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2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s)

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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#141 » by Ruzious » Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:55 am

payitforward wrote:Mathews only played 227 minutes. I'm not inclined to place any trust in any particular stat he posted. I'm not concluding he'll shoot 41.3% on 3-pointers or 91.2% from the line going forward. He posted a 69.1% TS% -- better than any year at Lipscomb! :)

More assists are good. Fewer TOs good too. I've never understood why anyone looks at the ratio, however. They aren't 2 sides of a coin, as it were. An assist doesn't have the same positive value as a TO has negative value.

In any case, however, you are right that Merrill had it all over Mathews at that end of the boxscore -- if you look at assists, blocks, steals, turnovers & fouls, they are quite different.

In fact, if you look at scoring, they're different too: both terrific, for sure -- but Mathews scored 23% more points per 40 minutes. A much larger % of his attempts were 3-pointers as well. Plus he got to the line much more than Merrill.

That leaves rebounding, where they were also very different.

IOW, QED -- these guys are not similar! :) -- Except of course they are: both guys who excelled at a low level of college competition. Mathews looks like he can play in the league. No surprise if Merrill turns out that way too! Let's get him -- undrafted!

Add 440 minutes to those 227, because he averaged 2.7 rebounds per 36 minutes in those G League minutes. 667 minutes is enough evidence to show his rebounding numbers from Lipscomb aren't likely going to carryover to the NBA. And this should have been obvious - he doesn't have the physical ability to put up big rebounding numbers in the NBA. As the kids say, his archetype does not include making a difference as a rebounder.

I think assists/to ratio is usually a major indication of BBIQ and efficiency - both extremely important. Generally, when a player makes more attempts to set up teammates, both assists and to's increase. That's how they're related. And you can tell if it makes sense to run the offense through a player more frequently - yes if he has a good a/to ratio - no if he doesn't.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#142 » by payitforward » Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:53 am

Ruzious wrote:...I think assists/to ratio is usually a major indication of BBIQ and efficiency - both extremely important. Generally, when a player makes more attempts to set up teammates, both assists and to's increase. That's how they're related. And you can tell if it makes sense to run the offense through a player more frequently - yes if he has a good a/to ratio - no if he doesn't.

That makes perfect sense, Ruz -- of course. You do have to look at assists, & at turnovers, & -- why not -- assists vs. turnovers as well.

But the ratio itself has no meaning independent of the actual numbers. Giving a value to the ratio all on its own is rather like giving a lot of value to the fact that a guy has a high TS% independent of his usage. A high TS% is better than a low one, but it says very little about the value of a guy who takes few shots.

A high assist to turnover ratio (e.g. above 2 to 1) doesn't mean much unless the player in question gets lots of assists. If Joe averages 6 assists to 2 turnovers every 40 minutes, & Bob averages 9 assists to 3 turnovers per 40 minutes, they have the same assist to turnover ratio, but that doesn't mean they are providing equivalent productivity from those numbers. The result of Bob's assists & turnovers is more net help to his team than Joe's assists & turnovers provide. Focusing on the ratio obscures that fact.

Now, if we are talking about two PGs who deliver the same # of assists per 40 minutes, obviously the guy with the higher ratio has an edge on the other guy -- but that says no more than the obvious: fewer turnovers are better than more turnovers! We don't need the ratio to tell us that!

If you run regressions on SAS, it tells you that one turnover has a stronger negative effect on chances to win than the positive effect an assist has. If we say a turnover is a minus one in value, then the positive value of an assist is a plus of one half.

Yet, of course, if a pg gets a lot of assists we certainly do have to look at the turnovers required to get them. When we compare John Wall at his best to, say, Chris Paul, we see that they both get tons of assists. CP only gets @6.5% more than John on their careers. But, John turns the ball over almost 55% more frequently than CP (now... keep in mind that Chris Paul is the best PG ever to play the game -- he's better than John Wall & every other PG at everything, so pointing this out is not meant as a criticism of John).
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#143 » by Ruzious » Fri May 8, 2020 7:27 pm

Here's an odd 2nd round prospect https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jabari-narcis-1.html - Jabari Narcis - who may or may not get drafted. He's someone to develop in the G League. 6'9 240 lber from a small school who chucks up 3's at a good percentage and can block some shots and rebound. Needs a lot of work but seems to have some long-term potential.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#144 » by payitforward » Fri May 8, 2020 8:00 pm

Where do you find guys like this, Ruz?

Here's a guy nbadraftroom has going undrafted, but who has put up consistently good numbers in college -- Yoeli Childs: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/yoeli-childs-1.html
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#145 » by payitforward » Fri May 8, 2020 8:23 pm

NBAdraftroom now shows Malachi Flynn as "on the bubble," i.e. likely not to be drafted. When I look at this guy's numbers, I see a terrific player. & when I support that with looking at highlights..., well you be the judge -- & prepare to be entertained:
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#146 » by Ruzious » Fri May 8, 2020 10:04 pm

payitforward wrote:Where do you find guys like this, Ruz?

Here's a guy nbadraftroom has going undrafted, but who has put up consistently good numbers in college -- Yoeli Childs: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/yoeli-childs-1.html

Hey, Childs and Flynn look more interesting than Narcis. I guess, if you're a fan of Narcis, that would make you a... no, I won't stoop that low. :lol:
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#147 » by wall_glizzy » Fri May 8, 2020 10:28 pm

I like Flynn a lot. I'd be surprised if he fell out of the draft entirely, but it does seem inevitable that some number of the mid-lottery-to-early-2nd cluster of point guards will end of falling for no particular reason other than excessive supply. It'd be great, and presumably relatively easy, for us to buy into the mid-late 2nd to roll the dice on somebody who slips.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#148 » by payitforward » Fri May 8, 2020 11:42 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:Where do you find guys like this, Ruz?

Here's a guy nbadraftroom has going undrafted, but who has put up consistently good numbers in college -- Yoeli Childs: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/yoeli-childs-1.html

Hey, Childs and Flynn look more interesting than Narcis. I guess, if you're a fan of Narcis, that would make you a... no, I won't stoop that low. :lol:

Either that or it'd just make you a narc. As a certified ex-hippie I couldn't be that. Then again, as a semi-demi-flower child, I guess I might be a narcissus. Kinda snarcy for a carny in a cranny?
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#149 » by payitforward » Fri May 8, 2020 11:44 pm

OTOH, if Yoeli Childs has a child -- are Childs & his child children?
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#150 » by payitforward » Sat May 9, 2020 12:10 am

wall_glizzy wrote:I like Flynn a lot. I'd be surprised if he fell out of the draft entirely, but it does seem inevitable that some number of the mid-lottery-to-early-2nd cluster of point guards will end of falling for no particular reason other than excessive supply. It'd be great, and presumably relatively easy, for us to buy into the mid-late 2nd to roll the dice on somebody who slips.

We bought a pick from Elton Brand last year; he doesn't like R2 picks it's said -- & just like last year he has a bunch of them: #33, #35 & #50.

Flynn looks a little like Steph... not sayin'.... But, I do like him, & I find it hard to imagine someone who can do what he can obviously do not having a long NBA career!
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#151 » by youngWizzy » Sun May 10, 2020 5:21 am

payitforward wrote:NBAdraftroom now shows Malachi Flynn as "on the bubble," i.e. likely not to be drafted. When I look at this guy's numbers, I see a terrific player. & when I support that with looking at highlights..., well you be the judge -- & prepare to be entertained:


Love Flynn, I mentioned him in this thread before. His numbers are great really and they look a bit like Greivis Vasquez and Luke Ridnour's but Flynn was a lot better at taking care of the ball. He'll be in the league for a while. People tend to overlook age even when a guy like him is producing very well.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#152 » by youngWizzy » Tue May 12, 2020 4:48 pm

Any love for Filip Petrusev from Gonzaga (https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/filip-petrusev-1.html)?
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#153 » by Ruzious » Tue May 12, 2020 5:59 pm

youngWizzy wrote:Any love for Filip Petrusev from Gonzaga (https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/filip-petrusev-1.html)?

Remember Don McLean - who played for the Bullezards back in the day? He reminds me of him but rebounds a little better. I think he should be a 2nd rounder and can make an NBA roster and maybe get minutes if he shows he can hit 3's.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#154 » by payitforward » Tue May 12, 2020 8:34 pm

His numbers are terrific, but... he doesn't shoot the 3 at all -- did a little bit last year (but at a .300 clip). This year not at all. Gets to the line a lot. Last year he shot .853; this year it's .655.

All his scoring (he scores a lot!) is right around the basket, where he is very nifty. I like him.

But... is he coming out?
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#155 » by payitforward » Mon May 18, 2020 6:36 pm

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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#156 » by Ruzious » Mon May 18, 2020 8:11 pm

payitforward wrote:How about Emmitt Williams from LSU -- https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/emmitt-williams-1.html?

Good call. I don't hear anything about him, but he has good long-term potential. Stick him in the G League for a year or 2 and have him work on his 3, and he can be a solid NBA player, imo. In the old days, he'd be called an under-sized PF, but now... he'd be called an under-sized PF. :) Still, guys like DeMarre Carroll carve out long NBA careers - I see him in that mold - even has the hair.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#157 » by payitforward » Tue May 19, 2020 4:31 pm

Here's the thing. We need to sign Mathews to the regular roster for next year. He's already shown that he can function in the league, now we need to find out if he can do so long-term. 2-way teaches us nothing.

Assuming we also re-sign Bertans & Napier & either pick up Bonga's contract or cut him a new deal, while letting Pasecniks walk (please), that puts us at 13 players. Hence, we can make at least the 2 draft picks we already have.

But, we will also need 2 other players to both 2-way contracts (the guy you pick at #38 - the Bulls pick we own - isn't a candidate for a 2-way). Thus, either they are both undrafted guys, or we acquire at least one maybe 2 additional picks later in R2.

But, of course, we can't be sure we'll be able to retain Bertans & Napier. Likely in both cases, but neither is 100% certain. Which means that if we make 2 picks for the roster & get 2 guys for 2-ways, we might still be left needing to add 1 or maybe even 2 guys to fill out the roster.

That would put us into the FA market, which would be a mistake for this team. No bargains there. Not the right market for a team that's both salary-squeezed & also rebuilding.

So... we have more room to add young players than might have seemed the case on first glance. For sure I would buy one of Elton Brand's high R2 picks (#33 or #35), assuming he wants to sell. Trading the #9 (unless a really high target happens to drop) for #17 & #26 also looks like a good idea if possible.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#158 » by Ruzious » Mon Jun 1, 2020 5:31 pm

If we don't pick a guard in the first round, one player we should look at closely in round 2 if he's there is Grant Riller. At first glance, he doesn't look the part, but he does what Lou Williams does. Despite what looks like average tools, ya can't stop him from out-maneuvering you with the ball in his hands - he'll get you off-balance - with a good first step and then an uncanny change of pace. Oh, you still think you can stop him? Then you'll foul him or fall on the floor. Like Lou Will, he really doesn't have a position, so ya play him off the bench and let the defense worry about what position he is. He's 23 and from a mid major school, so he'll likely be there.

https://www.thestepien.com/2020/03/30/case-grant-riller/

Btw, Mason Jones of Arkansas is a somewhat similar prospect - a little bigger and younger and from a bigger conference. Averaged a ridiculous 11.6 FTA's per 40 minutes as a sophomore.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#159 » by payitforward » Mon Jun 1, 2020 9:02 pm

Both those guys look like they have a good shot to play in the league. I've been looking at Mason Jones for a while. Definitely like him.
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Re: 2020 2nd Round Draft Pick(s) 

Post#160 » by Ruzious » Mon Jun 1, 2020 9:26 pm

payitforward wrote:Both those guys look like they have a good shot to play in the league. I've been looking at Mason Jones for a while. Definitely like him.

Jones really does check a lot of boxes. With both of them, if they can improve their 3 point shooting, I'm not sure how they can miss. Both appear to be outstanding ball-handlers, fwiw.
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