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Next year: how much better can we be?

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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#61 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Tue May 19, 2020 5:20 am

Robinson is a rare talent. Rui is not.
DCZards wrote:I'd be fine with a Rui for Robinson trade. I'd even consider trading the #9 for Robinson. Zards might even want to offer Bryant for Robinson, although I think the Knicks might prefer Rui over Bryant...if only for marketing purposes. But no way am I trading the #9 pick AND Rui for Robinson.

Robinson is already an awesome defensive presence and with some development and maturity (helped along by the presence of Wall & Beal) he could really fulfill his potential.


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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#62 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Tue May 19, 2020 5:23 am

Bad organization? Dumb coach? Playing the contract $ player instead of the far superior talent?

Robinson is no different than Ben Wallace or Richaun Holmes. Just because they didn't play much as rookies doesn't mean they shouldn't have been playing.
nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
DCZards wrote:I'd be fine with a Rui for Robinson trade. I'd even consider trading the #9 for Robinson. Zards might even want to offer Bryant for Robinson, although I think the Knicks might prefer Rui over Bryant...if only for marketing purposes. But no way am I trading the #9 pick AND Rui for Robinson.

Robinson is already an awesome defensive presence and with some development and maturity (helped along by the presence of Wall & Beal) he could really fulfill his potential.

I'd agree with that. There's a reason NY - as bad as they've been - 4 games behind the Wiz - started 34 year old PF Taj Gibson ahead of him at center. Rui averaged 29.7 minutes a game as a rookie, while Robinson averaged 23.1 in his 2nd season - granted, they're the same age. These things affect perception, and when making trades - perception carries more weight than reality.

Shouldn't that be cause for concern though? New York, with nothing to play for and no reason not to develop young players, chose to play a 34 year-old out of position at center rather than play their young 7-footer. Why?


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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#63 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Tue May 19, 2020 5:24 am

We liked him draft day with the pick Ernie Grunfeld gave away just to get rid of Andrew Nicholson.

Jarrett Allen would be terrific with the Wizards.
doclinkin wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Swapping kicks with the Nets for Allen is something I'd consider. Durant and Kyrie both prefer DeAndre Jordan and Allen is about to get paid so I think his value is all that high.


And with the depressed salary cap, I suspect until league revenue climbs again, we will see players who play on short-year deals with a pandemic discount. There won't be quite the same robust buyers' market we have seen in years past. Players who do ink longer term extensions this year, even if they look pricey at this year's high end, may prove to be bargains when the market does open back up.

Of the players mentioned, Allen is one who looks like he'd fit with our young core. His value took a hit with the addition of DJ to that roster. I like him as worth a good asset in a draft with little buzz.

And following that? This is a team where he could shine. A young squad where spacing on the exterior (Bertans/Beal) and an attacking pass-first PG like Wallstar can draw attention to give him room to operate underneath, or in the open court if he simply runs with effort. If Wall does come back with resurrected legs and a jumper, then teams will load up to stop the point of attack and the wings, leaving Jarrett with the spotlight and open stage to fly and dunk his way to the nightly highlight countdowns. Wall is still tall and a crafty passer, he's never played with an uptempo high energy rim running ath-elite like Allen.

If he likes it then we might get him with a coupon for an audition year while teams wait out a down market. The rest depends on chemistry and will to win and if he himself likes the chemistry here, but i do like envisioning a team with his moxie and style. Defensive stops initiate the break, he runs with Wall/Ish to finish on the dump off. And he's a smart savvy player on a team with young veteran leadership.

This is the guy I'd love to steal.


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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#64 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Tue May 19, 2020 5:27 am

I was a Javale fan when virtually all of the Washington Wizards board posters were calling him clown (a la Flip Saunders, may he R.I.P.).

Javale McGee an effective starting C.
Ruzious wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:I'd agree with that. There's a reason NY - as bad as they've been - 4 games behind the Wiz - started 34 year old PF Taj Gibson ahead of him at center. Rui averaged 29.7 minutes a game as a rookie, while Robinson averaged 23.1 in his 2nd season - granted, they're the same age. These things affect perception, and when making trades - perception carries more weight than reality.

Shouldn't that be cause for concern though? New York, with nothing to play for and no reason not to develop young players, chose to play a 34 year-old out of position at center rather than play their young 7-footer. Why?

There's definitely some Javale McGee to him. He'll drive you crazy with stupid fouls 25 from the basket - off the ball.


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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#65 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Tue May 19, 2020 5:28 am

Rui should one day become an outstanding sixth man.

He needs to come off the bench for offensive purposes.
Dat2U wrote:
DCZards wrote:I'd be fine with a Rui for Robinson trade. I'd even consider trading the #9 for Robinson. Zards might even want to offer Bryant for Robinson, although I think the Knicks might prefer Rui over Bryant...if only for marketing purposes. But no way am I trading the #9 pick AND Rui for Robinson.

Robinson is already an awesome defensive presence and with some development and maturity (helped along by the presence of Wall & Beal) he could really fulfill his potential.


I don't see the Wizards dealing Rui. The connection to Japan and their media coverage and fan interest probably make him far more valuable off the court than on.


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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#66 » by Ruzious » Tue May 19, 2020 12:23 pm

3 reasons the Wiz should trade Rui:

1. He's overrated.

2. Defense - going with both he and Bertans at PF is suicidal for team defense and makes it more difficult to go with Bryant at C.

3. The international money is going to start drying up unless he improves. Right now, people expect he will, but that could change very quickly.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#67 » by queridiculo » Tue May 19, 2020 12:46 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:I was a Javale fan when virtually all of the Washington Wizards board posters were calling him clown (a la Flip Saunders, may he R.I.P.).

Javale McGee an effective starting C.
Ruzious wrote:
nate33 wrote:Shouldn't that be cause for concern though? New York, with nothing to play for and no reason not to develop young players, chose to play a 34 year-old out of position at center rather than play their young 7-footer. Why?

There's definitely some Javale McGee to him. He'll drive you crazy with stupid fouls 25 from the basket - off the ball.


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I have no idea why you chose to die on this cross, but McGee is a bum, it's absurd to call him an effective starting center when he's routinely proven that he cannot be relied on in anything but spot duty.

I am puzzled why you insist on continuing to advance this narrative that we're wrong on Javale.

He's still terrible.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#68 » by dckingsfan » Tue May 19, 2020 2:02 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
Dat2U wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Could it also come from the PF position? I think you are referring to the weak defensive rebounding and rim protection from our FC rotation of Wagner, Bryant, Rui and Bertans? It seems like the bigger defensive hole there is at PF?

No, it must come from the C position. Of course PF matters. We could never adequately hide Antwan at the 4 when he was here but I'm focused on the C position b/c:

* It's the most impactful position on defense. A good C can cover up flaws of their teammates and make them look better.

* Bryant/Wagner are arguably a bottom 3 duo in the league on defense. Were not good enough defensively at the other positions to offset that.

Looking in free agency, we seem to mention Nerlens Noel every year and he was quite good and is coming off a one year deal. While not a floor spacer, he could help a lot with his swiss army knife toolkit on D. The switchability and shot blocking is exactly what we need.
Acquire Noel.

Draft Sticks Smith, a shot blocking plus rebounding PF/C, who can also play SF.

It's not that difficult.

Bookmarking Jalen Smith...
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#69 » by payitforward » Tue May 19, 2020 3:34 pm

Dat2U wrote:How I view the roster going into the offseason.

G Wall ... (Need) ... I. Smith
G Beal ... J. Robinson ... Mathews-2W
F (Need) ... Bonga ... T. Brown Jr.
F (Need) ... Hachimura ... J. Williams-2W... Schofield
C (Need) ... Bryant ... Wagner ... Pasecniks

Were loaded with unproven guys. Not one of the guys signed beyond this season is a starting quality player at this point in their careers outside Wall & Beal.

Obviously you hope Hachimura gets there and will get every opportunity. Bryant should at least be a solid backup. Bonga's length & defensive versatility could carve out a useful role. Robinson looked better in DC with some opportunities than he did in LA. So the cupboard isn't empty, but items available leave you wanting to go shopping.

So I project four major needs to actually contend. Help along each frontline position and John Wall insurance that allows Ish to play limited minutes no matter what.

Best options to address needs

1. Resign Davis Bertans - starting PF - He seems like the obvious keep. I think he should start over Hachimura with Wall back to provide better spacing. His defense leaves alot to be desired but he's the 6-10 floor spacer Wall never had. Him and Wall together with Beal could be very explosive in an ideal world.

2. Lottery pick - ideally you'd get a wing here. Not sure a wing worthy of lottery pick would be available. C is another option. It's a deep PG draft so that issue could best be resolved here.

3. Whoever we sign with the mid level - If we go C in the draft, I assume you target a wing here. Or vice versa. Big problem is the available free agent wings are terrible. Outside of Joe Harris who will probably get overpaid, it's an ugly group.

4. Re-sign Shabazz Napier - backup PG - Depending on what we do in the draft, he's the only other FA worth retaining

I doubt all needs get addressed. Especially the one at SF. They'll need resolve two needs to possibly squeak in the playoffs next year, Three to make the playoffs & possibly win a series (Previous ceiling with Wall); Four to do anything more.

1. We went 20-34 -- obviously we will not address all our needs.

2. As I've made clear a zillion times, I don't believe in the "address your needs" approach. I believe in "get the best players you can get. Period. Any opportunity. Any position." Do that & you have better players. Better players give you guys to trade for more value in the direction of roster-balancing. Life is not defined by the ability to follow a recipe; it's defined by the ability to recognize opportunities & follow them. Adapt, reshape, grow. In fact, there is no such thing as "a need."

3. There is no such animal as "a starting quality player." There are just players. How good they are is distributed on the usual bell-shaped curve, meaning there are few who are really good. The better a guy plays this month the more he should play next month.

4. You can't rebuild a team via "proven" anything. "Proven" means "costs more." Having "unproven" players is a good thing. What's bad is having guys who have "proven" they aren't any good.

5. Specifically -- a) sure, re-sign Davis; I mean... it's going to happen, no point in wasting energy nit-picking it. b) Re-sign Shabazz Napier, absolutely! Prototype of a high-value player. c) Stay the h8ll out of the FA market! No bargains available there. d) Maximize what you get out of the draft; no that doesn't mean stay with your #9 pick (tho it doesn't necessarily mean trade down either, even that's a good idea more often than not).
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#70 » by nate33 » Tue May 19, 2020 4:21 pm

Ruzious wrote:3 reasons the Wiz should trade Rui:

1. He's overrated.

2. Defense - going with both he and Bertans at PF is suicidal for team defense and makes it more difficult to go with Bryant at C.

3. The international money is going to start drying up unless he improves. Right now, people expect he will, but that could change very quickly.

I'm going to buck the trend here. I really like Rui and think he will evolve into an above-average 2-way player.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#71 » by Ruzious » Tue May 19, 2020 4:47 pm

nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:3 reasons the Wiz should trade Rui:

1. He's overrated.

2. Defense - going with both he and Bertans at PF is suicidal for team defense and makes it more difficult to go with Bryant at C.

3. The international money is going to start drying up unless he improves. Right now, people expect he will, but that could change very quickly.

I'm going to buck the trend here. I really like Rui and think he will evolve into an above-average 2-way player.

I'd be happy to lose that argument and eat crow year after year. You all don't know what it's like to be right all the time - it's the cross I bare. :dontknow:
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#72 » by doclinkin » Tue May 19, 2020 5:14 pm

nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:3 reasons the Wiz should trade Rui:

1. He's overrated.

2. Defense - going with both he and Bertans at PF is suicidal for team defense and makes it more difficult to go with Bryant at C.

3. The international money is going to start drying up unless he improves. Right now, people expect he will, but that could change very quickly.

I'm going to buck the trend here. I really like Rui and think he will evolve into an above-average 2-way player.


I'm gonna second this.

Work ethic is a talent. Looking at Rui's progression and listening to those who know him best, I think we will see consistent improvement from this highly talented player. His game has radically adjusted based on his role, whether in international play or with Gonzaga. With Japan and as a youth he was a face-up attacking player who molded his game from highlights of Carmelo Anthony after seeing video of his Olympic play. You can see a lot of that in his game. At Big Man University Mark Few is notable for building highly skilled frontcourt players. Skilled if not physically dominant. As a rookie Coach Few said that for all that Rui was dominant in practice and a workout demon he couldn't play him in games because he didn't speak english. He learned. Damn quickly. His minutes went 130 as a Freshman, 765 sophomore starting only 2 games, to 1117 playing 30 mpg, starting all 37 games as teams scoring focal point as a junior. As his usage increased his TS and EFG% and all advanced metrics improved as well. His role on that team was as their primary scorer, where ~30% of their offense flowed through his hands, and despite teams loading up to stop him he still scored super efficiently.

You want to quit on a guy after his rookie season? Yes rebounding and positional defense are not his strengths. He has shown good talent in one on one defense, but the players who are best at these skills are players who have been playing team ball their whole life. It's tough to practice rebounding by watching highlights. It's impossible to practice team defense by yourself in a gym. Is unlikely that a rookie with a strong work ethic will improve?

He scored easily early on then the scouts attacked his game. Then he struggled. He extended his range and started hitting threes, then scouts learned to attack him there and he struggled. Then the season was axed. Could he have adjusted again? Yeah probably. He needed to add a two-man game to spring free for easy buckets when good defenders get into his routine.

But If you look at his player-pair on/off numbers he played best next to Ish Smith and Shabazz Napier. And Isaac Bonga. Guys who pass. And hey we are adding Professor Wall back from a sabbatical of film study and a coaching apprenticeship. Pretty sure he can find a way to feature an active Big who is not intimidated by any situation and wants to work hard to please the collective. Coaches. Teammates. Fans. DC. And all of Japan.

Why are we trying to quit on him right now? Who says he is overrated. As a rookie. Show me how is he even properly 'rated'. I think he shows strong in his 3rd year like most players do. And if not? I'll say: cool, we ink him for a cheaper 2nd contract. Then he takes over. Because looking at the things he has been adjusting on court I have seen him changing and altering and learning and translating coach speak into small adjustments. Even while playing next to a hero-ball me first player who blew a crater in anything team related on either side of the ball. How is any player going to learn good team defense next to the ghost of Isaiah Thomas?

I think he's going to positively surprise the fans who are jumping to be first to bail on the guy. While teams are idle the only things a player can reliably work on with coaches is their body, and their jumper. No chance Rui comes back stronger? With more range? Because the guy who coaches had to force to stop practicing and working out so as not to overwork himself -- because that guy is going to get lazy?
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#73 » by Ruzious » Tue May 19, 2020 6:10 pm

Tbh, I quit on him before his rookie year. I think he can - and will - be a solid offensive player and a poor defender. Granted, if hard work can change that, he'll become a good player. I just don't know if it can overcome his poor defensive instincts.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#74 » by miller31time » Tue May 19, 2020 6:16 pm

doclinkin wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:3 reasons the Wiz should trade Rui:

1. He's overrated.

2. Defense - going with both he and Bertans at PF is suicidal for team defense and makes it more difficult to go with Bryant at C.

3. The international money is going to start drying up unless he improves. Right now, people expect he will, but that could change very quickly.

I'm going to buck the trend here. I really like Rui and think he will evolve into an above-average 2-way player.


I'm gonna second this.

Work ethic is a talent. Looking at Rui's progression and listening to those who know him best, I think we will see consistent improvement from this highly talented player. His game has radically adjusted based on his role, whether in international play or with Gonzaga. With Japan and as a youth he was a face-up attacking player who molded his game from highlights of Carmelo Anthony after seeing video of his Olympic play. You can see a lot of that in his game. At Big Man University Mark Few is notable for building highly skilled frontcourt players. Skilled if not physically dominant. As a rookie Coach Few said that for all that Rui was dominant in practice and a workout demon he couldn't play him in games because he didn't speak english. He learned. Damn quickly. His minutes went 130 as a Freshman, 765 sophomore starting only 2 games, to 1117 playing 30 mpg, starting all 37 games as teams scoring focal point as a junior. As his usage increased his TS and EFG% and all advanced metrics improved as well. His role on that team was as their primary scorer, where ~30% of their offense flowed through his hands, and despite teams loading up to stop him he still scored super efficiently.

You want to quit on a guy after his rookie season? Yes rebounding and positional defense are not his strengths. He has shown good talent in one on one defense, but the players who are best at these skills are players who have been playing team ball their whole life. It's tough to practice rebounding by watching highlights. It's impossible to practice team defense by yourself in a gym. Is unlikely that a rookie with a strong work ethic will improve?

He scored easily early on then the scouts attacked his game. Then he struggled. He extended his range and started hitting threes, then scouts learned to attack him there and he struggled. Then the season was axed. Could he have adjusted again? Yeah probably. He needed to add a two-man game to spring free for easy buckets when good defenders get into his routine.

But If you look at his player-pair on/off numbers he played best next to Ish Smith and Shabazz Napier. And Isaac Bonga. Guys who pass. And hey we are adding Professor Wall back from a sabbatical of film study and a coaching apprenticeship. Pretty sure he can find a way to feature an active Big who is not intimidated by any situation and wants to work hard to please the collective. Coaches. Teammates. Fans. DC. And all of Japan.

Why are we trying to quit on him right now? Who says he is overrated. As a rookie. Show me how is he even properly 'rated'. I think he shows strong in his 3rd year like most players do. And if not? I'll say: cool, we ink him for a cheaper 2nd contract. Then he takes over. Because looking at the things he has been adjusting on court I have seen him changing and altering and learning and translating coach speak into small adjustments. Even while playing next to a hero-ball me first player who blew a crater in anything team related on either side of the ball. How is any player going to learn good team defense next to the ghost of Isaiah Thomas?

I think he's going to positively surprise the fans who are jumping to be first to bail on the guy. While teams are idle the only things a player can reliably work on with coaches is their body, and their jumper. No chance Rui comes back stronger? With more range? Because the guy who coaches had to force to stop practicing and working out so as not to overwork himself -- because that guy is going to get lazy?


Good post, Doc. I agree with you (and Nate and others) that we have something special in Rui.

And our good friend WizKev, aka Nivek aka TheSecretWeapon aka Mr. Broom agrees.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#75 » by miller31time » Tue May 19, 2020 6:19 pm

Ruzious wrote:Tbh, I quit on him before his rookie year. I think he can - and will - be a solid offensive player and a poor defender. Granted, if hard work can change that, he'll become a good player. I just don't know if it can overcome his poor defensive instincts.


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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#76 » by payitforward » Tue May 19, 2020 7:24 pm

Ruzious wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:3 reasons the Wiz should trade Rui:

1. He's overrated.

2. Defense - going with both he and Bertans at PF is suicidal for team defense and makes it more difficult to go with Bryant at C.

3. The international money is going to start drying up unless he improves. Right now, people expect he will, but that could change very quickly.

I'm going to buck the trend here. I really like Rui and think he will evolve into an above-average 2-way player.

I'd be happy to lose that argument and eat crow year after year. You all don't know what it's like to be right all the time - it's the cross I bare. :dontknow:

Given that Ruz & I often agree, it can't be denied that he's often right.

More seriously, I imagine we'd all like for Rui to become a tremendous player. We'd all like him to become a really good player. But, his only real job next year is to improve significantly.

You can't ask this kid to live up to some arbitrary set of expectations -- after all, he didn't choose himself in the draft!

Moreover, it's not Rui's fault that his Gonzaga teammate Brandon Clarke dropped to the 21st spot then made every team from 3-20 look like idiots (especially since it was one of top 2 draft picking teams which did take him -- w/ their 2d choice!).
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#77 » by dckingsfan » Tue May 19, 2020 11:10 pm

Ruzious wrote:Tbh, I quit on him before his rookie year. I think he can - and will - be a solid offensive player and a poor defender. Granted, if hard work can change that, he'll become a good player. I just don't know if it can overcome his poor defensive instincts.

I guess I have to go with you on this one - even if he overcomes his "poor instincts" I think it will be a reach for him to ever be a good defensive player.

Put the shoe leather next to my desk with a note to review in 2023...
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#78 » by bsilver » Wed May 20, 2020 1:18 am

Rui - what Doc said
Brandon Clarke - what PIF said, and said, and said.....
Javale McGee - what qeridiculo said, but I like McGee and happy he's stuck around the league
Mitchell Robinson - I liked him for our 15th pick instead of TBjr, but like Brown now. I think our coaching gets in the way of player development.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#79 » by I_Like_Dirt » Wed May 20, 2020 1:44 am

doclinkin wrote:
nate33 wrote:I'm going to buck the trend here. I really like Rui and think he will evolve into an above-average 2-way player.


I'm gonna second this.



Count me as a third. All that traditional old-school mentality of blocks and rebounds and such has a place but it's not nearly the whole picture. Rui strikes me as a decidedly smart player in terms of understanding how the game works. Not nearly the same player, obviously, but his approach to the game sort of reminds me of Chris Bosh, who was roasted by Raptor fans for poor defense and then lauded by Heat fans when he suddenly had good teammates and people started to better understand what he was actually doing on defense. Dirk Nowitzki is another player who wasn't nearly as bad on defense as he was made out to be. Heck, not even the same position but the Wizards own Brad Beal is an example of how defense can come over time with some of the additional caveats that it's extremely difficult to shoulder a primary defensive role while also being an offensive focal point.

Those are some pretty big names and I'm not sure if Rui has the ability to hit the offensive heights of either of those two guys, but neither of them joined the league as instant all-stars. Unless the return was waaaaaaay over the top, trading Rui strikes me as someone the Wizards would really, really, really regret letting go if it came to that. Thankfully, I don't get the impression it will come to that.
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Re: Next year: how much better can we be? 

Post#80 » by payitforward » Wed May 20, 2020 2:14 am

This is not the Rui Hachimura thread -- tho... so what I guess? But, I wrote something about him in his thread that will likely surprise most of you coming from my keyboard.

I think we would all love to see this kid succeed -- for the team, of course, but also b/c he seems to be such an outstanding young guy! Not just his work ethic but his demeanor... just a really high quality young man.

I'm not sure confident predictions of what he is going to do, based on your personal crystal ball, does him all that much of a favor. But... some other stuff does -- you'll have to read the Rui thread to know what I mean!
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.

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