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The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards

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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#21 » by doclinkin » Mon Sep 21, 2020 7:40 pm

On fixing the Wizards, question is: what about them is broken? What area do they need to improve the most?

The Wizards were bottom of the league in various defensive categories. Chiefly:
Opponent FG%.
Opponent 3FG%
Opponent FTA
Defensive Rebounding.

This is a complete failure on defense. Basically failing every measure of the Defensive side of the Four Factors except TO's and the possession game (though being dead last at defensive rebounding gives opponents 2nd chance points).

To my way of thinking Defense starts at the hoop. The highest percentage shot is a dunk, then a lay-up, and it gets harder as you work your way out from there. Teams that feast with 3pt shots still miss six times out of 10. Those misses are potential possessions, most of the time they bounce out near to the basket where your big guys can snatch them.

Big guys. As much as the 3pt game has made room for shorter, skilled players, this is still a game for tall athletic players. You can hide a highly talented shorter player if you have tall skilled athletic players at every other position. It makes a difference in the reaction time required to cover space. The Center position may be out of the spotlight right now, but to have nimble and gifted two-way Bigs seems to still be the most reliable way to reach the playoffs and advance.

Big players are commonly late bloomers. If you can find front court players who show aptitude and hustle and work ethic, when young, in my opinion those are the ones you snatch up and lock in to long term contracts. Then get them the specialized tutelage to properly develop. If they don't yet have a jumper, fine, you can work with that as long as there are not mechanical issues. Assists ratios and steals, defensive rebounds, a decent FT%. These are the signs of mental acuity. Is a player aware of not only his own positioning but the opponent and his own team (ast/def boards/steals). Do they work on their craft and are they mentally strong (FT%). Ideally you would like your frontcourt players to be the defensive captain of the team. They are able to call out switches and warn of screens and can see breakdowns happening with time to react to them.

So. We need an upgrade starting from the paint on out. An upgrade in activity, smarts, effort, results, speed, skill. Thomas Bryant is a fine player. He doesn't scare anybody. Yet. He's a hard worker, good energy, if slow reaction speed. He rebounds well in his area, blocks shots that come towards him. He needs help, he is not himself the help. If he is your anchor player you will need a high energy madman Big who can cover for his shortfalls and chase opposing bigs to the outside, show and recover on the Pick and Roll. There are areas Bryant can and should improve with experience and play and anticipation. For this we will need a savvy and tough and smart Big Man coach, or player coach, who can exemplify and demonstrate Big Man play underneath.

There are other areas where he simply won't improve and it is not within his ability to. We shouldn't expect that of him. He may learn to anticipate plays, and play angles, but he will never have a low wide stance and quick lateral feet. If he is our beast underneath we will need guys who can funnel opponents to him, instead of forcing him to chase, let him play Big not force him into a role that is too small for him. We will need guys who can cover his man on the outside and let him polka in and out of the paint dodging the 3 second rule. This means we need long and defensive and smart players at both Forward spots. We need a combo 4/5 who can play small ball Center when Bryant can't afford to be played. Or who can play Big underneath if Bryant builds that 3 pt jumper into an actual weapon, as he seems to want to. We need smart tough defensively minded players in the interior who can make opponents hesitate or take a different angle and delay long enough for the Big to show up.

If we are relying on players to funnel the breakdown in his direction, we will need smart and active and long defensive players at SF or WIng positions. Or big guards who can defend with versatility and effort. Players who can guard 3 positions at least. Either by length or smarts or athleticism and desire and effort. Preferably a combination of that.

SO:

1) High Energy Big. I like Okongwu if he falls to us. I am okay with trading up for him depending on the slot. I also on a trade down like Precious Achiuwa, Isaiah Stewart. Give me a raw athletic player who has shown a desire to do the dirty work, not scared to be posterized, big enough to make others back out and retry. Okay sure we can explore a Jarrett Allen, or similar, but I don't see that we can land that sort of player this year with the assets we have. I'm less interested in a player like Stix Smith since he plays upright not lateral. He seems to me to be that specialist stretch 5, with some of the same weaknesses of Bryant, only less mass. I like his shooting, other parts of his game, but the upside is a question mark.

2) Defensive frontcourt Captain. Either a HOF big as a coach who can point to their resume, championship ring, and highlight reel -- or a player coach who can exemplify the work then retire to a role on the bench and FO as a permanent tutor. Big man play is a specialized skill set, worth investing in. If I'm spending some of that MLE money, let me get a Marc Gasol, AL Horford, even Joakim Noah. I will take a young player who has a preternaturally mature mindset here, one reason I like Xavier Tillman. I wish we could get Ginobili and Duncan as co-head coaches, but hey. Bryant needs the tutleage. Rui needs a role model and instruction.

3) High Energy Mids. We need an ath-elite here. Players like Tyler Bey who are all over the court and can defend 1-4 with effort and intensity. We are deep in smart low key smooth passers at the 3 like TBJ and Bonga, but we lack a madman who can airwalk over peoples heads and stuff it in. We need a player who can defend whomever is torturing us on the perimeter, and also defend the 4 if we are playing a soft outside oriented Big like Bertans. We need guys who can put muscle on giant 3's like Giannis and KD, and fill passing lanes with their bodies. We need back door lob targets for Wall, for when Rui or Bryant float outside to try their face up game. This team needs an infusion of energy and competitive mindset. That's why I'm intrigued even with a player like KMart Jr as an Undrafted target. This is where teams miss on a Siakam or even Giannis, by failing to ID the competitive nature of a raw athletic if incomplete player.

To get all of the above in one offseason, seems like we would need both luck and a trade down.

4). Coaching change. Scotty is a fine guy. Players like him. I really don't need players to like my coach. Just heed and respect him. Players I am told kinda don't like Carlisle. He coaches his ass off. Personally I'm intrigued by Penny Hardaway, he made Memphis into a defensive powerhouse. Even if he wasn't a defensive beast himself if I recall. Still. I want a player who makes smart reads and decisions and has a good feel for the moment. Schemes and situational X's and O's are alright, though we can hire a guru for that, what you want is a coach who commands respect. From teammates and front office and referees. Presence. We want a guy who is not scared to sit a star who is underperforming. Since our players are young, we want to get a guy who early on in their career instills in them good habits and fundamentals and accountability. I'd spend some $ trying to pry Tom Izzo away from the Spartans.

5). Culture change. I like what we heard from Ted et al in the roll out of the new era. It simply requires continued commitment and follow through and money. One aspect they didn't touch on was fandom. I'd like to have diehards in the cheap seats be given ticket upgrades at undersold games, and merchandise and future tickets when they are cheering their tails off and losing their minds. The Caps have a good atmosphere that changes casual fans into diehards, and makes the itinerant population of DC into wannabe locals instead of holding on to their home affiliation. If we had a section of charismatic madmen and comedians filling out boxes in the lower levels we would have fewer people checking their phones and leaving early. We follow home team sports because we want to be a part of something IF there is inherent peer pressure in cheering for the right side, win or lose. Hold contests for free tickets based on irrational demonstrations of fandom. Or clever lyrics. Or roasting opponents. Or whatever. And figure out what you are doing with the 'charge!" organ and the "de-fense" drum because right now they are weak and used at the wrong times.

That's my starting 5.
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#22 » by Ruzious » Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:43 pm

Miami did it just by making good moves over the last few years in different ways:

Draft: 14th pick in 2017: Bam! They got a top 2 player from that draft (Tatum being the other). Traded the 2018 pick for Dragic - the on-court brains of the team. 13th pick in 2019 - they got their Herro (a top 5 player from that draft)

Undrafted free agents: Duncan Robinson and Nunn better. Previously, they signed Derrick Jones, Jr and developed him through the G League.

Expensive free agent: Jimmy Butler - the star presence they needed.

Trade: They got 3 and bruiserDefender Jae Crowder, respected Andre Iggy, and Solly Hill for name guys who just weren't good fits - Justice winslow, Dion Waiters, and James Johnson.

We should try that: Making smart moves through the draft, free agents, and trades. There's an emphasis on defense and 3 point shooters. Fair enough - I lied - Butler was acquired in a trade where they traded away Whiteside and Josh Richardson. So no expensive free agents.
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#23 » by payitforward » Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:53 pm

And... here is Part 2 of the 9 ways:

https://theathletic.com/2072277/2020/09/22/open-the-wallet-on-draft-night-get-a-big-nine-ways-to-fix-the-wizards-part-ii/

(I thought there were only going to be these 2 parts, but... they don't seem to have gotten to 9 yet -- so who knows?)
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#24 » by pcbothwel » Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:03 pm

Ruzious wrote:Miami did it just by making good moves over the last few years in different ways:

Draft: 14th pick in 2017: Bam! They got a top 2 player from that draft (Tatum being the other). Traded the 2018 pick for Dragic - the on-court brains of the team. 13th pick in 2019 - they got their Herro (a top 5 player from that draft)

Undrafted free agents: Duncan Robinson and Nunn better. Previously, they signed Derrick Jones, Jr and developed him through the G League.

Expensive free agent: Jimmy Butler - the star presence they needed.

Trade: They got 3 and bruiserDefender Jae Crowder, respected Andre Iggy, and Solly Hill for name guys who just weren't good fits - Justice winslow, Dion Waiters, and James Johnson.

We should try that: Making smart moves through the draft, free agents, and trades. There's an emphasis on defense and 3 point shooters. Fair enough - I lied - Butler was acquired in a trade where they traded away Whiteside and Josh Richardson. So no expensive free agents.


This was my point to PIF and others. Im not against a rebuild, and I know this years Playoffs were out of sorts and therefore a team like Miami is a bit of an outlier... But im comparing the two squads and im not seeing the gap:
Wall & Beal = Dragic & Butler
Brown = Herro
Bertans = Robinson
Bonga = Crowder
Ish = Nunn
Bryant < Bam
Rui = Olynyk

Now, the obvious difference is with Bam vs Bryant... but we have #9 and the full MLE to fill that gap along with any additional growth from Bryant.
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#25 » by Ruzious » Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:25 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Miami did it just by making good moves over the last few years in different ways:

Draft: 14th pick in 2017: Bam! They got a top 2 player from that draft (Tatum being the other). Traded the 2018 pick for Dragic - the on-court brains of the team. 13th pick in 2019 - they got their Herro (a top 5 player from that draft)

Undrafted free agents: Duncan Robinson and Nunn better. Previously, they signed Derrick Jones, Jr and developed him through the G League.

Expensive free agent: Jimmy Butler - the star presence they needed.

Trade: They got 3 and bruiserDefender Jae Crowder, respected Andre Iggy, and Solly Hill for name guys who just weren't good fits - Justice winslow, Dion Waiters, and James Johnson.

We should try that: Making smart moves through the draft, free agents, and trades. There's an emphasis on defense and 3 point shooters. Fair enough - I lied - Butler was acquired in a trade where they traded away Whiteside and Josh Richardson. So no expensive free agents.


This was my point to PIF and others. Im not against a rebuild, and I know this years Playoffs were out of sorts and therefore a team like Miami is a bit of an outlier... But im comparing the two squads and im not seeing the gap:
Wall & Beal = Dragic & Butler
Brown = Herro
Bertans = Robinson
Bonga = Crowder
Ish = Nunn
Bryant < Bam
Rui = Olynyk

Now, the obvious difference is with Bam vs Bryant... but we have #9 and the full MLE to fill that gap along with any additional growth from Bryant.

Mainly defense, defense, and physical toughness. I think Miami also has a layer of maturity/mean streak that our players don't. Also, Brown is no Herro (don't tell Pif I said that). Defensively, we have Bonga and to be determined, and Bonga's still not really established. We might eventually get there, but it's going to take several real good moves.
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#26 » by pcbothwel » Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:54 pm

Ruzious wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Miami did it just by making good moves over the last few years in different ways:

Draft: 14th pick in 2017: Bam! They got a top 2 player from that draft (Tatum being the other). Traded the 2018 pick for Dragic - the on-court brains of the team. 13th pick in 2019 - they got their Herro (a top 5 player from that draft)

Undrafted free agents: Duncan Robinson and Nunn better. Previously, they signed Derrick Jones, Jr and developed him through the G League.

Expensive free agent: Jimmy Butler - the star presence they needed.

Trade: They got 3 and bruiserDefender Jae Crowder, respected Andre Iggy, and Solly Hill for name guys who just weren't good fits - Justice winslow, Dion Waiters, and James Johnson.

We should try that: Making smart moves through the draft, free agents, and trades. There's an emphasis on defense and 3 point shooters. Fair enough - I lied - Butler was acquired in a trade where they traded away Whiteside and Josh Richardson. So no expensive free agents.


This was my point to PIF and others. Im not against a rebuild, and I know this years Playoffs were out of sorts and therefore a team like Miami is a bit of an outlier... But im comparing the two squads and im not seeing the gap:
Wall & Beal = Dragic & Butler
Brown = Herro
Bertans = Robinson
Bonga = Crowder
Ish = Nunn
Bryant < Bam
Rui = Olynyk

Now, the obvious difference is with Bam vs Bryant... but we have #9 and the full MLE to fill that gap along with any additional growth from Bryant.

Mainly defense, defense, and physical toughness. I think Miami also has a layer of maturity/mean streak that our players don't. Also, Brown is no Herro (don't tell Pif I said that). Defensively, we have Bonga and to be determined, and Bonga's still not really established. We might eventually get there, but it's going to take several real good moves.


Oh... we are no Miami from a culture or Defensive standpoint, but that doesnt mean it cant happen.

Herro vs Brown: I cant believe how much Herro swagger has clouded people. I love the kid and think he will be quite good, but he is playing with the best Coaching staff and FO in the NBA while Brown is playing for one of the worst... and still brown is just as good.
Per possession: Brown averaged 30% more rebounds, 20% more assist, 30% less turnovers, while having double the steals.
Herro had a TS of 55% while Brown was at 52%.
Sorry, but to say Brown "Is no Herro" really overstates the difference if Herro is even better at all. And Brown's better overall game make me more hopeful.
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#27 » by doclinkin » Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:25 pm

Ruzious wrote:Mainly defense, defense, and physical toughness. I think Miami also has a layer of maturity/mean streak that our players don't.



And coaching and conditioning and culture. And coaching. And coaching. And front office. And hope. And ability to recruit.

But that said I would take Miami's roster over ours in each item listed above. Probably including Butler/Dragic over Beal/Wall on balance. Leastways as far as proven defense and 2 way play. Debatable but I think I give them the edge.

As for Brown. Brown's stats are generally against 2nd line players-- as a bench player on a losing team. Herro is starting as a rookie, on a playoff team. Nobody is gameplanning to stop Troy Brown. I like his efficiency and skill as a utility player, but the role is different. As soon as he proves he can shoot while guarded -- and you know, hit that shot-- he will be a useful player on any team in the league, maybe even a starter. Or if he can shut down opposing players, instead of getting blown by on dribble drives. Until then, he still has work to do. He's alright. Getting better. Progress leads to excellence. But do you think he would start for the Heat? I don't.
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#28 » by Ruzious » Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:39 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
This was my point to PIF and others. Im not against a rebuild, and I know this years Playoffs were out of sorts and therefore a team like Miami is a bit of an outlier... But im comparing the two squads and im not seeing the gap:
Wall & Beal = Dragic & Butler
Brown = Herro
Bertans = Robinson
Bonga = Crowder
Ish = Nunn
Bryant < Bam
Rui = Olynyk

Now, the obvious difference is with Bam vs Bryant... but we have #9 and the full MLE to fill that gap along with any additional growth from Bryant.

Mainly defense, defense, and physical toughness. I think Miami also has a layer of maturity/mean streak that our players don't. Also, Brown is no Herro (don't tell Pif I said that). Defensively, we have Bonga and to be determined, and Bonga's still not really established. We might eventually get there, but it's going to take several real good moves.


Oh... we are no Miami from a culture or Defensive standpoint, but that doesnt mean it cant happen.

Herro vs Brown: I cant believe how much Herro swagger has clouded people. I love the kid and think he will be quite good, but he is playing with the best Coaching staff and FO in the NBA while Brown is playing for one of the worst... and still brown is just as good.
Per possession: Brown averaged 30% more rebounds, 20% more assist, 30% less turnovers, while having double the steals.
Herro had a TS of 55% while Brown was at 52%.
Sorry, but to say Brown "Is no Herro" really overstates the difference if Herro is even better at all. And Brown's better overall game make me more hopeful.

Herro's on his way to being a great offensive player and a more than adequate defender (though he lacks good length). He's an outstanding shooter, excellent ball-handler and penetrator, can set up his teammates. He has good enough skills to play the point, can become an all-star 2, and is big enough to play the 3. He's not Doncic, but he can be at the next level below him. He had to go through rookie pains this season, but he's already dramatically improved since the beginning of the season. The Wiz don't have a young player like Herro - they just don't. No doubt, it's helped him to play with Dragic and Butler, and he's been coached well, but he's also a great talent. I think he'd succeed anywhere.
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#29 » by DCZards » Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:57 am

doclinkin wrote:We need a player who can defend whomever is torturing us on the perimeter, and also defend the 4 if we are playing a soft outside oriented Big like Bertans. We need guys who can put muscle on giant 3's like Giannis and KD, and fill passing lanes with their bodies. We need back door lob targets for Wall, for when Rui or Bryant float outside to try their face up game. This team needs an infusion of energy and competitive mindset. That's why I'm intrigued even with a player like KMart Jr as an Undrafted target. This is where teams miss on a Siakam or even Giannis, by failing to ID the competitive nature of a raw athletic if incomplete player.

doc, you do know that you're describing Precious Achiuwa. IJS :D
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#30 » by doclinkin » Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:32 am

DCZards wrote:
doclinkin wrote:We need a player who can defend whomever is torturing us on the perimeter, and also defend the 4 if we are playing a soft outside oriented Big like Bertans. We need guys who can put muscle on giant 3's like Giannis and KD, and fill passing lanes with their bodies. We need back door lob targets for Wall, for when Rui or Bryant float outside to try their face up game. This team needs an infusion of energy and competitive mindset. That's why I'm intrigued even with a player like KMart Jr as an Undrafted target. This is where teams miss on a Siakam or even Giannis, by failing to ID the competitive nature of a raw athletic if incomplete player.

doc, you do know that you're describing Precious Achiuwa. IJS :D



Um. Read the first part of the screed ^^^^^ where I wrote:

doclinkin wrote:SO:

1) High Energy Big. I like Okongwu if he falls to us. I am okay with trading up for him depending on the slot. I also on a trade down like Precious Achiuwa, Isaiah Stewart. Give me a raw athletic player who has shown a desire to do the dirty work, not scared to be posterized, big enough to make others back out and retry.


And you may have missed the draft thread page 66-67 where I talked up Achiuwa when I looked deeper into his stats. (Though he is an older freshman so may not develop as far as quickly).

But what I'm saying is we need both. A big on the interior who can play 4-5, and won't get lost on the show and recover, plus an athletic all-court free safety type who can shadow 1-4.
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#31 » by payitforward » Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:18 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Miami did it just by making good moves over the last few years in different ways:

Draft: 14th pick in 2017: Bam! They got a top 2 player from that draft (Tatum being the other). Traded the 2018 pick for Dragic - the on-court brains of the team. 13th pick in 2019 - they got their Herro (a top 5 player from that draft)

Undrafted free agents: Duncan Robinson and Nunn better. Previously, they signed Derrick Jones, Jr and developed him through the G League.

Expensive free agent: Jimmy Butler - the star presence they needed.

Trade: They got 3 and bruiserDefender Jae Crowder, respected Andre Iggy, and Solly Hill for name guys who just weren't good fits - Justice winslow, Dion Waiters, and James Johnson.

We should try that: Making smart moves through the draft, free agents, and trades. There's an emphasis on defense and 3 point shooters. Fair enough - I lied - Butler was acquired in a trade where they traded away Whiteside and Josh Richardson. So no expensive free agents.


This was my point to PIF and others. Im not against a rebuild, and I know this years Playoffs were out of sorts and therefore a team like Miami is a bit of an outlier... But im comparing the two squads and im not seeing the gap:
Wall & Beal = Dragic & Butler
Brown = Herro
Bertans = Robinson
Bonga = Crowder
Ish = Nunn
Bryant < Bam
Rui = Olynyk

Now, the obvious difference is with Bam vs Bryant... but we have #9 and the full MLE to fill that gap along with any additional growth from Bryant.

??
Miami went 44-29. We went 25-47. What were the 2 teams pre-bubble records? Of course, Wall didn't play, but...
Butler > Beal (by a lot not a little)
Crowder had a career-best 553 minutes. I love Bonga, but he wasn't at that level.
OTOH, Ish was better than Nunn, who started strong then dropped like a stone. He did provide volume scoring, which they needed, at only slightly below average efficiency.
Herro was really good for a rookie, especially at his age & being so heavily leaned on. He's going to be a terrific player. I don't see a lot of guys taken before him ending up near as good as it looks like he will. For sure he shot/scored better than Brown -- & since, as we know, it means nothing that, compared to Brown, Herro got 80% the number of defensive boards, one quarter as many offensive boards, 80% as many assists, & had 30% more turnovers while getting 45% as many steals, it is obvious that he is by far the superior player.)
Iguodala & Jones were both terrific as well. I'd love to sign Jones here (tho not for the full MLA? Not sure...). Miami FO is awfully smart, however, & they have no salary problems, so it's hard to see them letting him go.
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#32 » by pcbothwel » Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:57 pm

payitforward wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Miami did it just by making good moves over the last few years in different ways:

Draft: 14th pick in 2017: Bam! They got a top 2 player from that draft (Tatum being the other). Traded the 2018 pick for Dragic - the on-court brains of the team. 13th pick in 2019 - they got their Herro (a top 5 player from that draft)

Undrafted free agents: Duncan Robinson and Nunn better. Previously, they signed Derrick Jones, Jr and developed him through the G League.

Expensive free agent: Jimmy Butler - the star presence they needed.

Trade: They got 3 and bruiserDefender Jae Crowder, respected Andre Iggy, and Solly Hill for name guys who just weren't good fits - Justice winslow, Dion Waiters, and James Johnson.

We should try that: Making smart moves through the draft, free agents, and trades. There's an emphasis on defense and 3 point shooters. Fair enough - I lied - Butler was acquired in a trade where they traded away Whiteside and Josh Richardson. So no expensive free agents.


This was my point to PIF and others. Im not against a rebuild, and I know this years Playoffs were out of sorts and therefore a team like Miami is a bit of an outlier... But im comparing the two squads and im not seeing the gap:
Wall & Beal = Dragic & Butler
Brown = Herro
Bertans = Robinson
Bonga = Crowder
Ish = Nunn
Bryant < Bam
Rui = Olynyk

Now, the obvious difference is with Bam vs Bryant... but we have #9 and the full MLE to fill that gap along with any additional growth from Bryant.

??
Miami went 44-29. We went 25-47. What were the 2 teams pre-bubble records? Of course, Wall didn't play, but...
Butler > Beal (by a lot not a little)
Crowder had a career-best 553 minutes. I love Bonga, but he wasn't at that level.
OTOH, Ish was better than Nunn, who started strong then dropped like a stone. He did provide volume scoring, which they needed, at only slightly below average efficiency.
Herro was really good for a rookie, especially at his age & being so heavily leaned on. He's going to be a terrific player. I don't see a lot of guys taken before him ending up near as good as it looks like he will. For sure he shot/scored better than Brown -- & since, as we know, it means nothing that, compared to Brown, Herro got 80% the number of defensive boards, one quarter as many offensive boards, 80% as many assists, & had 30% more turnovers while getting 45% as many steals, it is obvious that he is by far the superior player.)
Iguodala & Jones were both terrific as well. I'd love to sign Jones here (tho not for the full MLA? Not sure...). Miami FO is awfully smart, however, & they have no salary problems, so it's hard to see them letting him go.



PIF... Miami was a 5th seed that won 60% of their games. In 16/17, we were a 4th seed that also won 60% of our games. My point was that you, and others, made it seem as if a Peak Wall/Beal Wiz led team was nowhere close to competing.
Again, I understand that Miami has a much better environment and the bubble was a bit wild... but we might not be as far away as we thought.
My comparison is not between the Heat and our team this year, but the Heat and our team next year. I feel quite confident that Rui, Bryant, Brown, and Bonga as a whole will be vastly improved.
And Beal next year is much closer to Butler than you allude too.

Butler plays almost 10% less minutes on a 35% less usage than Beal. Sure Butler is clearly the better defender and rebounder, but he is also freed up to be in that role by how little he is asked to contribute compared to most Super Stars.
Beal was clearly the better/more advanced scorer, but Butler is a savvy vet. Butler shot 60% of his FGA within 10 feet of the basket and had a 70% FT rate. Butler shot 30% outside of 10 feet... think about that for a second.

Beal is now entering his Prime, and now that he has fully expanded his game in regards to being a THE guy every possession he is on the court, Im curious to see how much better he'll be with the young guys a year older and Wall back.
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#33 » by Ruzious » Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:53 am

payitforward wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Miami did it just by making good moves over the last few years in different ways:

Draft: 14th pick in 2017: Bam! They got a top 2 player from that draft (Tatum being the other). Traded the 2018 pick for Dragic - the on-court brains of the team. 13th pick in 2019 - they got their Herro (a top 5 player from that draft)

Undrafted free agents: Duncan Robinson and Nunn better. Previously, they signed Derrick Jones, Jr and developed him through the G League.

Expensive free agent: Jimmy Butler - the star presence they needed.

Trade: They got 3 and bruiserDefender Jae Crowder, respected Andre Iggy, and Solly Hill for name guys who just weren't good fits - Justice winslow, Dion Waiters, and James Johnson.

We should try that: Making smart moves through the draft, free agents, and trades. There's an emphasis on defense and 3 point shooters. Fair enough - I lied - Butler was acquired in a trade where they traded away Whiteside and Josh Richardson. So no expensive free agents.


This was my point to PIF and others. Im not against a rebuild, and I know this years Playoffs were out of sorts and therefore a team like Miami is a bit of an outlier... But im comparing the two squads and im not seeing the gap:
Wall & Beal = Dragic & Butler
Brown = Herro
Bertans = Robinson
Bonga = Crowder
Ish = Nunn
Bryant < Bam
Rui = Olynyk

Now, the obvious difference is with Bam vs Bryant... but we have #9 and the full MLE to fill that gap along with any additional growth from Bryant.

??
Miami went 44-29. We went 25-47. What were the 2 teams pre-bubble records? Of course, Wall didn't play, but...
Butler > Beal (by a lot not a little)
Crowder had a career-best 553 minutes. I love Bonga, but he wasn't at that level.
OTOH, Ish was better than Nunn, who started strong then dropped like a stone. He did provide volume scoring, which they needed, at only slightly below average efficiency.
Herro was really good for a rookie, especially at his age & being so heavily leaned on. He's going to be a terrific player. I don't see a lot of guys taken before him ending up near as good as it looks like he will. For sure he shot/scored better than Brown -- & since, as we know, it means nothing that, compared to Brown, Herro got 80% the number of defensive boards, one quarter as many offensive boards, 80% as many assists, & had 30% more turnovers while getting 45% as many steals, it is obvious that he is by far the superior player.)
Iguodala & Jones were both terrific as well. I'd love to sign Jones here (tho not for the full MLA? Not sure...). Miami FO is awfully smart, however, & they have no salary problems, so it's hard to see them letting him go.

Pif, yes or no - Do you really think Brown is as good as Herro?
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#34 » by Kanyewest » Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:30 pm

Herro is better right than Brown. One shouldn't necessarily look at regular season numbers from the 2019-2020 regular season numbers as a lot of time has passed between the suspension of the season and the restart of the bubble, which is more than a NBA offseason; Nunn for instance made the all rookie team over Herro based on the voting from 2019-2020.
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#35 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:38 pm

doclinkin wrote:
DCZards wrote:
doclinkin wrote:We need a player who can defend whomever is torturing us on the perimeter, and also defend the 4 if we are playing a soft outside oriented Big like Bertans. We need guys who can put muscle on giant 3's like Giannis and KD, and fill passing lanes with their bodies. We need back door lob targets for Wall, for when Rui or Bryant float outside to try their face up game. This team needs an infusion of energy and competitive mindset. That's why I'm intrigued even with a player like KMart Jr as an Undrafted target. This is where teams miss on a Siakam or even Giannis, by failing to ID the competitive nature of a raw athletic if incomplete player.

doc, you do know that you're describing Precious Achiuwa. IJS :D

Um. Read the first part of the screed ^^^^^ where I wrote:
doclinkin wrote:SO:

1) High Energy Big. I like Okongwu if he falls to us. I am okay with trading up for him depending on the slot. I also on a trade down like Precious Achiuwa, Isaiah Stewart. Give me a raw athletic player who has shown a desire to do the dirty work, not scared to be posterized, big enough to make others back out and retry.

And you may have missed the draft thread page 66-67 where I talked up Achiuwa when I looked deeper into his stats. (Though he is an older freshman so may not develop as far as quickly).

But what I'm saying is we need both. A big on the interior who can play 4-5, and won't get lost on the show and recover, plus an athletic all-court free safety type who can shadow 1-4.

On a trade down, depending who all is available, I like Precious Achiuwa too. Of course, that's an easy statement to make, as it depends on which pick we trade down to & who's available.

At the same time, at 6'9" & @220 lbs, is he really a "4-5?" Maybe. If we trade down, & he looks like the best guy on the board -- pick him. At #9, OTOH, no.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#36 » by nate33 » Fri Sep 25, 2020 6:24 pm

My ideal offseason would be:

Draft Vassell at #9.
Draft Tillman at #39.
Trade Ish Smith for a TPE (perhaps Atlanta?)
Resign Bertans
Resign Napier
Sign Nerlens Noel with a portion of the MLE
Sign the best non-guaranteed, minimum salary 3rd string PG we could find (Jerian Grant?)

Lineup:
PG Wall/Napier
SG Beal/Brown
SF Bonga/Vassell
PF Hachimura/Bertans
C Bryant/Noel
End of Bench: Grant, Robinson, Mathews, Schofield, Wagner

It leaves us with the Ish TPE to make a Trade Deadline deal to absorb cap room from a team trying to generate max cap space in 2021
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#37 » by payitforward » Sat Sep 26, 2020 2:41 am

pcbothwel wrote:PIF... Miami was a 5th seed that won 60% of their games. In 16/17, we were a 4th seed that also won 60% of our games. My point was that you, and others, made it seem as if a Peak Wall/Beal Wiz led team was nowhere close to competing....

I'm not sure what you're driving at here, to tell the truth.

Unless I misremember (which is possible) we are going on our 3d year in a row in which you've said something along the lines of... "give me one more year of a Wall-Beal led team, I really believe it'll work this time, & if it doesn't..." etc. Well, obviously, you're going to get your wish. Likely for a few years to come. For your sake, for my sake, for the sake of every fan, I hope we thrive during these years. I don't mean compete for a title; we are not going to compete for a title, sorry.

Yes, 2016-17 was our best year. It was fun. We won 49 games. That was 4 years ago. In a way, the following year was equally impressive. We won 43 games even though we only had Wall for 1400 minutes.

But, "competing" means competing to win a title, which we were not doing then & are not doing any time soon. Plus those teams featured Otto at his peak, before his body did him in. & anyway, that team is gone.

pcbothwel wrote:My comparison is not between the Heat and our team this year, but the Heat and our team next year. I feel quite confident that Rui, Bryant, Brown, and Bonga as a whole will be vastly improved.

But, our team next year won't be playing in a league with the Heat from this year, will they?

Overall, our young guys should certainly be better. That's what you want from -- expect from -- young players. But, how about the young guys on the Heat get? Do they get to improve too? Tyler Herro, Derrick Jones, Bam Adebayo, Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn... won't they be "vastly improved" too?

pcbothwel wrote:And Beal next year is much closer to Butler than you allude too.
Butler plays almost 10% less minutes on a 35% less usage than Beal. Sure Butler is clearly the better defender and rebounder, but he is also freed up to be in that role by how little he is asked to contribute compared to most Super Stars.
Beal was clearly the better/more advanced scorer, but Butler is a savvy vet. Butler shot 60% of his FGA within 10 feet of the basket and had a 70% FT rate. Butler shot 30% outside of 10 feet... think about that for a second.

Who cares where he shot from? Is this the high jump? An Olympic floor routine? A beauty contest?

I love Bradley Beal. He's a really really good player -- & he seems to be a wonderful guy as well. & of course the better he plays the happier I am. But... Brad will be going into his 9th year in the league. He has never been in a class with Jimmy Butler, & he isn't going to be. John Wall is also not in a class with Butler.

Yet, you are right that Brad is a better scorer than Jimmy Butler. They posted virtually the same TS% (Butler's was marginally higher) -- & Brad did it on substantially higher usage. It's not ambiguous.

So? Compared to Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal gets 64% as many defensive boards, less than half the offensive boards, fewer assists, commits almost 50% more turnovers, blocks 63% as many shots, gets 2/3 the steals, & commits 45% more fouls. Nor is he an especially good defender, while Butler is an excellent one.

Bradley Beal is truly an outstanding player. But, he is not Jimmy Butler, & when you try to claim that he is somehow "close" to Butler's level you inevitably make him look worse not better. He doesn't need someone to blow up his balloon to make him look bigger.

Like you, I'm excited about next year. Like you, I think we will be a better team. Unlike you, however, I don't think we'll be a *good* team -- tho if we are I'll be happy to shout out how wrong I was.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#38 » by payitforward » Sat Sep 26, 2020 2:49 am

nate33 wrote:My ideal offseason would be:

Draft Vassell at #9.
Draft Tillman at #39.
Trade Ish Smith for a TPE (perhaps Atlanta?)
Resign Bertans
Resign Napier
Sign Nerlens Noel with a portion of the MLE
Sign the best non-guaranteed, minimum salary 3rd string PG we could find (Jerian Grant?)

Lineup:
PG Wall/Napier
SG Beal/Brown
SF Bonga/Vassell
PF Hachimura/Bertans
C Bryant/Noel
End of Bench: Grant, Robinson, Mathews, Schofield, Wagner

It leaves us with the Ish TPE to make a Trade Deadline deal to absorb cap room from a team trying to generate max cap space in 2021

It's good -- but I don't think Tillman will be on the board at #37 (that's where we pick). & anyway, since you don't include him in our lineup, maybe you agree? :)

Would you take Okongwu over Vassell? How about Haliburton?

Great idea to trade Ish & re-sign Napier. Should keep us under the tax, since he's likely to be cheaper than Ish is.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#39 » by nate33 » Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:28 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:My ideal offseason would be:

Draft Vassell at #9.
Draft Tillman at #39.
Trade Ish Smith for a TPE (perhaps Atlanta?)
Resign Bertans
Resign Napier
Sign Nerlens Noel with a portion of the MLE
Sign the best non-guaranteed, minimum salary 3rd string PG we could find (Jerian Grant?)

Lineup:
PG Wall/Napier
SG Beal/Brown
SF Bonga/Vassell
PF Hachimura/Bertans
C Bryant/Noel
End of Bench: Grant, Robinson, Mathews, Schofield, Wagner

It leaves us with the Ish TPE to make a Trade Deadline deal to absorb cap room from a team trying to generate max cap space in 2021

It's good -- but I don't think Tillman will be on the board at #37 (that's where we pick). & anyway, since you don't include him in our lineup, maybe you agree? :)

Would you take Okongwu over Vassell? How about Haliburton?

Great idea to trade Ish & re-sign Napier. Should keep us under the tax, since he's likely to be cheaper than Ish is.

LOL. Yes I forgot to include Tillman. Ha.

I'd probably take Okongwu over Vassell, but I'm leaning toward Vassell over Haliburton. I don't think Haliburton has the quickness, penetration ability and finishing skills to be a guy who can bend a defense. That makes him more of a complementary player, and generally, I like my complementary players to be bigger and more versatile defensively. He kinda reminds me of Satoransky.

If we ended up with Haliburton, I wouldn't be upset though. I think he'll have a good NBA career.
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Re: The follow-up: 9 ways to fix the Wizards 

Post#40 » by payitforward » Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:59 am

Little bit more on this, nate.

1. If we re-signed Napier, I wouldn't feel the need for that Jerian Grant-type 3d pg. Cheap, yes, but a dead-end player. I'd rather have one of the draft-class guards we've seen projected in R2 (Flynn, Alexander, Hinton, Mays, 1/2 others). Maybe even if we don't re-sign Napier, given Brown can log minutes behind Wall. Buy a pick.

2. I don't think there's any chance whatever of Admiral Schofield becoming a passable NBA player. Ok w/ me if we waive him & eat the salary.

3. If we could get a R2 pick for Wagner or Robinson... jump at it!
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.

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