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Deni Avdija

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Do you like this pick?

Yes
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74%
No
11
16%
Don't care
7
10%
 
Total votes: 68

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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#201 » by AZNKidd » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:01 pm

Ruzious wrote:
Frichuela wrote:
nate33 wrote:True, but they're All-Star caliber talents. Avdija doesn't need to be MVP for it to be a good pick.


This.

And let me add to the list the following other euro-players who have been all-stars:

Vlade Divac (all-star 2001)
Andrei Kirilenko (all-star 2004)
Zydrunas Ilgauskas (all-star 2003,2005)
Mehmet Okur (all-star 2007)
Joakim Noah (all-star 2013,2014)
Rudy Gobert (all-star 2020)
Nikola Vucevic (all-star 2019)
Domantas Sabonis (all-star 2020)

And add to the list others who IMO were (at minimum) solid NBA starters: the legend Drazen Petrovic (all-star talent), Sarunas Marciulionis, Hedo Turkoglu.


I think Deni has the potential to be a solid NBA starter, and if the shooting comes along, a one/two time all-star.

If he's Hedo with more edge to his game on defense - Tommy did good.


Turkey Glue would have fit right in on Wiz50 days.

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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#202 » by Meliorus » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:07 pm

I can't really see how Avdija accomplished anywhere as much as Hedo in the EuroLeague, which is why I see Hezonja as a better situation comparison.

"He averaged 8.4 points on 58 percent shooting in 50 games in the EuroLeague. Türkoğlu helped the team reach the 2000 EuroLeague Final Four, averaging 13.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.7 assists, in 22 games."

So It seems like Turkoglu was a starter in EuroLeague with much better percentages than Deni. Someone can confirm or deny with more stats though.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#203 » by Ruzious » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:19 pm

Meliorus wrote:I can't really see how Avdija accomplished anywhere as much as Hedo in the EuroLeague, which is why I see Hezonja as a better situation comparison.

"He averaged 8.4 points on 58 percent shooting in 50 games in the EuroLeague. Türkoğlu helped the team reach the 2000 EuroLeague Final Four, averaging 13.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.7 assists, in 22 games."

So It seems like Turkoglu was a starter in EuroLeague with much better percentages than Deni. Someone can confirm or deny with more stats though.

You're seriously arguing about EuroLeague stats from over 20 years ago?
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#204 » by pcbothwel » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:24 pm

NatP4 wrote:
nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:If he’s a 16-6-3 type of player that gets his 3pt% around 35% or so and plays solid team defense, that’s a win to me.

I haven’t seen this comparison anywhere, but I can see a little Nic Batum in there.

They're very different physically - Batum is much longer and more wiry. But I could see the production being fairly similar - particularly the fact that they're both low key good play-makers who could post surprisingly high assist rates relative to their usage.

I hope Avdija will be a better scorer than Batum though. And he probably won't be as good defensively.


True, not a physical comparison, more about production/role. Secondary ball handler/playmaker, decent scorer/shooter, good team defender. Smart player good effort.

I hope Avdija amounts to more, but I would not be too disappointed with a Batum level impact.


I understand your point, but Deni has a competitiveness and physicality that Batum as NEVER shown.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#205 » by tontoz » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:27 pm

Meliorus wrote:I can't really see how Avdija accomplished anywhere as much as Hedo in the EuroLeague, which is why I see Hezonja as a better situation comparison.

"He averaged 8.4 points on 58 percent shooting in 50 games in the EuroLeague. Türkoğlu helped the team reach the 2000 EuroLeague Final Four, averaging 13.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.7 assists, in 22 games."

So It seems like Turkoglu was a starter in EuroLeague with much better percentages than Deni. Someone can confirm or deny with more stats though.


Hedo was 21 when he played in the Euroleague Final 4 so that isn't a valid comparison. How did Hedo do at 19?
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#206 » by Shoe » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:32 pm

Meliorus wrote:
nate33 wrote:
AZNKidd wrote:But he ain't no Luka. History has shown that offensive talents from Europe literally comes once every twenty year--Drik in 1998 and Luka in 2018.

Nikola Jokic
Pau Gasol
Tony Parker
Arvydas Sabonis
Peja Stojakovic
Kristaps Porzingis
Toni Kukoc
Detlef Schrempf
Goran Dragic
Marc Gasol
Rik Smits
Manu Ginobili (if you consider him Italian)



How many of these guys (even the big men) shot 57% from the free throw?


10/18 free throws.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#207 » by DCZards » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:38 pm

Shoe wrote:
Meliorus wrote:
How many of these guys (even the big men) shot 57% from the free throw?


10/18 free throws.

Makes that 57% from the line kinda meaningless, doesn't it. :D
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#208 » by Ed Wood » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:50 pm

That specific sample isn't large enough to inspire confidence, but he hasn't been a good free throw shooter across a significantly larger sample if you aggregate across years and the different competitions he's participated in.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#209 » by WizarDynasty » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:52 pm

Ed Wood wrote:That specific sample isn't large enough to inspire confidence, but he hasn't been a good free throw shooter across a significantly larger sample if you aggregate across years and the different competitions he's participated in.

Paul Pierce wasn't a good free throw shooter at first either in his first year only 60% first year and 71% second year. 73% third year in college. There games over la alot. 41% from field in his first college year then he jumped to 48% in his second college yaar. I expect that huge jump for Deni as well. Let's consider his first NBA year comparable to Paul Pierce second college year.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#210 » by NatP4 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:58 pm

Ed Wood wrote:That specific sample isn't large enough to inspire confidence, but he hasn't been a good free throw shooter across a significantly larger sample if you aggregate across years and the different competitions he's participated in.


This is true. He has been bad at every level for an extended amount of time, but it’s easily fixable. Free throw shooting can always be improved, people just use it to predict 3pt shooting.

The 35% from 3 on a decent sample size in the BSL is what makes me feel okay about his shooting potential.

Brown Jr only shot 29% from 3 in college, but from the eye test, his shot looked good. He finished this last season at 34% from 3 on 2.6 attempts per game. I’m not too worried about either of them or Rui for that matter. I think all of them will be atleast average 3pt shooters.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#211 » by nate33 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:01 pm

Ed Wood wrote:That specific sample isn't large enough to inspire confidence, but he hasn't been a good free throw shooter across a significantly larger sample if you aggregate across years and the different competitions he's participated in.

I'm only slightly worried about the poor FT shooting. The sample size is small and he is very young. When I see his shooting form, I'm pretty reassured that his shot isn't broken.

I don't think he'll settle in as an 88% FT shooter or anything, but I'm fairly confident he'll eventually shoot in the mid 70's, which is good enough. There are plenty of bad shooters as freshmen in college who panned out to be good enough in the NBA. It's usually only the centers with broken shot form that never figure out the free throw mechanics.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#212 » by Meliorus » Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:08 pm

DCZards wrote:
Shoe wrote:
Meliorus wrote:
How many of these guys (even the big men) shot 57% from the free throw?


10/18 free throws.

Makes that 57% from the line kinda meaningless, doesn't it. :D


'I didn’t get down to game level in evaluating him. When it comes to shooting, a 5-6 game sample is too small to reach a conclusion one way or another, and it’s even too small to determine a trend. In Avdija’s case, there’s ample evidence over larger and more meaningful sample size to question his shooting. I’m looking at 31% from 3pt range on 316 career attempts without a trend towards significant improvement, and 56% shooting on 198 FT attempts without a trend towards significant improvement.

My guess is that he won’t be a significant contributor in his first year. I don’t think they have sufficient time to improve his shooting in the shortened offseason so I anticipate them bringing him off the bench at first and ramping up his playing time as the season goes on."

Here's the sample size, from Kevin Broom. I'm also not concerned about the free-throw shooting, that will go to the mid 70's, I just don't know where the 3 point % will end up, and how much volume and kinds of 3's he can take.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#213 » by doclinkin » Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:12 pm

nate33 wrote:
Ed Wood wrote:That specific sample isn't large enough to inspire confidence, but he hasn't been a good free throw shooter across a significantly larger sample if you aggregate across years and the different competitions he's participated in.

I'm only slightly worried about the poor FT shooting. The sample size is small and he is very young. When I see his shooting form, I'm pretty reassured that his shot isn't broken.

I don't think he'll settle in as an 88% FT shooter or anything, but I'm fairly confident he'll eventually shoot in the mid 70's, which is good enough. There are plenty of bad shooters as freshmen in college who panned out to be good enough in the NBA. It's usually only the centers with broken shot form that never figure out the free throw mechanics.


Right, bigs who cannot put enough arc under their shot to get friendly bounces. Or guys with huge hands for which the usual mechanics don't work. The concern for me was that his poor shooting was noted to affect the rest of his game:

As he works closely with highly regarded Maccabi assistant Veljko Perovic, here are Avdija's greatest improvement areas:

1. Finishing

Avdija struggled mightily around the rim all tournament, to the point where he appeared to develop a case of the yips for stretches, blowing wide-open right-hand layups or air-balling short floaters. He lacks a degree of physicality as a finisher, too often shying away from contact and lacking versatility in his technique. Predominantly a one-leg jumper, Avdija must find more ways to keep the defense guessing while utilizing his size and strength, in order to benefit in the long run.

2. Shooting consistency

For all the worthy praise about his natural touch, the percentages still speak for themselves. His free throw issues were a problem all tournament, so much so that he started staying after games for extra reps. He would avoid contact around the rim with panic shot fakes in part because of his ineffectiveness at the free throw line. For a player who generally plays with confidence, the mental aspect of his free throw woes is noteworthy.


It's not going to be easier to finish in the NBA. Players like to put a rookie in their place. Refs won't help you out until you have earned it. And if teams realize he gets anxious at the line that becomes an extra weapon. He plays best with confidence, so hopefully he gets enough success early that confidence doesn't become an additional hurdle. The real concern for me was this:

5. Inconsistent energy

Part of this is energy conservation while playing a big role, but Avdija walks on the floor too often, sometimes not even crossing the half-court line (a pet peeve among NBA scouts). He has occasional dips in intensity defensively, as well. He loves to point and switch assignments and doesn't always want to leave the paint to contest jumpers.


This year is going to be a marathon sprint. Packing in back to backs and 72 games to finish before the Olympics, while occasionally squeezing the schedule when games are postponed for quarantine issues, or teams are short handed. If he is sandbagging at the Euro level where they only play twice a week, he is going to be huffing and panting trying to keep up with the faster quicker NBA pace, and the fast break pace and space era where we have tacked on an additional 20 possessions a game since the bang and bump half court era.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#214 » by doclinkin » Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:17 pm

Paul Pierce kneebend his Pierce and lower back flexed a kneebend Pierce. If this kneebend could 9'2"" a reacharound then his kneebend could bowleg a reach bend. The problem is without a flexible Paul, the Pierce a kneebend can't Paul a reach foot two. You can see it from the high eyebrow extension above the flexed elbow of his Paul that the Pierce of this kneebend will kneebend a knee. Is all I'm saying.

:clown:
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#215 » by WizarDynasty » Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:23 pm

doclinkin wrote:Paul Pierce kneebend his Pierce and lower back flexed a kneebend Pierce. If this kneebend could 9'2"" a reacharound then his kneebend could bowleg a reach bend. The problem is without a flexible Paul, the Pierce a kneebend can't Paul a reach foot two. You can see it from the high eyebrow extension above the flexed elbow of his Paul that the Pierce of this kneebend will kneebend a knee. Is all I'm saying.

:clown:



Yep makes perfect sense. Deni is our future Paul Pierce. Just because he is from Europe doesn't mean he plays like a european. He has alot of Paul Pierce in his game.
Build your team with five shooters using Paul Pierce Form deeply bent hips and lower back arch at same time. before rising into shot. Elbow not pointing to the ground! } Avdija=young Paul Pierce
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#216 » by payitforward » Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:38 pm

DCZards wrote:
doclinkin wrote:I mean if you are going to have a jones for international players, start scouting Nigeria. They had like a dozen players represented in this years draft. 21 in the league. (Okay and Serbia and Croatia, fine, they are tough and skilled and well trained).

Yep...Nigerian big men are starting to rule. But you don’t need to go to Nigeria to find them. Most of them are already here in the US.

Just need to have Tommy S. hang out at Fela’s “Shrine” nightclub in Harlem NY.

You get around, Zards -- but I don't think I've seen you there, have I?
:)
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#217 » by payitforward » Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:53 pm

wall_glizzy wrote:...Anyway the thing about [wanting] Isaiah Stewart. Precious. Xavier Tillman. Daniel Oturu. Even Vernon Carey is that you have to pick one. Maybe two. It's one thing to name a bunch of potential rim protectors, and another entirely to push your chips in on one of them and hit big. Especially with that group, the draft's second-tier bigs, all of whom have steep uphill battles in one or more skill/ability areas before transcending the ranks of replacement-level bigs that are available every offseason. I'd be shocked if more than one of those guys develops to the point that he - or someone of nearly the same profile - can't be had around the minimum four years from now. Compare that to the premium now placed on perimeter players - particularly those with any sort of play-making ability - and it's pretty clear what sorts of players are likely to out-perform their rookie and - hopefully - subsequent contracts (or bust completely, of course, but the name of the game is signing players to deals which provide surplus value; the players doing that to the greatest extent are almost universal play-making wings). I think we took the right shot.

This is very well thought out, wall.... But, because the role of chance/risk is the same at any position from pg > c, you have to account for the fact that the one high pick spent on deni brings more risk than a couple of lower picks used to pick, e.g. both Achiuwa & Tillman.

One thing more: the premium on perimeter players doesn't mean that those guys are more likely to out-perform their rookie contracts than guys at other positions. The "premium" does the job of evening that out.

Moreover, I'm not sure the draft really reflects that premium on perimeter players, does it? Top 10 included Wiseman, Williams, Okongwu, Toppin & Smith. For that matter, I'm not sure I'd count Okoro as a "perimeter player." (OTOH, 14 of the next 20 do qualify...).
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#218 » by Shoe » Fri Nov 20, 2020 6:16 pm

Deni wearing #44. Usually reserved for bigs but the few playmakers who did wear it for their career is good company - Jerry West, Paul Westphal, Pete Maravich
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#219 » by DCZards » Fri Nov 20, 2020 6:35 pm

I just participated in a Zoom Meet-and-Greet with Deni that the Wizards held for season ticket holders. It was hosted by Zards radio voice Dave Johnson.

Here’s a brief summary of some of Deni's responses:

1. He gets his competitive spirit from his father, a former basketball star, and his mother, a track star.

2. He ran track as a youth and credits that for his leg strength and speed getting up and down the court.

3. Deni also played organized soccer for 4 years, which he believes has helped him with his footwork as a basketball player.

4. He believes that his best assets are his unselfishness, high basketball IQ and the speed he possesses for his size. Getting a rebound and using his foot speed to initiate the break is another strength, he said.

5. Deni wants to “improve on everything,” including mentally, and claims that he has the work ethic to do just that.

6. He’s excited to play with Wall and Beal and to be part of helping to create scoring opportunities for them.
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Re: Deni Avdija 

Post#220 » by DCZards » Fri Nov 20, 2020 6:50 pm

payitforward wrote:
DCZards wrote:
doclinkin wrote:I mean if you are going to have a jones for international players, start scouting Nigeria. They had like a dozen players represented in this years draft. 21 in the league. (Okay and Serbia and Croatia, fine, they are tough and skilled and well trained).

Yep...Nigerian big men are starting to rule. But you don’t need to go to Nigeria to find them. Most of them are already here in the US.

Just need to have Tommy S. hang out at Fela’s “Shrine” nightclub in Harlem NY.

You get around, Zards -- but I don't think I've seen you there, have I?
:)

Been to the "The Shrine" a couple of times. Last time was around 4 years ago.

You know the place, PIF?

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