Post#3 » by nate33 » Fri Nov 22, 2019 5:21 pm
I'll elaborate a bit.
First, I'm happy I don't have to make a choice right now. I really like both guys and it's far too early to predict how they'll pan out. There is a lot of uncertainty, particularly with Wagner. But it's Wagner's uncertainty that makes me lean toward him a bit more. I think I have a sense of what Bryant's ceiling will be, but Wagner's could be much higher (or much lower).
We all understand the strengths and weakness of Bryant. He's a very hard worker with high energy. He has a great length but sub-par mobility and athleticism. And despite a solid frame, he's not really very strong in the lower body. He's as good as they get as a roll-man with very nice hands and touch around the basket, and he is improving as a pick-setter. He has decent shooting form and can hit from midrange, and I think it's likely he'll develop 3-point range. And Bryant is actually quite good as a passer. Defensively, he is not very good. He works hard and tries to contest shots, but he just doesn't have quick enough feet or a quick enough leap to be much of a rim protector. And when he does protect the rim, he has to sell out to do so, leaving him out of position for the defensive board. While I think his defensive instincts and sense of spacing are likely to improve over time, I just don't think he can overcome his physical limitations enough to be anything better than an average defender, and probably not even that. And I certainly wouldn't characterize him as a savant defensively. I don't think he's got terrible instincts or anything, but he doesn't have an elite sense of anticipating how a play develops like a Draymond Green or Marc Gasol; and surely never will.
Defense is the most important task for a defender, and I don't think Bryant will ever be better than average defensively. Ultimately, if he's our starter, I fear that the team's ceiling will be limited, even if Bryant pans out to be the best he can be offensively. I really worry that he'll be in the Enes Kanter/Julius Randle/Nikola Vucevic spectrum of players. The numbers look great, but the impact is less so. And you can usually find those guys in free agency whenever you need them.
Wagner is more difficult to project because we have a much smaller sample size. Like Bryant, he is hyper competitive and high energy, which you gotta love. He seems just as adept as Bryant at finishing as a roll man, but he's also a much better catch-and-shoot player with a deadly 3-point shot. He has a soft touch like Bryant around the rim. I don't think his hands are quite as soft though. Bryant catches everything. Mo doesn't have stone hands or anything, but I don't think soft hands are necessarily his strength. Wagner has better offensive instincts than Bryant though. He really does a great job of moving in space to get himself open and he takes only good shots. He doesn't pass quite as well, but why pass it when your TS% is 74%? Defense is the question for me with Wagner. The on/off numbers say he's much better than Bryant, but some of that is because he is facing backups. Wagner is quicker on his feet and a quicker leaper, but he isn't as long so he has to jump more to block shots and commits more fouls doing so. And that brings us to the elephant in the room - the terrible foul rate. He didn't foul very often last year so it's hard to know if the foul rate is intrinsic to his play or a conscious decision because he knows he only needs to play 25 minutes as a backup. Some of those fouls are from setting screens, which he'll certainly improve upon (and that will also reduce his turnover rate).
Overall, I just get a sense that Wagner has better basketball instincts. He knows where to be at both ends of the floor more so than Bryant. And I think many of his turnovers are just because the game hasn't quite slowed down for him yet. He sets too many moving screens or tries to do a bit too much with the ball in traffic around the rim. I think that will improve in time. I also think Wagner can get stronger without losing athleticism - which will improve his post D and rebounding. Ultimately, I think Wagner can be everything that Bryant is, but with better instincts and athleticism and better perimeter shooting, albeit with worse hands.
His TS% on the year was lower, however: .674. OTOH it was over @1500 minutes. We can't assume Mo will maintain his current clip, obviously, but we can't downgrade it either. 
