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Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX

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Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#1 » by montestewart » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:21 am

Continued from here
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#2 » by pcbothwel » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:02 pm

100proof wrote:100 mill salary.
115 mill cap.
You wont get mle unles you are already over 115.


Im not sure what you are not picking up about this.
1) Salary: We are at 103M, not 100M. And that is for 11 player and the Min cap hold. And the cap is not 115M, that was the original projection before COVID/bubble ball. It is now assumed a flat rate of 109M, maybe 110M for this year.

2) MLE: Im well aware of the MLE and its rules. Bertans Cap hold/salary + 9th pick puts at 121M. Which is about 11-12M over the cap, but under the Luxury Tax. We will therefore be able to use the Full MLE & BAE, along with our 2nd round pick to fill out the roster with 15 players and be just under the Lux tax.

So again, we get older, more expensive, less athletic, more top heavy, more injury prone... all while not being better. Pass.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#3 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:56 pm

Marginally related...

1. $103m for 11 including Pasecniks @$1.5m -- will we pick up his option?
2. Using both exceptions adds $12.9m > $116m/13 players
3. #9 pick + #37 pick = $5.5m > $121.5m for 15 w/o Bertans. But we want to keep Bertans.
4. Back out BAE @ $3.6m > $118m for 14 w/o Bertans.
5. Bertans @ $14m, & we slide in under the tax.

nate/pcbothwei: Is this approximately correct?
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#4 » by pcbothwel » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:19 pm

payitforward wrote:Marginally related...

1. $103m for 11 including Pasecniks @$1.5m -- will we pick up his option?
2. Using both exceptions adds $12.9m > $116m/13 players
3. #9 pick + #37 pick = $5.5m > $121.5m for 15 w/o Bertans. But we want to keep Bertans.
4. Back out BAE @ $3.6m > $118m for 14 w/o Bertans.
5. Bertans @ $14m, & we slide in under the tax.

nate/pcbothwei: Is this approximately correct?


Yes. My calcs show us being slightly above the tax if we use/sign both picks, use both exceptions, and sign Bertans for 15M/year (Starting salary is 14M).
I think we can save a bit by:
1) Using Ish & Robinson in trade to lower cost
2) Using less than full MLE (i.e. 3/20M contract)
3) Dont use BAE

I think Philly could be a good match as they need guard help and we could save a little money and get a late 2nd.
Ish + Robinson for Scott, Smith, #49 = Philly gets better fit/immediate help while we take a rehab project in Smith, save 1.5M, and get a late 2nd.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#5 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:22 pm

I don't think Philly does that trade, which takes them even further over the tax while providing little real benefit. Most people will view both Robinson & Smith as no more than dead weight.

They might do Ish for Scott. Then again, we do need someone to back up John Wall!

As well, there'd be no motivation to include the #49 pick (a minor point, since we could buy it if we wanted -- & of course I do want to but make it one of their 34/36 picks).
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#6 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:34 pm

Whether & how to use the MLE/BAE or both (or neither) must depend on who's available & can be snagged, obviously -- as discussed in the FA thread.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#7 » by doclinkin » Today 12:18 am

I wonder in this COVID year which teams may be looking for corners to cut to make up for shortfalls in income. The Athletic had an article on which teams may feel the bite this year. I'd wonder which ones have surplus draft picks to sell, or teams with topped out rosters, contenders looking for vets, or with too many young players already, or capped out with stars they need to re-sign, or simply teams with cashflow issues looking to cut costs. Here were the teams cited who may be feeling squeezed right now (excerpts) :

Warriors: ...The Warriors spent lavishly to build an arena... ... stuck on a TV contract... locking them out of proceeds that could have been netted from their miraculous rise. Now the Warriors claim a very expensive roster, having committed roughly a combined $130 million to their four best-paid players next season

... Whenever this pandemic ends, the Warriors can go right back to printing money at Chase. For that reason, it’s likely easier for the Warriors to get a loan than for other franchises.... If they build another championship-tier team, fans will return in droves and pay top dollar. Not every franchise can expect the level of revenue the Warriors can reach at their peak. The future can be bright in San Francisco, but one wonders about ownership’s financial pain tolerance in the short term.

Rockets: This one is obvious. Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta is invested heavily in restaurants, hotels, amusement parks, casinos and, really, any property you can name that might have been devastated by COVID-19. ...

Thunder: ...No team has prepared better for the disaster. Sam Presti has ... net the Thunder as many as 15 first-round picks between now and the 2026 season. It’s a genius play because the Thunder might not be able to do much in the immediate future. The energy sector, on which Oklahoma City and much of the Thunder ownership rely, has been crushed of late. ... In the near term, the Thunder likely can’t do much, save for stockpiling, and man are they doing a great job of that.

Heat: Two words: Carnival Cruises. Still, I’ve heard some league insiders say that Heat owner and Carnival Corporation chairman Micky Arison has a bit less exposure to the losses than you might think...

Kings: This is the little brother of the Warriors’ situation. The Kings have a new-ish arena, which means they have new costs. Vivek Ranadivé is not among the wealthier owners and Sacramento is a smaller market. The Kings have a lot to sort out financially. Hopefully, they can get better stewardship on that front than they’ve gotten in the recent past.

Pacers: Owner Herb Simon boasts billions, but he’s in a small market and his Simon Property Group is heavily leveraged into malls. Yes, malls. This was a troublesome business to be in before the pandemic struck. Today’s Motley Fool update on the Simon Property Group begins with the statement, “There’s really no way to put a positive spin on 2020 for Simon Property Group (NYSE:SPG) or its shareholders.”...

Knicks: To quote Knicks great Patrick Ewing, yes the Knicks make a lot of money, but they spend a lot of money, too. The Madison Square Garden Company is heavily invested in entertainment ventures that have been hard hit, such as basketball and hockey. Due to that, its stock price cratered in the spring and has yet to really recover. The Knicks have traditionally squandered their financial advantage over other teams. Perhaps even that edge is eroding.

Raptors: It’s a very similar situation to the Knicks, save for the on-court product. Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment presides over multiple sports franchises and the high costs associated with them. This pandemic represents a haircut on many fronts.


Of the above the Kings have four draft picks and a mess of a roster, but their picks are late. They are small market like Charlotte and New Orleans and the Timberwolves. All teams with 3 or more picks.

Knicks roster is a mess. They don't need to sell picks but would probably be happy to consolidate picks in a trade. That said they will likely jump higher into the lotto to get a PG, flipping picks with GSW with some incentive. People suggest they want LaMelo, though for my money I think Halliburton is a better player for them. So maybe they'd be smarter to wait and see which one falls. Except that Halliburton seems to be a draft target for GSW as well, so they may flip with someone before the Knix.

Aside from the above, Philadelphia has a swarm of picks and championship delusions. Not small market and probably not squeezed, but still they likely want to consolidate on a trade up or swap for a veteran.

The configurations don't line up for anything ideal from what I can see. But maybe we can buy late picks, the way Ernie used to sell them. Or squeeze in on multi-team trades and see what we can land from it. I don't expect Ted or Ms Powell-Jobs have been hurt by the pandemic the way others have. Most billionaires have significantly profited off of this administration.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#8 » by nate33 » Today 2:09 am

Unfortunately, we don't have any trade exceptions of any size to take advantage of this. At best, we can trade a 2021 contract (Ish, Robinson) for a longer bad contract. Teams looking to get into the 2021 free agency sweepstakes might be interested.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#9 » by payitforward » Today 3:03 am

GMs aren't fools by and large, so most trades exchange equal value. If you are a really good team with lots and lots of good players, then a trade can help you by balancing you positionally. If you are the Washington Wizards & just went 25-47 you don't have that kind of roster.

Thus, if we want more draft picks we will either trade down or buy picks or both. That's it.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#10 » by pcbothwel » Today 2:09 pm

nate33 wrote:Unfortunately, we don't have any trade exceptions of any size to take advantage of this. At best, we can trade a 2021 contract (Ish, Robinson) for a longer bad contract. Teams looking to get into the 2021 free agency sweepstakes might be interested.


Agreed. Bertans (13-14M), both draft picks, and the Full MLE puts us right near the Lux tax (~130M) with 15 players.
On a chaotic schedule and a draft class with middling high end talent, I just prefer to take my chances with that squad and just enjoy competitive basketball.
We are about to have 5 guys that rotation caliber players and are 23 or under (Brown, Bryant, Rui, Bonga, #9), so lets just take it in stride.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#11 » by payitforward » Today 2:37 pm

pcbothwel wrote:...We are about to have 5 guys that are rotation caliber players and are 23 or under (Brown, Bryant, Rui, Bonga, #9), so lets just take it in stride.

I'm not sure what you mean by "let's just take it in stride," but if you mean let's not try to make some "significant" trade to get a "proven" vet, then of course I agree totally. That's along the lines of a simple fact: you cannot rush a team rebuild.

But, I'm not sure what "rotation-worthy" means. If it means "worthy of 20 minutes a night on an average NBA team," then I'd certainly agree that Brown, Bryant & Bonga have shown themselves to be that. But, I don't think we can assume that our #9 pick will come into the league at that level. & I think it's pretty optimistic to describe Rui as at that level. Yet, perhaps he will get there in his second year.

Doesn't mean we shouldn't make one or more trades. The move we've discussed that brings us Jarrett Allen & the #19 in return for Thomas Bryant & the #9 strikes me as a good one. At the same time, the potential that Okongwu might drop to us at #9 would make it hard to execute.
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