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Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX

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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#141 » by Dark Faze » Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:08 am

I like that trade a lot, though I think they'd force Jackson on us and give us only one of Wright/Boban. Hard to tell who they'd prefer between the two...they need insurance against a Porzingis injury, but at the same time they have Brunson as a replacement for Wright.

Either way, it'd free us up to potentially move Ish for a better fit, though I don't know what team would be interested.

Then ideally trade #9 for #14 and #30. That would be a terrific off-season.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#142 » by payitforward » Mon Oct 12, 2020 2:35 pm

Obviously, we wouldn't do the trade for Jackson & Boban! Whole point of the trade is acquire Wright.

OTOH, Wright & Jackson is no better or worse than Wright & Boban -- well... worse by $1.5m in salary this year. But, actually, Jackson might be easier for us to trade.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#143 » by Dat2U » Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:00 pm

nate33 wrote:On the Trade Board, it looks like some Dallas fans have interest in Bertans and are willing to trade the #18 for him. Would you do the following trade:

Washington trades: Bertans (S&T 3 years with the first year at $15.75M or less)
Dallas trades: #18, Delon Wright, Boban Marjanovic

I'm very leery of signing Bertans to a long term deal at $16M a year. If he plays exactly like he did this year, he might be worth it, but I'm getting a bit of a Martell Webster vibe. 2019-20 might have been a fluke season. Guys rarely shoot that insanely well for multiple years in a row. If his 3P% drops just 2% from 42.4% to 40.4% and his 3PA's per 36 drop from 10.7 to 8.7, then suddenly he looks more like Terrence Ross than Davis Bertans. And I don't want to be paying Terrence Ross $16M a year.

If we can turn him into a pick plus Delon Wright on a fair contract (9.0M and $8.5M next two years respectively), I'd do it. An added plus is that Boban's $3.5M deal is expiring and we could probably package that with Ish's deal and get some more value from a team looking to clear 2021 cap room.


I don't know if the upcoming offseason changes things but in the past trading picks for impending FAs was not viable due to the moratorium on free agency until week or two after the draft.

I also would be against it if Bertans is willing to resign. Bertans IMO is the perfect fit alongside Beal & Wall. Look at the offensive rating when Beal & Bertans were on the floor together. Now imagine that with Wall! Bertans creates incredible spacing and I don't see how we'd replicate that w/o him.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#144 » by Ruzious » Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:47 pm

Dat2U wrote:
nate33 wrote:On the Trade Board, it looks like some Dallas fans have interest in Bertans and are willing to trade the #18 for him. Would you do the following trade:

Washington trades: Bertans (S&T 3 years with the first year at $15.75M or less)
Dallas trades: #18, Delon Wright, Boban Marjanovic

I'm very leery of signing Bertans to a long term deal at $16M a year. If he plays exactly like he did this year, he might be worth it, but I'm getting a bit of a Martell Webster vibe. 2019-20 might have been a fluke season. Guys rarely shoot that insanely well for multiple years in a row. If his 3P% drops just 2% from 42.4% to 40.4% and his 3PA's per 36 drop from 10.7 to 8.7, then suddenly he looks more like Terrence Ross than Davis Bertans. And I don't want to be paying Terrence Ross $16M a year.

If we can turn him into a pick plus Delon Wright on a fair contract (9.0M and $8.5M next two years respectively), I'd do it. An added plus is that Boban's $3.5M deal is expiring and we could probably package that with Ish's deal and get some more value from a team looking to clear 2021 cap room.


I don't know if the upcoming offseason changes things but in the past trading picks for impending FAs was not viable due to the moratorium on free agency until week or two after the draft.

I also would be against it if Bertans is willing to resign. Bertans IMO is the perfect fit alongside Beal & Wall. Look at the offensive rating when Beal & Bertans were on the floor together. Now imagine that with Wall! Bertans creates incredible spacing and I don't see how we'd replicate that w/o him.

Defense? Rebounding? We'll be paying about 100 mil a year for the 3 of them, so it's nice that they'd be good at one thing. I think we'll sign him and evaluate where we are near the trade deadline. Really, I think Atlanta's the only other team likely to make a serious free agent offer to him. Phoenix might, but they have Cam Johnson filling that 1 dimensional role.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#145 » by bsilver » Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:43 pm

Ruzious wrote:
Dat2U wrote:
nate33 wrote:On the Trade Board, it looks like some Dallas fans have interest in Bertans and are willing to trade the #18 for him. Would you do the following trade:

Washington trades: Bertans (S&T 3 years with the first year at $15.75M or less)
Dallas trades: #18, Delon Wright, Boban Marjanovic

I'm very leery of signing Bertans to a long term deal at $16M a year. If he plays exactly like he did this year, he might be worth it, but I'm getting a bit of a Martell Webster vibe. 2019-20 might have been a fluke season. Guys rarely shoot that insanely well for multiple years in a row. If his 3P% drops just 2% from 42.4% to 40.4% and his 3PA's per 36 drop from 10.7 to 8.7, then suddenly he looks more like Terrence Ross than Davis Bertans. And I don't want to be paying Terrence Ross $16M a year.

If we can turn him into a pick plus Delon Wright on a fair contract (9.0M and $8.5M next two years respectively), I'd do it. An added plus is that Boban's $3.5M deal is expiring and we could probably package that with Ish's deal and get some more value from a team looking to clear 2021 cap room.


I don't know if the upcoming offseason changes things but in the past trading picks for impending FAs was not viable due to the moratorium on free agency until week or two after the draft.

I also would be against it if Bertans is willing to resign. Bertans IMO is the perfect fit alongside Beal & Wall. Look at the offensive rating when Beal & Bertans were on the floor together. Now imagine that with Wall! Bertans creates incredible spacing and I don't see how we'd replicate that w/o him.

Defense? Rebounding? We'll be paying about 100 mil a year for the 3 of them, so it's nice that they'd be good at one thing. I think we'll sign him and evaluate where we are near the trade deadline. Really, I think Atlanta's the only other team likely to make a serious free agent offer to him. Phoenix might, but they have Cam Johnson filling that 1 dimensional role.

The Knicks are in the mix for Bertans. Only 55M in guaranteed salary. Portis is team option and Taj Gibson is not guaranteed. Makes sense to drop both and get Bertan to pair with Julius Randle, with Randle playing some small ball center. Bertans may not want to play with a bad team, but we’re not much better. NY probably has a Latvian community, if that’s a factor.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#146 » by nate33 » Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:06 pm

bsilver wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
Dat2U wrote:
I don't know if the upcoming offseason changes things but in the past trading picks for impending FAs was not viable due to the moratorium on free agency until week or two after the draft.

I also would be against it if Bertans is willing to resign. Bertans IMO is the perfect fit alongside Beal & Wall. Look at the offensive rating when Beal & Bertans were on the floor together. Now imagine that with Wall! Bertans creates incredible spacing and I don't see how we'd replicate that w/o him.

Defense? Rebounding? We'll be paying about 100 mil a year for the 3 of them, so it's nice that they'd be good at one thing. I think we'll sign him and evaluate where we are near the trade deadline. Really, I think Atlanta's the only other team likely to make a serious free agent offer to him. Phoenix might, but they have Cam Johnson filling that 1 dimensional role.

The Knicks are in the mix for Bertans. Only 55M in guaranteed salary. Portis is team option and Taj Gibson is not guaranteed. Makes sense to drop both and get Bertan to pair with Julius Randle, with Randle playing some small ball center. Bertans may not want to play with a bad team, but we’re not much better. NY probably has a Latvian community, if that’s a factor.

It's hard to predict what the Knicks would do because they're so badly run, they do illogical things. But, I think it's a real bad move to spend $16+ a year on a long term deal for a role player when they are in dire need of top line talent. They should keep that cap room as a way of buying picks down the road. Or, alternatively, maybe use that cap room in free agency next year when their are legit stars available.

For the Wizards, I question paying Bertans $16M a year considering we're not really contenders, but at least we have two stars on the roster capable of carrying the team to the 2nd round of the playoffs, and we're not sacrificing any potential future max-cap-room opportunities. For the Knicks, the upside of adding Bertans is less enticing (they still won't make the playoffs) and the opportunity cost is greater (because they are sacrificing max-contract cap room).
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#147 » by payitforward » Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:34 pm

It's pretty simple: $15m is too much -- a fair amount too much -- for the production that Davis Bertans provides. That's true even if some of that production comes by way of other players who benefit from his being on the court.

Moreover, since we are not going to be contending for a title, not even for the ecf any time soon, with or without Davis, we can't even justify it by saying that we are willing to over-pay for the piece that puts us over the top.

So, it would have to be justified in some other way. I can imagine that: e.g., he makes us more entertaining, puts butts in seats, increases our television audience, gives the impression that we are serious, exerts a positive influence in the locker room, what have you. Keep in mind that, for Ted Leonsis, the Wizards are a product he is selling to the public. If signing Davis for $15m is worth it to him in future revenue (calculated however), that's a legitimate reason to sign him.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#148 » by Ruzious » Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:51 pm

nate33 wrote:
bsilver wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Defense? Rebounding? We'll be paying about 100 mil a year for the 3 of them, so it's nice that they'd be good at one thing. I think we'll sign him and evaluate where we are near the trade deadline. Really, I think Atlanta's the only other team likely to make a serious free agent offer to him. Phoenix might, but they have Cam Johnson filling that 1 dimensional role.

The Knicks are in the mix for Bertans. Only 55M in guaranteed salary. Portis is team option and Taj Gibson is not guaranteed. Makes sense to drop both and get Bertan to pair with Julius Randle, with Randle playing some small ball center. Bertans may not want to play with a bad team, but we’re not much better. NY probably has a Latvian community, if that’s a factor.

It's hard to predict what the Knicks would do because they're so badly run, they do illogical things. But, I think it's a real bad move to spend $16+ a year on a long term deal for a role player when they are in dire need of top line talent. They should keep that cap room as a way of buying picks down the road. Or, alternatively, maybe use that cap room in free agency next year when their are legit stars available.

For the Wizards, I question paying Bertans $16M a year considering we're not really contenders, but at least we have two stars on the roster capable of carrying the team to the 2nd round of the playoffs, and we're not sacrificing any potential future max-cap-room opportunities. For the Knicks, the upside of adding Bertans is less enticing (they still won't make the playoffs) and the opportunity cost is greater (because they are sacrificing max-contract cap room).

True. I'd be surprised if they're patient enough for a full rebuild and yet getting good but not real good players like Bertans wouldn't fit for a rebuild and wouldn't fit for going for a championship for them. They do these things like signing Randle and Portis and various other PF's that show they have no real plan.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#149 » by DCZards » Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:31 pm

payitforward wrote:It's pretty simple: $15m is too much -- a fair amount too much -- for the production that Davis Bertans provides. That's true even if some of that production comes by way of other players who benefit from his being on the court.

Moreover, since we are not going to be contending for a title, not even for the ecf any time soon, with or without Davis, we can't even justify it by saying that we are willing to over-pay for the piece that puts us over the top.

So, it would have to be justified in some other way. I can imagine that: e.g., he makes us more entertaining, puts butts in seats, increases our television audience, gives the impression that we are serious, exerts a positive influence in the locker room, what have you. Keep in mind that, for Ted Leonsis, the Wizards are a product he is selling to the public. If signing Davis for $15m is worth it to him in future revenue (calculated however), that's a legitimate reason to sign him.

Ted and TS are also selling a product to Beal and Wall, especially BB. I'm sure the Zards FO wants to show them that the goal is a quick rebuild and not a 3-4 year rebuild based solely on players currently in their early 20s. Bertans is an experienced player with a 3 pt. shooting skillset that fits right in with playing next to Wall/Beal.

He might not do a whole lot more but Davis's lethal 3 pt. shooting is a valuable commodity in today's NBA.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#150 » by payitforward » Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:39 pm

Good points, Zards! I hadn't thought of that, but you are for sure correct that Brad especially is in play as an observer of what the Wiz FO does. Of course, we don't actually know what goes through that young man's head, but it makes perfect sense that he'd rather play for a better team than a worse one (duh!).

OTOH, if Brad wants a chance at a ring, that's another matter entirely. It's a fantasy to imagine that "a quick rebuild" will produce a team capable of competing for a title. & re-signing Bertans might make the other process -- the one that could hope to yield a true competitor in 3+ years -- more difficult.

Then again... it might not! Re-signing Bertans isn't an obvious example of getting in your own way -- like trading what turned out to be a lottery pick for Markieff Morris (& then having to give another draft pick just to get rid of him). Or trading another lottery pick for Bojan Bogdanovic then letting him walk after he plays a couple of dozen games.

If we're ever going to compete for a title, however, it won't be because we re-signed Bertans at $15m. It'll be because we pick Precious Achiuwa & he turns out to be a stud (or some other guy at that spot, or trade down, blah blah). & because the guy we get at #37 turns out to be a plus player in the NBA. & some guys we got for nothing (say Mathews or Robinson or both) do too. & because Rui Hachimura improves rapidly to become a really good NBA player, maybe starter quality.

Still, we're in agreement -- there are plenty of reasons to pay Davis Bertans more than his basketball production warrants. & it's likely to happen too.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#151 » by pcbothwel » Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:03 pm

Good discussion. It should also be noted that the NBA has a soft cap with many nuances and caveats.
$1 for team A does not equal $1 for team B because of opportunity cost.

If a team has cap space (Knicks or ATL) they can use that 15M on Bertans, as well as any other FA or in a trade to take on salary.
We can only use it on Bertans, and because we are not up against the tax, we dont even have to factor in the loss of the MLE.

The question(s) surrounding re-signing Bertans are:
1) Will his production on the court result in him being a net positive both for himself and his teammates?
2) Does that skill set/production directly overlap with another player at the same position and therefore create redundancy?
3) Does his project to be at least neutral value(I.E. Trade him straight up for Cap space/TPE)?
4) Does he fit with the team culture and timeline of top players?

I think its an easy yes, no, yes, yes
Ideally, we could sign him to a declining contract so as to avoid the lux tax for another two years while also keeping his value higher for possible rebuild trade in a year if need be. (14.5M, 14M, 13.5M).

If he balks at the offer and thinks he can get more from a team with capspace, I would offer a SnT to a contender (DAL or GSW).
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#152 » by payitforward » Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:53 pm

DCZards wrote:...the goal is a quick rebuild....

Along those lines, let's combine trade ideas & draft ideas & see what we can do:

1. First, follow nate's terrific trade idea...
nate33 wrote:...Bertans (S&T ...) (to Dallas for) ...#18, Delon Wright, Boban Marjanovic

2. Trade Our #9 pick plus Boban Marjanovic to the Celtics for their 3 R1 picks: #s 14, 26 & 30. (Do the Celtics need Boban? I hope so! :))
3. Trade #14 & Thomas Bryant to the Nets for #19 & Jarrett Allen.
4. Buy the #34 pick from Philly.

#18 – Pick Achiuwa if he happens to drop. Otherwise Nesmith or Desmond Bane.
#19 – Pick Desmond Bane or Paul Reed
#26 – Pick Paul Reed, Xavier Tillman or Tyler Bey
#30 – Pick Vernon Carey
#34 – Reed or Tyler Bey if one of them drops. Otherwise, either Josh Green or Leandro Bolmaro
#37 – Malachi Flynn

Whew! A whirlwind.... Where are we?

Gone are Davis Bertans & Thomas Bryant. Sorry to see them go -- both of them! Bryant is a really good young player who's going to have a long and extremely productive NBA career. Davis is a good guy with one extremely entertaining skill & a positive effect on the guys around him. Unfortunately, you have to give to get -- & we just got a whole lot!

In are Delon Wright & Jarrett Allen. Wright is our 3d guard. He is so solid & efficient (not to mention a really good defender) that you could get away with calling him the best player on the Washington Wizards, overall. As a scorer, he's average at best. But, he gets more defensive boards, more offensive boards, more assists, more steals & more blocks than average, while committing fewer fouls, turning the ball over less than average & playing terrific defense. The result is a guy with a major positive effect on your team's record. Wright was a big part of why Dallas went from 33-49 in 2018 to the equivalent of a 47-35 full-season result (43-32) this year.

Jarrett Allen is our starting Center. A very different kind of player than Thomas Bryant but, overall, a somewhat more effective player. Above all on defense.

Whom did we get out of the draft in this picture? Well, obviously, it will depend. Let's say it was Desmond Bane, Paul Reed, Xavier Tillman, Vernon Carey, Josh Green & Malachi Flynn. Meaning that we missed out on all of Achiuwa, Nesmith, Tyler Bey & Leandro Bolmaro. My guess is we might well have gotten 1-3 of those guys, but for this scenario it doesn't really matter. If one of those guys -- Achiuwa, say -- seems a big loss to you, then assume that we could have figured out how to get him instead of let's say Paul Reed & Josh Green. In fact, without going back to re-figure all this, let's just look at it that way: our draft haul was Achiuwa, Bane, Tillman, Carey & Flynn.

With Wright & Allen, that's 7 in. & 2 out (Bertans/Bryant). We add these players to Wall, Beal, Brown, Bonga, Hachimura, Robinson, Smith, Schofield & Wagner. 14 guys.

Now... we're going to want to trade Smith at the deadline, but we don't want to trade him now. But, I'd say that, given the bigs who have come in, we would be happy to trade Wagner -- in fact, maybe he would have gone in one of the moves above. Or, we'd be pleased to take a R2 pick next year for him. As to Schofield, well... our salary load allows us to waive him & eat the $1.5m we owe him.

Back down to 12. So, let's sign Mathews on the cheap, have control for 3 years, but put in a team option for year 2 of the contract.

Back up to 13. Without adding up salaries, it seems obvious that we are not flirting with the tax barrier -- not near it. So, let's use both of our exceptions on the best veteran (young veteran!) players that make sense for us. Who would you suggest?

Rebuild over -- two years from now, if we've chosen well in the draft (& especially if we've gotten a little lucky somewhere along the way) we are competing for the ECF.

Quick enough rebuild for you, Zards? :)
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#153 » by doclinkin » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:31 am

Celtics have Tacko Fall who they don’t play. They’re not trading for Boban.

And if we are involved in a Boban trade I am wrapping my arms and legs around his ankle and never giving him up. I won’t pass up the chance for photo ops with him AND big Gheorghe together. I want to corner the market on jolly European bridge trolls. Mine mine mine mine mine mine mine!
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#154 » by Dat2U » Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:53 pm

payitforward wrote:
DCZards wrote:...the goal is a quick rebuild....

Along those lines, let's combine trade ideas & draft ideas & see what we can do:

1. First, follow nate's terrific trade idea...
nate33 wrote:...Bertans (S&T ...) (to Dallas for) ...#18, Delon Wright, Boban Marjanovic

2. Trade Our #9 pick plus Boban Marjanovic to the Celtics for their 3 R1 picks: #s 14, 26 & 30. (Do the Celtics need Boban? I hope so! :))
3. Trade #14 & Thomas Bryant to the Nets for #19 & Jarrett Allen.
4. Buy the #34 pick from Philly.

#18 – Pick Achiuwa if he happens to drop. Otherwise Nesmith or Desmond Bane.
#19 – Pick Desmond Bane or Paul Reed
#26 – Pick Paul Reed, Xavier Tillman or Tyler Bey
#30 – Pick Vernon Carey
#34 – Reed or Tyler Bey if one of them drops. Otherwise, either Josh Green or Leandro Bolmaro
#37 – Malachi Flynn

Whew! A whirlwind.... Where are we?

Gone are Davis Bertans & Thomas Bryant. Sorry to see them go -- both of them! Bryant is a really good young player who's going to have a long and extremely productive NBA career. Davis is a good guy with one extremely entertaining skill & a positive effect on the guys around him. Unfortunately, you have to give to get -- & we just got a whole lot!

In are Delon Wright & Jarrett Allen. Wright is our 3d guard. He is so solid & efficient (not to mention a really good defender) that you could get away with calling him the best player on the Washington Wizards, overall. As a scorer, he's average at best. But, he gets more defensive boards, more offensive boards, more assists, more steals & more blocks than average, while committing fewer fouls, turning the ball over less than average & playing terrific defense. The result is a guy with a major positive effect on your team's record. Wright was a big part of why Dallas went from 33-49 in 2018 to the equivalent of a 47-35 full-season result (43-32) this year.

Jarrett Allen is our starting Center. A very different kind of player than Thomas Bryant but, overall, a somewhat more effective player. Above all on defense.

Whom did we get out of the draft in this picture? Well, obviously, it will depend. Let's say it was Desmond Bane, Paul Reed, Xavier Tillman, Vernon Carey, Josh Green & Malachi Flynn. Meaning that we missed out on all of Achiuwa, Nesmith, Tyler Bey & Leandro Bolmaro. My guess is we might well have gotten 1-3 of those guys, but for this scenario it doesn't really matter. If one of those guys -- Achiuwa, say -- seems a big loss to you, then assume that we could have figured out how to get him instead of let's say Paul Reed & Josh Green. In fact, without going back to re-figure all this, let's just look at it that way: our draft haul was Achiuwa, Bane, Tillman, Carey & Flynn.

With Wright & Allen, that's 7 in. & 2 out (Bertans/Bryant). We add these players to Wall, Beal, Brown, Bonga, Hachimura, Robinson, Smith, Schofield & Wagner. 14 guys.

Now... we're going to want to trade Smith at the deadline, but we don't want to trade him now. But, I'd say that, given the bigs who have come in, we would be happy to trade Wagner -- in fact, maybe he would have gone in one of the moves above. Or, we'd be pleased to take a R2 pick next year for him. As to Schofield, well... our salary load allows us to waive him & eat the $1.5m we owe him.

Back down to 12. So, let's sign Mathews on the cheap, have control for 3 years, but put in a team option for year 2 of the contract.

Back up to 13. Without adding up salaries, it seems obvious that we are not flirting with the tax barrier -- not near it. So, let's use both of our exceptions on the best veteran (young veteran!) players that make sense for us. Who would you suggest?

Rebuild over -- two years from now, if we've chosen well in the draft (& especially if we've gotten a little lucky somewhere along the way) we are competing for the ECF.

Quick enough rebuild for you, Zards? :)


We can kill the S&T for this year's draft picks idea. Wasn't legal before and nothing has changed to make it legal now.

If we deal Bertans it would have to be for a player and a future pick.

I like Delon Wright. Was one of my favorites last year in FA but circling back to Beal... every effort will be made to keep him happy. Dealing Bertans, likely our 3rd scoring option, probably makes him very unhappy without a clear replacement.

Again I point out to what Bertans brings as a floor spacer at 6-10 is not easy to replace. I believe you don't break the bank but you keep him. I'd pay $15 mil per. He's a perfect fit for the modern game. Obviously he has weaknesses which is why you want a good defensive/rebounding C beside him.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#155 » by pcbothwel » Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:44 pm

Agreed Dat.
Resigning Bertans doesnt hurt us unless its for more than 15M, then it gets hairy with a 131-133M Lux tax.
If we are looking for the simplest way (Least amount of fantasy trades) to improve this team with players that can contribute immediately, fit our culture and needed skill set, and also have some upside/ceiling to excite us... I would:

- Trade Ish & Robinson for Aminu & 45
- Draft Okongwu (Obviously this isnt likely)
- Draft the top ranked PG at 37 (Pritchard, Winston, Riller, Flynn, Jones)
- Draft Nate Hinton @ 45 (If Magic balk, just buy pick in 47-52 range)
- Use MLE to sign another 3 & D wing. I.E. Justin Holiday, Valentine... or just keep Garrison Matthews if nothing else

Wall / Napier / Pritchard
Beal / Brown
Bonga / Valentine / Hinton
Bertans / Rui / Aminu
Bryant / Okongwu / Wagner

IQ, Defense, shooting (Both C&S and off dribble), rebounding, ball handling, and youth at every position.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#156 » by Frichuela » Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:11 pm

pcbothwel wrote:Agreed Dat.
Resigning Bertans doesnt hurt us unless its for more than 15M, then it gets hairy with a 131-133M Lux tax.
If we are looking for the simplest way (Least amount of fantasy trades) to improve this team with players that can contribute immediately, fit our culture and needed skill set, and also have some upside/ceiling to excite us... I would:

- Trade Ish & Robinson for Aminu & 45
- Draft Okongwu (Obviously this isnt likely)
- Draft the top ranked PG at 37 (Pritchard, Winston, Riller, Flynn, Jones)
- Draft Nate Hinton @ 45 (If Magic balk, just buy pick in 47-52 range)
- Use MLE to sign another 3 & D wing. I.E. Justin Holiday, Valentine... or just keep Garrison Matthews if nothing else

Wall / Napier / Pritchard
Beal / Brown
Bonga / Valentine / Hinton
Bertans / Rui / Aminu
Bryant / Okongwu / Wagner

IQ, Defense, shooting (Both C&S and off dribble), rebounding, ball handling, and youth at every position.


I am more optimistic that others on this Board regarding our odds for landing Okongwu at #9. Indeed, a few mocks from informed analysts (e.g. Vecenie) give us Okongwu at #9. IMO, the biggest threat is a trade down of a MIN or GS with someone like NY or the Cavs where either would target Okongwu at #8 or #5.

If we get Okongwu, I don't think we need a trade, instead I would:

-Keep Bertans and try if a $45mn/3-year declining contract works (say $17mn 1st year, $15mn 2nd year, $13 mn 3rd year).
-Use the MLE and target a defensive wing such as Derrick Jones or Torrey Craig for something below the full MLE (e.g. $21mn/3-years).
- Target a PG at #37. Anyone in pcbothwel's list could do. The idea would be to groom this player for a year behind Ish and playing heavy minutes in the G-league.

The average minutes distribution (per game) could be something like:

Wall (30)/Ish (12)/Troy (6)
Beal (34)/Troy (14)
D Jones or T Craig (28)/Bertans (12)/Bonga (8)
Rui (28)/Bertans (16)/Okongwu (4)
Okongwu (24)/Bryant (24)

The hope is that this squad becomes more athletic (Okongwu, Jones/Craig) and better defensively while the Wiz keep their offensive efficiency from last year. Here, Wall has to play more off-ball and focus more on defense.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#157 » by nate33 » Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:04 pm

Frichuela wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:Agreed Dat.
Resigning Bertans doesnt hurt us unless its for more than 15M, then it gets hairy with a 131-133M Lux tax.
If we are looking for the simplest way (Least amount of fantasy trades) to improve this team with players that can contribute immediately, fit our culture and needed skill set, and also have some upside/ceiling to excite us... I would:

- Trade Ish & Robinson for Aminu & 45
- Draft Okongwu (Obviously this isnt likely)
- Draft the top ranked PG at 37 (Pritchard, Winston, Riller, Flynn, Jones)
- Draft Nate Hinton @ 45 (If Magic balk, just buy pick in 47-52 range)
- Use MLE to sign another 3 & D wing. I.E. Justin Holiday, Valentine... or just keep Garrison Matthews if nothing else

Wall / Napier / Pritchard
Beal / Brown
Bonga / Valentine / Hinton
Bertans / Rui / Aminu
Bryant / Okongwu / Wagner

IQ, Defense, shooting (Both C&S and off dribble), rebounding, ball handling, and youth at every position.


I am more optimistic that others on this Board regarding our odds for landing Okongwu at #9. Indeed, a few mocks from informed analysts (e.g. Vecenie) give us Okongwu at #9. IMO, the biggest threat is a trade down of a MIN or GS with someone like NY or the Cavs where either would target Okongwu at #8 or #5.

If we get Okongwu, I don't think we need a trade, instead I would:

-Keep Bertans and try if a $45mn/3-year declining contract works (say $17mn 1st year, $15mn 2nd year, $13 mn 3rd year).
-Use the MLE and target a defensive wing such as Derrick Jones or Torrey Craig for something below the full MLE (e.g. $21mn/3-years).
- Target a PG at #37. Anyone in pcbothwel's list could do. The idea would be to groom this player for a year behind Ish and playing heavy minutes in the G-league.

The average minutes distribution (per game) could be something like:

Wall (30)/Ish (12)/Troy (6)
Beal (34)/Troy (14)
D Jones or T Craig (28)/Bertans (12)/Bonga (8)
Rui (28)/Bertans (16)/Okongwu (4)
Okongwu (24)/Bryant (24)

The hope is that this squad becomes more athletic (Okongwu, Jones/Craig) and better defensively while the Wiz keep their offensive efficiency from last year. Here, Wall has to play more off-ball and focus more on defense.

I like this plan overall, but I'm not so sure we have the long term luxtax flexibility to sign Bertans to $15M a year and add a SF for $7M+. No matter. If we can't afford the defensive SF, I'm content to continue and try and develop Bonga and Brown for that role.

The one thing about the trading for Aminu idea is that if we trade Robinson and Ish, we incur no significant expense this year. We get the defensive forward for free.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#158 » by nate33 » Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:07 pm

Okongwu is the ideal pick, get him and then acquire a defensive forward either with the MLE or a trade.

But in Okongwu is gone when we pick, then the alternative is to acquire the defensive forward at #9 (Okoro or Vassell) and then acquire our defensive big man via free agency (Nerlens Noel). That works for me too. It's a little less sexy because I don't think Okoro/Vassell have the type of long term upside that Okongwu has, but it would address our short term deficiencies.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#159 » by Frichuela » Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:32 pm

nate33 wrote:Okongwu is the ideal pick, get him and then acquire a defensive forward either with the MLE or a trade.

But in Okongwu is gone when we pick, then the alternative is to acquire the defensive forward at #9 (Okoro or Vassell) and then acquire our defensive big man via free agency (Nerlens Noel). That works for me too. It's a little less sexy because I don't think Okoro/Vassell have the type of long term upside that Okongwu has, but it would address our short term deficiencies.


Agreed Nate, this would be a decent (albeit less preferable) 2nd scenario.

An alternative 3rd scenario could be to trade with Brooklyn...and try to get Jarrett Allen.

I know some on the board disagree but #19 + Allen + Temple (TO) for #9 + Bryant would work for me

Another iteration of this trade could be to do Prince + Allen for Bryant, Ish and Jerome Robinson. This is provided Brooklyn would like to get rid of Prince's hefty contract ($29mn for 2 years). The issue with this trade is that I di not think we'll have enough room to pay Bertans and not incur in the tax after 2021-22...
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX 

Post#160 » by payitforward » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:26 pm

Goes without saying that my "quick rebuild" included a number of fantasy elements. What is life without fantasy?

With all that Bertans brings as a floor spacer, we went 25-47 last year. Part of the reason for that record was the level of Davis Bertans' NBA game.

Bertans shot the 3 extremely well. But, if you combine all of what he did on the floor last year, we would have been a bit better team if an average NBA PF played his minutes. Maybe 1 or 2 games better.

Let me put it another way. Every 40 minutes, Davis scored 4 more points than average for an NBA PF. & it only took him 1.4 extra possessions to do it. That's great.

Of course, if someone else had used those extra 1.4 possessions we would have gotten something out of them! Not 4 points, obviously, but something. We can estimate how much by calculting based on the team's overall efg%. On that basis 1.4 possessions yields 1.5 points.

So Davis' scoring prowess over our team average scoring prowess gained us 2.5 extra points every 40 minutes. That's a good thing.

Unfortunately, in exactly the same way, there were also aspects of his play during those same 40 minutes that lost us other things -- again, as compared to the NBA-average PF -- especially 2.25 defensive rebounds & 1.75 offensive rebounds. Those extra possessions from Mr. Average would supply in excess of the extra 2.5 points Davis accounted for.

I would expect to hear back that none of this really means anything, basketball being such a dynamic & inter-dependent game -- (& this despite the fact that a few minutes earlier or later one can also write that it would be good to draft a guy who rebounds a lot -- in that case, it does seem to matter! :) ).

It's true in a way. Only one number matters -- we added Davis & went 25-47.

As to pleasing Brad -- he seems a smart guy; I don't think he would have any trouble understanding that you don't pay $15m for Davis Bertans level of output. Moreover, when making the right choices lead to a team that is getting better pretty fast, he'll notice that as well.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.

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