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Next year: how much better can we be?

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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#21 » by dckingsfan » Mon May 18, 2020 1:33 pm

Dat2U wrote:Who's our starting C next season?

If its Bryant with Wagner as the main backup were 35-40 win team even if Wall is at his best and healthy. Maybe could squeeze out a playoff spot in the East in that scenario.

For the Wizards to make any type of significant jump, the upgrade has to come defensively at the C position.

Could it also come from the PF position? I think you are referring to the weak defensive rebounding and rim protection from our FC rotation of Wagner, Bryant, Rui and Bertans? It seems like the bigger defensive hole there is at PF?
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#22 » by payitforward » Mon May 18, 2020 2:01 pm

Dat -- first I want to make a point in this post, then in a next post I'm going to ask you a question -- or maybe it's a friendly challenge.

Point --

I think I might distinguish between winning more regular season games, even a lot of them, & what you call a "significant jump."

By significant jump what I might want to mean is -- have a practical shot to beat a better team than yours in a 7 game series. I say that, because you have to do that at least once in the playoffs to move on -- unless you happen to be the best team in the conference (an even bigger, more significant jump, obviously).

OTOH, winning more regular season games does indicate improvement, & if we win 40 of them next year, we'll have become a better team than we were last year or this. But, on its own, 40 wins still leaves us as a run of the mill team -- a little better in that run than we had been, sure, but not therefore in a position to make noise in the playoffs -- not able to compete for anything that matters.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#23 » by Dat2U » Mon May 18, 2020 2:12 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Who's our starting C next season?

If its Bryant with Wagner as the main backup were 35-40 win team even if Wall is at his best and healthy. Maybe could squeeze out a playoff spot in the East in that scenario.

For the Wizards to make any type of significant jump, the upgrade has to come defensively at the C position.

Could it also come from the PF position? I think you are referring to the weak defensive rebounding and rim protection from our FC rotation of Wagner, Bryant, Rui and Bertans? It seems like the bigger defensive hole there is at PF?


No, it must come from the C position. Of course PF matters. We could never adequately hide Antwan at the 4 when he was here but I'm focused on the C position b/c:

* It's the most impactful position on defense. A good C can cover up flaws of their teammates and make them look better.

* Bryant/Wagner are arguably a bottom 3 duo in the league on defense. Were not good enough defensively at the other positions to offset that.

Looking in free agency, we seem to mention Nerlens Noel every year and he was quite good and is coming off a one year deal. While not a floor spacer, he could help a lot with his swiss army knife toolkit on D. The switchability and shot blocking is exactly what we need.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#24 » by payitforward » Mon May 18, 2020 2:13 pm

Ok, so here is the challenge. You write:
Dat2U wrote:Who's our starting C next season?

If its Bryant with Wagner as the main backup we're 35-40 win team...

For the Wizards to make any type of significant jump, the upgrade has to come defensively at the C position.

I assume you mean that we have to replace both of them. In that case -- replace them with whom?

A start would be to say who would be ideal -- forgetting practical questions like are these guys available at any price, & do we have a way to pay the price it would take to acquire them.

More useful, of course, would be to identify real candidates (players we could actually acquire) to "upgrade... defensively at the C" in a way that would allow us to make a "significant jump."

So, that's my real challenge: who are the guys we need to get & how can we get them? If it's only 1 player, same question: who & how?
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#25 » by Dat2U » Mon May 18, 2020 2:32 pm

payitforward wrote:Ok, so here is the challenge. You write:
Dat2U wrote:Who's our starting C next season?

If its Bryant with Wagner as the main backup we're 35-40 win team...

For the Wizards to make any type of significant jump, the upgrade has to come defensively at the C position.

I assume you mean that we have to replace both of them. In that case -- replace them with whom?

A start would be to say who would be ideal -- forgetting practical questions like are these guys available at any price, & do we have a way to pay the price it would take to acquire them.

More useful, of course, would be to identify real candidates (players we could actually acquire) to "upgrade... defensively at the C" in a way that would allow us to make a "significant jump."

So, that's my real challenge: who are the guys we need to get & how can we get them? If it's only 1 player, same question: who & how?


I sorta gave away one of my answers I'm my previous post. Use part or most of MLE on signing Nerlens Noel.

I think Bryant as a main backup is okay. But that would make him overpriced.

Another scenario is trade available resources for a big. I wouldn't do that for many guys. I would do it for Gobert. I know most think we can't afford a Wall/Beal/Gobert trio but we are likely a year away from being able to move Wall with 2 years left on his deal - especially if he looks solid.

Other option is the draft. But usually rookie Cs aren't the quickest way to improvement. Nor is their any bet that either Wiseman or Okgonwu would fall to us and if they did, I'm not certain either makes an immediate impact.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#26 » by payitforward » Mon May 18, 2020 2:37 pm

Dat2U wrote:...Looking in free agency, we seem to mention Nerlens Noel every year and he was quite good and is coming off a one year deal. While not a floor spacer, he could help a lot with his swiss army knife toolkit on D. The switchability and shot blocking is exactly what we need.

Aaah, ok -- you provided your first answer to my challenge before I finished writing it up!

So, you would make a push to sign Nerlens Noel as a FA -- presumably sign him for 3 years. How much would we have to pay him?

In his last 4 years, Noel has averaged @15 minutes a game. He played 18.5 minutes a game for OKC last year. Would he start for us? Or do you see him playing, say, 20 minutes a game?

If the latter, does he play behind Bryant? Or are we also looking for another guy to start? If so, back to my challenge! Who? & how do we acquire him?
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#27 » by payitforward » Mon May 18, 2020 2:39 pm

Dat2U wrote:I sorta gave away one of my answers I'm my previous post. Use part or most of MLE on signing Nerlens Noel.

I think Bryant as a main backup is okay. But that would make him overpriced.

Another scenario is trade available resources for a big. I wouldn't do that for many guys. I would do it for Gobert. I know most think we can't afford a Wall/Beal/Gobert trio but we are likely a year away from being able to move Wall with 2 years left on his deal - especially if he looks solid.

Other option is the draft. But usually rookie Cs aren't the quickest way to improvement. Nor is their any bet that either Wiseman or Okgonwu would fall to us and if they did, I'm not certain either makes an immediate impact.

Noel starting & Bryant as main backup?

I don't see any reason to think Gobert is available in a trade, & if he were... come on, dat -- we don't have enough to give. It would be easy to out-bid us.

Moreover, there's zero chance we could pay him along with Wall & Beal even this year -- let alone give him the max deal he's going to get next year.

Rudy Gobert is not a practical suggestion -- in fact, I'd say pointing to a star who is in his peak years & getting paid accordingly really doesn't count as offering a solution. 29 teams would like to have Rudy Gobert. Doh.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#28 » by Ruzious » Mon May 18, 2020 3:06 pm

payitforward wrote:We won 32 last year & (effectively) went 30-52 this year. If we won 41 games next year, that'd be a 37% improvement! A lot!

That'll be our goal - as opposed our likely outcome.

It's a lot easier to improve your percentage of wins when you start off being awful. If you start off being Milwaukee or Toronto, it's a tad bit harder to improve by 37%.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#29 » by payitforward » Mon May 18, 2020 3:14 pm

We are a young team & trying to get younger. So, just as Rudy Gobert isn't really answers to the challenge I gave Dat, neither are e.g. Nikola Jokic, Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan or Jonas Valanciunas.

Nerlens Noel would be a great get. All we'd have to do is outbid OKC (assuming no one else enters the fray to try & acquire him).

But, Dat, I don't believe you can be saying "acquire Nerlens Noel, & we're ready to make 'a significant jump.'" Are you?

So, who is the relatively young, relatively affordable, relatively acquirable defensive Center stud we need to target?

For example, is Jarrett Allen on the list? Is Mitchell Robinson? Robert Williams?

Would you trade our #9 pick for Robinson or Williams? Or our #9 plus something significant for Jarrett Allen? Tony Bradley is languishing behind Gobert -- would you want him? What would you give for him? Would you trade for Daniel Gafford?
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#30 » by Ruzious » Mon May 18, 2020 3:17 pm

Dat2U wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Who's our starting C next season?

If its Bryant with Wagner as the main backup were 35-40 win team even if Wall is at his best and healthy. Maybe could squeeze out a playoff spot in the East in that scenario.

For the Wizards to make any type of significant jump, the upgrade has to come defensively at the C position.

Could it also come from the PF position? I think you are referring to the weak defensive rebounding and rim protection from our FC rotation of Wagner, Bryant, Rui and Bertans? It seems like the bigger defensive hole there is at PF?


No, it must come from the C position. Of course PF matters. We could never adequately hide Antwan at the 4 when he was here but I'm focused on the C position b/c:

* It's the most impactful position on defense. A good C can cover up flaws of their teammates and make them look better.

* Bryant/Wagner are arguably a bottom 3 duo in the league on defense. Were not good enough defensively at the other positions to offset that.

Looking in free agency, we seem to mention Nerlens Noel every year and he was quite good and is coming off a one year deal. While not a floor spacer, he could help a lot with his swiss army knife toolkit on D. The switchability and shot blocking is exactly what we need.

I don't agree with that. We need a great defender in the front court - whether it's at PF or C doesn't matter. Look at Milwaukee - Giannis being by far their top defensive player and the Lopez brothers being their centers. Look at Toronto with their forwards continuing to be their best defenders. Look at the Clippers - with their 2 forwards being their 2 best defenders. Look at the Lakers - seeing Anthony Davis has played most of his minutes at PF rather than center - and they have 2 past their prime former Wiz rejects sharing the majority of the C minutes. Look at Boston - with Kanter... often playing center. Those are the NBA's best teams.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#31 » by payitforward » Mon May 18, 2020 3:23 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:We won 32 last year & (effectively) went 30-52 this year. If we won 41 games next year, that'd be a 37% improvement! A lot!

That'll be our goal - as opposed our likely outcome.

It's a lot easier to improve your percentage of wins when you start off being awful. If you start off being Milwaukee or Toronto, it's a tad bit harder to improve by 37%.

The math is straightforward, to be sure. But, man, a lot of teams with bad records find it hard to improve... at all! :)
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#32 » by Ruzious » Mon May 18, 2020 3:38 pm

payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:We won 32 last year & (effectively) went 30-52 this year. If we won 41 games next year, that'd be a 37% improvement! A lot!

That'll be our goal - as opposed our likely outcome.

It's a lot easier to improve your percentage of wins when you start off being awful. If you start off being Milwaukee or Toronto, it's a tad bit harder to improve by 37%.

The math is straightforward, to be sure. But, man, a lot of teams with bad records find it hard to improve... at all! :)

Well, if they don't, that would be the definition of incompetence.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#33 » by Dat2U » Mon May 18, 2020 3:49 pm

payitforward wrote:
Dat2U wrote:...Looking in free agency, we seem to mention Nerlens Noel every year and he was quite good and is coming off a one year deal. While not a floor spacer, he could help a lot with his swiss army knife toolkit on D. The switchability and shot blocking is exactly what we need.

Aaah, ok -- you provided your first answer to my challenge before I finished writing it up!

So, you would make a push to sign Nerlens Noel as a FA -- presumably sign him for 3 years. How much would we have to pay him?

In his last 4 years, Noel has averaged @15 minutes a game. He played 18.5 minutes a game for OKC last year. Would he start for us? Or do you see him playing, say, 20 minutes a game?

If the latter, does he play behind Bryant? Or are we also looking for another guy to start? If so, back to my challenge! Who? & how do we acquire him?


Noel is looking at long term security after missing out on a big payday. I start at $20 mil over 3 years and go up to the full mid-level if needed.

I want him playing around 24 minutes. Lean frame suggests he should not play more than that. And yes he should start.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#34 » by Dat2U » Mon May 18, 2020 3:52 pm

payitforward wrote:
Dat2U wrote:I sorta gave away one of my answers I'm my previous post. Use part or most of MLE on signing Nerlens Noel.

I think Bryant as a main backup is okay. But that would make him overpriced.

Another scenario is trade available resources for a big. I wouldn't do that for many guys. I would do it for Gobert. I know most think we can't afford a Wall/Beal/Gobert trio but we are likely a year away from being able to move Wall with 2 years left on his deal - especially if he looks solid.

Other option is the draft. But usually rookie Cs aren't the quickest way to improvement. Nor is their any bet that either Wiseman or Okgonwu would fall to us and if they did, I'm not certain either makes an immediate impact.

Noel starting & Bryant as main backup?

I don't see any reason to think Gobert is available in a trade, & if he were... come on, dat -- we don't have enough to give. It would be easy to out-bid us.

Moreover, there's zero chance we could pay him along with Wall & Beal even this year -- let alone give him the max deal he's going to get next year.

Rudy Gobert is not a practical suggestion -- in fact, I'd say pointing to a star who is in his peak years & getting paid accordingly really doesn't count as offering a solution. 29 teams would like to have Rudy Gobert. Doh.


I don't know if Gobert is available. I know the relationship between him and Donovan is damaged. Can they function as teammates? Utah will certainly try to make it work but if he's available I'm definitely going after him.

The answer to paying all 3 is moving Wall or Beal in a year. Obviously you try moving Wall or maybe you get an absolute hall for Beal.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#35 » by nate33 » Mon May 18, 2020 3:53 pm

payitforward wrote:
Dat2U wrote:...Looking in free agency, we seem to mention Nerlens Noel every year and he was quite good and is coming off a one year deal. While not a floor spacer, he could help a lot with his swiss army knife toolkit on D. The switchability and shot blocking is exactly what we need.

Aaah, ok -- you provided your first answer to my challenge before I finished writing it up!

So, you would make a push to sign Nerlens Noel as a FA -- presumably sign him for 3 years. How much would we have to pay him?

In his last 4 years, Noel has averaged @15 minutes a game. He played 18.5 minutes a game for OKC last year. Would he start for us? Or do you see him playing, say, 20 minutes a game?

If the latter, does he play behind Bryant? Or are we also looking for another guy to start? If so, back to my challenge! Who? & how do we acquire him?

I agree that Noel is a great target. He probably won't cost too much (MLE type money) and we wouldn't have to sacrifice assets to get him like we would for Turner, Gobert or Allen.

What's also nice is that we can add him without giving up on the development of Bryant. Noel is a 20-25 mpg type of player so there's still plenty of time for Bryant. Indeed, I'd probably continue to start Bryant because of he is a bigger, more durable guy suitable for leaning on the starting centers in the league. Noel would bring defensive energy to the second unit and then play in crunch time when we jack up the defensive intensity and switch everything.

And we could still find some minutes for Mo Wagner because Noel can defend the PF position if necessary.

Overall, the team would play MUCH better defense with Wall and Noel replacing minutes from IT, Ish, Bryant and Wagner. They'll get better still if Bonga continues to improve.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#36 » by Dat2U » Mon May 18, 2020 4:08 pm

Ruzious wrote:
Dat2U wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Could it also come from the PF position? I think you are referring to the weak defensive rebounding and rim protection from our FC rotation of Wagner, Bryant, Rui and Bertans? It seems like the bigger defensive hole there is at PF?


No, it must come from the C position. Of course PF matters. We could never adequately hide Antwan at the 4 when he was here but I'm focused on the C position b/c:

* It's the most impactful position on defense. A good C can cover up flaws of their teammates and make them look better.

* Bryant/Wagner are arguably a bottom 3 duo in the league on defense. Were not good enough defensively at the other positions to offset that.

Looking in free agency, we seem to mention Nerlens Noel every year and he was quite good and is coming off a one year deal. While not a floor spacer, he could help a lot with his swiss army knife toolkit on D. The switchability and shot blocking is exactly what we need.

I don't agree with that. We need a great defender in the front court - whether it's at PF or C doesn't matter. Look at Milwaukee - Giannis being by far their top defensive player and the Lopez brothers being their centers. Look at Toronto with their forwards continuing to be their best defenders. Look at the Clippers - with their 2 forwards being their 2 best defenders. Look at the Lakers - seeing Anthony Davis has played most of his minutes at PF rather than center - and they have 2 past their prime former Wiz rejects sharing the majority of the C minutes. Look at Boston - with Kanter... often playing center. Those are the NBA's best teams.


Milwaukee & the Lakers have unicorns. We don't.

Toronto, Boston & the Clips all have 3 great perimeter defenders. We don't have any of those.

Boston also relies on Theis more than Kanter.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#37 » by youngWizzy » Mon May 18, 2020 4:12 pm

I would like Cheick Diallo who I absolutely wanted to sign last offseason but I'm assuming Phoenix may pick up the team option on his contract. Was good last year and this year has also been got but not better this year primarily because of the situation in Phoenix and not getting playing time. He'd be a solid pickup and more affordable than Noel. Still only 23.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#38 » by dckingsfan » Mon May 18, 2020 4:19 pm

With respect, probably both Dat and Ruz are correct at the same time.

It is faster to quickly change the trajectory of or defense with a Center. But is there a C out there like Richaun Holmes this year? Or a trade with New York for Mitchell Robinson?

Or is it faster to go the way of the Unicorn and look for "that" PF in the draft. And the pissy part - did we miss out last year with Brandon Clarke? But maybe there is a PF in this year's draft that fits that mold?
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#39 » by Ruzious » Mon May 18, 2020 5:15 pm

Dat2U wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Dat2U wrote:...Looking in free agency, we seem to mention Nerlens Noel every year and he was quite good and is coming off a one year deal. While not a floor spacer, he could help a lot with his swiss army knife toolkit on D. The switchability and shot blocking is exactly what we need.

Aaah, ok -- you provided your first answer to my challenge before I finished writing it up!

So, you would make a push to sign Nerlens Noel as a FA -- presumably sign him for 3 years. How much would we have to pay him?

In his last 4 years, Noel has averaged @15 minutes a game. He played 18.5 minutes a game for OKC last year. Would he start for us? Or do you see him playing, say, 20 minutes a game?

If the latter, does he play behind Bryant? Or are we also looking for another guy to start? If so, back to my challenge! Who? & how do we acquire him?


Noel is looking at long term security after missing out on a big payday. I start at $20 mil over 3 years and go up to the full mid-level if needed.

I want him playing around 24 minutes. Lean frame suggests he should not play more than that. And yes he should start.

If you can get him for that cheap, do it. I don't think we can. We should target players like him before they're about to get paid and give them multi-year deals - like Noel the year before and Harrell and a bunch of others. Still, he's not really a 2-way player. We need a 2-way player up front who can play starter's minutes - regardless of position.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#40 » by DCZards » Mon May 18, 2020 5:18 pm

Any significant improvement for the Zards next season will definitely depend in large part on improved defense and rebounding. Would love to draft a Wiseman or Okgonwu, but both will likely go in the top 6. (Of course, we can hope that the lottery improves the Zards draft position.)

Noel's a good option. I’d start Bryant and bring Nerlens off the bench. I’d play Noel 20-25 mins to avoid the wear-and-tear on his narrow, oft-injured body.

While a younger stud would be preferable, I wouldn’t rule out the Zards looking at a veteran center or PF to fill the role as a defensive presence, rebounder and shotblocker, especially given that they are clearly all-in with the veteran backcourt of Wall and Beal.

IIRC, there were rumors of the Zards being interested in Tristan Thompson around the trade deadline. He’s a free agent and I wouldn’t rule out the Zards going after him. Tristan just turned 29.

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