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Deni Avdija

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Do you like this pick?

Yes
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73%
No
21
16%
Don't care
14
11%
 
Total votes: 129

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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1121 » by payitforward » Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:24 am

nate33 wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:...We used the 9th pick on the 12th best player in the draft so far....

I think if you properly account for Avdija's above-average defense, he is probably more like the 8-10th best player in the draft. That's pretty good with the 9th pick. (There are always one or two late picks that surprise to the upside, making it hard to outperform your draft position when picking high in the draft.)

Pretty good? It's outstanding.

People seem to imagine that it's possible to accurately rank how good players will be before you have to make a choice & pick a guy at your spot. No.

Something like 1/3 of all players picked either #1, #2, or #3 have been busts!

1 or 2 late picks that surprise to the upside? I guess it depends on what you mean by "late" -- if we mean picks outside the lottery, I'd be willing to bet that at least 1/2 of the best players in almost every draft are taken from #15 down. Try 2011, 2012, 2014 just for starters (picked those years w/o looking).

In fact, I can't find a single draft in the last dozen years where even 1/2 of the guys picked in the top 10 had good NBA careers! Did I miss one?

In Deni's case, at least 5 of the 8 guys picked before him have been worse -- a few of them have been much much worse!
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1122 » by Pistol King » Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:28 pm

I must say, I've been watching the game against GSW and Deni finally looked like a true secondary ball handler out there. Very encouraging.

I especially loved his play here at the 2:05' mark. Skipping between Klay and GPII, a little body hesitation, and then finding Gaff for an easy And1:
https://youtu.be/RQC3hUI9Ek0?t=125

The GSW announcers have complimented him during the entire game, they said it's impressive at his size and age how he handles the ball under pressure. When he handles the ball at the same usage as against GSW he suddenly looking like a different tier of talent. I still think WUJ can put the ball on his hands even more than that (I really don't see the upside of putting the ball in Ish's hands for so long when Deni who has a much higher ceiling can get some of those duties). Anyway, it seems to me that Deni is still far away from being a finished product. His handles basics are better than I expected, so there is a room for him to grow into a real facilitator and shot creator if he's willing to work hard on these parts of his game. I wish we'll hear his agent announcing that Deni is going to work in person with Drew Hanlen from the upcoming summer. Drew really seems the type of trainer that can take Deni's game to the next level.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1123 » by doclinkin » Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:25 pm

Pistol King wrote: I wish we'll hear his agent announcing that Deni is going to work in person with Drew Hanlen from the upcoming summer. Drew really seems the type of trainer that can take Deni's game to the next level.


Not unlikely if Brad re-signs here. Brad is a Hanlen client. Though if he is also in charge of Brad's jumpshot I dunno, since that has gotten worse over time...
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1124 » by dckingsfan » Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:27 pm

doclinkin wrote:
Pistol King wrote: I wish we'll hear his agent announcing that Deni is going to work in person with Drew Hanlen from the upcoming summer. Drew really seems the type of trainer that can take Deni's game to the next level.


Not unlikely if Brad re-signs here. Brad is a Hanlen client. Though if he is also in charge of Brad's jumpshot I dunno, since that has gotten worse over time...

I would definitely take Beal's handles on Deni :)
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1125 » by nate33 » Wed Mar 30, 2022 1:41 pm

Since Kuzma has been out of the lineup (6 games so far), Avdija has been much more aggressive on offense. Over that stretch, his per 36 minute numbers are:

17.4 points
8.6 rebounds
4.3 assists
1.0 steals
1.8 turnovers
.552 TS%
.382 3P%
(29.4 actual minutes per game)


And since they benched Neto and put in Sato, Avdija has gotten even more opportunities to handle the ball and get into a rhythm. In those 3 games, his per 36 numbers are:

19.9 points
10.2 rebounds
4.5 assists
0.8 steals
3.2 turnovers
.651 TS%
.500 3P%
(29.5 actual minutes per game)

It's still a small sample size, but we are getting a sense of what Avdija might look like once they take the training wheels off and give him a more active role in the offense. The 3-point shooting is key. If he can shoot 37% next year, he will be a very helpful player.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1126 » by tontoz » Sat Apr 2, 2022 11:37 pm

When people were talking about how much it would cost to resign kuzma my first thought was why worry about it now? By the time he becomes a free agent things might look a lot different. We might have better options at that time.

Deni improving is just one of several things that could happen that would change the landscape.

Kuzma is on a reasonable contract now so let's just count that as a positive.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1127 » by arusinov » Sun Apr 3, 2022 8:04 am

Rui, Deni and Corey productivity with Beal and Kuz out:

It's said that when stars are out, the role players or youngsters may produce numbers... but usually it will mean that as their minutes per game and USG% go up - their efficiency goes down

Now with Beal and Kuz out (but KP still playing by the way) the three last years lottery picks got their chance to show up. So did they produce numbers and what happened with their efficiency?

Corey

season: 23.0 MIN , 14.1 USG% - 7.9 PTS, 2.6 RBS, 1.1 AST on 57.6 TS%

last 10 games: 33.5 MIN , 13.5 USG% - 11.9 PTS, 2.1 RBS, 1.5 AST on 61.8 TS%

last 5 games: 35.6 MIN , 13.2 USG% - 11.8 PTS, 1.8 RBS, 1.6 AST on 59.4 TS%

Deni

season: 23.8 MIN , 15.5 USG% - 8.1 PTS, 5.2 RBS, 1.9 AST on 53.9 TS%

last 10 games: 28.1 MIN , 20.2 USG% - 13.0 PTS, 6.5 RBS, 3.2 AST on 59.4 TS%

last 5 games: 28.1 MIN , 21.4 USG% - 14.2 PTS, 7.4 RBS, 3.8 AST on 60.2 TS%

Rui

season: 21.3 MIN , 20.5 USG% - 10.9 PTS, 3.6 RBS, 1.2 AST on 59.5 TS%

last 10 games: 26.5 MIN , 21.0 USG% - 13.5 PTS, 5.0 RBS, 1.6 AST on 57.6 TS%

last 5 games: 27.8 MIN , 20.9 USG% - 15.2 PTS, 5.0 RBS, 2.0 AST on 62.3 TS%


So, they did provided good numbers almost across the board - and the efficiency went up too.

Sure one way to look at it is to just ignore saying that end of the season is anyway the season's garbage time, but other way to look at it is acknowledge that young players can't develop and can't produce when not given minutes or/and significant role on offense
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1128 » by nate33 » Sun Apr 3, 2022 1:27 pm

arusinov wrote:Rui, Deni and Corey productivity with Beal and Kuz out:

It's said that when stars are out, the role players or youngsters may produce numbers... but usually it will mean that as their minutes per game and USG% go up - their efficiency goes down

Now with Beal and Kuz out (but KP still playing by the way) the three last years lottery picks got their chance to show up. So did they produce numbers and what happened with their efficiency?

Corey

season: 23.0 MIN , 14.1 USG% - 7.9 PTS, 2.6 RBS, 1.1 AST on 57.6 TS%

last 10 games: 33.5 MIN , 13.5 USG% - 11.9 PTS, 2.1 RBS, 1.5 AST on 61.8 TS%

last 5 games: 35.6 MIN , 13.2 USG% - 11.8 PTS, 1.8 RBS, 1.6 AST on 59.4 TS%

Deni

season: 23.8 MIN , 15.5 USG% - 8.1 PTS, 5.2 RBS, 1.9 AST on 53.9 TS%

last 10 games: 28.1 MIN , 20.2 USG% - 13.0 PTS, 6.5 RBS, 3.2 AST on 59.4 TS%

last 5 games: 28.1 MIN , 21.4 USG% - 14.2 PTS, 7.4 RBS, 3.8 AST on 60.2 TS%

Rui

season: 21.3 MIN , 20.5 USG% - 10.9 PTS, 3.6 RBS, 1.2 AST on 59.5 TS%

last 10 games: 26.5 MIN , 21.0 USG% - 13.5 PTS, 5.0 RBS, 1.6 AST on 57.6 TS%

last 5 games: 27.8 MIN , 20.9 USG% - 15.2 PTS, 5.0 RBS, 2.0 AST on 62.3 TS%


So, they did provided good numbers almost across the board - and the efficiency went up too.

Sure one way to look at it is to just ignore saying that end of the season is anyway the season's garbage time, but other way to look at it is acknowledge that young players can't develop and can't produce when not given minutes or/and significant role on offense

When Beal went down, Wes Jr. installed the motion offense and everyone got more touches, with Kuzma being assigned the role of primary offensive threat and bail-out shot creator. Even then, there was modest improvement among our role players as they got more involved, but the shot efficiency just wasn't there. The only guy who made a real step up in shooting efficiency was Kispert, and I think that was less about Beal/Kuzma and more about him just adjusting to the speed of the NBA game. The problem was that Kuzma wasn't particularly efficient, and though he tried to get others involved, he was too turnover prone to be a hub of the offense.

But when Porzingis replaced Kuzma, everything changed. Putting Porzingis in the high post allowed him to be involved with every step of the offense. He sets all the screens, and with every screen, he is a threat to roll or pop. It put a lot more strain on opposing defenses as they had to make difficult defensive decisions multiple times on every possession. The key with Porzingis is that, with his height and midrange shooting touch, he just can't be guarded by some 6-7 forward. Defenses are being penalized for switching those high screens, so either they avoid switching, which allows guys like Deni, Sato and Ish to gain the advantage as the ball handler, or they do switch, which allows Porzingis to post up a smaller player. And if they bring double team help, Porzingis is tall enough to not get flustered so he can make the correct pass leading to Kispert, Rui and KCP getting wide open looks from the corner.

The key to everything is Porzingis. He is switch-proof and that has made all the difference.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1129 » by WallToWall » Fri Apr 8, 2022 6:10 am

Avdija has played in every game so far, with only a couple games left. Ironman.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1130 » by FAH1223 » Fri Apr 8, 2022 6:55 am

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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1131 » by dckingsfan » Fri Apr 8, 2022 4:42 pm

WallToWall wrote:Avdija has played in every game so far, with only a couple games left. Ironman.

82/82 would be nice. He has gotten better year over year, so there is some hope there. Although these are meaningless games, they do give us a glimpse of what we might see in the future.

First, he is a SF not a PF. Second, it looks like he could develop the play making skills to be the third option (his assists have gone up but not his TOs as a ratio with a higher usage).

But... he definitely will need to improve the 3 point shooting. And although his defense is solid, it needs to improve as well even when he is putting in more effort on the offensive end of the floor.

To be honest, I was hoping (fanatically) that he would take a bigger jump this year. But if he takes the same jump next year - he will be a very solid rotational player. Fingers and toes crossed.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1132 » by CntOutSmrtCrazy » Fri Apr 8, 2022 5:28 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
WallToWall wrote:Avdija has played in every game so far, with only a couple games left. Ironman.

82/82 would be nice. He has gotten better year over year, so there is some hope there. Although these are meaningless games, they do give us a glimpse of what we might see in the future.

First, he is a SF not a PF. Second, it looks like he could develop the play making skills to be the third option (his assists have gone up but not his TOs as a ratio with a higher usage).

But... he definitely will need to improve the 3 point shooting. And although his defense is solid, it needs to improve as well even when he is putting in more effort on the offensive end of the floor.

To be honest, I was hoping (fanatically) that he would take a bigger jump this year. But if he takes the same jump next year - he will be a very solid rotational player. Fingers and toes crossed.


Once the season started, how high of expectations could you have had given how the team was using him? I agree his three needs to be more consistent, but outside of that the vast majority of the season he was given very few opportunities to prove himself on the offensive end with Beal, Harrell, Kuzma, Dinwiddie, KCP, Neto, all getting the veteran benefit of the doubt. He finally, over the last 7 or 8 games, has had the training wheels taken off as nate mentioned.

He solidified his place in the rotation with his defense, where fortunately ,you don't need to be given the ball to make an impact.

In regards to defense, he's not perfect, but he's basically the only player other than maybe Gafford to at least try every night on that end while veterans have consistently dogged it. Certainly he can improve, but he's shown many times throughout the season that he can play elite defense, has good instincts, and has the right tools needed to be a very good defender. He's basically assigned to the best offensive player every night that is a 1 through 4 when he's in the game, which I think says a lot given he has about a season and a half of seasoning in the NBA.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1133 » by NatP4 » Fri Apr 8, 2022 5:58 pm

He really just needs that 3pt shot to fall a bit more, which we all know it eventually will. He’s still just 21. Once that happens, he’s a 15-8-3 guy that also gets steals and blocks and can play the 3 or 4 position. Deni is a plus on both ends of the court.

And again, only 21, won’t turn 22 until middle of next season. There is still a ton of room for growth. When it’s all said and done, I expect him to be a highly effective offensive player that can average an efficient 18 points and be a secondary playmaker that puts up 4-5 assists per game, ontop of really really good defense. Combine that with high basketball IQ and effort level/competitiveness.

He was a really good pick. He was never on my personal radar on draft night. Still probably would’ve picked Haliburton, but Tommy deserves credit. Avdija is a really good young player with a ton of versatility, and room to grow in a million different directions. I think he’ll probably be a top 50 player by the time he’s 23. Wiz should absolutely try to extend him early, before his jumpshot starts to fall.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1134 » by badinage » Fri Apr 8, 2022 8:30 pm

I love the kid. Love the fire, love the effort on D, love the new assertiveness, love the improving playmaking, love the 3 ball that’s beginning to go down, love the scrappiness, love the dimension the offense has when he’s looking to push pace, love the passing, love the rebounding, love the likability, love the puppy-young age and the promise of more and better.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1135 » by Dolevi » Fri Apr 8, 2022 10:10 pm

Impressive he played all games so far.
Targets for next season for him need to be his 3FG percentages, improving ball handling, finishing in the rim plus go to the gym a little bit - and he can be really good. If he will be given a bigger role in offense as a playmaker who runs the P&R, plus the ball in his hands regulary, that's where he's comfortable. Not in the corner. Still, it depends how and if his confidence will rise (and how/ if will his mental state improve), how hard he'll work, how much players and staff will trust him, how he will performs in critical games (not garbage like now). I hope they will give him a bigger role next year, more minutes, more touches with the ball.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1136 » by Ruzious » Fri Apr 8, 2022 10:12 pm

WallToWall wrote:Avdija has played in every game so far, with only a couple games left. Ironman.

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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1137 » by CntOutSmrtCrazy » Fri Apr 8, 2022 10:26 pm

Dolevi wrote:Impressive he played all games so far.
Targets for next season for him need to be his 3FG percentages, improving ball handling, finishing in the rim plus go to the gym a little bit - and he can be really good. If he will be given a bigger role in offense as a playmaker who runs the P&R, plus the ball in his hands regulary, that's where he's comfortable. Not in the corner. Still, it depends how and if his confidence will rise (and how/ if will his mental state improve), how hard he'll work, how much players and staff will trust him, how he will performs in critical games (not garbage like now). I hope they will give him a bigger role next year, more minutes, more touches with the ball.


This is critical, they can't sit him on the three point line like he has done the vast majority of the season. Have to let him be at the very least the secondary ballhandler whatever unit he is in.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1138 » by prime1time » Sat Apr 9, 2022 12:46 pm

Ultimately, the question for Avdija isn't whether or not he can be a secondary creator, he has already shown that he can. But can he be a secondary creator on a genuine contender? It's one thing to be a secondary creator on a bad team, but it's a completely different thing to be a secondary creator on a team with talent. Even in this thread, there are takes that are devoid of reality. We are looking for a solid starting PG. That player will have significant usage. We also have Beal and Porzingis. Both players that will have high usage. After that we have Kuzma, Hachimura and Kispert. All of whom are still trying to get better and improve their game. So just being realistic, in what world will Avdija's role expand next year?

The best-case scenario for the draft lottery is that we add a top 4 pick. If that happens, Avdija's role will shrink even more. Avdija, needs to drastically improve if he's going to be a secondary creator on a playoff team. From ball handling to passing, to shooting and much more. And even if he does that, I don't know if it will be enough. The Wizards aren't close to genuinely contending. And the best way for us to close that gap is to add talent. This will be a very fascinating off-season for Sheppard. I wouldn't be surprised too see if trade some of our young players, for a star. The good news is that Avdija, Kispert, Hachimura and Kuzma have all shown progress this year.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1139 » by prime1time » Sat Apr 9, 2022 12:56 pm

It is also importnat to point out the interrelatedness of team buildling. A common refrain I see is that Deni needs to have the ball in his hands more. Well, that is impacted by us signing/acquiring a PG who is a threat from the outside. How many contenders have secondary creators that genuinely get opportunities to shine? Only those, who have the ability to space the floor. If as soon as the PG gives up the ball, his defender sinks into the lane, then more often than not, you will get a situation where the PG dominates the ball. This is what happened with Russ and Wall. At the same time, how many PG's can provide outside shooting, solid defense and all the other small things that a pg does? Looking at Deni's growth in a vacuum is easy. You just ask, "what is good for Deni's growth" and then conclude that the Wizards should do that. The reality, however, is more complicated. We need to filter Deni's growth through the joint lens of what is good for Avdija and what is good for the Wizards. Both things must be accounted for when talking about his future development. This is why I think a trade is not just possible, but also beneficial, for both parties.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#1140 » by payitforward » Sat Apr 9, 2022 2:11 pm

prime1time wrote:...This will be a very fascinating off-season for Sheppard. I wouldn't be surprised to see us trade some of our young players for a star....

Do you have something particular in mind. It's hard for me to see potential trade value in any combination of Rui, Deni, Kispert, our R1 pick &/or Kuzma that would bring back a top tier player.

This should probably go in the offseason plan thread....
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