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Next year: how much better can we be?

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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#41 » by payitforward » Mon May 18, 2020 5:28 pm

dckingsfan wrote:With respect, probably both Dat and Ruz are correct at the same time.

It is faster to quickly change the trajectory of or defense with a Center. But is there a C out there like Richaun Holmes this year? Or a trade with New York for Mitchell Robinson?

Or is it faster to go the way of the Unicorn and look for "that" PF in the draft. And the pissy part - did we miss out last year with Brandon Clarke? But maybe there is a PF in this year's draft that fits that mold?

I've been wanting Richaun Holmes ever since he broke into the league, & I quickly came to realize how wrong I'd been about him in the run-up to the '15 draft/

There's no one in this draft who fits the Brandon Clarke "mold." He was one of the best players in the league this year -- as a rookie! That's more or less what his numbers at Gonzaga said he would be.

The closest I can approximate in this draft is Vernon Carey, whose overall numbers as a Freshman were as close to Zion's as I've seen (not saying he's Zion...). But, he's a pretty different kind of player from Clarke.

An even more extreme miss was Mitchell Robinson falling to #36.

I would offer our #9 pick to the Knicks for Robinson. All they can do is say no....

Meanwhile, none of that is going to happen.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#42 » by dckingsfan » Mon May 18, 2020 5:38 pm

payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:With respect, probably both Dat and Ruz are correct at the same time.

It is faster to quickly change the trajectory of or defense with a Center. But is there a C out there like Richaun Holmes this year? Or a trade with New York for Mitchell Robinson?

Or is it faster to go the way of the Unicorn and look for "that" PF in the draft. And the pissy part - did we miss out last year with Brandon Clarke? But maybe there is a PF in this year's draft that fits that mold?

I've been wanting Richaun Holmes ever since he broke into the league, & I quickly came to realize how wrong I'd been about him in the run-up to the '15 draft/

There's no one in this draft who fits the Brandon Clarke "mold." He was one of the best players in the league this year -- as a rookie! That's more or less what his numbers at Gonzaga said he would be.

The closest I can approximate in this draft is Vernon Carey, whose overall numbers as a Freshman were as close to Zion's as I've seen (not saying he's Zion...). But, he's a pretty different kind of player from Clarke.

An even more extreme miss was Mitchell Robinson falling to #36.

I would offer our #9 pick to the Knicks for Robinson. All they can do is say no....

Meanwhile, none of that is going to happen.

Absolutely #9 for Robinson - especially given what you say about the draft. Would you part with one of our young players as well (Rui, Bonga, Wagner or Brown)?
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#43 » by payitforward » Mon May 18, 2020 5:45 pm

DCZards wrote:Any significant improvement for the Zards next season will definitely depend in large part on improved defense and rebounding. Would love to draft a Wiseman or Okgonwu, but both will likely go in the top 6. (Of course, we can hope that the lottery improves the Zards draft position.)

Noel's a good option. I’d start Bryant and bring Nerlens off the bench. I’d play Noel 20-25 mins to avoid the wear-and-tear on his narrow, oft-injured body.

While a younger stud would be preferable, I wouldn’t rule out the Zards looking at a veteran center or PF to fill the role as a defensive presence, rebounder and shotblocker, especially given that they are clearly all-in with the veteran backcourt of Wall and Beal.

IIRC, there were rumors of the Zards being interested in Tristan Thompson around the trade deadline. He’s a free agent and I wouldn’t rule out the Zards going after him. Tristan just turned 29.

I sure hope not. Thompson has had a good career, but he has seemed to be trending down the last few years overall, & he's more likely to stay on that course than to change it.

Plus, tho we are clearly committed to Brad & John, it's only John Wall who doesn't fit the overall age profile of the team -- which is young & getting younger not older. I.e., I don't really see the fit you imply.

Above all, I can't see a reason to add even a single player who is not in the first 1/3 of his projected career, the "getting better year by year" part, that is. Doing that at least makes it possible that we become a really really good team while John is still really really good himself (which we all hope he'll be again).
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#44 » by payitforward » Mon May 18, 2020 6:34 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
payitforward wrote:...I would offer our #9 pick to the Knicks for Robinson. All they can do is say no....

Absolutely #9 for Robinson.... Would you part with one of our young players as well (Rui, Bonga, Wagner or Brown)?

Well, Wagner certainly! I'm not trading Bonga or Brown, however.

Rui is the interesting wild card in your question. I'm sure this will meet with firm opposition on the board, but no question: I'd trade our #9 plus Rui for Mitchell Robinson in a nano-second.

But... I'd try to get their #36 pick in the deal. With that pick & the one we have from the Bulls, I'd be hoping to get Tyler Bey & Xavier Tillman.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#45 » by Dat2U » Mon May 18, 2020 6:40 pm

dckingsfan wrote:With respect, probably both Dat and Ruz are correct at the same time.

It is faster to quickly change the trajectory of or defense with a Center. But is there a C out there like Richaun Holmes this year? Or a trade with New York for Mitchell Robinson?

Or is it faster to go the way of the Unicorn and look for "that" PF in the draft. And the pissy part - did we miss out last year with Brandon Clarke? But maybe there is a PF in this year's draft that fits that mold?


But Hachimura & Bertans are our PFs going forward, no? They didn't trade Bertans with intent on resigning him. I also do like the idea of Bertans on the floor with Wall/Beal. He could be that 3rd scorer. Moreso than Hachimura because of his shooting ability.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#46 » by Dat2U » Mon May 18, 2020 6:45 pm

payitforward wrote:We are a young team & trying to get younger. So, just as Rudy Gobert isn't really answers to the challenge I gave Dat, neither are e.g. Nikola Jokic, Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan or Jonas Valanciunas.

Nerlens Noel would be a great get. All we'd have to do is outbid OKC (assuming no one else enters the fray to try & acquire him).

But, Dat, I don't believe you can be saying "acquire Nerlens Noel, & we're ready to make 'a significant jump.'" Are you?

So, who is the relatively young, relatively affordable, relatively acquirable defensive Center stud we need to target?

For example, is Jarrett Allen on the list? Is Mitchell Robinson? Robert Williams?

Would you trade our #9 pick for Robinson or Williams? Or our #9 plus something significant for Jarrett Allen? Tony Bradley is languishing behind Gobert -- would you want him? What would you give for him? Would you trade for Daniel Gafford?


Swapping kicks with the Nets for Allen is something I'd consider. Durant and Kyrie both prefer DeAndre Jordan and Allen is about to get paid so I think his value is all that high.

With Williams I'd also consider swapping picks.

Robinson for the 9 straight up I'd probably do.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#47 » by Ruzious » Mon May 18, 2020 6:58 pm

payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
payitforward wrote:...I would offer our #9 pick to the Knicks for Robinson. All they can do is say no....

Absolutely #9 for Robinson.... Would you part with one of our young players as well (Rui, Bonga, Wagner or Brown)?

Well, Wagner certainly! I'm not trading Bonga or Brown, however.

Rui is the interesting wild card in your question. I'm sure this will meet with firm opposition on the board, but no question: I'd trade our #9 plus Rui for Mitchell Robinson in a nano-second.

But... I'd try to get their #36 pick in the deal. With that pick & the one we have from the Bulls, I'd be hoping to get Tyler Bey & Xavier Tillman.

I think you could get Robinson straight up for Rui, and I'd really like to see that. Robinson's got a rep for having a low BBIQ, and people are way overrating Rui right now - also NY could make a lot of international money from Rui. Robinson does make a lot of mistakes, but a lot of that is correctable with experience and not playing for NY.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#48 » by dckingsfan » Mon May 18, 2020 7:08 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Absolutely #9 for Robinson.... Would you part with one of our young players as well (Rui, Bonga, Wagner or Brown)?

Well, Wagner certainly! I'm not trading Bonga or Brown, however.

Rui is the interesting wild card in your question. I'm sure this will meet with firm opposition on the board, but no question: I'd trade our #9 plus Rui for Mitchell Robinson in a nano-second.

But... I'd try to get their #36 pick in the deal. With that pick & the one we have from the Bulls, I'd be hoping to get Tyler Bey & Xavier Tillman.

I think you could get Robinson straight up for Rui, and I'd really like to see that. Robinson's got a rep for having a low BBIQ, and people are way overrating Rui right now - also NY could make a lot of international money from Rui. Robinson does make a lot of mistakes, but a lot of that is correctable with experience and not playing for NY.

I would do either. Clearly, if you could just swap Robinson for Rui you would do it in a heartbeat given the current makeup of this team.

But I am guessing we will see some serious pushback on this...
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#49 » by DCZards » Mon May 18, 2020 7:29 pm

I'd be fine with a Rui for Robinson trade. I'd even consider trading the #9 for Robinson. Zards might even want to offer Bryant for Robinson, although I think the Knicks might prefer Rui over Bryant...if only for marketing purposes. But no way am I trading the #9 pick AND Rui for Robinson.

Robinson is already an awesome defensive presence and with some development and maturity (helped along by the presence of Wall & Beal) he could really fulfill his potential.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#50 » by Ruzious » Mon May 18, 2020 8:00 pm

DCZards wrote:I'd be fine with a Rui for Robinson trade. I'd even consider trading the #9 for Robinson. Zards might even want to offer Bryant for Robinson, although I think the Knicks might prefer Rui over Bryant...if only for marketing purposes. But no way am I trading the #9 pick AND Rui for Robinson.

Robinson is already an awesome defensive presence and with some development and maturity (helped along by the presence of Wall & Beal) he could really fulfill his potential.

I'd agree with that. There's a reason NY - as bad as they've been - 4 games behind the Wiz - started 34 year old PF Taj Gibson ahead of him at center. Rui averaged 29.7 minutes a game as a rookie, while Robinson averaged 23.1 in his 2nd season - granted, they're the same age. These things affect perception, and when making trades - perception carries more weight than reality.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#51 » by nate33 » Mon May 18, 2020 9:26 pm

Ruzious wrote:
DCZards wrote:I'd be fine with a Rui for Robinson trade. I'd even consider trading the #9 for Robinson. Zards might even want to offer Bryant for Robinson, although I think the Knicks might prefer Rui over Bryant...if only for marketing purposes. But no way am I trading the #9 pick AND Rui for Robinson.

Robinson is already an awesome defensive presence and with some development and maturity (helped along by the presence of Wall & Beal) he could really fulfill his potential.

I'd agree with that. There's a reason NY - as bad as they've been - 4 games behind the Wiz - started 34 year old PF Taj Gibson ahead of him at center. Rui averaged 29.7 minutes a game as a rookie, while Robinson averaged 23.1 in his 2nd season - granted, they're the same age. These things affect perception, and when making trades - perception carries more weight than reality.

Shouldn't that be cause for concern though? New York, with nothing to play for and no reason not to develop young players, chose to play a 34 year-old out of position at center rather than play their young 7-footer. Why?
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#52 » by doclinkin » Mon May 18, 2020 10:19 pm

Dat2U wrote:Swapping kicks with the Nets for Allen is something I'd consider. Durant and Kyrie both prefer DeAndre Jordan and Allen is about to get paid so I think his value is all that high.


And with the depressed salary cap, I suspect until league revenue climbs again, we will see players who play on short-year deals with a pandemic discount. There won't be quite the same robust buyers' market we have seen in years past. Players who do ink longer term extensions this year, even if they look pricey at this year's high end, may prove to be bargains when the market does open back up.

Of the players mentioned, Allen is one who looks like he'd fit with our young core. His value took a hit with the addition of DJ to that roster. I like him as worth a good asset in a draft with little buzz.

And following that? This is a team where he could shine. A young squad where spacing on the exterior (Bertans/Beal) and an attacking pass-first PG like Wallstar can draw attention to give him room to operate underneath, or in the open court if he simply runs with effort. If Wall does come back with resurrected legs and a jumper, then teams will load up to stop the point of attack and the wings, leaving Jarrett with the spotlight and open stage to fly and dunk his way to the nightly highlight countdowns. Wall is still tall and a crafty passer, he's never played with an uptempo high energy rim running ath-elite like Allen.

If he likes it then we might get him with a coupon for an audition year while teams wait out a down market. The rest depends on chemistry and will to win and if he himself likes the chemistry here, but i do like envisioning a team with his moxie and style. Defensive stops initiate the break, he runs with Wall/Ish to finish on the dump off. And he's a smart savvy player on a team with young veteran leadership.

This is the guy I'd love to steal.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#53 » by Ruzious » Mon May 18, 2020 10:52 pm

nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
DCZards wrote:I'd be fine with a Rui for Robinson trade. I'd even consider trading the #9 for Robinson. Zards might even want to offer Bryant for Robinson, although I think the Knicks might prefer Rui over Bryant...if only for marketing purposes. But no way am I trading the #9 pick AND Rui for Robinson.

Robinson is already an awesome defensive presence and with some development and maturity (helped along by the presence of Wall & Beal) he could really fulfill his potential.

I'd agree with that. There's a reason NY - as bad as they've been - 4 games behind the Wiz - started 34 year old PF Taj Gibson ahead of him at center. Rui averaged 29.7 minutes a game as a rookie, while Robinson averaged 23.1 in his 2nd season - granted, they're the same age. These things affect perception, and when making trades - perception carries more weight than reality.

Shouldn't that be cause for concern though? New York, with nothing to play for and no reason not to develop young players, chose to play a 34 year-old out of position at center rather than play their young 7-footer. Why?

There's definitely some Javale McGee to him. He'll drive you crazy with stupid fouls 25 from the basket - off the ball.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#54 » by Dat2U » Tue May 19, 2020 1:15 am

DCZards wrote:I'd be fine with a Rui for Robinson trade. I'd even consider trading the #9 for Robinson. Zards might even want to offer Bryant for Robinson, although I think the Knicks might prefer Rui over Bryant...if only for marketing purposes. But no way am I trading the #9 pick AND Rui for Robinson.

Robinson is already an awesome defensive presence and with some development and maturity (helped along by the presence of Wall & Beal) he could really fulfill his potential.


I don't see the Wizards dealing Rui. The connection to Japan and their media coverage and fan interest probably make him far more valuable off the court than on.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#55 » by payitforward » Tue May 19, 2020 1:17 am

nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
DCZards wrote:I'd be fine with a Rui for Robinson trade. I'd even consider trading the #9 for Robinson. Zards might even want to offer Bryant for Robinson, although I think the Knicks might prefer Rui over Bryant...if only for marketing purposes. But no way am I trading the #9 pick AND Rui for Robinson.

Robinson is already an awesome defensive presence and with some development and maturity (helped along by the presence of Wall & Beal) he could really fulfill his potential.

I'd agree with that. There's a reason NY - as bad as they've been - 4 games behind the Wiz - started 34 year old PF Taj Gibson ahead of him at center. Rui averaged 29.7 minutes a game as a rookie, while Robinson averaged 23.1 in his 2nd season - granted, they're the same age. These things affect perception, and when making trades - perception carries more weight than reality.

Shouldn't that be cause for concern though? New York, with nothing to play for and no reason not to develop young players, chose to play a 34 year-old out of position at center rather than play their young 7-footer. Why?

Robinson played almost 40% more minutes per game than Taj Gibson.

& then you look at what he did while on the court! :)

Just under 17 points per 40 minutes at a TS% of 72.6%. 5.25 offensive boards per 40 minutes.

To put it another way, every 40 minutes he took 9.67 shots. He made 7.18 of them. The 2.49 misses can be looked at in the context of the 5.25 offensive rebounds.

In any case, what the Knicks do with rotations is very like what the Knicks do in every other way: inexplicable. R.J. Barrett was awful last year. I mean just totally putrid. If you look at SGs who played 1000+ minutes, there were maybe 2 or 3 players in the league who were worse than R.J. Barrett. But, he was 2d in minutes on the Knicks.

We are getting kind of far from our putative subject -- adding front court defense as part of addressing the question, "how much better can we be?" Since I can't imagine our FO trading either Rui or our 2020 R1 pick, what we are maybe concluding is that...

Dat's suggestion that we can't make a significant jump w/o a big improvement in defense from the C position poses a significant hurdle. For sure, Noel would help, but... can we get him? & would he be enough?

All the same, we do seem to have the resources to improve next season -- possibly even approach a .500 record. Make sense?
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#56 » by payitforward » Tue May 19, 2020 1:23 am

doclinkin wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Swapping kicks with the Nets for Allen is something I'd consider. Durant and Kyrie both prefer DeAndre Jordan and Allen is about to get paid so I think his value is all that high.


And with the depressed salary cap, I suspect until league revenue climbs again, we will see players who play on short-year deals with a pandemic discount. There won't be quite the same robust buyers' market we have seen in years past. Players who do ink longer term extensions this year, even if they look pricey at this year's high end, may prove to be bargains when the market does open back up.

Of the players mentioned, Allen is one who looks like he'd fit with our young core. His value took a hit with the addition of DJ to that roster. I like him as worth a good asset in a draft with little buzz.

And following that? This is a team where he could shine. A young squad where spacing on the exterior (Bertans/Beal) and an attacking pass-first PG like Wallstar can draw attention to give him room to operate underneath, or in the open court if he simply runs with effort. If Wall does come back with resurrected legs and a jumper, then teams will load up to stop the point of attack and the wings, leaving Jarrett with the spotlight and open stage to fly and dunk his way to the nightly highlight countdowns. Wall is still tall and a crafty passer, he's never played with an uptempo high energy rim running ath-elite like Allen.

If he likes it then we might get him with a coupon for an audition year while teams wait out a down market. The rest depends on chemistry and will to win and if he himself likes the chemistry here, but i do like envisioning a team with his moxie and style. Defensive stops initiate the break, he runs with Wall/Ish to finish on the dump off. And he's a smart savvy player on a team with young veteran leadership.

This is the guy I'd love to steal.

Absolutely! Really, the #9 pick for him straight up is a good deal. Kid turned 22 3 weeks ago.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#57 » by Dat2U » Tue May 19, 2020 2:07 am

How I view the roster going into the offseason.

G Wall ... (Need) ... I. Smith
G Beal ... J. Robinson ... Mathews-2W
F (Need) ... Bonga ... T. Brown Jr.
F (Need) ... Hachimura ... J. Williams-2W... Schofield
C (Need) ... Bryant ... Wagner ... Pasecniks

Were loaded with unproven guys. Not one of the guys signed beyond this season is a starting quality player at this point in their careers outside Wall & Beal.

Obviously you hope Hachimura gets there and will get every opportunity. Bryant should at least be a solid backup. Bonga's length & defensive versatility could carve out a useful role. Robinson looked better in DC with some opportunities than he did in LA. So the cupboard isn't empty, but items available leave you wanting to go shopping.

So I project four major needs to actually contend. Help along each frontline position and John Wall insurance that allows Ish to play limited minutes no matter what.

Best options to address needs

1. Resign Davis Bertans - starting PF - He seems like the obvious keep. I think he should start over Hachimura with Wall back to provide better spacing. His defense leaves alot to be desired but he's the 6-10 floor spacer Wall never had. Him and Wall together with Beal could be very explosive in an ideal world.

2. Lottery pick - ideally you'd get a wing here. Not sure a wing worthy of lottery pick would be available. C is another option. It's a deep PG draft so that issue could best be resolved here.

3. Whoever we sign with the mid level - If we go C in the draft, I assume you target a wing here. Or vice versa. Big problem is the available free agent wings are terrible. Outside of Joe Harris who will probably get overpaid, it's an ugly group.

4. Re-sign Shabazz Napier - backup PG - Depending on what we do in the draft, he's the only other FA worth retaining

I doubt all needs get addressed. Especially the one at SF. They'll need resolve two needs to possibly squeak in the playoffs next year, Three to make the playoffs & possibly win a series (Previous ceiling with Wall); Four to do anything more.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#58 » by DCZards » Tue May 19, 2020 4:35 am

Here are some excerpts from an interview with Troy Brown. I'm hoping Troy will prove that he deserves the bulk of the minutes at SF.

While conducting a Q&A with readers of The Athletic recently, Brown mentioned a little nugget on this topic when a fan wondered about his offseason priorities.

“The thing I want to work on this offseason is definitely to keep on improving my 3-point shooting and then just working on my lateral quickness and guarding small point guards,” he wrote.

The 3-point shooting isn’t a surprise. Brown spent last summer trying to fine-tune his form, specifically working on his elbow, which tended to jerk out on his jumper. He added a few percentage points to his accuracy from deep this season, but he’s not all the way there yet. The second part, meanwhile, isn’t just lip service — or, since he scribed this during a written Q&A, fingertip service.

But right now, Brown is better offensively when he’s handling than when he’s playing off the ball, one reason he was more comfortable coming off the bench for most of this season. If he is at his best when he has the ball, the Wizards offense needs to be at its best when he has it. That concept meant playing him against reserve players during his second season. If he continues in that role, it could make sense to slide him to the point more often in pinches. Maybe Brown understands how to guard better with each season. Just about everyone inside the Wizards organization boasts about his mind. He could certainly develop into a heady team defender.

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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#59 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Tue May 19, 2020 5:15 am

Dat2U wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Who's our starting C next season?

If its Bryant with Wagner as the main backup were 35-40 win team even if Wall is at his best and healthy. Maybe could squeeze out a playoff spot in the East in that scenario.

For the Wizards to make any type of significant jump, the upgrade has to come defensively at the C position.

Could it also come from the PF position? I think you are referring to the weak defensive rebounding and rim protection from our FC rotation of Wagner, Bryant, Rui and Bertans? It seems like the bigger defensive hole there is at PF?


No, it must come from the C position. Of course PF matters. We could never adequately hide Antwan at the 4 when he was here but I'm focused on the C position b/c:

* It's the most impactful position on defense. A good C can cover up flaws of their teammates and make them look better.

* Bryant/Wagner are arguably a bottom 3 duo in the league on defense. Were not good enough defensively at the other positions to offset that.

Looking in free agency, we seem to mention Nerlens Noel every year and he was quite good and is coming off a one year deal. While not a floor spacer, he could help a lot with his swiss army knife toolkit on D. The switchability and shot blocking is exactly what we need.
Acquire Noel.

Draft Sticks Smith, a shot blocking plus rebounding PF/C, who can also play SF.

It's not that difficult.

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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#60 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Tue May 19, 2020 5:17 am

I liked Gafford at Arkansas.

He and Justin Patton have a lot of upside.
payitforward wrote:We are a young team & trying to get younger. So, just as Rudy Gobert isn't really answers to the challenge I gave Dat, neither are e.g. Nikola Jokic, Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan or Jonas Valanciunas.

Nerlens Noel would be a great get. All we'd have to do is outbid OKC (assuming no one else enters the fray to try & acquire him).

But, Dat, I don't believe you can be saying "acquire Nerlens Noel, & we're ready to make 'a significant jump.'" Are you?

So, who is the relatively young, relatively affordable, relatively acquirable defensive Center stud we need to target?

For example, is Jarrett Allen on the list? Is Mitchell Robinson? Robert Williams?

Would you trade our #9 pick for Robinson or Williams? Or our #9 plus something significant for Jarrett Allen? Tony Bradley is languishing behind Gobert -- would you want him? What would you give for him? Would you trade for Daniel Gafford?


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