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Well, it's that time again... Win's and ECF standings please. Any outrageous predictions welcome

Final predictions are due before the second game of the season.

Remember - you can have the same number of wins and still win by more accurately predicting the standings.

Mods - sticky this until the start of the season - please...

Last season predictions... Yes, we have had back to back misses. Time for us to nail these predictions!

FINAL
Exceptions - closg (no one responded - yes, you could have).

Mods, you can unsticky this thread...

56 - deneem4
55 - Wizardspride
54 -
53 -
52 -
51 - Illmatic12; gesa2; keynote; MDStar; Dat2U
50 - JWizmentality; Ted; miller31time; mrdonut
49 - FireErnie702; nuposse04; dangermouse; DCZards; WizBiz; Coach76
48 - fivethirtyeight; nate33; I_Like_Dirt; zero2hero; Kanyewest
47 - payitforward; DANNYLANDOVER; closg00; JAR69; dandridge 10; Ben Standig; DCKingsFan
46 - long suffrin' boulez fan; Halcyon; 80sballboy; youngWizzy; montestewart; Rafael122
45 - CobraCommander; Error Afflalo; daSwami; penbeast0
44.5 - Oddshark
44 - Eli Babak; queridiculo; 80sballboy; AFM; WizTom; TheBabyMaker; stilldropin20; TheBabyMaker; bulletproof_32; dobrojim
43 - Jay81; Nigel Tufnel; Wiz99
42 - Hidden Eye; trast66
41 - NatP4
40 - CCJ
39 - verbal8
38 - WallToWall; NatP4
37 - BigA;

1st - deneem4
2nd - Wizardspride
3rd - Illmatic12; gesa2; keynote; MDStar
4th - JWizmentality; FireErnie702; nuposse04; The Sportster; DANNYLANDOVER; dangermouse; nate33; DCZards; fivethirtyeight; youngWizzy; zero2hero; Dat2U; WizBiz; mrdonut
5th - CobraCommander; Eli Babak; closg00; I_Like_Dirt; Halcyon; 80sballboy; JAR69; dandridge 10; Kanyewest; Rafael122
6th - long suffrin' boulez fan; Error Afflalo; daSwami; penbeast0; TheBabyMaker; stilldropin20; AFM; TheBabyMaker; montestewart; bulletproof_32; DCKingsFan
7th - queridiculo; payitforward; Wiz99; Hidden Eye; trast66; WizTom; dobrojim
8th - WallToWall; NatP4
9th - CCJ; Nigel Tufnel; verbal8; NatP4;
10th - BigA

Stickied until the start of the season.

I'll start

32 wins, 11th same as last year.

Edit: 12th

I'm optimistic. 33 wins

30-52

34-48 11th

I was feeling 33 wins, but seeing the general optimism in this thread triggers my contrarian impulse. I'll go with 31 wins.

Lots of pundits and other experts are predicting win totals in the 24-28 range. I can't go that low because I think highly of the professionalism and attitude of this team. They're going to play hard every night, and they won't give up and start tanking by February. A team with one All-Star plus a bunch of guys who play real hard can't help but get to 30 wins in the East. There are a lot of bad teams in the East and we play in the worst division, the Southeast.

To start I'll take the over on Vegas: still calling for 26.5 wins.

Yes there's a drop off from last year's 30 win squad in losing Sato and Otto and even a wounded Wall. We replaced a capable Ariza and passable Jeff Green with untested youth.

We are one-deep at best on our starting 5 players, even minus one at key positions. Lack of quality starters leaves you vulnerable to injury if any go down for any real time.

We are young and learning. We have tank incentive in our development-over-wins mandate. And I don't see where we pick up any upgrade in defense or rebounding from the players we acquired. Unless Jemerrio Jones makes the team as a defensive super-sub.

And there will be a mid-season trade.

But Beal has determination to reach a supermax threshold, he will be focussed. Wall may return late. Bryant is developing nicely. Dean Oliver makes smart adjustments. Hachimura seems a legit starting caliber talent. And we are scrappy. Attitude goes a long way. We are deep in youth and energy, so we can afford to play whomever is working hardest. Teams will overlook this team as an easy out but be surprised that the young cats keep testing them all night.

I'll go +2 on Vegas. Call it 28.5 Gut says 28. I'd be happy with anything above that. So I'll set my sights low and hope to be pleasantly surprised.

Still. The running and gunning style will make this the most exciting sub- 30-win squad we have seen in a long time. Watching young cats sort it all out. A late run may jeopardize our tank position before front office mandate rests various players with minor injuries and load management. And even then the Baby Wizlets and Beal fighting for all-NBA status will likely pull off a nailbiter win or two against teams that have given up or secured playoff position.

I would have gone for 28, but Doc has it. I'm going to be optimistic & go for 29-53 (even though I really feel like being *wildly* optimistic at 37-45).

edit: forgot to put in ec position -- 11th spot!

Nice even 30 wins.

36 wins, kinda optimistic...but the nats got me feelin good.

10/15th 29-53 13th

Edit: 10/17th can I change my prediction before deadline?

22-60 13th

Reasoning from Degenerate Gambler thread (1-7 covered by PIF in great detail over there):

1. We lose Sato and Wall,
2. Wall's replacements suck unless IT returns to form and plays lots of minutes,
3. Hopefully Beal won't play as many minutes,
4. improved Brown likely not as good as Ariza/Dekker were,
5. Probably only slightly better at PF if at all unless Rui steps right up as an at least average starter,
6. Bryant can't play 48 minutes and back-up C will suck barring a miracle (e.g. Wagner somehow playable),
7. Depending on good play at significant minutes from at least 2-3 of: Bonga, Robinson, Mathews, Jones, & Schofield,
8. Any significant time lost to injury for Beal or Bryant in particular will be a disaster,
9. Brooks sucks,
10. They will fire Brooks at some point because he sucks and then tank.

I will probably still enjoy this year more than the last few with lower expectations.

Loss of Sato is big, yes. But, Wall was already bad last year.

I think an improved Brown could be as good as or even better than Ariza/Dekker. I also think we might be more than a little improved at PF. Finally, if Mahinmi is healthy, I see no reason why he can't be a perfectly good backup Center.

Your 7-10 are right on. & I agree with your last sentence: me too!

BigA wrote:22-60 13th

Reasoning from Degenerate Gambler thread (1-7 covered by PIF in great detail over there):

1. We lose Sato and Wall,
2. Wall's replacements suck unless IT returns to form and plays lots of minutes,
3. Hopefully Beal won't play as many minutes,
4. improved Brown likely not as good as Ariza/Dekker were,
5. Probably only slightly better at PF if at all unless Rui steps right up as an at least average starter,
6. Bryant can't play 48 minutes and back-up C will suck barring a miracle (e.g. Wagner somehow playable),
7. Depending on good play at significant minutes from at least 2-3 of: Bonga, Robinson, Mathews, Jones, & Schofield,
8. Any significant time lost to injury for Beal or Bryant in particular will be a disaster,
9. Brooks sucks,
10. They will fire Brooks at some point because he sucks and then tank.

I will probably still enjoy this year more than the last few with lower expectations.

Ouch!

Is there a little rain cloud that follows you around wherever you go?

nate33 wrote:

BigA wrote:22-60 13th

Reasoning from Degenerate Gambler thread (1-7 covered by PIF in great detail over there):

1. We lose Sato and Wall,
2. Wall's replacements suck unless IT returns to form and plays lots of minutes,
3. Hopefully Beal won't play as many minutes,
4. improved Brown likely not as good as Ariza/Dekker were,
5. Probably only slightly better at PF if at all unless Rui steps right up as an at least average starter,
6. Bryant can't play 48 minutes and back-up C will suck barring a miracle (e.g. Wagner somehow playable),
7. Depending on good play at significant minutes from at least 2-3 of: Bonga, Robinson, Mathews, Jones, & Schofield,
8. Any significant time lost to injury for Beal or Bryant in particular will be a disaster,
9. Brooks sucks,
10. They will fire Brooks at some point because he sucks and then tank.

I will probably still enjoy this year more than the last few with lower expectations.

Ouch!

Is there a little rain cloud that follows you around wherever you go?

Ha! I was too optimistic last year, so I'm making up for that.

You want dark? Here are a few more:

11. Even if Wall comes back there's a significant probability that he's finished as a starting-caliber player. He will prove unable to coast on his physical gifts anymore, and unable/unwilling to adjust his game to fit the modern NBA. He'll be healthy enough to play, so the cap drag will remain until he becomes an expiring contract.

12. I have a nagging suspicion that Ted's elevation of Sheppard was a "rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic" sort of move. There will be occasional good moves, particularly as long as they stay in rebuilding mode, but over time we'll start seeing the familiar combination of squandering assets, desperation moves, and ass-covering that we came to know and love so much in the Grunfeld era come back big time.

13. I like Beal and think he's really good, but he's not AS good as this board (or Ted) thinks he is. The best move long-term for the franchise will be to trade him when he's at maximum value (this coming trade deadline). He will either qualify for the supermax and sign with the Wizards or leave in free agency or demand a trade if he doesn't qualify.

14. Brooks still sucks.

I'd like to revise my prediction to 26 wins...because this team is still run by dimwits.

I said 28 wins on the front page of the Degenerate Gambler thread and I'm sticking with that now. 13th in the East (ahead of Charlotte and Cleveland, but not the New York Journeyman Power Forwards).

Overall, a fairly low win total isn't necessarily true pessimism this year as a bit of stink has been strategically baked into the pie. Also, with the low expectations, they can still be cohesive as a unit with a touch of the feel-goods even with a good bit of losing.

There is a fair chance of naked late-season tanking like we saw last year too - even if they could win 32 games, I'm not sure if they're going to prioritize that.

16 wins. Worst team in the league.

Weren't good last year, and major drop-off at PG and SF. Cuts of Jones and Anderson will also cost a few games, although neither makes much difference long term. No decent backup C.

However, future looks promising if Wall comes back near old level. Rui and TBjr will be good in the future. Bryant is already good. Should get a good player in the next draft.