Predict the Wizards Record '19-'20 season

[Dat2U]

20-62

Wall comes back earlier than expected, plays 25+ games, plays limited minutes and looks ok'ish. Some good games mixed in with awful ones.

Beal will continue to play a ton of minutes.

Bryant will have a mini-breakout, possibly average a double/double and is likely team's 3rd leading scorer.

Hachimura will provide some optimism due to his advanced shot creation skills and professionalism. I suspect the defense/rebounding will be weak spots. I think he starts off slow and plays better over the 2nd half.

TBJ will get plenty of opportunity but unless his jumper is suddenly reliable, his offensive impact will be muted. His handle also could stand to be tighter. May be our best defender on the roster by default.

Bertans is a useful vet. Unfortunately his lack of rebounding or presence on defense will get exposed here. Still he's probably the only reliable vet outside of Beal on the entire roster.

The rest of the roster is complete cluster****

Ish is a mediocre backup PG. Basically a broke version of Wall without the frame, decision making and an even worse jumper.

I've assumed IT is done as a playable option. The last two years have been regrettable on court and he cannot stay healthy.

C.J. Miles appeared to fall off a cliff last season and looked old/slow.

McRae is a 12th to 15th guy on most rosters ibut for us he's likely the best vet & scorer we'll have coming off the bench. Yikes!!!

Nothing needs to be said about Mahinmi.

Wagner, Bonga, Schofield, Robinson & Chiozza all could comfortably fill out an G League roster. Not sure any of them belong in the NBA.

To be honest I'm a little surprised to see folks suggesting win totals over 30. This is not last year's group, this current team has 3 clear cut contributors with the rest of the roster featuring some washed vets along with our young guys and NBDL types.

[nate33]

20-62

Wall comes back earlier than expected, plays 25+ games, plays limited minutes and looks ok'ish. Some good games mixed in with awful ones.

Beal will continue to play a ton of minutes.

Bryant will have a mini-breakout, possibly average a double/double and is likely team's 3rd leading scorer.

Hachimura will provide some optimism due to his advanced shot creation skills and professionalism. I suspect the defense/rebounding will be weak spots. I think he starts off slow and plays better over the 2nd half.

TBJ will get plenty of opportunity but unless his jumper is suddenly reliable, his offensive impact will be muted. His handle also could stand to be tighter. May be our best defender on the roster by default.

Bertans is a useful vet. Unfortunately his lack of rebounding or presence on defense will get exposed here. Still he's probably the only reliable vet outside of Beal on the entire roster.

The rest of the roster is complete cluster****

Ish is a mediocre backup PG. Basically a broke version of Wall without the frame, decision making and an even worse jumper.

I've assumed IT is done as a playable option. The last two years have been regrettable on court and he cannot stay healthy.

C.J. Miles appeared to fall off a cliff last season and looked old/slow.

McRae is a 12th to 15th guy on most rosters ibut for us he's likely the best vet & scorer we'll have coming off the bench. Yikes!!!

Nothing needs to be said about Mahinmi.

Wagner, Bonga, Schofield, Robinson & Chiozza all could comfortably fill out an G League roster. Not sure any of them belong in the NBA.

To be honest I'm a little surprised to see folks suggesting win totals over 30. This is not last year's group, this current team has 3 clear cut contributors with the rest of the roster featuring some washed vets along with our young guys and NBDL types.

I agree with most of the analysis, just not the win total. Yes, Wagner, Bonga, Schofield, Robinson and Chiozza are all G-League players that probably don't belong in the NBA. Fortunately, only one of them (Wagner) is going to be a part of the regular rotation.

If you look at just the 10 players who matter: Ish, Beal, Brown, Hachimura, Bryant, IT, McRae, Miles, Bertans and Wagner, that lineup looks competitive - particularly if Bryant has a mini breakout and Hachimura becomes a solid player by season's end. Obviously, "competitive" doesn't mean they're "good", but they're not wretched either. And you need to be wretched to win just 20 games in the East. The Cavs won 19 games last year with Cedi Osman, Colin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson leading them in minutes. We've got Bradley Beal, Thomas Bryant and Davis Bertans.

[nate33]

16 wins. Worst team in the league.

Weren't good last year, and major drop-off at PG and SF. Cuts of Jones and Anderson will also cost a few games, although neither makes much difference long term. No decent backup C.

However, future looks promising if Wall comes back near old level. Rui and TBjr will be good in the future. Bryant is already good. Should get a good player in the next draft.

It's a dropoff at PG, but I don't know how major. Ish is a legit backup in this league, perhaps a 7th or 8th man. Sato was merely a borderline starter - a 5th man. The dropoff at SF is a that big either. Ariza was washed up last year. And we only had 1200 minutes of Otto Porter, and it was his worst season since his 2nd year. Meanwhile, our C position is improved.

I just don't see the win total dropping that much.

There have only been 9 teams in the past 20 years with 16 or fewer wins. And none of them had an All Star in their prime.

[payitforward]

Well... the truth is that both Dat (welcome back -- where you been??) & bsilver (ditto!) are being far more realistic than the rest of us. Babymaker too.

Realistic, I mean, in their estimation of most (especially the worst) players on our roster.

But... where I think both of you are being somewhat unrealistic is in your estimation of last year's roster -- that won 32 games.

Porter had an awful season in his minutes w/ us. Portis was horrendous. Markieff Morris was... just godawful. Wall was way below average overall. Parker was really bad (no matter what people think). Jeff Green was absolutely terrible (no matter what people think). Randle/Smith/Baker/Johnson were pathetic. Austin Rivers was utter trash. Kelly Oubre wasn't any good either. Add in Mahinmi & McRae, & those players accounted for 10,375 of our 19,680 minutes of team playing time.

We still have the last 2 of those guys. But they only played 830 of those minutes. The guys we've added aren't going to play that many minutes, but in the minutes they do play they will not be as bad overall as the other 12 mentioned above. No way.

We've lost Sato & Ariza; they were both good, especially Sato, & combined for 3629 minutes. Dekker, Howard, Devin Robinson & John Jenkins added another 960 minutes of productive play. Those 4600 minutes of play are what we have to replace.

I don't think it'll be all that hard to do. I expect Bryant to play 1000 more minutes than last year & Brown to play at least 1000 minutes over last year as well. If we keep Justin Anderson (inevitable, I think...) he should be expected to go back to his level of play the first 3 years of his career or somewhat better -- a lot better if his 3-point shooting has really improved along the lines of what he's done so far -- & to play quite a lot -- 1600-1800 minutes, perhaps. That's most of it. If Hachimura plays 1500 minutes, we've replaced those guys.

I could be wrong. Way wrong. But... I don't think so.

[payitforward]

16 wins. Worst team in the league.

Weren't good last year, and major drop-off at PG and SF. Cuts of Jones and Anderson will also cost a few games, although neither makes much difference long term. No decent backup C.

However, future looks promising if Wall comes back near old level. Rui and TBjr will be good in the future. Bryant is already good. Should get a good player in the next draft.

It's a dropoff at PG, but I don't know how major. Ish is a legit backup in this league, perhaps a 7th or 8th man. Sato was merely a borderline starter - a 5th man. The dropoff at SF is a that big either. Ariza was washed up last year. And we only had 1200 minutes of Otto Porter, and it was his worst season since his 2nd year. Meanwhile, our C position is improved.

I just don't see the win total dropping that much.

There have only been 9 teams in the past 20 years with 16 or fewer wins. And none of them had an All Star in their prime.

People are underestimating what a drag sail Austin Rivers was the first part of last year. & he got heavy minutes, while Sato rode the bench. Meanwhile, Mahinmi started, & Morris played heavy minutes. Horrible! Accordingly, we began the season 2-9.

From there forward we went 20-23 until the trade deadline. We then went 8-8.

After that, we slipped down the tubes again, going 2-10 to close the season.

[payitforward]

16 wins. Worst team in the league.

Weren't good last year, and major drop-off at PG and SF. Cuts of Jones and Anderson will also cost a few games, although neither makes much difference long term. No decent backup C....

Ish Smith is a big "drop-off at PG" compared to Wall healthy in his prime. He's also a big drop-off compared to Sato last year -- I think you drastically underestimate the season Satoransky had, nate.

But if Smith returns to his level of play 3 years ago, he's not awful. Of course, we don't know that he will....

I don't see the drop-off at SF, however. Ariza was pretty good, but he wasn't great. & he played 1500 minutes. Dekker played 600 minutes & played well, to be sure. But, if Troy Brown improves a bit, he'll be at their level. He was very effective overall in 730 minutes.

What's positive is the really large number of additions by subtraction we've had!

[verbal8]

29-53 I know this is pessimistic, but I think the downside is more likely than the upside. On the positive side, I think this team will be easy to root for and hopefully building towards a brighter future.

[trast66]

24 wins 13th in the East. We just don’t have the talent to compete with anyone but Cavs and Hornets. Scott Brooks may be the worst coach in the league. I think Beal will be traded during season.

I’ll watch every game and should be fun with the young guys.

[Dat2U]

20-62

Wall comes back earlier than expected, plays 25+ games, plays limited minutes and looks ok'ish. Some good games mixed in with awful ones.

Beal will continue to play a ton of minutes.

Bryant will have a mini-breakout, possibly average a double/double and is likely team's 3rd leading scorer.

Hachimura will provide some optimism due to his advanced shot creation skills and professionalism. I suspect the defense/rebounding will be weak spots. I think he starts off slow and plays better over the 2nd half.

TBJ will get plenty of opportunity but unless his jumper is suddenly reliable, his offensive impact will be muted. His handle also could stand to be tighter. May be our best defender on the roster by default.

Bertans is a useful vet. Unfortunately his lack of rebounding or presence on defense will get exposed here. Still he's probably the only reliable vet outside of Beal on the entire roster.

The rest of the roster is complete cluster****

Ish is a mediocre backup PG. Basically a broke version of Wall without the frame, decision making and an even worse jumper.

I've assumed IT is done as a playable option. The last two years have been regrettable on court and he cannot stay healthy.

C.J. Miles appeared to fall off a cliff last season and looked old/slow.

McRae is a 12th to 15th guy on most rosters ibut for us he's likely the best vet & scorer we'll have coming off the bench. Yikes!!!

Nothing needs to be said about Mahinmi.

Wagner, Bonga, Schofield, Robinson & Chiozza all could comfortably fill out an G League roster. Not sure any of them belong in the NBA.

To be honest I'm a little surprised to see folks suggesting win totals over 30. This is not last year's group, this current team has 3 clear cut contributors with the rest of the roster featuring some washed vets along with our young guys and NBDL types.

I agree with most of the analysis, just not the win total. Yes, Wagner, Bonga, Schofield, Robinson and Chiozza are all G-League players that probably don't belong in the NBA. Fortunately, only one of them (Wagner) is going to be a part of the regular rotation.

If you look at just the 10 players who matter: Ish, Beal, Brown, Hachimura, Bryant, IT, McRae, Miles, Bertans and Wagner, that lineup looks competitive - particularly if Bryant has a mini breakout and Hachimura becomes a solid player by season's end. Obviously, "competitive" doesn't mean they're "good", but they're not wretched either. And you need to be wretched to win just 20 games in the East. The Cavs won 19 games last year with Cedi Osman, Colin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson leading them in minutes. We've got Bradley Beal, Thomas Bryant and Davis Bertans.

1. Wagner or whoever at backup C is a major problem. The defense is going to be terrible.

2. Miles looked completely done last year. Could he bounce back? I guess, but he is also 32 so odds are he won't.

3. IT hasn't been really playable in 2 years and is hurt now. It seems really optimistic to think he can help. Put him in the lineup with Wagner at C... it's going to be a layup line at the rim.

4. Ish was bad last year... as a backup. Now were expecting him to be a starter for at least half the season. He too can't play a lick of D. See a pattern?

5. McRae is a fringe NBA player. He can create a shot but that's about it.

6. Rookies generally don't contribute to many wins. I don't expect Hachimura to either, despite the offensive promise.

The bottom line is defense. There is none. Even with Bryant, no one would confuse him with a rim protector. Bertans is a smart/heady guy but not a rebounder or rim protector either.

We may have the worst defensive group of PFs/Cs in the entire league. Even if were competent offensively, what stops us from giving up 130 a night???

[Dat2U]

Well... the truth is that both Dat (welcome back -- where you been??) & bsilver (ditto!) are being far more realistic than the rest of us. Babymaker too.

Realistic, I mean, in their estimation of most (especially the worst) players on our roster.

But... where I think both of you are being somewhat unrealistic is in your estimation of last year's roster -- that won 32 games.

Didnt want to be a broken record like I am most summers!

There are varying degrees of terrible that our current vets offer. I expect nothing from IT or CJ. Ish isn't a passable starter. McRae is a fringe guy. Outside of Beal, Bryant & Bertans, there are no reliable veteran options. Most of our bench options are NBDL types. To win 30 games would be overachieving based on the talent.

[closg00]

26 - 54, there will be a sufficient number of hot-shooting nights to get us to 26 wins, I should take a look around to see if anyone else might be worse than us before putting this as my final prediction.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

26 wins.

We’ll fight our tails off, move the ball, take some 2nd quarter leads ... and ultimately lose most nights.

I’ll watch, but my expectations will be very low.

[MarcoPolo]

27-55

No Wall and basically horrible bench
Few bright spots that will allow them to win, I guess winning about 1/3 of total games seem to be fair evaluation.
A lot of depends on this team shooting 3, defending quick attacks and rebounding ability.

[Mojo Amok]

I'm not going to adjust my win-prediction upwards, but Beal's extension puts a much more stable leadership foundation and emotional narrative in place for the season. The odds of outright turmoil and lockerroom rot are now quite minuscule. Probably the lowest chance of dysfunction in recent memory when taking everything into account (especially given the low expectations for the actual win total).

A low win total feel-good ride under the guidance of a bought-in mentor/star followed by a fortuitous arrangement post ping pong shuffle would be the bullseye for what the team needs right now. And it actually looks like a quite plausible outcome as well.

[payitforward]

Yep -- well said!

[daSwami]

28-54, optimistically. Should be an interesting season nonetheless personnel-wise.

[payitforward]

1. Wagner or whoever at backup C is a major problem. The defense is going to be terrible.

2. Miles looked completely done last year. Could he bounce back? I guess, but he is also 32 so odds are he won't.

3. IT hasn't been really playable in 2 years and is hurt now. It seems really optimistic to think he can help. Put him in the lineup with Wagner at C... it's going to be a layup line at the rim.

4. Ish was bad last year... as a backup. Now were expecting him to be a starter for at least half the season. He too can't play a lick of D. See a pattern?

5. McRae is a fringe NBA player. He can create a shot but that's about it.

6. Rookies generally don't contribute to many wins. I don't expect Hachimura to either, despite the offensive promise.

The bottom line is defense. There is none. Even with Bryant, no one would confuse him with a rim protector. Bertans is a smart/heady guy but not a rebounder or rim protector either.

We may have the worst defensive group of PFs/Cs in the entire league. Even if were competent offensively, what stops us from giving up 130 a night???

Well... that's what I meant by "realistic in your estimation of our current roster." & it's gotten worse in the last 24 hours as well!

But, where I think you are missing something, dat, is that you view the current roster as significantly worse than the post-trade deadline roster last year, which went 10-18 -- i.e. like a 29-win season.

I think that's incorrect. Other than Sato, the only guys on that roster who put up good numbers & are not on this year's team were Ariza & Dekker. I look for Brown, Bertans & Rui to be better, combined, than than Portis, Green, Parker, Ariza & Dekker. I'd be surer about this if we'd kept Anderson, of course.

Replacing Sato's production is another matter -- won't happen. But I don't think that with Beal, Brown, Bryant, Bertans & Brui eating up 10,000 minutes, we'll be likely to fall to 20 wins.

But... we'll see.

[dckingsfan]

10/15th 29-53 13th

Edit: 10/17th can I change my prediction before deadline?

Yep - up until the start of the second game of the season.

[doclinkin]

10/15th 29-53 13th

Edit: 10/17th can I change my prediction before deadline?

Yep - up until the start of the second game of the season.

Hah! That's cheap. Why does game 1 not count?

[dckingsfan]

36 - nuposse04
35 -
34 - youngWizzy; FiveThirtyeight
33 -
32 - dckingsfan
31 - nate33
30 - TGW; AFM; Bleacher Report
29 - payitforward; TheBabyMaker; verbal8
28 - doclinkin; Mojo Amok; daSwami
27 - MarcoPolo
26.5 - Vegas
26 - JWizmentality; closg00; long suffrin' boulez fan
25 -
24 - trast66
23 -
22 - BigA
20 - Dat2U
16 - bsilver


10th -
11th - youngWizzy; payitforward
12th - dckingsfan
13th - TheBabyMaker; BigA; Mojo Amok; trast66