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Go For It?
Posted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 2:35 pm
by likwitdesi
As it stands today, this team, despite trying to tank is sitting in the 9th seed. A big piece of this is that this is the worst Eastern Conference I can remember. There are no great teams - only a few solid teams.
Rather than trying to suck in order to pick up another lower lottery pick, I believe this team should try to make a run this season. If this team were to make an effort, a run to the ECF is realistic. Beal is reaching a whole new level in his game and we have one of the best frontcourts in the conference when factoring in the bench guys.
In order to compete in the playoffs, two actions would push this team toward a serious run - activate Wall (pushing IT to the bench and inherently making this team have at least an average defense) and pick up a 3 and D forward to start in place of Troy Brown, someone like a DeMarre Carroll (who may be available on the cheap if SAS has a selloff)
What do you all think?
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 2:40 pm
by BigA
likwitdesi wrote:As it stands today, this team, despite trying to tank is sitting in the 9th seed. A big piece of this is that this is the worst Eastern Conference I can remember. There are no great teams - only a few solid teams.
Rather than trying to suck in order to pick up another lower lottery pick, I believe this team should try to make a run this season. If this team were to make an effort, a run to the ECF is realistic. Beal is reaching a whole new level in his game and we have one of the best frontcourts in the conference when factoring in the bench guys.
In order to compete in the playoffs, two actions would push this team toward a serious run - activate Wall (pushing IT to the bench and inherently making this team have at least an average defense) and pick up a 3 and D forward to start in place of Troy Brown, someone like a DeMarre Carroll (who may be available on the cheap if SAS has a selloff)
What do you all think?
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 2:49 pm
by Mojo Amok
I would just see what happens with this particular roster and let them chips fall where they may. Just play it conservatively at the deadline: perhaps trading IT if there's any kind of value and Wall is scheduled to come back...maybe there's an offer for Miles? Sure, but probably not.
If the incumbent roster gets us a high pick, great. If the incumbent roster gets us towards or into the playoffs, fine. At least it's built on the contributions of a number of young players. Just still emphasize development regardless of the win results, which seems like what is going on right now. Guys are having their minutes jerked around a bit on a nightly basis and sometimes younger players get less minutes, but I believe this is happening in a constructive manner.
The East does smell of a ripe cadaver, but the roster isn't in position to do anything all that grand as of this exact moment.
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 3:12 pm
by Ruzious
It's funny - we have a veteran in IT that is effectively helping us tank. Usually you play the kids when you're trying to tank. But yeah, I agree with what Mojo said, and I'd emphasize not trading for a veteran in an attempt to make the playoffs - that would be unfortunate.
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 3:30 pm
by nate33
If, by "go for it", all you mean is to try real hard and win every game and let the chips fall where they may, I'm fine with it. I'm not all that interested in intentionally losing to move up in the draft. But if you mean that we sacrifice any future assets whatsoever to improve our win now chances, I'm absolutely opposed.
And sacrificing future assets can mean many things. I'd be against any of the following:
- Trading a future pick
- Trading Brown, Bryant, Hachimura or Wagner
- Running Beal into the ground in an attempt to win 38 games instead of 34.
- Tying up future cap beyond 2021 in any player age 27 or older.
- Playing John Wall any sooner than when he is absolutely ready.
I think the only future-for-now type of trade I'd consider would be to trade 2020-21 cap space for a bit more help now - something like Miles + IT for a decent vet with a 2021 expiring contract. I don't think those trades are available though. Nobody is willing to give up value to get under the cap in 2020-21 because there aren't any good free agents and nobody has pressing luxtax problems (except Portland who doesn't seem to care).
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 3:43 pm
by long suffrin' boulez fan
I’m glad you started this thread. I’ve been having similar thoughts. But it’s a hard choice. On one hand, our offense is borderline beautiful. It feels like we can get whatever shot we want on any possession. And we have such an incredible variety of scorers. On the other hand. The defense. Short of getting Kawhi Leonard - a beast perimeter defender and two way player - I don’t know how to improve with this core.
I’m honestly also not sure how Wall will mesh.
What is kind of tempting is, if we hover around .500 for a few weeks, bringing back Wall a little earlier than midway. I realize that would cost Ted more bucks than he is likely wanting to spend. But from a purely basketball perspective, it would be great to take stock of what a rotation that subs out IT for Wall would be like like prior to the trade deadline.
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 3:54 pm
by payitforward
First off, as of today Bradley Beal is playing, overall, at almost exactly the same level as he did last year. But -- since his usage, already extremely high, has gone up close to 20% -- that does amount to a significant overall improvement. Maybe "whole new level" is a bit of an overstatement, yet, it's worth recognizing how well Brad is playing!
Plus, tho Troy Brown had a bit of an off night last night (still... when a wing gets you 6 boards in 20 minutes it's not to be overlooked), he is playing extremely well overall. Substituting Demarre Carroll (assuming he was available) would not be an improvement. It would be a downgrade. OTOH, in fairness, if Carroll came off the bench, he would provide an upgrade over C.J. Miles, that much is true. Plus, who would we trade for him? There's no one on the roster I want to trade for him at this point -- other than Miles, that is; obviously that's not a trade to interest SA. If we acquired him some other way, it would mean we'd have to let go of either McRae (who is playing as well as, or better than, Carroll anyway) or Robinson (no thanks).
We're 5-8 -- there is no doubt that virtually all of us are shocked by that record! OTOH, 5 teams in the East have gone 7-3 or better in their last 10 games. Sacrificing our future in order to get whomped by one of those teams in R1 of the playoffs would seem foolish. The idea that we have a potential run to the ECF is... oh come on, man!
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:04 pm
by payitforward
Ruzious wrote:It's funny - we have a veteran in IT that is effectively helping us tank. Usually you play the kids when you're trying to tank. But yeah, I agree with what Mojo said, and I'd emphasize not trading for a veteran in an attempt to make the playoffs - that would be unfortunate.
It is funny -- but IT ain't being all that "effective!"
We're 3-1 in our last 4 games -- & up 30 points overall to the league!
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:20 pm
by nate33
payitforward wrote:Ruzious wrote:It's funny - we have a veteran in IT that is effectively helping us tank. Usually you play the kids when you're trying to tank. But yeah, I agree with what Mojo said, and I'd emphasize not trading for a veteran in an attempt to make the playoffs - that would be unfortunate.
It is funny -- but IT ain't being all that "effective!"
We're 3-1 in our last 4 games -- & up 30 points overall to the league!
Yet somehow, IT is only +1 during that stretch.
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:54 pm
by Meliorus
I really do think getting a pick from 1-10 is not different than getting a pick from 10-15 in this year's draft, and I assume going for it just means trying hard to win. The rest of the league is not tanking either because this isn't a strong draft at the top. In that case, yes, I see nothing wrong with getting guys like Troy Brown, Bryant and Wagner playoff reps.
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 7:20 pm
by tontoz
I think we can rule out tanking. Beal won't allow it, plus we have a lot of hungry young players trying to prove themselves.
At the same time i am not interested in making short term trades (unless it means getting rid of IT). I think we should just play out the season get a better idea what we have. I am also curious to see how Wall fits with this group.
At this point i am strongly in favor of resigning Bertans. We already have two guys in Beal/Wall who will be doing the bulk of the ball handling. Having an off ball threat like Bertans is a big asset. Porter was similar but he wasn't as aggressive looking for his shot which limited his effectiveness. Plus Bertans has a higher release so he can go up even when a defender is close to him.
I can't see us being able to get anyone as good as him with the MLE.
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Sat Nov 23, 2019 7:24 pm
by payitforward
nate33 wrote:payitforward wrote:Ruzious wrote:It's funny - we have a veteran in IT that is effectively helping us tank. Usually you play the kids when you're trying to tank. But yeah, I agree with what Mojo said, and I'd emphasize not trading for a veteran in an attempt to make the playoffs - that would be unfortunate.
It is funny -- but IT ain't being all that "effective!"
We're 3-1 in our last 4 games -- & up 30 points overall to the league!
Yet somehow, IT is only +1 during that stretch.
IT isn't playing well overall, though he is shooting the 3 at a career-high % & he's collecting assists at a career-high level too.
It's a Scylla & Charybdis thing: we want him to play well enough that we can turn him for a good 2020 pick at the deadline. But, we don't want him to play well enough that he improves our record & (potentially) causes us to have a lower pick in R1.
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2019 1:48 am
by prime1time
I don't think we go for it, I think we just play basketball. But for people who are worried about missing out on a high draft pick, I'd point to the Nets as an example of what can happen if you just let things develop. With Beal playing the way he's playing and potentially leading us to the playoffs, stars around the league are going to take notice. Obviously, there are multiple blocks in our in way (mainly Wall's contract) but we just have to let things develop naturally. Plus, there will still be good players to be had in the middle of the first round.
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:22 am
by payitforward
prime1time wrote:I don't think we go for it, I think we just play basketball. But for people who are worried about missing out on a high draft pick, I'd point to the Nets as an example of what can happen if you just let things develop. With Beal playing the way he's playing and potentially leading us to the playoffs, stars around the league are going to take notice. Obviously, there are multiple blocks in our in way (mainly Wall's contract) but we just have to let things develop naturally. Plus, there will still be good players to be had in the middle of the first round.
I think that's word for word & 100% correct.
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:33 am
by payitforward
tontoz wrote:I think we can rule out tanking. Beal won't allow it, plus we have a lot of hungry young players trying to prove themselves.
At the same time i am not interested in making short term trades (unless it means getting rid of IT). I think we should just play out the season get a better idea what we have. I am also curious to see how Wall fits with this group.
At this point i am strongly in favor of resigning Bertans. We already have two guys in Beal/Wall who will be doing the bulk of the ball handling. Having an off ball threat like Bertans is a big asset. Porter was similar but he wasn't as aggressive looking for his shot which limited his effectiveness. Plus Bertans has a higher release so he can go up even when a defender is close to him.
I can't see us being able to get anyone as good as him with the MLE.
This too seems on the money.
As to re-signing Davis Bertans -- if he plays the season out at this level, he may get offers we can't match. But... maybe.
We have 10 guys signed for next year, including Bonga & Robinson, for $99.27m. Assuming we add a R1 & a R2 player out of next year's draft, & we also re-sign McRae for @$3m, we'll be at @$110m for 13 guys. Not as bad as I thought!
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:03 am
by likwitdesi
By no means am I saying we should go sell off key young assets or first round picks to make a playoff run this year. I am just saying that if the opportunity is there to pick up someone who can be a functional 3 & D guy with good rebounding without sacrificing those named assets, it is certainly a move this team should consider. The Magic is one team with a number of these guys who are top 10 in the league in payroll without achieving the results they'd like
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:50 pm
by payitforward
likwitdesi wrote:As it stands today, this team, despite trying to tank is sitting in the 9th seed. A big piece of this is that this is the worst Eastern Conference I can remember. There are no great teams - only a few solid teams.
Rather than trying to suck in order to pick up another lower lottery pick, I believe this team should try to make a run this season. If this team were to make an effort, a run to the ECF is realistic. Beal is reaching a whole new level in his game and we have one of the best frontcourts in the conference when factoring in the bench guys.
In order to compete in the playoffs, two actions would push this team toward a serious run - activate Wall (pushing IT to the bench and inherently making this team have at least an average defense) and pick up a 3 and D forward to start in place of Troy Brown, someone like a DeMarre Carroll (who may be available on the cheap if SAS has a selloff)
What do you all think?
Here's what's funny: we are 1/2 game out of the 8th spot -- now held by Orlando. They play the Raptors today, & for the purposes of this post I am assuming they will lose.
At that point, we'll be tied for the 8th spot! If we were to beat the Lakers a few hours later... we would hold the 8th spot on our own!
Alas... I don't think we'll beat the Lakers. Still... it's possible!
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:55 pm
by payitforward
But wait -- there's more!
Right now, we are down 1.4 pts per game to the league. 12 teams have a worse differential. 15 have a better differential. & Portland & OKC are tied with us.
If we beat the Lakers by 10 or more points, 14 teams will have better differential & 15 a worse differential. We will, in theory, be an above average team!
Go Wizards!
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Fri Nov 29, 2019 3:08 pm
by nate33
payitforward wrote:likwitdesi wrote:As it stands today, this team, despite trying to tank is sitting in the 9th seed. A big piece of this is that this is the worst Eastern Conference I can remember. There are no great teams - only a few solid teams.
Rather than trying to suck in order to pick up another lower lottery pick, I believe this team should try to make a run this season. If this team were to make an effort, a run to the ECF is realistic. Beal is reaching a whole new level in his game and we have one of the best frontcourts in the conference when factoring in the bench guys.
In order to compete in the playoffs, two actions would push this team toward a serious run - activate Wall (pushing IT to the bench and inherently making this team have at least an average defense) and pick up a 3 and D forward to start in place of Troy Brown, someone like a DeMarre Carroll (who may be available on the cheap if SAS has a selloff)
What do you all think?
Here's what's funny: we are 1/2 game out of the 8th spot -- now held by Orlando. They play the Raptors today, & for the purposes of this post I am assuming they will lose.
At that point, we'll be tied for the 8th spot! If we were to beat the Lakers a few hours later... we would hold the 8th spot on our own!
Alas... I don't think we'll beat the Lakers. Still... it's possible!
Realistically, I think the 8 teams in the East that are currently ahead of us will remain ahead of us - the 6 good teams plus Brooklyn and Orlando. I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit and/or Chicago eventually pass us too. I think both of those teams will look better as the season progresses. So I figure we will finish 10th or 11th in the East, which would be a fine season IMO.
If Wall comes back after 41 games and plays pretty well, we might finish 9th.
Re: Go For It?
Posted: Fri Nov 29, 2019 4:07 pm
by payitforward
Agree -- I wasn't really suggesting we are competing for the playoffs.
What's really nice is that a bunch of moves look good in retrospect -- even in cases where there's not nearly enough data to draw firm conclusions. Wagner, Bonga, Schofield, McRae, Bertans, Bryant, even Smith. All the decisions that got us these guys look smart at this point. While the obvious whiffs, Miles & IT, will be gone next year.