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Rui Hachimura

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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#881 » by dckingsfan » Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:52 pm

payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:I guess the question is how to judge Rui? Is he a top 16 player at this time and will he be so in the future? Or is there another way to judge him (steal of the draft maybe)?

If you are looking at the question of is he playing above his draft position - I think the answer is a resounding yes.

I guess if you are looking at the steal of the draft, I guess that is Brandon Clarke (right now).

"...a top 16 player" -- ? Do you mean "in the league?" Good Lord!! Why are you laying that kind of expectation on this kid?

Is he the "steal of the draft"? Again... can we give this young man a little more time, please? No, he is not playing like "the steal of the draft" right now -- how would that be possible given that P.J. Washington (taken #12) is playing a whole h#ll of a lot better than Rui? Not to mention Eric Paschall, taken #41.

As to "above his draft position," well... he's playing better than most of the guys taken before him. OTOH, there are a bunch of guys taken after him who are playing better than he is.

What we can say about Rui after his first 228 minutes is that he's definitely an NBA player (that in itself is a lot to be able to say after 8 games!) & has a shot to become an outstanding one (again, a lot to be able say after 8 games).

That's a lot! But, that's also it. Nothing more to say.

No... one more thing: if you look at the history of #9 picks, I'm confident that Rui is among the best of them in the last dozen plus years.

:falloff: - in the draft. And as noted previously with a very small sample size.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#882 » by Ruzious » Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:41 pm

payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:Just checked, & 18 rookies have played 150 or more minutes. Using a common overall measure, Rui is the 6th most productive among them.

If you'd prefer to look at it from a different angle: not including Zion & Hayes (neither of whom has played yet), 6 guys were picked before Rui, but Rui is playing better than every single one of them. Better so far than Ja, Barrett, Hunter, Garland, Culver, & White.

OTOH, Washington, Herro, Guduric & Paschall are all playing great -- better than Rui.

The 5th guy w/ 150+ minutes who's outplaying Rui? That would be the rookie who is playing head and shoulders above every other rookie. You know who that is, right? It's not even close....

I think you're underrating Ja' performance. Yes - he needs to lower his to's, but almost every rookie PG goes through major growing pains. Ja's PER is 17.5 to Rui's 15.0, and his TS% is .556 to Rui's .526.

In Ja's case, it's really just a matter of the small sample size. He was producing great numbers overall, then a game or two not so good -- & the overall numbers plummet. Temporarily.

IOW, all these levels will continue to shift quickly until the numbers are enough that a couple of games don't have a big effect.

Very true - with the possible exception of someone like Reddish - who's started out so poorly while getting lots of minutes - that even a few really good games wont' stop his overall numbers from being bad.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#883 » by payitforward » Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:32 pm

dckingsfan wrote:I guess the question is how to judge Rui? Is he a top 16 player at this time and will he be so in the future? Or is there another way to judge him (steal of the draft maybe)? ...I guess if you are looking at the steal of the draft, I guess that is Brandon Clarke (right now).

For what it's worth, lets compare Rui with Clarke so far.

Per 40 minutes:
Clarke is scoring 1.15 more points at an enormously higher TS% (62.8% vs. 52.6% for Rui).
Clarke is also getting @2.7 more rebounds than Rui.
Clarke is blocking 2.85 shots as against Rui's less than .2.
On assists, steals, turnovers & fouls, overall the two guys are about the same.

Off these numbers & small sample size, Rui is significantly below average for an NBA 4 -- while, at the same time, I'd say he is doing well for a rookie.

Brandon Clarke, on the other hand, off his numbers & small sample size, ranks as @ the 4th best pure PF in the league.

Again, the numbers will change, & no one should draw hard & fast conclusions off a couple of hundred minutes. All the same, Clarke has been incredibly impressive.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#884 » by wall_glizzy » Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:39 pm

payitforward wrote:Brandon Clarke, on the other hand, again off these numbers & small sample size, ranks as @ the 4th best PF in the league.


Please, please, please stop this. How do you not understand the difference between actual production and hypothetical, per-40 production based on scaling up a performance that comes almost entirely against opposing benches?! At what point does this stuff get caught by the realgm spam filter? It's long since become an active impediment to useful discussion in here.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#885 » by payitforward » Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:45 pm

wall_glizzy wrote:
payitforward wrote:Brandon Clarke, on the other hand, again off these numbers & small sample size, ranks as @ the 4th best PF in the league.

Please, please, please stop this. How do you not understand the difference between actual production and hypothetical, per-40 production based on scaling up a performance that comes almost entirely against opposing benches?! At what point does this stuff get caught by the realgm spam filter? It's long since become an active impediment to useful discussion in here.

What have you made... maybe 15 posts? How long have you been analyzing basketball? I have forgotten more about this subject than you know. Maybe more than you'll ever know.

Per 40-minute numbers are not hypothetical. They are the usual method -- the one everyone uses -- to make it possible to compare players, since they all play different minutes. Now... if the per-game minutes are hugely different, of course the results have little meaning.

In this case, however, Rui is playing only @5.35 minutes more per game than Clarke. They're not facing much different competition. The difference in numbers, however, is absolutely enormous. Huge.

Try being respectful, learning something. If that's beyond you, it really doesn't matter what you post.

edit: you might try one other thing as well -- reading carefully. I didn't say that Clarke is the 4th best PF in the league, & I don't think he is. What I did was give context to his numbers by indicating where they rank him. Period. Above all, the sample size is small. Things will change -- maybe a lot, who knows? Maybe only a little? We'll see.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#886 » by wall_glizzy » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:02 pm

payitforward wrote:What have you made... maybe 15 posts? How long have you been analyzing basketball? I have forgotten more about this subject than you know. Maybe more than you'll ever know.

So far, Rui is playing @5.4 minutes more per game than Clarke. They're not facing much different competition. The difference in numbers, however, is absolutely enormous. Huge.

Go away. No, I don't mean that. What I mean is -- be respectful, & learn something.


lol I'm not sure that I would count long-term exposure to your posting (vis-a-vis years spent in this particular forum) as a good proxy for basketball understanding, but believe what you like; I'm not going to trot out my CV here to try and quantify the worth of my basketball analysis.

Anyway, my objection was to the characterization of Clarke as the fourth-best PF in the league - I agree with you that his numbers thus far, to the extent that the first eight-or-whatever games of the year yield anything worth comparing, are better than Rui's. (I'd further add that this is about what was expected even at the point of the draft, considering each player's age, experience with the game, perceived potential for future development, etc; it's the same reason that even if we think Clarke is "better" than Ja Morant based on their rookie campaigns so far, no team would pass over Ja for him in a re-draft).

I'm just saying that obviously false statements like "Brandon Clarke is the fourth-best PF in the league" do nothing to aid discussion here - they're just thrown out there as if self-evident, and the ensuing re-tread of a years-old debate (which I'm aware I'm engaging in right now) distracts from the topic at hand. If a claim needs to be caveated as extensively as this - "based on a tiny sample," "certain to change drastically" - it's very possibly not worth posting.

This is a recurring theme, and the fact that it was immediately apparent to someone who just joined the forum is worth noting, I think. I don't mean to be your personal ****-posting troll like... that other guy who shows up sometimes, but I think reigning this sort of thing in would drastically improve the quality of discussion around the forum as a whole.

edit: censored myself, as I'd thought the word filter was automatic
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#887 » by dckingsfan » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:07 pm

wall_glizzy wrote:
payitforward wrote:Brandon Clarke, on the other hand, again off these numbers & small sample size, ranks as @ the 4th best PF in the league.

Please, please, please stop this. How do you not understand the difference between actual production and hypothetical, per-40 production based on scaling up a performance that comes almost entirely against opposing benches?! At what point does this stuff get caught by the realgm spam filter? It's long since become an active impediment to useful discussion in here.

It is a pretty interesting look actually - especially since PIF stated that it was in a small sample size. Basically, Clarke has come out of the gates on fire... and with respect - I was the one that started this micro thread :D
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#888 » by wall_glizzy » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:22 pm

dckingsfan wrote:It is a pretty interesting look actually - especially since PIF stated that it was in a small sample size. Basically, Clarke has come out of the gates on fire... and with respect - I was the one that started this micro thread :D


I guess... I just don't see extrapolating ~22 minutes against second-stringers directly to 40 hypothetical minutes (necessarily including competition against starting squads) and making big claims based on that as a useful exercise. Moreover, we're basing this assessment on... some combo of TS%, rebounds, and blocked shots? A "common overall measure" that remains unnamed? I just think it could be good to reel in our tendencies to run wild with generous interpretations of tiny sample sizes (as PIF calls for, rightfully, with a lot of the Rui praise!), across the board, not just with everybody except Brandon Clarke. If this results in fewer overall posts, that's fine! I'd happily trade ultimately meaningless prognostications (i.e. virtually any absolutist claim about a player who was drafted this year) for a little more nuance in the remaining discussion.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#889 » by tontoz » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:51 pm

There is nothing hypothetical about per 40 minute (or per 36, per 48, per 20 ..whatever) numbers. They are a players averages based on MINUTES PLAYED. That is the best way to compare players who are playing different minutes. It doesn't matter how many minutes per game a player gets.

At this point the argument can certainly be made that the sample size is to small too draw meaningful conclusions but that is a different discussion. As far as playing off the bench that isn't as clear cut as it might seem.

After Porter's 2nd season Kevin made his PPA projections about players' production the following season. I made the comment that his estimate on Porter was going to be too low. My reasoning was that Porter's off the ball movement would be rewarded more playing with starters which turned out to be the case. Playing with the bench players i would frequently see Porter wide open after an off the ball cut and they would ignore him.

I haven't noticed a big different in player production playing off the bench vs starting. Some guys are better off starting, others are better off the bench.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#890 » by payitforward » Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:49 am

wall_glizzy wrote:
payitforward wrote:What have you made... maybe 15 posts? How long have you been analyzing basketball? I have forgotten more about this subject than you know. Maybe more than you'll ever know.

So far, Rui is playing @5.4 minutes more per game than Clarke. They're not facing much different competition. The difference in numbers, however, is absolutely enormous. Huge.

Go away. No, I don't mean that. What I mean is -- be respectful, & learn something.


lol I'm not sure that I would count long-term exposure to your posting (vis-a-vis years spent in this particular forum) as a good proxy for basketball understanding, but believe what you like; I'm not going to trot out my CV here to try and quantify the worth of my basketball analysis.

Anyway, my objection was to the characterization of Clarke as the fourth-best PF in the league - I agree with you that his numbers thus far, to the extent that the first eight-or-whatever games of the year yield anything worth comparing, are better than Rui's. (I'd further add that this is about what was expected even at the point of the draft, considering each player's age, experience with the game, perceived potential for future development, etc; it's the same reason that even if we think Clarke is "better" than Ja Morant based on their rookie campaigns so far, no team would pass over Ja for him in a re-draft).

I'm just saying that obviously false statements like "Brandon Clarke is the fourth-best PF in the league" do nothing to aid discussion here - they're just thrown out there as if self-evident, and the ensuing re-tread of a years-old debate (which I'm aware I'm engaging in right now) distracts from the topic at hand. If a claim needs to be caveated as extensively as this - "based on a tiny sample," "certain to change drastically" - it's very possibly not worth posting.

This is a recurring theme, and the fact that it was immediately apparent to someone who just joined the forum is worth noting, I think. I don't mean to be your personal ****-posting troll like... that other guy who shows up sometimes, but I think reigning this sort of thing in would drastically improve the quality of discussion around the forum as a whole.

edit: censored myself, as I'd thought the word filter was automatic

I notice that you've edited out your suggestions that a) per 40 minute comparisons between players with similar minutes are foolish, b) Clarke is playing against inferior players, & c) a spam filter should be employed against my posts. Perhaps you would consider whether it really made sense to write in that way. If, in retrospect, you think better of all that, perhaps you would go so far as to mention it? I really don't think my response questioning your actual knowledge was that kind of a series of insults, do you?

In fact, behind the sentences of this post I sense a desire on your part to avoid a conflict. Good. I feel the same way. Hence I'll just comment to clarify, ok?

1. I didn't state that Brandon Clarke is the 4th-best PF in the NBA, & -- obviously! -- I don't think he is. Perhaps you would, please, read my words again, this time a little more carefully. It should be clear.

2. What was expected, the players ages, etc. -- that's a perfectly valid notion on your part. Yes, it may turn out that Rui is the better player. Or, obviously, the opposite. But, since I never said one of them would turn out better than the other, or which it would be, the point has no relevance to my post. I have, however, pointed out repeatedly that I would not have picked Brandon Clarke #9 in the draft. I've only made that clear about 100 times.

But I would most certainly have traded down, if it had been possible, & picked Clarke & additional assets with what I got in the trade. You do see that that is a totally different statement, right?

3. Morant in a re-draft. Look, if I'd made the #2 pick in the 2019 draft for Memphis, I would have picked Ja Morant. Duh. Have I ever suggested otherwise? You're really not understanding what I wrote -- which is ok; after all, you may have better things to do. But, if you are going to respond to what I write, then it seems fair for me to request that you understand what I write. In return, I'll try to understand what you write. That's what I mean by "respectful." & if there's something that's unclear in what I write -- that may be my fault, why not? Feel free to ask me what I mean, & I'll do the same.

4. There is no such verb in English as "to caveat," but of course, statements about any rookie need to be accompanied by a caveat about the small sample. That's true in what one would write about Ja Morant. It's true in what one would write about Rui Hachimura. & it's true in what one would write about Brandon Clarke. True in exactly the same way in each case.

Hence, if it's not ok, for whatever reason, to comment on Clarke's numbers -- what the guy is doing on the court so far -- then it's not ok in any other guy's case. But... you just did comment on what Clarke & Hachimura are doing on the court so far, & you just did it with the caveat that the small sample might make it less than meaningful.

Since that's exactly what I did & you didn't like (even the assessment is the same as mine!), I'm sure you see the problem. But above all, if one was to hold to your premise the one you didn't hold to, why then, no one ought to express concern that Beal is shooting a low percentage? No one should discuss Bryant's numbers this year. No one should opine on Davis Bertans. Etc. The sample sizes are small for all concerned. So, perhaps that's not a valid point you're making -- in which case "reigning" it in might be the order of the day.

5. Now, you seem a bright guy. I'm sure you'll have something insightful to say about the Wizards. Personally, I'm glad you're here -- despite your taking a pointless pot shot at me. Followed by another in this follow-up post. No, I don't think what you call "immediately apparent" is worth noting. I think it's worth nothing. Only a one letter difference, but such an important difference.

On the other hand, I am hoping that what is apparent to you over time here is worth noting. I'm hoping it's well worth noting.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#891 » by payitforward » Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:07 am

wall_glizzy wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:It is a pretty interesting look actually - especially since PIF stated that it was in a small sample size. Basically, Clarke has come out of the gates on fire... and with respect - I was the one that started this micro thread :D


I guess... I just don't see extrapolating ~22 minutes against second-stringers directly to 40 hypothetical minutes (necessarily including competition against starting squads) and making big claims based on that as a useful exercise. Moreover, we're basing this assessment on... some combo of TS%, rebounds, and blocked shots? A "common overall measure" that remains unnamed? I just think it could be good to reel in our tendencies to run wild with generous interpretations of tiny sample sizes (as PIF calls for, rightfully, with a lot of the Rui praise!), across the board, not just with everybody except Brandon Clarke. If this results in fewer overall posts, that's fine! I'd happily trade ultimately meaningless prognostications (i.e. virtually any absolutist claim about a player who was drafted this year) for a little more nuance in the remaining discussion.

Sigh... :)

I don't know of any "absolutist claim about a player... drafted this year." Though if there were any, I agree with you entirely that it would be ridiculous.

Would you very kindly consider in your most thoughtful way whether perhaps you have led yourself astray in this regard & might need "to reel in" these characterizations? IMO, it would lead to "a little more nuance in the... discussion."

Unless, of course, you can back it up. Why don't you quote -- actual words, please -- some examples which as you say, "run wild."

Well, actually, I guess there has been some over the top enthusiasm about Rui -- understandable given our history in the draft over the last several years. He's been predicted as RoY (I think at that point he might have played about 45 minutes!! :) ). Etc. But, that's to be expected as normal over-enthusiasm of homer fans.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#892 » by dckingsfan » Tue Nov 12, 2019 2:13 pm

payitforward wrote:
wall_glizzy wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:It is a pretty interesting look actually - especially since PIF stated that it was in a small sample size. Basically, Clarke has come out of the gates on fire... and with respect - I was the one that started this micro thread :D


I guess... I just don't see extrapolating ~22 minutes against second-stringers directly to 40 hypothetical minutes (necessarily including competition against starting squads) and making big claims based on that as a useful exercise. Moreover, we're basing this assessment on... some combo of TS%, rebounds, and blocked shots? A "common overall measure" that remains unnamed? I just think it could be good to reel in our tendencies to run wild with generous interpretations of tiny sample sizes (as PIF calls for, rightfully, with a lot of the Rui praise!), across the board, not just with everybody except Brandon Clarke. If this results in fewer overall posts, that's fine! I'd happily trade ultimately meaningless prognostications (i.e. virtually any absolutist claim about a player who was drafted this year) for a little more nuance in the remaining discussion.

Sigh... :)

I don't know of any "absolutist claim about a player... drafted this year." Though if there were any, I agree with you entirely that it would be ridiculous.

Would you very kindly consider in your most thoughtful way whether perhaps you have led yourself astray in this regard & might need "to reel in" these characterizations? IMO, it would lead to "a little more nuance in the... discussion."

Unless, of course, you can back it up. Why don't you quote -- actual words, please -- some examples which as you say, "run wild."

Well, actually, I guess there has been some over the top enthusiasm about Rui -- understandable given our history in the draft over the last several years. He's been predicted as RoY (I think at that point he might have played about 45 minutes!! :) ). Etc. But, that's to be expected as normal over-enthusiasm of homer fans.

fan or fanatic (n.) A person marked or motivated by an extreme, unreasoning enthusiasm, as for a cause. :D
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#893 » by Dat2U » Tue Nov 12, 2019 2:45 pm

payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:I guess the question is how to judge Rui? Is he a top 16 player at this time and will he be so in the future? Or is there another way to judge him (steal of the draft maybe)? ...I guess if you are looking at the steal of the draft, I guess that is Brandon Clarke (right now).

For what it's worth, lets compare Rui with Clarke so far.

Per 40 minutes:
Clarke is scoring 1.15 more points at an enormously higher TS% (62.8% vs. 52.6% for Rui).
Clarke is also getting @2.7 more rebounds than Rui.
Clarke is blocking 2.85 shots as against Rui's less than .2.
On assists, steals, turnovers & fouls, overall the two guys are about the same.

Off these numbers & small sample size, Rui is significantly below average for an NBA 4 -- while, at the same time, I'd say he is doing well for a rookie.

Brandon Clarke, on the other hand, off his numbers & small sample size, ranks as @ the 4th best pure PF in the league.

Again, the numbers will change, & no one should draw hard & fast conclusions off a couple of hundred minutes. All the same, Clarke has been incredibly impressive.


My main concerns coming in with Rui is rebounding & defense. I've been impressed with his shot creation but he has a long way to go on the defensive side of the ball.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#894 » by nate33 » Tue Nov 12, 2019 3:04 pm

Dat2U wrote:
payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:I guess the question is how to judge Rui? Is he a top 16 player at this time and will he be so in the future? Or is there another way to judge him (steal of the draft maybe)? ...I guess if you are looking at the steal of the draft, I guess that is Brandon Clarke (right now).

For what it's worth, lets compare Rui with Clarke so far.

Per 40 minutes:
Clarke is scoring 1.15 more points at an enormously higher TS% (62.8% vs. 52.6% for Rui).
Clarke is also getting @2.7 more rebounds than Rui.
Clarke is blocking 2.85 shots as against Rui's less than .2.
On assists, steals, turnovers & fouls, overall the two guys are about the same.

Off these numbers & small sample size, Rui is significantly below average for an NBA 4 -- while, at the same time, I'd say he is doing well for a rookie.

Brandon Clarke, on the other hand, off his numbers & small sample size, ranks as @ the 4th best pure PF in the league.

Again, the numbers will change, & no one should draw hard & fast conclusions off a couple of hundred minutes. All the same, Clarke has been incredibly impressive.


My main concerns coming in with Rui is rebounding & defense. I've been impressed with his shot creation but he has a long way to go on the defensive side of the ball.

Hachimura needs to exchange some fouls for more steals and blocks. His foul rate is too low, indicating he is too conservative on defense. He needs to be more aggressive: reach in more and try and take more charges.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#895 » by DCZards » Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:05 pm

nate33 wrote:Hachimura needs to exchange some fouls for more steals and blocks. His foul rate is too low, indicating he is too conservative on defense. He needs to be more aggressive: reach in more and try and take more charges.

Fortunately, those are things that can be coached/taught to do. Rui needs to learn that you can be far more physical and aggressive in the NBA than you can in college. He certainly has no problem being physical on the offensive end.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#896 » by payitforward » Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:35 pm

Dat2U wrote:My main concerns coming in with Rui is rebounding & defense. I've been impressed with his shot creation but he has a long way to go on the defensive side of the ball.

He's rebounding at virtually the same rate as last year at Gonzaga.

As far as defense goes, at least he has a veteran to learn from: IT can give him some tips!!
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#897 » by Jaekast » Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:28 am

Pif is that guy you kick in the nuts the first time you meet him. He's not hard to find at home games. Bullets Jersey 15 Clarke on the back.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#898 » by Jaekast » Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:28 am

Pif is so fookin charming.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#899 » by Jaekast » Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:32 am

Pif hates Rui more than he loves Clarke. Check your fandom bro, you're doing it wrong. Last I checked there was a Brandon Clarke thread. You should hang out there.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#900 » by payitforward » Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:53 pm

:)

You seem to be obsessed with Brandon Clarke, Jaekast. Why is that? I mean, you've managed 149 posts in 3.5 years -- yet you've posted about Clarke @ 10 times this week.

What's up with that, man?

BTW, talking about kicking another poster in the nuts will get you banned here. Is that clear?

Maybe you should work on your drinking problem, what do you think?
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