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pcbothwel wrote:

DCZards wrote:Tristan Thompson? He'd bring rebounding and interior toughness, which the Zards desperately need, and a championship pedigree.

I know Tristan is 29 and in the second half of his career, but given that the Zards are trying to win with two other guys in the second half of their careers (Wall & Beal), TT might be someone they'd take a serious look at it...for the right price.

Of course, that also would depend on whether or not we draft a young big--like Okungwu or Achiuwa.

Thats the key. For 15-20 MPG, Noel, Favors, and WCS are much better players and Noel/WCS will probably be cheaper. TT is far down on my list and wouldnt be interested above 2-3M given the NBA landscape in both style and finances.

Right, Thompson's used to getting 16, 17, 18 mil a year. Even ignoring age, he'll likely cost a lot more and not be as good as Noel.

Ruzious wrote:

pcbothwel wrote:

Ruzious wrote:Neither of them are on the list from Pif's link - though I wouldn't be crazy about signing either one of them, tbh.

Not sure why. WCS is the same age, and while he doesnt have quite the insane BLK/STL rates that Noel has, he grades out as a slightly better defender overall and a better rebounder. Offensively, WCS was clearly the better player as he has a broader skill set as a scorer and had a 2:1 AST:TOV ratio, which is unheard of for a big man. After his trade to Dallas, he shot less from outside 10 feet (Similar to Noel) and put up ridiculous numbers.

WCS has nice tools, but I've never been impressed with him - he seems like a negative energy big who'll make some good plays and then play lazy. And as far as rebounding, Noel's gotten 10.1 per 36 for his career while WCS has 9.6 - they seem roughly the same. Noel took a big step up with his scoring efficiency this season - making him a significantly better all-around player, imo.

WCS played some PF early in his career which skewed his efficiency and rebounding numbers.

Scoring: Both players shoot 71% from <3ft and 36% from 3-10 feet. It just so happens that Noel shoots more from within 10 feet. So yes, his TS is higher because of the shots he takes, not his ability to make them. The last two years WCS has strictly played Center and had a TS of 57%, same as Noels career average. So, I see no real difference in that regard.

Rebounding: I think per possession or RBD% numbers are far more accurate than per36 due to pace. Again, now that WCS has settled in closer to the basket, it’s a better comparison. Per 100 pos, Noel has averaged 13.8 rebounds (15.3%) and WCS over the last two year is at 14.1 (15.7%).

So WCS is an equal or better scorer, rebounder, facilitator, and stout defender… while Noel is a bit more disruptive defensively and runs the court better.
Now, I’ve been on the Noel bandwagon as well and I don’t disagree about some of the reservations about WCS…but if it’s a choice between WCS for 3M (2/6M) and Noel at 7M (3/21M), then i don’t even see it as a discussion.

pcbothwel wrote:

Ruzious wrote:

pcbothwel wrote:
Not sure why. WCS is the same age, and while he doesnt have quite the insane BLK/STL rates that Noel has, he grades out as a slightly better defender overall and a better rebounder. Offensively, WCS was clearly the better player as he has a broader skill set as a scorer and had a 2:1 AST:TOV ratio, which is unheard of for a big man. After his trade to Dallas, he shot less from outside 10 feet (Similar to Noel) and put up ridiculous numbers.

WCS has nice tools, but I've never been impressed with him - he seems like a negative energy big who'll make some good plays and then play lazy. And as far as rebounding, Noel's gotten 10.1 per 36 for his career while WCS has 9.6 - they seem roughly the same. Noel took a big step up with his scoring efficiency this season - making him a significantly better all-around player, imo.

WCS played some PF early in his career which skewed his efficiency and rebounding numbers.

Scoring: Both players shoot 71% from <3ft and 36% from 3-10 feet. It just so happens that Noel shoots more from within 10 feet. So yes, his TS is higher because of the shots he takes, not his ability to make them. The last two years WCS has strictly played Center and had a TS of 57%, same as Noels career average. So, I see no real difference in that regard.

Rebounding: I think per possession or RBD% numbers are far more accurate than per36 due to pace. Again, now that WCS has settled in closer to the basket, it’s a better comparison. Per 100 pos, Noel has averaged 13.8 rebounds (15.3%) and WCS over the last two year is at 14.1 (15.7%).

So WCS is an equal or better scorer, rebounder, facilitator, and stout defender… while Noel is a bit more disruptive defensively and runs the court better.
Now, I’ve been on the Noel bandwagon as well and I don’t disagree about some of the reservations about WCS…but if it’s a choice between WCS for 3M (2/6M) and Noel at 7M (3/21M), then i don’t even see it as a discussion.

I think you make a compelling argument for WCS. I like Noel a bit better, but if he is unavailable, I think WCS could still be a useful addition.

One big advantage WCS has over Noel is that he isn't so injury prone. Noel simply can't log heavy minutes. If Bryant went down, I'd be concerned about Noel playing 32 minutes a night. WCS could do it.

I caught a little of the Dunc'd On Podcast with Nate Duncan and Danny Leroux and they made the point that there will be very few teams with cap flexibility this summer. It's not just a lack of teams with max cap room, it's that a lot of teams won't even have the full MLE available, they'll have just the Room MLE, which is about half as big. There's also the fact that so many teams are trying to keep their books clean for 2021 so they will be unwilling to give out long term deals.

The end result is that there may be some free agency bargains in the $5-10M range. Guys that would normally go for the full $10M MLE may not have many suitors other than teams offering the $5M Room Minimum.

Since the Wizards are so bereft of talent, it may make sense to just go after the best bargain available, regardless of position.

nate33 wrote:I caught a little of the Dunc'd On Podcast with Nate Duncan and Danny Leroux and they made the point that there will be very few teams with cap flexibility this summer. It's not just a lack of teams with max cap room, it's that a lot of teams won't even have the full MLE available, they'll have just the Room MLE, which is about half as big. There's also the fact that so many teams are trying to keep their books clean for 2021 so they will be unwilling to give out long term deals.

The end result is that there may be some free agency bargains in the $5-10M range. Guys that would normally go for the full $10M MLE may not have many suitors other than teams offering the $5M Room Minimum.

Since the Wizards are so bereft of talent, it may make sense to just go after the best bargain available, regardless of position.

Exactly... but also why I'd like to find our competant backup Center that can defend with the BAE... this would give us the Full MLE for a random find... Millsap?

Ruzious wrote:

payitforward wrote:Jones is 2 1/2 years older than Troy Brown, but anyway it seems pretty certain that Miami will keep him....

First, no it doesn't seem at all certain that Miami will keep Jones - since he's hardly played at all in the playoffs. Second, what does Brown being younger have to do with it? ...

I thought you had commented that Jones was "only 1 year older than Brown" -- probably got that wrong.... No big deal in any case. & I got the idea somewhere that the Miami FO really likes Jones. Again... maybe I'm mistaken.

Ruzious wrote:...Re Noel, it's his choice - not OKC's. He's stuck as a clear backup there, so I'd think he'd want to go to a place where he could at least challenge to be the starter. I do not expect him to return to OKC.

Great -- hope we can sign him. OTOH, Adams is expiring. If the $$ is the same, I could easily see him staying where they gave him a chance. In any case, he would be a terrific get for us, no doubt about it!

Ruzious wrote:

pcbothwel wrote:

Ruzious wrote:Now that, i'll agree with. Noel is the only free agent veteran center that the Wiz should be looking at.

Huh? Derrick Favors and Willie-Cauley Stein would also be fantastic compliments at the 5 spot to Bryant.

Neither of them are on the list from Pif's link - though I wouldn't be crazy about signing either one of them, tbh.

My list was UFAs, but "restricted" doesn't mean their current team will be able to keep them or want to for that matter.

Favors is older than I would want, though he is certainly still a productive player. But I'm not adding pieces to contend now or in 2021-22. YMMV, but I see virtually no chance of doing that.

This is a rebuilding team, a team that is remaking itself radically, that has only 2 players who were on the roster 2 years ago. We are not patching in "pieces," in the old Ernie vernacular.

DCZards wrote:Tristan Thompson? He'd bring rebounding and interior toughness, which the Zards desperately need, and a championship pedigree.

I know Tristan is 29 and in the second half of his career, but given that the Zards are trying to win with two other guys in the second half of their careers (Wall & Beal), TT might be someone they'd take a serious look at it...for the right price.

Of course, that also would depend on whether or not we draft a young big--like Okongwu or Achiuwa.

In a way, it might make more sense to look at Thompson (as you say, "for the right price") if we do draft one of those guys (or Jalen Smith). Give them more breathing room to develop.

&, of course we want to win w/ Wall/Beal -- I sure hope we don't want to lose!

But... want to win what? & when? We are a 30-win team (assuming 82 games); we aren't contending any time soon.

No one wants to bump along at the bottom of the league the way we did for many years. But, if we trade a longer-term future to become "respectable," aren't we just repeating the error we made so many years ago by trading ourselves up to a middle-of-the-road team with no prospects to contend?

Beal just turned 27. He has many years of high-level play in front of him. It's a little more problematic in Wall's case, yet he's only played 3000 minutes overall in the last 3 years, so maybe he still has more years than we might think of his best play.

Above all, if in 3 years those two guys aren't the absolute & essential center of the Washington Wizards, that's a good thing not a bad one! It means we've developed one or more outstanding players out of our youth brigade.

pcbothwel wrote:

Ruzious wrote:

pcbothwel wrote:
Huh? Derrick Favors and Willie-Cauley Stein would also be fantastic compliments at the 5 spot to Bryant.

Neither of them are on the list from Pif's link - though I wouldn't be crazy about signing either one of them, tbh.

Not sure why. WCS is the same age, and while he doesnt have quite the insane BLK/STL rates that Noel has, he grades out as a slightly better defender overall and a better rebounder. Offensively, WCS was clearly the better player as he has a broader skill set as a scorer and had a 2:1 AST:TOV ratio, which is unheard of for a big man. After his trade to Dallas, he shot less from outside 10 feet (Similar to Noel) and put up ridiculous numbers.

WC-S played 157 minute for Dallas -- yes, he did put up ridiculous numbers, but I would leave them altogether out of my assessment.

nate33 wrote:I caught a little of the Dunc'd On Podcast with Nate Duncan and Danny Leroux and they made the point that there will be very few teams with cap flexibility this summer. It's not just a lack of teams with max cap room, it's that a lot of teams won't even have the full MLE available, they'll have just the Room MLE, which is about half as big. There's also the fact that so many teams are trying to keep their books clean for 2021 so they will be unwilling to give out long term deals.

The end result is that there may be some free agency bargains in the $5-10M range. Guys that would normally go for the full $10M MLE may not have many suitors other than teams offering the $5M Room Minimum.

Since the Wizards are so bereft of talent, it may make sense to just go after the best bargain available, regardless of position.

This makes great sense -- above all if we're talking about young players. Not only do they fit our needs better, but they bring with him a longer arc of tradability.

This matters, because we are planning to become a significantly better team. I.e. a team with a lot of really good players we've acquired when they were young & cheap to get. The more we do that, the more tradability becomes a strength of the team's roster -- allowing us to tailor for positional need as we become competitive and even a contender.

The hallmark of an Ernie team was the number of players acquired who could not be moved for anything near what they cost us. That's fatal to overall improvement.

Depending on draft and free agency, I actually think this year there is a better than even chance of DeMarcus Cousins landing here. I know DMC and Unibrow are good friends, and there is a chance he re-inks there. Danny Green advocates that he pick up a ring with LA, and he may want his redemption on a big stage. But Wall has been pushing for a reunion for a long time, and has himself been treated well by the organization while he rehabbed. I'm not saying this is what I personally want, I'm just saying I can see it happening.

doclinkin wrote:Depending on draft and free agency, I actually think this year there is a better than even chance of DeMarcus Cousins landing here. I know DMC and Unibrow are good friends, and there is a chance he re-inks there. Danny Green advocates that he pick up a ring with LA, and he may want his redemption on a big stage. But Wall has been pushing for a reunion for a long time, and has himself been treated well by the organization while he rehabbed. I'm not saying this is what I personally want, I'm just saying I can see it happening.

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I'd make a move for him contingent on where his mind is at with respect to his role.

If his mindset is that he wants minutes, and wants to rehabilitate himself as a core guy, I could see there being potential for some locker room issues.

Yeah the part of DMC's game that has always bugged me is the fact that he thinks he is Nikola Jokic, but is only okay at the role. He is dominant when he does less, but here it sounds like he wants to do even more of the things he does less well. He seems to think of himself as a giant Magic Johnson with range to the deep three, but ends up taking way too many inefficient jumpers and dominating the ball when he touches it, stalling the offense. Fast breaks become 1 on 4's when he rumbles up court in transition and the defense passes him to set up. And in the half court instead of being in position to rebound putbacks in the paint where he is dominant, he is orbiting around the arc waiting for a kick out pass. A pick and pop ranged Big is a great weapon when it develops in a team scheme, but posting your Big outside as a dedicated perimeter player instead weakens the rest of the team. Opponents will happily trade a DMC three point catapult over him one foot in the paint shoving a defender aside with a bump from his backside.

doclinkin wrote:Yeah the part of DMC's game that has always bugged me is the fact that he thinks he is Nikola Jokic, but is only okay at the role. He is dominant when he does less, but here it sounds like he wants to do even more of the things he does less well. He seems to think of himself as a giant Magic Johnson with range to the deep three, but ends up taking way too many inefficient jumpers and dominating the ball when he touches it, stalling the offense. Fast breaks become 1 on 4's when he rumbles up court in transition and the defense passes him to set up. And in the half court instead of being in position to rebound putbacks in the paint where he is dominant, he is orbiting around the arc waiting for a kick out pass. A pick and pop ranged Big is a great weapon when it develops in a team scheme, but posting your Big outside as a dedicated perimeter player instead weakens the rest of the team. Opponents will happily trade a DMC three point catapult over him one foot in the paint shoving a defender aside with a bump from his backside.

Cosign.

Cousins never seemed to understand that the number one role of a center is to protect the paint defensively. If he can't do that, then he will never be a plus player, period. If Wall could convince him to do that, then maybe I'd be interested. For now, I'm highly skeptical.

It's nice that Cousins has more guard skills than most centers in the league, but we don't need our center to have guard skills. We have actual guards for that. Two really good ones, as a matter of fact.

He should replace Javale in LA. He needs a place where he can be carried a bit and not feel he has to push it. This is not that place.

Assuming we overpay to sign Davis, will we really have any money to make a move in free agency? If we do what would be a position of need?

prime1time wrote:Assuming we overpay to sign Davis, will we really have any money to make a move in free agency? If we do what would be a position of need?

Our payroll is at $103M. Add a first and a 2nd rounder and it's $108M. Bertans at $14M gets us to $122M. The luxtax is $132M.

We have room for the next 2 years to add an MLE-ish salary, but we have to keep in mind that everything gets upended in summer 2022 when Beal gets a new contract and Brown is up for a new deal. (Bonga, if he is kept next year, he will probably cost a bit more as well.)

If we're all alive in 20 years, we're still going to be begging for Ed Davis at 51, Christian Wood II, the nephew of Nerlens Noel, Cousins at 400 pounds or whatever mediocre big is available.

Why not just buy a pick to grab Azubuike? As far as bumps from the backside go, he'd send Cousins flying....

Azubuike's career FG% at Kansas is .746. Why do we need Grandpa Cousins?

Same d@mn thing every off-season.... Next we'll hear from someone who wants to sign Melo.

payitforward wrote:Why not just buy a pick to grab Azubuike? As far as bumps from the backside go, he'd send Cousins flying....

Azubuike's career FG% at Kansas is .746. Why do we need Grandpa Cousins?

Same d@mn thing every off-season.... Next we'll hear from someone who wants to sign Melo.

At this point, Cousins likely = Andray Blatche, and we had the misfortune of seeing Blatche get booed off the floor here - all the way to China. Maybe... if he's somehow under 240 lbs and can move much better than he did at GS, I'd consider him as a backup center.
Otherwise, hard pass.