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2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s)

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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#121 » by payitforward » Fri Mar 6, 2020 8:36 pm

doclinkin wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Have you checked out Governor Terry Taylor from Austin Peay? When I watched him last season, I couldn't tell if he was slow or... deliberate.

This is one of those Small School Big Stat type players. I tend to shy away from this sort of profile since you can't see how they fare against (literally) bigger teams. Whether no neck types or beanstalks or athELITE types there's commonly a deflation when they encounter real competition. Usually the rebounding stays the same but the FG% and efficiency drops off. At West Virginia Huggins usually has a pretty brutal schedule.

Looks like Austin Peay played WV and both Oscar and Terry played well. I'll look deeper at Terry Taylor.

Basketballreference lists Taylor as a guard. Is that correct?

If so, then his numbers are kinda mind-boggling.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#122 » by Ruzious » Fri Mar 6, 2020 11:13 pm

payitforward wrote:
doclinkin wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Have you checked out Governor Terry Taylor from Austin Peay? When I watched him last season, I couldn't tell if he was slow or... deliberate.

This is one of those Small School Big Stat type players. I tend to shy away from this sort of profile since you can't see how they fare against (literally) bigger teams. Whether no neck types or beanstalks or athELITE types there's commonly a deflation when they encounter real competition. Usually the rebounding stays the same but the FG% and efficiency drops off. At West Virginia Huggins usually has a pretty brutal schedule.

Looks like Austin Peay played WV and both Oscar and Terry played well. I'll look deeper at Terry Taylor.

Basketballreference lists Taylor as a guard. Is that correct?

If so, then his numbers are kinda mind-boggling.

He kinda reminds me (other than the rebounding) of Wesley Matthews - who's quietly had a long solid NBA career. They're both players who will try to beat you with strength more than speed.

Another unrated in most mocks player I like is Jared Butler of Baylor (almost said Baylor of Butler). He's a very solid high IQ all-around player who plays tough defense. Not really a 1 or a 2 - just a player - reminds me of DDV of the Bucks. Not great at anything but does enough well that he should play in the NBA. He's going to be one of those guys who's going to fill out the end of a roster at the league minimum and actually be useful.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#123 » by gambitx777 » Fri Mar 6, 2020 11:32 pm

Forgetting the obvious typo. If bertians says look I'll sign a 4-40 or 4-48 if you draft my boy here instead of having to pay him 15 plus a year you absolutely do him that favor. Would he do that, idk, doubt it but you do him any favor he wants to get you closer to 10 mill a year than 15-18
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gambitx777 wrote:There is a Latvian kid. 19 pg stats are ****. But he's got good speed, really good speed, good morning IQ and decent passing ability. Probably a year or two away from being a year or two away. I can see us getting a draft and stash on him as a favor to the Lazer.


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It's good that his morning IQ is up there, but what about his in-game IQ? And no favors better than a nice cabbage soup to Bertans.


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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#124 » by doclinkin » Sat Mar 7, 2020 1:55 am

Ruzious wrote:I believe that blond was spelled with an I. I'm trying to remember the last natural blond NBA player. Drawing a blank. Was Steve Nash blond? Might have to back to the Van Arsdale brothers. The Smothers brothers?


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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#125 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Sat Mar 7, 2020 9:55 pm

Jackson-Davis has already said he’s staying in school and coming back to Indiana next season.


https://www.si.com/college/indiana/basketball/trayce-jackson-davis-returning-to-indiana-sophomore
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#126 » by long suffrin' boulez fan » Sun Mar 8, 2020 2:51 pm

Diakite’s gotta stop balling or else he’ll be gone by the time we pick in round 2.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#127 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Sun Mar 8, 2020 4:06 pm

long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:Diakite’s gotta stop balling or else he’ll be gone by the time we pick in round 2.



Yeah Draft Room just moved him to 1st round #28.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#128 » by payitforward » Sun Mar 8, 2020 7:43 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:A lot of times, natural blondness doesn't translate to the league -- again the example of Ron Baker is a good one. I'll take the blondness that comes with hard work & dedication every time. That kind of blondness can lead to great things.

Remember the words of the old spiritual, Ruz: "Once I was blond but now can see."

I believe that blond was spelled with an I. I'm trying to remember the last natural blond NBA player. Drawing a blank. Was Steve Nash blond? Might have to back to the Van Arsdale brothers. The Smothers brothers?

Steve Nash was naturally bald.

I don't know... I feel like naturally bland players have a problem standing out on the court -- they fall down a lot.

& someone who is a natural blend will also see the ball rarely -- though to be surel that is an even bigger problem for those naturally blind guys!

My apologies to the blund among us....
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#129 » by payitforward » Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:52 pm

Anybody have a read on Jordan Nwora -- i.e. for R2...?
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#130 » by Jamaaliver » Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:45 pm

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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#131 » by Ruzious » Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:30 pm

payitforward wrote:Anybody have a read on Jordan Nwora -- i.e. for R2...?

Good question. He can definitely shoot and score. He's had a rep as a bad defender, but he's actually had good defensive numbers as far as defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) and defensive WAR/Winshares. Usually, players like him tend to get overrated, but he seems to be underrated. I'm tempted to label him a poor man's Middleton. Now that I think of it - a rich man's Jared Dudley.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#132 » by wall_glizzy » Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:04 pm

Doesn't look like anyone's mentioned Sam Merrill here yet, and thought y'all might be interested after reading about him in today's John Hollinger column (https://theathletic.com/1758640/2020/04/20/hollinger-five-takes-on-nba-draft-prospects-where-im-against-the-consensus/)

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One of my pet theories that I developed while on the front office side is that players from the Intermountain West and Pacific Northwest are systematically underscouted. It’s just too challenging and time consuming for most scouts and executives to get to games in this region.

That, in turn, often leads to those same players being underdrafted … particularly if they aren’t playing for one of the bluebloods and weren’t on the hype list coming out of high school. Recent examples include Pascal Siakam (27th pick from New Mexico State), Kyle Kuzma (27th, Utah), Derrick White (29th, Colorado), Dejounte Murray (29th, Washington), Delon Wright (20th, Utah), Larry Nance, Jr. (27th, Wyoming), Spencer Dinwiddie (38th, Colorado), and of course I’m gonna mention Dillon Brooks (45th, from Oregon, after he posted a PER of 30 in Pac 12 play as a junior and took his team to the Final Four).

Anyway, this year my number one Bad Geography Guy is Sam Merrill from Utah State. To the extent he’s been mentioned at all, he’s been posited as a late second-rounder … which means that nobody is bothering to make a special trip to Logan, Utah, to see this dude play.

To be sure, there are concerns here. Merrill is average at best defensively, even in college, and he may turn out to be too flammable at the pro level for his offensive value to offset.

That said, his production and skill level suggest his draft stock is far too low. Let’s start with the fact that in our quest to find the next Duncan Robinson or Davis Bertans, someone who can launch multitudinous 3s with 40 percent accuracy, Merrill has some serious possibilities. He shot 41.0 percent from 3 and 89.3 percent from the line last season, and his career numbers from 3 are even better (42.0 percent). This wasn’t cherrypicking either — many of his attempts were off the dribble because he was the team’s primary shot-creator, and he was a volume launcher who took nearly seven a game. He has a great shot fake, too.

We’ve had a lot of good college shooters, however, and many of them were unplayable at the NBA level. The difference in Merrill’s case is how good he is on the ball for his size. He’s a 6-5 guard who appears to have decent length, and is extremely comfortably coming off of curls and playing in pick-and-rolls. While he doesn’t have the dynamism to get to the rim consistently, even with a screen, he makes the right decision darn near every time. He played in the mid-major Mountain West Conference, but the tape says that even in games against athletic SEC teams like Florida and LSU he was the best player on the court.

The numbers are pretty emphatic here. Merrill’s rate of 6.5 assists per 100 possession is a really high figure for a wing player who is supposedly just taking jump shots, but what stands out even more is his piddling 9.0 percent Turnover Rate. He’s making plays while hardly ever making mistakes. The only significant prospect with a lower Turnover Rate is Florida State’s Devin Vassell, and Vassell is a guaranteed lottery pick. Merrill is going in the late second round.

Again, Merrill was doing this in a high-usage role that saw him average 32.6 points and 6.5 assists per 100 possessions, while knocking down 41 percent of his 3s and shooting 51.5 percent on 2s. Obviously, Merrill won’t be a primary ballhandler at the NBA level, but the numbers above bode well for his capacity to operate as a second-side playmaker who has a Plan B if he’s not open from 3.

Merrill’s rebound-block-steal numbers aren’t great and signify that he’ll likely face an athletic deficit, and that correctly dampens his draft stock a bit. But in a league increasingly tilted toward skill, Merrill has it in bunches. I don’t know where that puts him on my final board yet, but at worst he’s a second-round sleeper who has been significantly undervalued. And I strongly suspect that not nearly enough people saw him this year.


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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#133 » by Ruzious » Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:20 pm

Good find on Merrill. I think he falls in the Garrison Mathews tier but perhaps a bit better - played against better competition and seems to be a better passer - has a nice assist/to ratio. Like Mathews, he's very over-aged - he'll be 24 before the draft. Seems like a legit NBA prospect.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#134 » by wall_glizzy » Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:16 pm

Ruzious wrote:Good find on Merrill. I think he falls in the Garrison Mathews tier but perhaps a bit better - played against better competition and seems to be a better passer - has a nice assist/to ratio. Like Mathews, he's very over-aged - he'll be 24 before the draft. Seems like a legit NBA prospect.


Yeah, 100% in the Mathews mold save for the intriguing (and impressive) ability to make plays without too many turnovers. It's an archetype that we've already got a couple of, especially assuming we retain Bertans, but from a pure asset accumulation standpoint it seems like he's got a decent shot at becoming somebody who sticks around in the league.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#135 » by payitforward » Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:27 am

He's like Mathews in having played relatively low level competition. & being a big-time scorer. Otherwise, I don't think they are all that much alike. IOW, I wouldn't say they were in the same mold.

OTOH, so what?

Merrill is definitely an incredible shooter -- .624 TS% for his whole college career! That's a wow number. & watching the highlight reel, you can see that he has some moves with the ball. There's some catch and shoot, but there is also plenty of shooting off the bounce.

Garrison wasn't quite as efficient a shooter, but he shot at a higher volume & scored more points. Still plenty efficient too. But, above all, Garrison rebounded more -- a lot more. Like 65% more per 40 minutes on their overall careers.

Anyone who can shoot like this kid gets a chance in the NBA. If he can maintain efficiency at that level, he sticks.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#136 » by montestewart » Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:27 am

doclinkin wrote:
Ruzious wrote:I believe that blond was spelled with an I. I'm trying to remember the last natural blond NBA player. Drawing a blank. Was Steve Nash blond? Might have to back to the Van Arsdale brothers. The Smothers brothers?


Dirk
Andrei Kirilenko
White Chocolate Jason WIlliams at the end of a summer
Larry Bird
Birdman Chris Anderson
Jack Sikma if you go back far enough


Late to the party

Chris Kamen was a natural blond, right?

Image
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#137 » by Ruzious » Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:38 am

payitforward wrote:He's like Mathews in having played relatively low level competition. & being a big-time scorer. Otherwise, I don't think they are all that much alike. IOW, I wouldn't say they were in the same mold.

OTOH, so what?

Merrill is definitely an incredible shooter -- .624 TS% for his whole college career! That's a wow number. & watching the highlight reel, you can see that he has some moves with the ball. There's some catch and shoot, but there is also plenty of shooting off the bounce.

Garrison wasn't quite as efficient a shooter, but he shot at a higher volume & scored more points. Still plenty efficient too. But, above all, Garrison rebounded more -- a lot more. Like 65% more per 40 minutes on their overall careers.

Anyone who can shoot like this kid gets a chance in the NBA. If he can maintain efficiency at that level, he sticks.

Fwiw, we have the benefit of seeing that Mathews' rebounding stats at Lipscomb haven't carried forward to pro basketball - not exactly shocking. Both of them are going to fight for a roster spot primarily based on their shooting. They have similar size and probably similar athleticism. I think what sticks out most as a difference is the assist/to ratio. Merrill's was over 2, while Mathews was under 1.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#138 » by payitforward » Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:25 pm

Mathews only played 227 minutes. I'm not inclined to place any trust in any particular stat he posted. I'm not concluding he'll shoot 41.3% on 3-pointers or 91.2% from the line going forward. He posted a 69.1% TS% -- better than any year at Lipscomb! :)

More assists are good. Fewer TOs good too. I've never understood why anyone looks at the ratio, however. They aren't 2 sides of a coin, as it were. An assist doesn't have the same positive value as a TO has negative value.

In any case, however, you are right that Merrill had it all over Mathews at that end of the boxscore -- if you look at assists, blocks, steals, turnovers & fouls, they are quite different.

In fact, if you look at scoring, they're different too: both terrific, for sure -- but Mathews scored 23% more points per 40 minutes. A much larger % of his attempts were 3-pointers as well. Plus he got to the line much more than Merrill.

That leaves rebounding, where they were also very different.

IOW, QED -- these guys are not similar! :) -- Except of course they are: both guys who excelled at a low level of college competition. Mathews looks like he can play in the league. No surprise if Merrill turns out that way too! Let's get him -- undrafted!
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#139 » by penbeast0 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:15 am

montestewart wrote:
doclinkin wrote:
Ruzious wrote:I believe that blond was spelled with an I. I'm trying to remember the last natural blond NBA player. Drawing a blank. Was Steve Nash blond? Might have to back to the Van Arsdale brothers. The Smothers brothers?


Dirk
Andrei Kirilenko
White Chocolate Jason WIlliams at the end of a summer
Larry Bird
Birdman Chris Anderson
Jack Sikma if you go back far enough


Late to the party

Chris Kamen was a natural blond, right?

Image


We'll see whose a natural blond when we get a picture of them after 2 month of virus closing down the hair salons. :D
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#140 » by I_Like_Dirt » Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:57 am

montestewart wrote:Late to the party

Chris Kamen was a natural blond, right?

Image



Chris Kaman was a natural White Raven Spirit and proof that they walk among us. Can you tell which of them are and aren't blond, though?
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