Predict the Wizards Record '19-'20 season

Dat2U · Post #81 » by **Dat2U** » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:59 pm

Final prediction: 22-60

Defense will set a record or two for futility. Offense will be about league average, maybe slightly better.

14th seed in the East ahead of only Charlotte.

TheBabyMaker · Post #82 » by **TheBabyMaker** » Thu Oct 24, 2019 6:14 am

I'm going from 29-53 to 22-60 14th they just don't have it. Beal going to have a lot of long nights like tonight not enough talent around him. I'll keep watching though.

Shoe · Post #83 » by **Shoe** » Thu Oct 24, 2019 6:29 am

The goal should be to crack 30 wins. This will be a fun season to watch regardless.

Chocolate City Jordanaire · Post #84 » by **Chocolate City Jordanaire** » Thu Oct 24, 2019 7:45 am

Washington end up with the worst record in the league.

Only 15 wins is a possibility .

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BigA · Post #85 » by **BigA** » Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:51 pm

Now that we have a couple other people at 22-60, I'll move down to 21-61. No one else has 21, right? Still 13th.

Tempted to go lower, since the Beal extension means everyone has agreed they're going to tank.

Post #86 » by **nate33** » Thu Oct 24, 2019 5:19 pm

I alluded to this in the game thread, but it's worth repeating here.

The Wizards are hell bent on taking a TON of 3's. As such, they will be much more streaky than in years past. When the shots are falling, they can beat even the good teams, and when they're not falling, they will be blown out.

But the math of a high beta team is favorable if the team is bad overall. Think about it. Let's say a hypothetical team has a plus/minus differential of -5, but they are infinitely consistent - meaning that they ALWAYS play 5 points worse than an average team. Let's also say that all other teams are also infinitely consistent. Assuming the point differentials of last season, our hypothetical team would have beaten the 5 worst teams in the league every time they played them, but lost to the 24 best teams in the league, every time they played them. That would have resulted in 15 wins last year.

Compare that to a team that plays half their games 15 points above league average, and the other half of their games 25 points below league average (in a league when everyone else is infinitely consistent). That team would still have a -5 point differential, but they would win all their games on their 41 good days (because even the best teams are only 12 or so points better), and lose all their games on their 41 bad days. They'd finish with a 41-41 record with all 41 losses being horrific blowouts.

I'm using extremes to make the point, but the point is valid. The higher the beta, the more likely you are to outperform a negative average plus/minus differential (and the more likely you are to underperform a positive average plus/minus differential).

So basically, we might finish with a point differential worse than, say, Memphis and New York, but end up with more wins.

payitforward · Post #87 » by **payitforward** » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:48 am

This is an interesting argument, nate. But, its validity is strongly dependent on the size of the differential between the beta of the single team under consideration (i.e. us, in this case) & the betas of other teams.

The general form of your conclusion -- "team A might finish with a worse point differential than team B but post as good or better a record" is widely supported across the league. All the more if you consider not the absolutes of "better" & "worse" but win-loss record vs. size of the differentials more generally.

Which means that, overall, teams tend to have high beta -- & that makes sense in a series of zero sum games. I.e. if Team A increases its beta with a victory over Team B (a team with a better differential), that victory also increases Team B's beta.

Look at the Kings vs. Dallas last year -- the Mavs were only .1 worse in differential, but Sac'to won almost 20% more games. The Lakers had a worse differential than three of the four Western Conference teams just below them in win-loss standings.

IOW, the teams' betas are not independent of one another. The higher our beta, the higher at least one other team's beta: i.e., if we "...finish with a point differential worse than, say, Memphis and New York, but end up with more wins," the converse also happens: NY & the Grizzlies will have a better differential than us but a worse record.

dckingsfan · Post #88 » by **dckingsfan** » Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:22 am

One can still change or add a prediction until the start of the second game of the season. Tie breakers on the finish in the EC.

44 - prime1time
37 - BearlyBallin
36 - nuposse04; Doug_Blew
35 - WallToWall; Shoe
34 - youngWizzy; FiveThirtyeight; MDStar
33 - bgroban; queridiculo; Endless Loop; montestewart;
32 - dckingsfan; DCZards
31 - nate33; Illmatic12; Eli Babak; CntOutSmrtCrazy
30 - TGW; AFM; Bleacher Report; miller31time; I_Like_Dirt; DANNYLANDOVER
29 - payitforward; verbal8; 80sballboy
28 - doclinkin; Mojo Amok; daSwami; Kanyewest
27 - MarcoPolo; JAR69; FAH1223
26.5 - Vegas
26 - JWizmentality; closg00; long suffrin' boulez fan; dandridge 10
25 - dobrojim
24 - trast66
23 - CCJ
22 - Dat2U; TheBabyMaker
21 - BigA
20 - mrdonut
16 - bsilver

10th - DANNYLANDOVER
11th - youngWizzy; payitforward; montestewart; queridiculo
12th - dckingsfan; miller31time; I_Like_Dirt; Kanyewest
13th - BigA; Mojo Amok; trast66; JAR69; Eli Babak; dobrojim
14th - TheBabyMaker

rl25g · Post #89 » by **rl25g** » Fri Oct 25, 2019 3:47 am

38 wins

prime1time · Post #90 » by **prime1time** » Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:53 am

I will readjust and go to 22 games. We made so many mistakes. Hard to imagine any of those things will be fixed any time soon. We have guys on this roster literally trying to learn how to play professional basketball. Talk about load management and using advanced analytics to determine optimum minutes for each player really just means tanking. All in all, it makes sense. Tank this year and build for the future.

WizTom · Post #91 » by **WizTom** » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:24 pm

23 - 59
13th in the East
Deja Vu all over again.

BigA · Post #92 » by **BigA** » Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:34 pm

prime1time wrote:I will readjust and go to 22 games. We made so many mistakes. Hard to imagine any of those things will be fixed any time soon. We have guys on this roster literally trying to learn how to play professional basketball. Talk about load management and using advanced analytics to determine optimum minutes for each player really just means tanking. All in all, it makes sense. Tank this year and build for the future.

Whoa, from 44 to 22. That's a pretty big swing.

TheBabyMaker · Post #93 » by **TheBabyMaker** » Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:17 pm

BigA wrote:
prime1time wrote:I will readjust and go to 22 games. We made so many mistakes. Hard to imagine any of those things will be fixed any time soon. We have guys on this roster literally trying to learn how to play professional basketball. Talk about load management and using advanced analytics to determine optimum minutes for each player really just means tanking. All in all, it makes sense. Tank this year and build for the future.

Whoa, from 44 to 22. That's a pretty big swing.

Probably more realistic.

dorianwrite · Post #94 » by **dorianwrite** » Sat Oct 26, 2019 1:17 pm

It was probably missed amid all the verbiage in my earlier post on this thread, but I predicted 38 wins and the 8th seed, and I am sticking to it.

dckingsfan · Post #95 » by **dckingsfan** » Sat Oct 26, 2019 3:48 pm

Final

38 - dorianwrite; rl25g
37 - BearlyBallin
36 - nuposse04; Doug_Blew
35 - WallToWall; Shoe
34 - youngWizzy; FiveThirtyeight; MDStar
33 - bgroban; queridiculo; Endless Loop; montestewart;
32 - dckingsfan; DCZards
31 - nate33; Illmatic12; Eli Babak; CntOutSmrtCrazy
30 - TGW; AFM; Bleacher Report; miller31time; I_Like_Dirt; DANNYLANDOVER
29 - payitforward; verbal8; 80sballboy
28 - doclinkin; Mojo Amok; daSwami; Kanyewest
27 - MarcoPolo; JAR69; FAH1223
26.5 - Vegas
26 - JWizmentality; closg00; long suffrin' boulez fan; dandridge 10
25 - dobrojim
24 - trast66
23 - CCJ; WizTom
22 - Dat2U; TheBabyMaker; prime1time
21 - BigA
20 - mrdonut
16 - bsilver

8th - dorianwrite
10th - DANNYLANDOVER
11th - youngWizzy; payitforward; montestewart; queridiculo
12th - dckingsfan; miller31time; I_Like_Dirt; Kanyewest
13th - BigA; Mojo Amok; trast66; JAR69; Eli Babak; dobrojim; WizTom
14th - TheBabyMaker

long suffrin' boulez fan · Post #96 » by **long suffrin' boulez fan** » Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:13 pm

So I can’t change my prediction to 81-1?

#overreaction

daSwami · Post #97 » by **daSwami** » Sun Oct 27, 2019 6:51 pm

long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:So I can’t change my prediction to 81-1?

#overreaction

For the love of all things sacred, predictions made after 8 PM on 10/23/19 should be asterisk'd or otherwise invalidated and their predictors summarily shamed.

Post #98 » by **montestewart** » Mon Oct 28, 2019 5:40 pm

daSwami wrote:
long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:So I can’t change my prediction to 81-1?

#overreaction

For the love of all things sacred, predictions made after 8 PM on 10/23/19 should be asterisk'd or otherwise invalidated and their predictors summarily shamed.

That is making me regret my failure to change my prediction. I would love to be known as the Roger Maris of Wizards predictons.

dckingsfan · Post #99 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:39 am

Interesting wide range of predictions this year.

Predictions: 47 (not including Vegas)
Mean: 29.34
Median: 30
Mode: 31
Range: 22

Post #100 » by **montestewart** » Tue Oct 29, 2019 1:55 am

dckingsfan wrote:Interesting wide range of predictions this year.

Predictions: 47 (not including Vegas)
Mean: 29.34
Median: 30
Mode: 31
Range: 22

In addition to the range of predictions about how good the team is, there is also the range of predictions about how management will approach the talent level: Maximum wins vs. player development and future assets.