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Potential Free Agent Signings

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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#61 » by Ruzious » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:31 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
DCZards wrote:Tristan Thompson? He'd bring rebounding and interior toughness, which the Zards desperately need, and a championship pedigree.

I know Tristan is 29 and in the second half of his career, but given that the Zards are trying to win with two other guys in the second half of their careers (Wall & Beal), TT might be someone they'd take a serious look at it...for the right price.

Of course, that also would depend on whether or not we draft a young big--like Okungwu or Achiuwa.



Thats the key. For 15-20 MPG, Noel, Favors, and WCS are much better players and Noel/WCS will probably be cheaper. TT is far down on my list and wouldnt be interested above 2-3M given the NBA landscape in both style and finances.

Right, Thompson's used to getting 16, 17, 18 mil a year. Even ignoring age, he'll likely cost a lot more and not be as good as Noel.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#62 » by pcbothwel » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:55 pm

Ruzious wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Neither of them are on the list from Pif's link - though I wouldn't be crazy about signing either one of them, tbh.


Not sure why. WCS is the same age, and while he doesnt have quite the insane BLK/STL rates that Noel has, he grades out as a slightly better defender overall and a better rebounder. Offensively, WCS was clearly the better player as he has a broader skill set as a scorer and had a 2:1 AST:TOV ratio, which is unheard of for a big man. After his trade to Dallas, he shot less from outside 10 feet (Similar to Noel) and put up ridiculous numbers.

WCS has nice tools, but I've never been impressed with him - he seems like a negative energy big who'll make some good plays and then play lazy. And as far as rebounding, Noel's gotten 10.1 per 36 for his career while WCS has 9.6 - they seem roughly the same. Noel took a big step up with his scoring efficiency this season - making him a significantly better all-around player, imo.


WCS played some PF early in his career which skewed his efficiency and rebounding numbers.

Scoring: Both players shoot 71% from <3ft and 36% from 3-10 feet. It just so happens that Noel shoots more from within 10 feet. So yes, his TS is higher because of the shots he takes, not his ability to make them. The last two years WCS has strictly played Center and had a TS of 57%, same as Noels career average. So, I see no real difference in that regard.

Rebounding: I think per possession or RBD% numbers are far more accurate than per36 due to pace. Again, now that WCS has settled in closer to the basket, it’s a better comparison. Per 100 pos, Noel has averaged 13.8 rebounds (15.3%) and WCS over the last two year is at 14.1 (15.7%).

So WCS is an equal or better scorer, rebounder, facilitator, and stout defender… while Noel is a bit more disruptive defensively and runs the court better.
Now, I’ve been on the Noel bandwagon as well and I don’t disagree about some of the reservations about WCS…but if it’s a choice between WCS for 3M (2/6M) and Noel at 7M (3/21M), then i don’t even see it as a discussion.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#63 » by nate33 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:22 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
Not sure why. WCS is the same age, and while he doesnt have quite the insane BLK/STL rates that Noel has, he grades out as a slightly better defender overall and a better rebounder. Offensively, WCS was clearly the better player as he has a broader skill set as a scorer and had a 2:1 AST:TOV ratio, which is unheard of for a big man. After his trade to Dallas, he shot less from outside 10 feet (Similar to Noel) and put up ridiculous numbers.

WCS has nice tools, but I've never been impressed with him - he seems like a negative energy big who'll make some good plays and then play lazy. And as far as rebounding, Noel's gotten 10.1 per 36 for his career while WCS has 9.6 - they seem roughly the same. Noel took a big step up with his scoring efficiency this season - making him a significantly better all-around player, imo.


WCS played some PF early in his career which skewed his efficiency and rebounding numbers.

Scoring: Both players shoot 71% from <3ft and 36% from 3-10 feet. It just so happens that Noel shoots more from within 10 feet. So yes, his TS is higher because of the shots he takes, not his ability to make them. The last two years WCS has strictly played Center and had a TS of 57%, same as Noels career average. So, I see no real difference in that regard.

Rebounding: I think per possession or RBD% numbers are far more accurate than per36 due to pace. Again, now that WCS has settled in closer to the basket, it’s a better comparison. Per 100 pos, Noel has averaged 13.8 rebounds (15.3%) and WCS over the last two year is at 14.1 (15.7%).

So WCS is an equal or better scorer, rebounder, facilitator, and stout defender… while Noel is a bit more disruptive defensively and runs the court better.
Now, I’ve been on the Noel bandwagon as well and I don’t disagree about some of the reservations about WCS…but if it’s a choice between WCS for 3M (2/6M) and Noel at 7M (3/21M), then i don’t even see it as a discussion.

I think you make a compelling argument for WCS. I like Noel a bit better, but if he is unavailable, I think WCS could still be a useful addition.

One big advantage WCS has over Noel is that he isn't so injury prone. Noel simply can't log heavy minutes. If Bryant went down, I'd be concerned about Noel playing 32 minutes a night. WCS could do it.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#64 » by nate33 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:28 pm

I caught a little of the Dunc'd On Podcast with Nate Duncan and Danny Leroux and they made the point that there will be very few teams with cap flexibility this summer. It's not just a lack of teams with max cap room, it's that a lot of teams won't even have the full MLE available, they'll have just the Room MLE, which is about half as big. There's also the fact that so many teams are trying to keep their books clean for 2021 so they will be unwilling to give out long term deals.

The end result is that there may be some free agency bargains in the $5-10M range. Guys that would normally go for the full $10M MLE may not have many suitors other than teams offering the $5M Room Minimum.

Since the Wizards are so bereft of talent, it may make sense to just go after the best bargain available, regardless of position.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#65 » by pcbothwel » Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:31 pm

nate33 wrote:I caught a little of the Dunc'd On Podcast with Nate Duncan and Danny Leroux and they made the point that there will be very few teams with cap flexibility this summer. It's not just a lack of teams with max cap room, it's that a lot of teams won't even have the full MLE available, they'll have just the Room MLE, which is about half as big. There's also the fact that so many teams are trying to keep their books clean for 2021 so they will be unwilling to give out long term deals.

The end result is that there may be some free agency bargains in the $5-10M range. Guys that would normally go for the full $10M MLE may not have many suitors other than teams offering the $5M Room Minimum.

Since the Wizards are so bereft of talent, it may make sense to just go after the best bargain available, regardless of position.


Exactly... but also why I'd like to find our competant backup Center that can defend with the BAE... this would give us the Full MLE for a random find... Millsap?
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#66 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:22 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:Jones is 2 1/2 years older than Troy Brown, but anyway it seems pretty certain that Miami will keep him....

First, no it doesn't seem at all certain that Miami will keep Jones - since he's hardly played at all in the playoffs. Second, what does Brown being younger have to do with it? ...

I thought you had commented that Jones was "only 1 year older than Brown" -- probably got that wrong.... No big deal in any case. & I got the idea somewhere that the Miami FO really likes Jones. Again... maybe I'm mistaken.

Ruzious wrote:...Re Noel, it's his choice - not OKC's. He's stuck as a clear backup there, so I'd think he'd want to go to a place where he could at least challenge to be the starter. I do not expect him to return to OKC.

Great -- hope we can sign him. OTOH, Adams is expiring. If the $$ is the same, I could easily see him staying where they gave him a chance. In any case, he would be a terrific get for us, no doubt about it!
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#67 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:34 pm

Ruzious wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Now that, i'll agree with. Noel is the only free agent veteran center that the Wiz should be looking at.

Huh? Derrick Favors and Willie-Cauley Stein would also be fantastic compliments at the 5 spot to Bryant.

Neither of them are on the list from Pif's link - though I wouldn't be crazy about signing either one of them, tbh.

My list was UFAs, but "restricted" doesn't mean their current team will be able to keep them or want to for that matter.

Favors is older than I would want, though he is certainly still a productive player. But I'm not adding pieces to contend now or in 2021-22. YMMV, but I see virtually no chance of doing that.

This is a rebuilding team, a team that is remaking itself radically, that has only 2 players who were on the roster 2 years ago. We are not patching in "pieces," in the old Ernie vernacular.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#68 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:58 pm

DCZards wrote:Tristan Thompson? He'd bring rebounding and interior toughness, which the Zards desperately need, and a championship pedigree.

I know Tristan is 29 and in the second half of his career, but given that the Zards are trying to win with two other guys in the second half of their careers (Wall & Beal), TT might be someone they'd take a serious look at it...for the right price.

Of course, that also would depend on whether or not we draft a young big--like Okongwu or Achiuwa.

In a way, it might make more sense to look at Thompson (as you say, "for the right price") if we do draft one of those guys (or Jalen Smith). Give them more breathing room to develop.

&, of course we want to win w/ Wall/Beal -- I sure hope we don't want to lose! :)

But... want to win what? & when? We are a 30-win team (assuming 82 games); we aren't contending any time soon.

No one wants to bump along at the bottom of the league the way we did for many years. But, if we trade a longer-term future to become "respectable," aren't we just repeating the error we made so many years ago by trading ourselves up to a middle-of-the-road team with no prospects to contend?

Beal just turned 27. He has many years of high-level play in front of him. It's a little more problematic in Wall's case, yet he's only played 3000 minutes overall in the last 3 years, so maybe he still has more years than we might think of his best play.

Above all, if in 3 years those two guys aren't the absolute & essential center of the Washington Wizards, that's a good thing not a bad one! It means we've developed one or more outstanding players out of our youth brigade.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#69 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:09 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
Huh? Derrick Favors and Willie-Cauley Stein would also be fantastic compliments at the 5 spot to Bryant.

Neither of them are on the list from Pif's link - though I wouldn't be crazy about signing either one of them, tbh.


Not sure why. WCS is the same age, and while he doesnt have quite the insane BLK/STL rates that Noel has, he grades out as a slightly better defender overall and a better rebounder. Offensively, WCS was clearly the better player as he has a broader skill set as a scorer and had a 2:1 AST:TOV ratio, which is unheard of for a big man. After his trade to Dallas, he shot less from outside 10 feet (Similar to Noel) and put up ridiculous numbers.

WC-S played 157 minute for Dallas -- yes, he did put up ridiculous numbers, but I would leave them altogether out of my assessment.
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Re: Potential Free Agent Signings 

Post#70 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:18 pm

nate33 wrote:I caught a little of the Dunc'd On Podcast with Nate Duncan and Danny Leroux and they made the point that there will be very few teams with cap flexibility this summer. It's not just a lack of teams with max cap room, it's that a lot of teams won't even have the full MLE available, they'll have just the Room MLE, which is about half as big. There's also the fact that so many teams are trying to keep their books clean for 2021 so they will be unwilling to give out long term deals.

The end result is that there may be some free agency bargains in the $5-10M range. Guys that would normally go for the full $10M MLE may not have many suitors other than teams offering the $5M Room Minimum.

Since the Wizards are so bereft of talent, it may make sense to just go after the best bargain available, regardless of position.

This makes great sense -- above all if we're talking about young players. Not only do they fit our needs better, but they bring with him a longer arc of tradability.

This matters, because we are planning to become a significantly better team. I.e. a team with a lot of really good players we've acquired when they were young & cheap to get. The more we do that, the more tradability becomes a strength of the team's roster -- allowing us to tailor for positional need as we become competitive and even a contender.

The hallmark of an Ernie team was the number of players acquired who could not be moved for anything near what they cost us. That's fatal to overall improvement.
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