Re: Next year: how much better can we be?
Posted: Wed May 20, 2020 3:37 am
We have one big governor on our success. Scott Brooks. We’ll only ever be so good with him as coach.
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long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:We have one big governor on our success. Scott Brooks. We’ll only ever be so good with him as coach.
nate33 wrote:long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:We have one big governor on our success. Scott Brooks. We’ll only ever be so good with him as coach.
I don't think Brooks is the problem. He's not a terrible coach. He's not great either, but he's good enough to match up with the other mediocre coaches in this league. In my opinion, there are only 5 or 6 truly good coaches who can significantly boost the win total of a team above it's talent level. Brooks isn't one of them, but that's no crime.
I agree that we are getting close to the time when we should switch coaches. It's not out of some growing hatred of Brooks or anything. It's just that most players tend to tune out their coach after a couple of years once they've learned everything they're going to learn from them. I think we are at that point with Brooks. Swapping him for another mediocre coach would be a benefit because at least it would be a NEW mediocre coach.
dckingsfan wrote:nate33 wrote:long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:We have one big governor on our success. Scott Brooks. We’ll only ever be so good with him as coach.
I don't think Brooks is the problem. He's not a terrible coach. He's not great either, but he's good enough to match up with the other mediocre coaches in this league. In my opinion, there are only 5 or 6 truly good coaches who can significantly boost the win total of a team above it's talent level. Brooks isn't one of them, but that's no crime.
I agree that we are getting close to the time when we should switch coaches. It's not out of some growing hatred of Brooks or anything. It's just that most players tend to tune out their coach after a couple of years once they've learned everything they're going to learn from them. I think we are at that point with Brooks. Swapping him for another mediocre coach would be a benefit because at least it would be a NEW mediocre coach.
Here is the "thing" with the new mediocre coach that we need.
He needs to limit Wall/Beal's minutes to 32ish. Doable for a new mediocre coach?
He needs to implement a better defensive schema for this collective crew. Doable for a new mediocre coach?
He needs to keep Wall from pounding the ball and Wall/Beal from playing hero ball at the end of games. Doable for a new mediocre coach?
Or would that make him a good coach?
nate33 wrote:dckingsfan wrote:nate33 wrote:I don't think Brooks is the problem. He's not a terrible coach. He's not great either, but he's good enough to match up with the other mediocre coaches in this league. In my opinion, there are only 5 or 6 truly good coaches who can significantly boost the win total of a team above it's talent level. Brooks isn't one of them, but that's no crime.
I agree that we are getting close to the time when we should switch coaches. It's not out of some growing hatred of Brooks or anything. It's just that most players tend to tune out their coach after a couple of years once they've learned everything they're going to learn from them. I think we are at that point with Brooks. Swapping him for another mediocre coach would be a benefit because at least it would be a NEW mediocre coach.
Here is the "thing" with the new mediocre coach that we need.
He needs to limit Wall/Beal's minutes to 32ish. Doable for a new mediocre coach?
He needs to implement a better defensive schema for this collective crew. Doable for a new mediocre coach?
He needs to keep Wall from pounding the ball and Wall/Beal from playing hero ball at the end of games. Doable for a new mediocre coach?
Or would that make him a good coach?
The oddsmakers predicted the Wizards to finish with 27 wins. They finished on pace for 31, so Brooks did something right. And they did it despite giving tank commander Isaiah Thomas a permanent starting position.
Also, Beal "pounding the ball" led the team to the 12th best offense in the league despite having easily the worst 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th starter in the league. How many teams started worse players than Isaiah Thomas and Bonga? Our second best player, Bryant, wouldn't even start on half the teams in the league.
I'm not trying to defend Brooks. I don't think he's awesome or anything. But I think you are deluding yourself if you think that a different coach would have made much difference in our record.
Ruzious wrote:Tbh, I quit on him before his rookie year. I think he can - and will - be a solid offensive player and a poor defender. Granted, if hard work can change that, he'll become a good player. I just don't know if it can overcome his poor defensive instincts.
miller31time wrote:doclinkin wrote:nate33 wrote:I'm going to buck the trend here. I really like Rui and think he will evolve into an above-average 2-way player.
I'm gonna second this.
Work ethic is a talent. Looking at Rui's progression and listening to those who know him best, I think we will see consistent improvement from this highly talented player. His game has radically adjusted based on his role, whether in international play or with Gonzaga. With Japan and as a youth he was a face-up attacking player who molded his game from highlights of Carmelo Anthony after seeing video of his Olympic play. You can see a lot of that in his game. At Big Man University Mark Few is notable for building highly skilled frontcourt players. Skilled if not physically dominant. As a rookie Coach Few said that for all that Rui was dominant in practice and a workout demon he couldn't play him in games because he didn't speak english. He learned. Damn quickly. His minutes went 130 as a Freshman, 765 sophomore starting only 2 games, to 1117 playing 30 mpg, starting all 37 games as teams scoring focal point as a junior. As his usage increased his TS and EFG% and all advanced metrics improved as well. His role on that team was as their primary scorer, where ~30% of their offense flowed through his hands, and despite teams loading up to stop him he still scored super efficiently.
You want to quit on a guy after his rookie season? Yes rebounding and positional defense are not his strengths. He has shown good talent in one on one defense, but the players who are best at these skills are players who have been playing team ball their whole life. It's tough to practice rebounding by watching highlights. It's impossible to practice team defense by yourself in a gym. Is unlikely that a rookie with a strong work ethic will improve?
He scored easily early on then the scouts attacked his game. Then he struggled. He extended his range and started hitting threes, then scouts learned to attack him there and he struggled. Then the season was axed. Could he have adjusted again? Yeah probably. He needed to add a two-man game to spring free for easy buckets when good defenders get into his routine.
But If you look at his player-pair on/off numbers he played best next to Ish Smith and Shabazz Napier. And Isaac Bonga. Guys who pass. And hey we are adding Professor Wall back from a sabbatical of film study and a coaching apprenticeship. Pretty sure he can find a way to feature an active Big who is not intimidated by any situation and wants to work hard to please the collective. Coaches. Teammates. Fans. DC. And all of Japan.
Why are we trying to quit on him right now? Who says he is overrated. As a rookie. Show me how is he even properly 'rated'. I think he shows strong in his 3rd year like most players do. And if not? I'll say: cool, we ink him for a cheaper 2nd contract. Then he takes over. Because looking at the things he has been adjusting on court I have seen him changing and altering and learning and translating coach speak into small adjustments. Even while playing next to a hero-ball me first player who blew a crater in anything team related on either side of the ball. How is any player going to learn good team defense next to the ghost of Isaiah Thomas?
I think he's going to positively surprise the fans who are jumping to be first to bail on the guy. While teams are idle the only things a player can reliably work on with coaches is their body, and their jumper. No chance Rui comes back stronger? With more range? Because the guy who coaches had to force to stop practicing and working out so as not to overwork himself -- because that guy is going to get lazy?
Good post, Doc. I agree with you (and Nate and others) that we have something special in Rui.
And our good friend WizKev, aka Nivek aka TheSecretWeapon aka Mr. Broom agrees.
Historical comps from my historical doppelganger machine seem about right for a player who was an average producer but still has a lot of work to do on his game. They include a collection of “good-not-great” and “not so good” like Aaron Gordon, Jabari Parker, Ryan Gomes, Marvin Williams, Michael Finley and TJ Warren.
Considering Hachimura’s anachronistic penchant for midrange jumpers, it’s appropriate that one of his top comps is former Bullet John Williams.
payitforward wrote:Ruzious wrote:nate33 wrote:I'm going to buck the trend here. I really like Rui and think he will evolve into an above-average 2-way player.
I'd be happy to lose that argument and eat crow year after year. You all don't know what it's like to be right all the time - it's the cross I bare.
Given that Ruz & I often agree, it can't be denied that he's often right.
More seriously, I imagine we'd all like for Rui to become a tremendous player. We'd all like him to become a really good player. But, his only real job next year is to improve significantly.
You can't ask this kid to live up to some arbitrary set of expectations -- after all, he didn't choose himself in the draft!
Moreover, it's not Rui's fault that his Gonzaga teammate Brandon Clarke dropped to the 21st spot then made every team from 3-20 look like idiots (especially since it was one of top 2 draft picking teams which did take him -- w/ their 2d choice!).
bsilver wrote:Rui - what Doc said
Brandon Clarke - what PIF said, and said, and said.....
Javale McGee - what qeridiculo said, but I like McGee and happy he's stuck around the league
Mitchell Robinson - I liked him for our 15th pick instead of TBjr, but like Brown now. I think our coaching gets in the way of player development.
nate33 wrote:long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:We have one big governor on our success. Scott Brooks. We’ll only ever be so good with him as coach.
I don't think Brooks is the problem. He's not a terrible coach. He's not great either, but he's good enough to match up with the other mediocre coaches in this league. In my opinion, there are only 5 or 6 truly good coaches who can significantly boost the win total of a team above it's talent level. Brooks isn't one of them, but that's no crime.
I agree that we are getting close to the time when we should switch coaches. It's not out of some growing hatred of Brooks or anything. It's just that most players tend to tune out their coach after a couple of years once they've learned everything they're going to learn from them. I think we are at that point with Brooks. Swapping him for another mediocre coach would be a benefit because at least it would be a NEW mediocre coach.
nate33 wrote:dckingsfan wrote:nate33 wrote:I don't think Brooks is the problem. He's not a terrible coach. He's not great either, but he's good enough to match up with the other mediocre coaches in this league. In my opinion, there are only 5 or 6 truly good coaches who can significantly boost the win total of a team above it's talent level. Brooks isn't one of them, but that's no crime.
I agree that we are getting close to the time when we should switch coaches. It's not out of some growing hatred of Brooks or anything. It's just that most players tend to tune out their coach after a couple of years once they've learned everything they're going to learn from them. I think we are at that point with Brooks. Swapping him for another mediocre coach would be a benefit because at least it would be a NEW mediocre coach.
Here is the "thing" with the new mediocre coach that we need.
He needs to limit Wall/Beal's minutes to 32ish. Doable for a new mediocre coach?
He needs to implement a better defensive schema for this collective crew. Doable for a new mediocre coach?
He needs to keep Wall from pounding the ball and Wall/Beal from playing hero ball at the end of games. Doable for a new mediocre coach?
Or would that make him a good coach?
The oddsmakers predicted the Wizards to finish with 27 wins. They finished on pace for 31, so Brooks did something right. And they did it despite giving tank commander Isaiah Thomas a permanent starting position.
Also, Beal "pounding the ball" led the team to the 12th best offense in the league despite having easily the worst 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th starter in the league. How many teams started worse players than Isaiah Thomas and Bonga? Our second best player, Bryant, wouldn't even start on half the teams in the league.
I'm not trying to defend Brooks. I don't think he's awesome or anything. But I think you are deluding yourself if you think that a different coach would have made much difference in our record.
dckingsfan wrote:nate33 wrote:dckingsfan wrote:Here is the "thing" with the new mediocre coach that we need.
He needs to limit Wall/Beal's minutes to 32ish. Doable for a new mediocre coach?
He needs to implement a better defensive schema for this collective crew. Doable for a new mediocre coach?
He needs to keep Wall from pounding the ball and Wall/Beal from playing hero ball at the end of games. Doable for a new mediocre coach?
Or would that make him a good coach?
The oddsmakers predicted the Wizards to finish with 27 wins. They finished on pace for 31, so Brooks did something right. And they did it despite giving tank commander Isaiah Thomas a permanent starting position.
Also, Beal "pounding the ball" led the team to the 12th best offense in the league despite having easily the worst 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th starter in the league. How many teams started worse players than Isaiah Thomas and Bonga? Our second best player, Bryant, wouldn't even start on half the teams in the league.
I'm not trying to defend Brooks. I don't think he's awesome or anything. But I think you are deluding yourself if you think that a different coach would have made much difference in our record.
Well, I am delusional - but that is an entirely different issue
But hit those other points I brought up as well. Limiting Wall/Beal minutes? A better defensive schema?
And then you missed the forest for the trees where I was making fun of myself - guess green font is my friend.
nate33 wrote:The oddsmakers predicted the Wizards to finish with 27 wins. They finished on pace for 31, so Brooks did something right. And they did it despite giving tank commander Isaiah Thomas a permanent starting position....
nate33 wrote:...Also, Beal "pounding the ball" led the team to the 12th best offense in the league despite having easily the worst 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th starter in the league. How many teams started worse players than Isaiah Thomas and Bonga? Our second best player, Bryant, wouldn't even start on half the teams in the league.
nate33 wrote:I'm not trying to defend Brooks. I don't think he's awesome or anything. But I think you are deluding yourself if you think that a different coach would have made much difference in our record.
nate33 wrote:long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:We have one big governor on our success. Scott Brooks. We’ll only ever be so good with him as coach.
I don't think Brooks is the problem. He's not a terrible coach. He's not great either, but he's good enough to match up with the other mediocre coaches in this league. In my opinion, there are only 5 or 6 truly good coaches who can significantly boost the win total of a team above it's talent level. Brooks isn't one of them, but that's no crime.
I agree that we are getting close to the time when we should switch coaches. It's not out of some growing hatred of Brooks or anything. It's just that most players tend to tune out their coach after a couple of years once they've learned everything they're going to learn from them. I think we are at that point with Brooks. Swapping him for another mediocre coach would be a benefit because at least it would be a NEW mediocre coach.
Ruzious wrote:Tbh, I quit on him before his rookie year. I think he can - and will - be a solid offensive player and a poor defender. Granted, if hard work can change that, he'll become a good player. I just don't know if it can overcome his poor defensive instincts.
payitforward wrote:I think we would all love to see this kid succeed -- for the team, of course, but also b/c he seems to be such an outstanding young guy! Not just his work ethic but his demeanor... just a really high quality young man.
I'm not sure confident predictions of what he is going to do, based on your personal crystal ball, does him all that much of a favor.
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:You're right.
Nate and doc are both wrong.
I'm going for blunt and all the way right or wrong. No in between.
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:McGee starts ahead of Dwight Howard. He's got two rings and has a decent chance at another THIS season.
Just ignore his 33 point, 20 rebound, 6 block game.
Ignore his rebounding percentage and effective rebounding percentage being career best.
Ignore PER and WS/48.
Ignore his minutes for Golden State and the Lakers.
When McGee plays another 5 years and wins another title or two I hope we're still debating this. McGee is skilled and a much better basketball player than he's been given credit.bsilver wrote:Rui - what Doc said
Brandon Clarke - what PIF said, and said, and said.....
Javale McGee - what qeridiculo said, but I like McGee and happy he's stuck around the league
Mitchell Robinson - I liked him for our 15th pick instead of TBjr, but like Brown now. I think our coaching gets in the way of player development.