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Potential Free Agent Signings

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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#41 » by Kanyewest » Fri Sep 4, 2020 6:50 am

payitforward wrote:All this makes me want to go back to the trade thread & think about how to get Jarrett Allen.


Don't trade a 1st rounder which turned out to be Jarrett Allen/Andrew Nicholson for a rental of Bojan. Also maybe don't sign Ian, Jason Smith, and Nicholson to long term contracts.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#42 » by dckingsfan » Fri Sep 4, 2020 1:56 pm

Kanyewest wrote:
payitforward wrote:All this makes me want to go back to the trade thread & think about how to get Jarrett Allen.

Don't trade a 1st rounder which turned out to be Jarrett Allen/Andrew Nicholson for a rental of Bojan. Also maybe don't sign Ian, Jason Smith, and Nicholson to long term contracts.

Yeah, our previous GM was such a cluster... it is going to take time to dig out from his legacy. Possibly as long as 2023.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#43 » by I_Like_Dirt » Fri Sep 4, 2020 4:26 pm

doclinkin wrote:
wall_glizzy wrote:Watching the last couple of Celtics games, I'm thinking more and more that their approach to the center position might be the way of the future. While I doubt they'd say no to a blue-chip upgrade at the position, it seems like they're getting a ton of production and versatility out of a committee approach based around the whole spectrum of positional archetypes.

I'm just spitballing here, but with even elite centers getting neutralized by playoff game-planning year after year, it seems like their $12 million combination of an efficient scorer/rebounder (Kanter), a skinny but hyper-athletic rim protector (Robert Williams) and an unspectacular but efficient linchpin of the team defensive scheme (Theis) is getting them way more mileage than a single premier option could.

For me, the question of the offseason is not "who is the single best big on the market?," but rather "which 'big' skillsets/player archetypes do we already have on the roster, and which missing ones are we able to find in free agency?" Obviously, the Celtics have done extremely well spreading only $12 million around between these guys: Theis was plucked out of Germany years after going undrafted, and his current cap figure is no doubt influenced by a couple years of bad injury luck; Williams is an obvious bargain because he's still on his rookie contract. But I think the Kanter situation is instructive; his value is depressed not because he's taken a great leap forward this year, but simply because he has (extremely) distinct strengths and weaknesses in different areas of the game. That is, a team can derive surplus value even from contracts negotiated in the free (agency) market, provided that they are able to platoon a position with players who balance out each others (vulner)abilities.

Crazy? Possibly. But let's take a look at who's out there in the FA market this summer.

Efficient buckets and rebounds, questionable defense (Kanter)
We've already got this guy on the roster, as far as I'm concerned, and for the right price. I think Bryant's deal looks pretty good even compared to Kanter's, considering the additional floor spacing he offers. Further, I'm positive that it'll compare favorably to whatever Montrezl Harrell comes away with this offseason.

Hyper-athletic rim-running and shot-blocking (Williams)
Unfortunately, there's not a lot of this on the market this summer (except our old pal Javale!). However, it so happens that it's the very calling card of Onyeka Okongwu, who seems to be about as close to a consensus pick for our #9 as this board's going to get. We can hope...

Nerlens Noel probably belongs here as well, though I initially had him in the next group. I've already talked up Harry Giles plenty, even though his rim protection is more theoretical than actual at the moment.

Steady, bruising defense and low-usage efficiency (Theis)
This seems to be the archetype that you're expecting to get starter minutes from, with the other two being a little more situational (in that both their strengths and their vulnerabilities seem more pronounced). It's hard to tell exactly how the market will break, but I would hope that at least one of Aron Baynes, Jakob Poeltl, Kyle O'Quinn, Mason Plumlee, or Tristan Thompson ends up being a relative bargain. (That's my approximate ranking, by the way, but if we come out of the lottery with a center there's no reason to pay the premium that Baynes/Poeltl/Thompson will command for 20-30 minute roles).

Anyway, maybe I'm overreacting to small sample sizes. It's also worth noting that while this strategy can lead to some positive-value signings like Kanter, it can make it difficult to land even somebody like Noel, given that we're budgeting for a 15-20 minute contributor while other teams might feel like they're paying for 25+ a night.

Thoughts? Can this mindset be applied to other positions? I tend to think not, especially for wings (whose most valuable trait in the current meta seems to be versatility), though maybe there could be interesting applications at the PG/SG spots. Alas, probably not for our current squad.



I think Boston speaks more to coaching skill than roster assembly. I fully expect Brad Stevens' would ascend to EC championship contention if he had a dominant rearline anchor type. Of anyone I bet he could puzzle out the best use of a traditional center. Horford's multiposition adaptability fit him well, but if he had a power Big on the roster he would build a system that pivots around that centerpiece and do well with it. In the mean time with whatever he does as always he utilizes his ability to make chicken salad out of chickenshxt. He has a unique perception of the moment and an ability to adjust on the fly that few other coaches can exhibit. Masterful in substitutions and quickslice interpretation of what is happening on the floor to exploit or create a situational mismatch. He is the head coach equivalent of a Chris Paul.

I'm unconvinced that many other coaches would be as good at that game. Sure roster flexibility is key among role players, and the center position has become an afterthought, but with the increased importance of strong rebounding (in my opinion) I think we are seeing a renaissance of Large Ball. There is no Golden State in the playoffs this year. Houston tries the small ball route, but look around the rest of the league to see who has been playing well. LeLakers run with Bron at point guard. AD commonly plays next to JaVale or Dwight. The Bucks have two Lopez Bros next to the freak.

I think there is an opportunity right now to snatch quality Bigs while they are undervalued and the metagame is catching up. The murmurs that players like Jarret Allen or Rudy Gobert may be dangled by their teams to me looks like opportunity for the Next Next. To me the next phase of the metagame involves getting Smart Bigs. Bigs who pass and defend positionally. The next Horford, Marc Gasol, Draymond. Those are the ones who make both your offense and your defense better. The Bill Russell true Pivot player, who can read the defense from the back line and make adjustments to put your versatile perimeter swingmen in position.

But to quote former poster hands11 (RIP) "I been saying this for years".
I think Boston is an example of just how valuable big talented wings/forwards actually are. Heck, while the Raptors have Gasol and Ibaka, they, too lean more on the likes of Siakam, Anunoby and Powell than their Cs and won the title with Kawhi and Green in that same group last season. The Clippers are a juggernaut with Kawhi, George and Morris.

I think the Bucks hurt themselves more for the playoffs than people wanted to admit when they let Brogdon go because he and Middleton were their talented big perimeter guys who got the non-Giannis playoff stuff done and now they're up against a team loaded with big wings and forwards in Butler, Herro, Robinson and Bam and I'm not convinced they have a lot of answers for that.

All over the league, talented big wings and forwards are the playoff difference makers. You don't need 7 footers so much as you need 6'5" or bigger guys who are super strong and mobile. There is room for a single dynamic scoring guard on any team but it's really just a single guy with the Raptors trying to break that a bit with Lowry, who has everything but height. Basically, the archetype is 5 Lebrons, and while nobody can obviously attain that, the Celtics with Tatum and Brown are really solid there, and all this is with Haywars out. It's not about what they're getting from their Cs. It's about what they're getting from their other guys.

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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#44 » by closg00 » Tue Sep 8, 2020 12:33 pm

What about foreign players? Daniel Theis is working out well for Boston @ PF/C and he was an undrafted player
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#45 » by Frichuela » Tue Sep 8, 2020 1:44 pm

I see two scenarios depending on who the Wiz draft:

1) If they get lucky and draft Big O at #9 (as Sam Vecenie and others are forecasting), then the obvious need is a 3&D wing. It is going to be challenging getting someone good for the MLE as Jerami Grant and Jae Crowder are unlikely to be available. Here, I would focus on two targets who are athletic and have already shown good defensive potential: Torrey Craig and Derrick Jones. Their 3-ball is a work in progress but better than other solid defensive options such as Hollis-Jefferson.

2) If they can't get Big O (or Wiseman), then it's likely they draft a wing with 3&D potential (Vassell, Okoro, Nesmith). In this case, as commented by many in this board, Noel should be the priority target.

Both of these scenarios are taking also into account that the Wiz can retain Bertans, at a not too expensive cost (hopefully $12-15mn/year...).

A third scenario would be a trade...A trade such as (Allen+Temple+#19 for Bryant+#9), would get us both a solid and promising rim protector plus a veteran serviceable 3&D wing. At #19, the Wiz could target a replacement for Bryant (Jalen Smith, Tillman), a guard (Terry) or a wing (S Bay -if available-, Bane, Green).
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#46 » by Ruzious » Tue Sep 8, 2020 2:25 pm

Frichuela wrote:I see two scenarios depending on who the Wiz draft:

1) If they get lucky and draft Big O at #9 (as Sam Vecenie and others are forecasting), then the obvious need is a 3&D wing. It is going to be challenging getting someone good for the MLE as Jerami Grant and Jae Crowder are unlikely to be available. Here, I would focus on two targets who are athletic and have already shown good defensive potential: Torrey Craig and Derrick Jones. Their 3-ball is a work in progress but better than other solid defensive options such as Hollis-Jefferson.

2) If they can't get Big O (or Wiseman), then it's likely they draft a wing with 3&D potential (Vassell, Okoro, Nesmith). In this case, as commented by many in this board, Noel should be the priority target.

Both of these scenarios are taking also into account that the Wiz can retain Bertans, at a not too expensive cost (hopefully $12-15mn/year...).

A third scenario would be a trade...A trade such as (Allen+Temple+#19 for Bryant+#9), would get us both a solid and promising rim protector plus a veteran serviceable 3&D wing. At #19, the Wiz could target a replacement for Bryant (Jalen Smith, Tillman), a guard (Terry) or a wing (S Bay -if available-, Bane, Green).

I agree with a lot of your logic there. And Derrick Jones Jr is a very interesting target. If he develops a 3 point shot, he could be a great pickup. He really improved his FT shooting, so maybe there's hope for his 3 point shot. Just 22 - a year older than Troy Brown Jr. Between the 2 of them, gotta figure 1 will break out. He's barely played in the playoffs, so he's very likely looking to leave. Gotta like a young player who plays defense first, rebounds, and is from a winning environment.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#47 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:57 pm

Jones is 2 1/2 years older than Troy Brown, but anyway it seems pretty certain that Miami will keep him.

From the trade thread:
pcbothwel wrote:
payitforward wrote:1. $103m for 11 including Pasecniks @$1.5m -- will we pick up his option?
2. Using both exceptions adds $12.9m > $116m/13 players
3. #9 pick + #37 pick = $5.5m > $121.5m for 15 w/o Bertans. But we want to keep Bertans.
4. Back out BAE @ $3.6m > $118m for 14 w/o Bertans.
5. Bertans @ $14m, & we slide in under the tax.
...?

Yes. My calcs show us being slightly above the tax if we use/sign both picks, use both exceptions, and sign Bertans for 15M/year (Starting salary is 14M).
I think we can save a bit by:
1) Using Ish & Robinson in trade to lower cost
2) Using less than full MLE (i.e. 3/20M contract)
3) Dont use BAE...


I would only use the MLE on a guy who is 26 or younger & whom we want to sign long term. Noel would be perfect, but it's really hard to imagine that OKC won't keep him. Their salary structure is totally under control, & they're the ones who gave him a real chance.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#48 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:03 pm

Here are all the UFA guards: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/ufa/guard/

Sort by age, & there are only @ a dozen who are 26 or younger. IMO, an excellent target who will be available cheap is Glenn Robinson III. He is an extremely under-rated player, IMO. Tie him up for 3 years, our option year 2, at a salary that makes him tradable.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#49 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:10 pm

Here are all the UFA PFs: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/ufa/power-forward/

Sort by age: to me at least, only Harry Giles & Christian Wood are of any interest. Be interesting to see what Detroit does with Wood & how big a payday he gets. Would they, perhaps, be interested in a sign-and-trade? For...?
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#50 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:15 pm

UFA Centers: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/ufa/center/
Sort by age: looks like Noel or no one to me...?
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#51 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:32 pm

Given that we won't get Noel, I'd be perfectly content if we dropped Pasecniks (taking us down to 10), signed Garrison Mathews to the regular roster, came away from the draft with 3 good prospects, & re-signed Bertans (getting us to 15). Then I'd ink my guys Nathan Knight & Skylar Mays to 2-way contracts.

IMO, it makes no sense to sign 2d-half-of-career veterans for minor, short-terms improvements that delay player development of our young guys & dilute the rebuilding process.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#52 » by Ruzious » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:41 pm

payitforward wrote:Jones is 2 1/2 years older than Troy Brown, but anyway it seems pretty certain that Miami will keep him.

From the trade thread:
pcbothwel wrote:
payitforward wrote:1. $103m for 11 including Pasecniks @$1.5m -- will we pick up his option?
2. Using both exceptions adds $12.9m > $116m/13 players
3. #9 pick + #37 pick = $5.5m > $121.5m for 15 w/o Bertans. But we want to keep Bertans.
4. Back out BAE @ $3.6m > $118m for 14 w/o Bertans.
5. Bertans @ $14m, & we slide in under the tax.
...?

Yes. My calcs show us being slightly above the tax if we use/sign both picks, use both exceptions, and sign Bertans for 15M/year (Starting salary is 14M).
I think we can save a bit by:
1) Using Ish & Robinson in trade to lower cost
2) Using less than full MLE (i.e. 3/20M contract)
3) Dont use BAE...


I would only use the MLE on a guy who is 26 or younger & whom we want to sign long term. Noel would be perfect, but it's really hard to imagine that OKC won't keep him. Their salary structure is totally under control, & they're the ones who gave him a real chance.

First, no it doesn't seem at all certain that Miami will keep Jones - since he's hardly played at all in the playoffs. Second, what does Brown being younger have to do with it?

Re Noel, it's his choice - not OKC's. He's stuck as a clear backup there, so I'd think he'd want to go to a place where he could at least challenge to be the starter. I do not expect him to return to OKC.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#53 » by pcbothwel » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:42 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:Jones is 2 1/2 years older than Troy Brown, but anyway it seems pretty certain that Miami will keep him.

From the trade thread:
pcbothwel wrote:Yes. My calcs show us being slightly above the tax if we use/sign both picks, use both exceptions, and sign Bertans for 15M/year (Starting salary is 14M).
I think we can save a bit by:
1) Using Ish & Robinson in trade to lower cost
2) Using less than full MLE (i.e. 3/20M contract)
3) Dont use BAE...


I would only use the MLE on a guy who is 26 or younger & whom we want to sign long term. Noel would be perfect, but it's really hard to imagine that OKC won't keep him. Their salary structure is totally under control, & they're the ones who gave him a real chance.

First, no it doesn't seem at all certain that Miami will keep Jones - since he's hardly played at all in the playoffs. Second, what does Brown being younger have to do with it?

Re Noel, it's his choice - not OKC's. He's stuck as a clear backup there, so I'd think he'd want to go to a place where he could at least challenge to be the starter. I do not expect him to return to OKC.


Exactly. Why would he want to live in Oklahoma, as a backup, on a rebuilding team?
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#54 » by Ruzious » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:44 pm

payitforward wrote:UFA Centers: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/ufa/center/
Sort by age: looks like Noel or no one to me...?

Now that, i'll agree with. Noel is the only free agent veteran center that the Wiz should be looking at.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#55 » by pcbothwel » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:09 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:UFA Centers: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/ufa/center/
Sort by age: looks like Noel or no one to me...?

Now that, i'll agree with. Noel is the only free agent veteran center that the Wiz should be looking at.


Huh? Derrick Favors and Willie-Cauley Stein would also be fantastic compliments at the 5 spot to Bryant.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#56 » by Ruzious » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:14 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:UFA Centers: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/ufa/center/
Sort by age: looks like Noel or no one to me...?

Now that, i'll agree with. Noel is the only free agent veteran center that the Wiz should be looking at.


Huh? Derrick Favors and Willie-Cauley Stein would also be fantastic compliments at the 5 spot to Bryant.

Neither of them are on the list from Pif's link - though I wouldn't be crazy about signing either one of them, tbh.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#57 » by DCZards » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:42 pm

Tristan Thompson? He'd bring rebounding and interior toughness, which the Zards desperately need, and a championship pedigree.

I know Tristan is 29 and in the second half of his career, but given that the Zards are trying to win with two other guys in the second half of their careers (Wall & Beal), TT might be someone they'd take a serious look at it...for the right price.

Of course, that also would depend on whether or not we draft a young big--like Okongwu or Achiuwa.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#58 » by pcbothwel » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:44 pm

Ruzious wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Now that, i'll agree with. Noel is the only free agent veteran center that the Wiz should be looking at.


Huh? Derrick Favors and Willie-Cauley Stein would also be fantastic compliments at the 5 spot to Bryant.

Neither of them are on the list from Pif's link - though I wouldn't be crazy about signing either one of them, tbh.


Not sure why. WCS is the same age, and while he doesnt have quite the insane BLK/STL rates that Noel has, he grades out as a slightly better defender overall and a better rebounder. Offensively, WCS was clearly the better player as he has a broader skill set as a scorer and had a 2:1 AST:TOV ratio, which is unheard of for a big man. After his trade to Dallas, he shot less from outside 10 feet (Similar to Noel) and put up ridiculous numbers.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#59 » by pcbothwel » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:47 pm

DCZards wrote:Tristan Thompson? He'd bring rebounding and interior toughness, which the Zards desperately need, and a championship pedigree.

I know Tristan is 29 and in the second half of his career, but given that the Zards are trying to win with two other guys in the second half of their careers (Wall & Beal), TT might be someone they'd take a serious look at it...for the right price.

Of course, that also would depend on whether or not we draft a young big--like Okungwu or Achiuwa.



Thats the key. For 15-20 MPG, Noel, Favors, and WCS are much better players and Noel/WCS will probably be cheaper. TT is far down on my list and wouldnt be interested above 2-3M given the NBA landscape in both style and finances.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#60 » by Ruzious » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:27 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
Huh? Derrick Favors and Willie-Cauley Stein would also be fantastic compliments at the 5 spot to Bryant.

Neither of them are on the list from Pif's link - though I wouldn't be crazy about signing either one of them, tbh.


Not sure why. WCS is the same age, and while he doesnt have quite the insane BLK/STL rates that Noel has, he grades out as a slightly better defender overall and a better rebounder. Offensively, WCS was clearly the better player as he has a broader skill set as a scorer and had a 2:1 AST:TOV ratio, which is unheard of for a big man. After his trade to Dallas, he shot less from outside 10 feet (Similar to Noel) and put up ridiculous numbers.

WCS has nice tools, but I've never been impressed with him - he seems like a negative energy big who'll make some good plays and then play lazy. And as far as rebounding, Noel's gotten 10.1 per 36 for his career while WCS has 9.6 - they seem roughly the same. Noel took a big step up with his scoring efficiency this season - making him a significantly better all-around player, imo.
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