket. Brooks mentioned this as well.
- He is looking to shoot. Will pass occasionally but is not a willing passer yet. He needs to learn to pass out of double teams
- Defensively, he's been ok. He needs to get better at staying in front of his guy. There were times at Gonzaga he looked completely out of position which hasn't happened as often here. He hasn't fouled a lot which could be a good sign or could mean he's not being as aggressive
- His STL and BLK numbers are worrisome. Rookie forwards with STL and BLKS under 1.0 per 100 poss don't pan out well in the nba. This was a concern for him coming out of Gonzaga. Keep an eye on this.

Interesting. Do you have a link to the data for this? I'd love to take a look.

yeah it's here. http://bkref.com/tiny/FgiyW

[I_Like_Dirt]

A few observations from the first 5 games :

- Rui's shot looks different from summer league. He isn't extending the ball as far out as he did before. His shot should keep improving with time. He's been blocked several times around the basket. Brooks mentioned this as well.
- He is looking to shoot. Will pass occasionally but is not a willing passer yet. He needs to learn to pass out of double teams
- Defensively, he's been ok. He needs to get better at staying in front of his guy. There were times at Gonzaga he looked completely out of position which hasn't happened as often here. He hasn't fouled a lot which could be a good sign or could mean he's not being as aggressive
- His STL and BLK numbers are worrisome. Rookie forwards with STL and BLKS under 1.0 per 100 poss don't pan out well in the nba. This was a concern for him coming out of Gonzaga. Keep an eye on this.

Box plus minus relies entirely on box scores. Of course someone who doesn't stuff the box score with blocks and steals is going to show up lower on those rankings. Even basketball reference, in its explanation of BPM admits that stuff like rebounds, blocks and steals are likely overvalued in the equation. It creates a relatively linear equation that relies incredibly high on block%, steal%, orb% and drb% as collectively a rather massive component of the equation.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html

The thing is, that was likely more accurate several years ago. Still not perfect, but when there was a higher degree of one-on-one matchups, either you got the ball or your opponent had it, or you scored or your opponent stopped you. Basketball was never truly such a one-on-one game, though, and it's become much more of a thing in the modern NBA. Changes to the understanding of the game and the game itself have led teams to recognize that there is value to actions that aren't counted in box score stats. They're starting to understand that if they rebound as a team, they'll get more rebounds collectively and it doesn't necessarily matter who gets the rebound so long as everyone plays their part. They're also understanding that there is value to getting back on defense rather than going for an offensive board and it isn't an automatic win for either one, though statistically it's always better to go for the rebound.

Take a look at that list and see just how many of those examples are from the last 5 years or so. There are very few exceptions and one of them is Walter Hermann who was oddly effective despite his extreme limitations because of his quality fundamentals. You have 4 cases from before 2012 and 21 from afterwards.

It's why you see stuff like Thomas Bryant having a higher BPM than Beal and Hachimura this season while also have much, much worse on/off numbers. They all have bad on/off numbers because the Wizards are getting torched in general and making runs when other teams ease up a bit but Bryant's are absolutely dreadful. Bryant is getting box score roles that don't automatically correspond to on-court success. Anyone who has watched Mitchell Robinson this season will understand that he's not as good as Ben Wallace but BPM would have you believe he's been better than any Ben Wallace season ever so far.

All that said, this isn't actually to discredit BPM. I still think BPM is a valuable stat. It's just to point out that there needs to be an understanding of what a stat is actually saying. It really comes down to the role a team wants. In a vacuum, lots of blocks and steals are a good thing. What teams need, though, is fundamentals that lead to a capacity for blocks and steals. Given a choice for one or the other, teams are starting to increasingly choosing fundamentals over blocks and steals. Fundamentals over time can lead to more blocks and steals but they can also lead to less if a player is getting them from gambling. I'm not particularly worried about Rui in that sense. I just don't think he's ever going to be a shut-down defender or anything like that. I do think he can fit in just fine in a team defensive system, which matters quite a bit.

And the biggest elephant in the room I left hanging there was sample size, which is a fair point, though it holds in general in larger sample sizes with different players. It's just that Rui doesn't actually have a large sample size in the NBA right now to go by and we don't have on-offs for him in college, either.

[Jamaaliver]

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[pinkman7382]

A few observations from the first 5 games :

- Rui's shot looks different from summer league. He isn't extending the ball as far out as he did before. His shot should keep improving with time. He's been blocked several times around the basket. Brooks mentioned this as well.
- He is looking to shoot. Will pass occasionally but is not a willing passer yet. He needs to learn to pass out of double teams
- Defensively, he's been ok. He needs to get better at staying in front of his guy. There were times at Gonzaga he looked completely out of position which hasn't happened as often here. He hasn't fouled a lot which could be a good sign or could mean he's not being as aggressive
- His STL and BLK numbers are worrisome. Rookie forwards with STL and BLKS under 1.0 per 100 poss don't pan out well in the nba. This was a concern for him coming out of Gonzaga. Keep an eye on this.

Box plus minus relies entirely on box scores. Of course someone who doesn't stuff the box score with blocks and steals is going to show up lower on those rankings. Even basketball reference, in its explanation of BPM admits that stuff like rebounds, blocks and steals are likely overvalued in the equation. It creates a relatively linear equation that relies incredibly high on block%, steal%, orb% and drb% as collectively a rather massive component of the equation.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html

The thing is, that was likely more accurate several years ago. Still not perfect, but when there was a higher degree of one-on-one matchups, either you got the ball or your opponent had it, or you scored or your opponent stopped you. Basketball was never truly such a one-on-one game, though, and it's become much more of a thing in the modern NBA. Changes to the understanding of the game and the game itself have led teams to recognize that there is value to actions that aren't counted in box score stats. They're starting to understand that if they rebound as a team, they'll get more rebounds collectively and it doesn't necessarily matter who gets the rebound so long as everyone plays their part. They're also understanding that there is value to getting back on defense rather than going for an offensive board and it isn't an automatic win for either one, though statistically it's always better to go for the rebound.

Take a look at that list and see just how many of those examples are from the last 5 years or so. There are very few exceptions and one of them is Walter Hermann who was oddly effective despite his extreme limitations because of his quality fundamentals. You have 4 cases from before 2012 and 21 from afterwards.

It's why you see stuff like Thomas Bryant having a higher BPM than Beal and Hachimura this season while also have much, much worse on/off numbers. They all have bad on/off numbers because the Wizards are getting torched in general and making runs when other teams ease up a bit but Bryant's are absolutely dreadful. Bryant is getting box score roles that don't automatically correspond to on-court success. Anyone who has watched Mitchell Robinson this season will understand that he's not as good as Ben Wallace but BPM would have you believe he's been better than any Ben Wallace season ever so far.

All that said, this isn't actually to discredit BPM. I still think BPM is a valuable stat. It's just to point out that there needs to be an understanding of what a stat is actually saying. It really comes down to the role a team wants. In a vacuum, lots of blocks and steals are a good thing. What teams need, though, is fundamentals that lead to a capacity for blocks and steals. Given a choice for one or the other, teams are starting to increasingly choosing fundamentals over blocks and steals. Fundamentals over time can lead to more blocks and steals but they can also lead to less if a player is getting them from gambling. I'm not particularly worried about Rui in that sense. I just don't think he's ever going to be a shut-down defender or anything like that. I do think he can fit in just fine in a team defensive system, which matters quite a bit.

And the biggest elephant in the room I left hanging there was sample size, which is a fair point, though it holds in general in larger sample sizes with different players. It's just that Rui doesn't actually have a large sample size in the NBA right now to go by and we don't have on-offs for him in college, either.

all good points. but I still think it's something to keep in mind because even the recent wings have posted above 1.0 in stls and blks in their rookie season

[payitforward]

At the team level, please show me ONE GAME in the history of basketball in which you could not tell who won the game from box score stats. Just one....

Oh? It can't be done? Gee, I guess that means that, at the team level not the individual level, BPM -- if the variables are given the right values -- is an excellent measure of how good the team is. Actually... it shows that no other measure is needed to account for team excellence, since "team excellence" itself is defined by win-loss record, & box score data completely accounts for wins & losses.

Getting from "team excellence" to how good a given player is, however, cannot be done to that same "complete" level based on box score numbers. But... it gets closer than any other method, that's for sure! The only real difficulty that the raw numbers, even properly valued, doesn't get past is evaluating players at radically different positions. Doing that requires a bunch of statistical regressions. &, by definition, it can't achieve perfection across all individual players -- it can only be statistically stronger or weaker depending how it's done.

[I_Like_Dirt]

At the team level, please show me ONE GAME in the history of basketball in which you could not tell who won the game from box score stats. Just one....

Oh, we're making hyperbolic out-of-context statements for no particular reason? Is it my turn?

There is only one box score stat that is absolutely indicative of the winner or loser at the end of the game. And no, it isn't offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, blocks or steals. I'll let you guess which one that is.

Oh, what's that? You want to add a bit more context and breadth of analysis to that singular stat? Great! Me too. But then please spare me this idea that we should stop the depth of analysis at any particular box score stat. And no, that doesn't mean we ignore any individual stats. I very obviously said as much in my initial post there. It just means we need to learn more about what the stats are saying. But hey, if this is just about making hyperbolic out-of-context statements for no particular reason, then you got me! I'll give you that.

[dobrojim]

let me try to inject a note of humor here...I think PIF is trying to paraphrase the
immortal Don Meredith when Meredith said, "It's unlucky to be behind at the end of the game."

[WallToWall]

A few observations from the first 5 games :
- His STL and BLK numbers are worrisome. Rookie forwards with STL and BLKS under 1.0 per 100 poss don't pan out well in the nba

Part of the problem with steals is that he doesn't take chances in swiping at the ball. It seems that he is playing it safe and doesnt want to foul. THis is an area of his game where he can definitely improve. He is newer to the game of basketball than almost all of his counterparts in the NBA. I dont think anyone/coach has focused on his defensive proficiencies beyond staying with whoever he is guarding and keeping that playing in front of him. I'm not sure he even does that at an average level yet. Also, when he challenges a shot, he doesnt seem to be close enough to the opponent where it would actually make a difference. His arms are outstretched, as in he is attempting to challenge, but he is too far back from the player he is guarding. Once again, perhaps he doesnt want to foul, or perhaps he is thinking he may get beat off the dribble. Both of these are fixable. It would be interesting to see what he learns over the next few months, and how he adjusts. I dont expect his STL and BLKs to stay at that low level. I would expect it to be average for his position.
What worries me more is his rebounding. He should be averaging more. He is in the right place/position, but seems to get beat to the ball still. Maybe it is strength, and/or quickness in reaction, and/or ??. In the 5 games I've watched so far, he has "lost" maybe 10-12 rebounds, which I think he should have gotten to.

[payitforward]

At the team level, please show me ONE GAME in the history of basketball in which you could not tell who won the game from box score stats. Just one....

Oh, we're making hyperbolic out-of-context statements for no particular reason? Is it my turn?...

Fair enough. My bad; rereading, my tone was extreme -- wasn't intended.

So lets do it more soberly, ok? & not create a meaningless dispute.

There is only one box score stat that is absolutely indicative of the winner or loser at the end of the game. And no, it isn't offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, blocks or steals. I'll let you guess which one that is....

Correct, only one pair of numbers (team scores) states the winner, but that fact supports my point -- because those team scores are a strict & absolute product of other box score stats. How many shots/FTAs you get & your %s on them are box score stats -- & they directly produce those team scores.

But... "how many shots/FTAs you get" is itself a direct product of other box score stats. Of your defensive/offensive boards, steals/turnovers, fouls, etc.

There are only two box score numbers (assists & blocks) with a relationship to scoring opportunities that is in any sense indirect. & to weigh the significance of those (via statistical regressions in SAS) is only slightly more difficult than weighing the impact of obvious ones (e.g. FT %).

Now, it's also true in turn that other facts & events -- ones that either aren't or can't be represented in the box score -- affect those box score numbers. To take an obvious example, spacing affects FG%. All the same, when we say that player A shoots the 3 better than player B, we don't very often qualify the statement with those kinds of contextual facts. For a good reason, too -- b/c we can't quantify their effects to a high degree of provability. This is part of the reason why going from team level to individual player assessment can't be done to the same straightforward & determinative level of precision.

The tools to assess individuals, rather than teams, in that way are necessarily imperfect. Whether we're talking about PER or WP48 or whatever. Thus, if you start from the individuals on a team, then add up their performance stats (adjusting for minutes played, obviously), then list all the teams from highest results to lowest, you can't achieve a 100% correlation with win-loss records.

When you compare tools like these, you just go with whatever does a better job in correlating to team results. That's your best tool for assessing individual players -- i.e. by their contribution to wins -- despite imperfection.

Any other assessment of players, any assessment independent of their effect on wins/losses, takes place in the other realm basketball occupies that has nothing to do with competition. I.e. entertainment. A thunderous dunk is more fun to watch than two made free throws. Grace, speed, brilliance in action & reaction, these are reasons we watch basketball too. As they are the reasons fans of ballet watch ballet, even though no one "wins" a ballet performance.

One of these realms is quantitative; the other is not. & about things that are not quantitative it is notoriously hard to judge with accuracy. After all, you know what Wittgenstein says in Proposition 7 of the Tractatus, right? "Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen." Which I'll do right now.

[Illmatic12]

Well this is escalating quickly .. Rui’s brand/marketability is already going through the roof and he’s only played a handful of games. If he actually develops into a bigtime NBA player , the hype + branding around him could surpass Ichiro levels !

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Read on Twitter

?s=21

[JWizmentality]

Well this is escalating quickly .. Rui’s brand/marketability is already going through the roof and he’s only played a handful of games. If he actually develops into a bigtime NBA player , the hype + branding around him could surpass Ichiro levels !

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Sugoi Sugoi!!

[payitforward]

Doesn't seem a surprise at all that Rui would rack up all these $$$ brand deals, does it? He's a unicorn. One of a kind marketability.

So it's not exactly something "This man... did." More like it's who he is. Very cool all the same!