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In the trade thread, nate asked me...

nate33 wrote:Who do you value more, PIF? Wagner or Bryant?

...& opined:

If you made me choose one or the other right now, I'd choose Wagner. I just think his defensive ceiling is higher, and his stretch 5 ability makes things easier for his teammates.

I'm guessing this question is a live one for a lot of folks here. Seemed like it would be fun to discuss it on its own.

If you know me, you know that I don't rate Wagner on the same tier with Bryant. But, I hope it's obvious that no one can know for sure how either of these kids will work out -- they might both turn out to be terrific players, or neither of them may be all that.

What is sure, I think, is that there'll be some active talk about the subject!

Just for starters -- in 231 minutes so far, Mo Wagner has been an unbelievable shooter: he's posting a .74 TS% on significant usage. The closest thing I can remember to this in a Wizards uniform is... Thomas Bryant last year! His TS% on the year was lower, however: .674. OTOH it was over @1500 minutes. We can't assume Mo will maintain his current clip, obviously, but we can't downgrade it either.

So... what do you think?

I'll elaborate a bit.

First, I'm happy I don't have to make a choice right now. I really like both guys and it's far too early to predict how they'll pan out. There is a lot of uncertainty, particularly with Wagner. But it's Wagner's uncertainty that makes me lean toward him a bit more. I think I have a sense of what Bryant's ceiling will be, but Wagner's could be much higher (or much lower).

We all understand the strengths and weakness of Bryant. He's a very hard worker with high energy. He has a great length but sub-par mobility and athleticism. And despite a solid frame, he's not really very strong in the lower body. He's as good as they get as a roll-man with very nice hands and touch around the basket, and he is improving as a pick-setter. He has decent shooting form and can hit from midrange, and I think it's likely he'll develop 3-point range. And Bryant is actually quite good as a passer. Defensively, he is not very good. He works hard and tries to contest shots, but he just doesn't have quick enough feet or a quick enough leap to be much of a rim protector. And when he does protect the rim, he has to sell out to do so, leaving him out of position for the defensive board. While I think his defensive instincts and sense of spacing are likely to improve over time, I just don't think he can overcome his physical limitations enough to be anything better than an average defender, and probably not even that. And I certainly wouldn't characterize him as a savant defensively. I don't think he's got terrible instincts or anything, but he doesn't have an elite sense of anticipating how a play develops like a Draymond Green or Marc Gasol; and surely never will.

Defense is the most important task for a defender, and I don't think Bryant will ever be better than average defensively. Ultimately, if he's our starter, I fear that the team's ceiling will be limited, even if Bryant pans out to be the best he can be offensively. I really worry that he'll be in the Enes Kanter/Julius Randle/Nikola Vucevic spectrum of players. The numbers look great, but the impact is less so. And you can usually find those guys in free agency whenever you need them.

Wagner is more difficult to project because we have a much smaller sample size. Like Bryant, he is hyper competitive and high energy, which you gotta love. He seems just as adept as Bryant at finishing as a roll man, but he's also a much better catch-and-shoot player with a deadly 3-point shot. He has a soft touch like Bryant around the rim. I don't think his hands are quite as soft though. Bryant catches everything. Mo doesn't have stone hands or anything, but I don't think soft hands are necessarily his strength. Wagner has better offensive instincts than Bryant though. He really does a great job of moving in space to get himself open and he takes only good shots. He doesn't pass quite as well, but why pass it when your TS% is 74%? Defense is the question for me with Wagner. The on/off numbers say he's much better than Bryant, but some of that is because he is facing backups. Wagner is quicker on his feet and a quicker leaper, but he isn't as long so he has to jump more to block shots and commits more fouls doing so. And that brings us to the elephant in the room - the terrible foul rate. He didn't foul very often last year so it's hard to know if the foul rate is intrinsic to his play or a conscious decision because he knows he only needs to play 25 minutes as a backup. Some of those fouls are from setting screens, which he'll certainly improve upon (and that will also reduce his turnover rate).

Overall, I just get a sense that Wagner has better basketball instincts. He knows where to be at both ends of the floor more so than Bryant. And I think many of his turnovers are just because the game hasn't quite slowed down for him yet. He sets too many moving screens or tries to do a bit too much with the ball in traffic around the rim. I think that will improve in time. I also think Wagner can get stronger without losing athleticism - which will improve his post D and rebounding. Ultimately, I think Wagner can be everything that Bryant is, but with better instincts and athleticism and better perimeter shooting, albeit with worse hands.

My friend Reece N.C. Bias and I think Wagner.

This is a fun exercise - probably because it's a great problem to have. Both just 22 years old. I'd go with Bryant over Swagner. Wagner has good hands, but Bryant has as good hands as any big in the NBA - and I've seen him turn plays that could/would/should have been Mahinmi sure to's into 2 points a lot of times. And that's a big part of why he led the NBA in shooting percentage near the rim. He's also a little better rebounder. I think they're both unselfish smart passers who will continue to improve in that area. Both excellent screeners in the Gortat mode - but Waggy is more likely to commit offensive fouls there. Wagner is a tougher defender at this point, but he's leading the league in fouls, and that evens them up right now. Both have upside defensively - Waggs stops fouling and Bryant gets stronger legs - Bryant has tremendous length - better than Wagner's. Wagner has the better 3 point shot now, but Bryant will close that gap some.

Bottom line - picture Gortat in his prime - with a feathery 3 point shot. I think that's Wagner's best case, but he's got a ways to go to get there - stop the defensive fouls, improve his rebounding. Bryant is longer with a great frame but is still not as stout defensively and has trouble defending pnr. He's unstoppable near the basket and a better rebounder. His length gives him advantages that he's still learning to use. And we've seen him have a fine rookie year. I think all that makes him the more valuable player to have on the roster.

As nate points out, we don't really have to choose between these two guys -- we've got them both, & we have control of them both. At very high-value salaries as well. Well done Tommy Sheppard!

I'm actually kind of stunned by anyone's preference for Wagner over Bryant. For one thing, as long sufferin' points out, it reflects recency bias. &, since something more than 10% of Wagner's season numbers so far are contributed by his unbelievable game of a few nights ago, I'm not inclined to take them at full value (though, of course, that would be great).

In addition, a fair amount of the positivity is based on what "I think" is going to happen with Wagner. OTOH, Bryant simply is "not... strong in the lower body." Apparently, he isn't going to get stronger?

Now... I don't want to make more of that than it warrants -- mostly it's just that having seen more of Bryant we put more faith in what we've seen. In Mo's case, it's hard not to be giddy about his last few games -- especially when you consider that a month or so ago we were hoping someone would give us a R2 pick for him!

Of course, I may be subject to a reverse version of the same thing: I know how amazing Bryant was last year; I see no reason why he can't return to that level & get even better (after all, he was 21 last year!). But, I don't *know* that; I believe it -- a different matter.

Is there a reason to compare them? Wagner is more of a power forward than a center IMO. Bryant is strictly a center. They can both play on the court at the same time IMO.

Ruzious wrote:This is a fun exercise - probably because it's a great problem to have. Both just 22 years old. I'd go with Bryant over Swagner. Wagner has good hands, but Bryant has as good hands as any big in the NBA - and I've seen him turn plays that could/would/should have been Mahinmi sure to's into 2 points a lot of times. And that's a big part of why he led the NBA in shooting percentage near the rim. He's also a little better rebounder. I think they're both unselfish smart passers who will continue to improve in that area. Both excellent screeners in the Gortat mode - but Waggy is more likely to commit offensive fouls there. Wagner is a tougher defender at this point, but he's leading the league in fouls, and that evens them up right now. Both have upside defensively - Waggs stops fouling and Bryant gets stronger legs - Bryant has tremendous length - better than Wagner's. Wagner has the better 3 point shot now, but Bryant will close that gap some.

Bottom line - picture Gortat in his prime - with a feathery 3 point shot. I think that's Wagner's best case, but he's got a ways to go to get there - stop the defensive fouls, improve his rebounding. Bryant is longer with a great frame but is still not as stout defensively and has trouble defending pnr. He's unstoppable near the basket and a better rebounder. His length gives him advantages that he's still learning to use. And we've seen him have a fine rookie year. I think all that makes him the more valuable player to have on the roster.

Fair enough. My only quibble is that I'm not so sure Bryant is a better rebounder. Their rebounding rates are almost identical (Bryant at 16.3% versus Wagner at 15.8%) and I think Wagner has a little bit more leeway to grow into his frame over time, so I think he has more potential to improve his rebounding ability.

I think the other questions are who to pair with Rui (defensively). Who would work best with Wall after he returns (pick and roll).

But yeah, having two solid Cs is awfully nice.

TGW wrote:Is there a reason to compare them? Wagner is more of a power forward than a center IMO. Bryant is strictly a center. They can both play on the court at the same time IMO.

This is 2019. Mo Wagner is a center. He might be able to steal a few minutes at PF but he's a center.

So...what has Ian been up to?

Mo has the higher upside on both sides of the ball. Next year and beyond I expect TB to be the guy that comes off the bench and provides a nice scoring punch for 20-25 mpg. In the short term I think the lineups will stay the same as Mo has a bad fouling problem and probably couldn’t stay on the floor for a full game if he started. The cool thing is because both guys can shoot playing them at the same time is doable if not ideal.

Maybe this would be helpful in considering how we should view Mo's scoring & his on/off numbers (which nate also mentioned).

In our season opener. Mo played 17 minutes. In that short stint, he went 1-1 on 2-pointers, 3-4 on 3-pointers, & 2-2 from the line. 13 points on 5 shots & 2 FTs. Wow, huh? Quite a start towards that .74 TS%, no?

Not only that, but he was +5 in on/off.

Great outing, right? Unfortunately... the answer is "no." Not right. Not a great outing.

Mo played much of the 4th quarter. We went into that quarter down by 23 points. Game was over. Defense consisted of making time go by: sure, we outscored the Mavs 32-17 in that quarter, but we never threatened. Hence, I give very little weight to Mo's scoring hijinx that night & no weight whatever to our being up by 5 points when he was on the floor.

But, wait, there's more: in his 17 minutes, Mo also turned the ball over 5 times! & he fouled out! 6 fouls in 17 minutes!

nate33 wrote:

TGW wrote:Is there a reason to compare them? Wagner is more of a power forward than a center IMO. Bryant is strictly a center. They can both play on the court at the same time IMO.

This is 2019. Mo Wagner is a center. He might be able to steal a few minutes at PF but he's a center.

In a way, both are good points.

The main reason to compare them is that it's interesting to do it. It lets us dig a little deeper than we would ordinarily into what makes a guy good or "non-good."

At the same time the reason not to compare them is that there's no real-world situation that demands it. As everybody points out, we've got them both, we've got no reason to move either of them any time soon -- we're not assessing two guys off their resumes, recommendations & interviews in order to figure out which one to hire.

We won our 2d game pretty easily. Again Wagner shot well -- 10 points on 7 shots / 2 FTAs. 7 boards. &... he only committed 1 foul in his 17 minutes. Good. But... once again he turned it over 5 times in 17 minutes.

Since someone noted his positive on/off numbers -- he was +9 that night -- let me point out that Garrison Mathews played almost as many minutes as Wagner that night (13). He was 0-2, managed 1 defensive board & 1 assist, turned it over once & fouled 3 times. We were +5 with him on the floor. OTOH, Admiral played only 10 minutes, took 2 shots, both 3-pointers, & 1 FTA. He made them all. He grabbed 5 rebounds, 2 of them offensive boards that extended possessions. Committed 0 fouls & 0 turnovers. We were only +3. Individual plus/minus numbers are meaningless; they correlate to nothing.

Love the Bryant/Wagner tandem for 10M each of the next 3 years...
but I think i would look to move Bryant this summer if a great package presented itself and then backup Wagner with a shotblocker like Noel with the MLE

But again... It would have to be a real strong package, not some expiring plus late 1st nonsense

I wouldn't be looking to move either guy. If you have a productive big on a cheap contract you keep them.

As far as choosing between them I didn't watch last season hardly at all. Hard to make meaningful comparisons after so few games. At the All-Star break I might have a stronger opinion.

J-Ves wrote:Mo has the higher upside on both sides of the ball. Next year and beyond I expect TB to be the guy that comes off the bench and provides a nice scoring punch for 20-25 mpg. In the short term I think the lineups will stay the same as Mo has a bad fouling problem and probably couldn’t stay on the floor for a full game if he started. The cool thing is because both guys can shoot playing them at the same time is doable if not ideal.

I can't wait to remind you of what you "expect." I suppose you also "expect" his 51.6% 3-point percentage to continue as well? Right? Along with the 69% 2 pt. %

After all, if a guy can do it for 231 minutes, why shouldn't he be able to do it for 2500 minutes. In fact, with his "higher upside," we should expect him to improve his 3-pt. shooting, right? Isn't that what usually happens?

payitforward wrote:

J-Ves wrote:Mo has the higher upside on both sides of the ball. Next year and beyond I expect TB to be the guy that comes off the bench and provides a nice scoring punch for 20-25 mpg. In the short term I think the lineups will stay the same as Mo has a bad fouling problem and probably couldn’t stay on the floor for a full game if he started. The cool thing is because both guys can shoot playing them at the same time is doable if not ideal.

I can't wait to remind you of what you "expect." I suppose you also "expect" his 51.6% 3-point percentage to continue as well? Right? Along with the 69% 2 pt. %

After all, if a guy can do it for 231 minutes, why shouldn't he be able to do it for 2500 minutes. In fact, with his "higher upside," we should expect him to improve his 3-pt. shooting, right? Isn't that what usually happens?

I truly, honestly believe that by next season Mo will be shooting 100% from every conceivable spot on the floor including half/full court heaves.