2021 Depth Chart

[arusinov]

Still making my point for me. Against one guy, a 6'6" forward who realized he is not good enough to be an NBA draft pick and returned to school, Deni had success. Nice. However, he is going to be facing players who are consistently better than even the SEC defensive player of the year.

Taking your example of 5-7 players from a strong conference being drafted, compare and contrast with how many of few players are recruited for NBA rosters from the Israel Premier league.

There was a guy I wanted years ago who played for Maccabi I think. I'm forgetting his name. I wanted that dude. I'll have to find it.

https://youtu.be/kd8rBhe0wvU?t=41

Michael Young #2 Galil Gilboa - 2× Third-team All-ACC (2016, 2017) & Akil Mitchell #25 Galil Gilboa - Third-team All-ACC (2013), ACC All-Defensive Team (2014)

https://youtu.be/kd8rBhe0wvU?t=415

https://youtu.be/kd8rBhe0wvU?t=241

Akil Mitchell #25 Galil Gilboa

https://youtu.be/kd8rBhe0wvU?t=235

Troy Caupain #1 Hapoel Holon - First-team All-AAC (2016), Second-team All-AAC (2017)

https://youtu.be/kd8rBhe0wvU?t=341

Marcus Foster #17 Hapoel Holon - First-team All-Big East (2017, 2018) & Richard Howell #5 Hapoel Holon - First-team All-ACC (2013)

https://youtu.be/TugVEdL1s44?t=237

Jeff Withey #5 Ironi Ness Ziona - 2× Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year (2012, 2013), First-team All-Big 12 (2013)

And many many others...

Another fun case:

https://youtu.be/kd8rBhe0wvU?t=399

TJ Cline #6 Hapoel Holon - Atlantic 10 Player of the Year (2017)

After this episode the TV guy said: "automatics switch may be a good idea... but sometime you should think what guy you switch on what guy". TJ is same size as Deni. He has very little to none advantage on him at post... and he can't even be switched on him for one moment on perimeter... And this guy was "Player of the Year" in same conference were Obi Toppin played.

p.s.
Baston? Wow, it's really years ago... I just married when he played here... now my son is in high school

[payitforward]

...They are needing a Thomas Bryant breakout to really be more than just a .500-ish type of team....

I was startled by that last phrase, which I guess represents the continuing belief that "a Wall/Beal-led team" is going to become a contender real soon now. Or, in Tommy Sheppard's words, last year was for player development -- this year, presumably, being meant as a return to the hunt.

To me it seems that "a .500-ish type of team" is already pretty optimistic. We had, in effect, a 30-win season last year.

Now, between the trade deadline (departure of IT) & the suspension of the season in March, we went 7-8. Encouraging. Yet, that was an extremely soft schedule: a) 9 of those 15 games were at home, & b) 5 of our 7 wins were over teams with even worse records than ours (2 over the Knicks, 1 over the Bulls, 1 over Atlanta, & 1 over Golden State). We did beat Dallas at home (by 1 point) & Brooklyn at home (by 4), but, still, that's a pretty easy schedule overall.

This year, we've got Lopez & Neto instead of Mahinmi & Napier. Plus Anthony Gill. &, most important obviously, we've added Avdija. Though we'd all love for Deni to come in & light up the league, let's assume it'll take a while for him to have a positive impact.

In short, the idea that we'd be a .500 team in the coming season would seem to rest almost entirely on hopes for John Wall to come back at an extremely high level. Even if he does -- & even if Brown, Bryant, Bonga & Rui improve -- that's a pretty big jump.

[doclinkin]

...clips...

p.s.
Baston? Wow, it's really years ago... I just married when he played here... now my son is in high school

I notice you are posting offensive clips against all those "2nd team all ACC players". The jump off point for this discussion was defense.

On Maceo. Yeah the Wizards/Bullets had drafted JC Navarro from FC Barcelona. I got curious and started watching pirated feeds from the Spanish ACB league and developed a strong appreciation for those teams. Basketball played there really is 2nd tier only to the NBA. It is a different style than NBA ball, much better team play, hacking defense allowed, and some sub-calibre NBA talent thrives there, players whose game doesn't quite translate here can really carve a place for themselves there. (Any big who can rebound and is willing to pass can earn time in the ACB). That was my door into Euroball. The fact that my guy from Maryland Sarunas Jasikevicius played there jumped out. Plus I wanted a Gregor F-UCKA jersey. (edit since the censors hate his name even on RealGM). I liked Sarunas at UMD, where I couldn't pronounce his name so I called him "Sausages and Cabbages". Scrappy long range game never afraid of a big moment, even if his defense was behind his long range game.

It was fun watching Spanish games at odd hours, and watching La Bomba Navarro grow into his skill set. It was fun watching Jasikevicius grow into a stone cold winner, and I caught them at the right time since they won the Euroleague. That carried over into always keeping an eye on Sarunas, as he bounced around from team to team and won pretty much everywhere he went. NOW I see he has been tapped to lead the team where he was a champion. Not Maccabi, but Barcelona. Congrats Sarunas. I hope he wins there and we can recruit him as our next Wizards coach. I do feel like this squad is primed for a Euroleague coach to manage it. Even if we are short on practice time to drill fundamentals as they can over there. I respect the game played overseas, and many players that have success there do translate over here. On the whole fewer international players end up in the NBA than come from NCAA ball. But those numbers are changing over time.

That said probably the best basketball in the world would be played by Nigerian players raised in Croatian basketball academies. This league will swiftly be taken over by players of Nigerian ancestry if the most recent draft year is any indication, they grow tall and strong even by accident over there. -- and Croatia builds NBA players from birth, a tiny country with a ridiculously high % of NBA players proportionate to the population. So. In Deni we get close. Israel is nearly in Africa. Basically on the continent. And his dad is Croatia-adjacent by birth. Maybe this is as close as we will get for a while

[Dat2U]

...They are needing a Thomas Bryant breakout to really be more than just a .500-ish type of team....

I was startled by that last phrase, which I guess represents the continuing belief that "a Wall/Beal-led team" is going to become a contender real soon now. Or, in Tommy Sheppard's words, last year was for player development -- this year, presumably, being meant as a return to the hunt.

To me it seems that "a .500-ish type of team" is already pretty optimistic. We had, in effect, a 30-win season last year.

Now, between the trade deadline (departure of IT) & the suspension of the season in March, we went 7-8. Encouraging. Yet, that was an extremely soft schedule: a) 9 of those 15 games were at home, & b) 5 of our 7 wins were over teams with even worse records than ours (2 over the Knicks, 1 over the Bulls, 1 over Atlanta, & 1 over Golden State). We did beat Dallas at home (by 1 point) & Brooklyn at home (by 4), but, still, that's a pretty easy schedule overall.

This year, we've got Lopez & Neto instead of Mahinmi & Napier. Plus Anthony Gill. &, most important obviously, we've added Avdija. Though we'd all love for Deni to come in & light up the league, let's assume it'll take a while for him to have a positive impact.

In short, the idea that we'd be a .500 team in the coming season would seem to rest almost entirely on hopes for John Wall to come back at an extremely high level. Even if he does -- & even if Brown, Bryant, Bonga & Rui improve -- that's a pretty big jump.

Should I have said .463 win team lol? In 82-game season I'd say 38 wins right now. 3 wins from .500. Not terrible and perfectly mediocre. But arguing over a few more wins seems silly.

[arusinov]

...clips...

p.s.
Baston? Wow, it's really years ago... I just married when he played here... now my son is in high school

I notice you are posting offensive clips against all those "2nd team all ACC players". The jump off point for this discussion was defense.

On Maceo. Yeah the Wizards/Bullets had drafted JC Navarro from FC Barcelona. I got curious and started watching pirated feeds from the Spanish ACB league and developed a strong appreciation for those teams. Basketball played there really is 2nd tier only to the NBA. It is a different style than NBA ball, much better team play, hacking defense allowed, and some sub-calibre NBA talent thrives there, players whose game doesn't quite translate here can really carve a place for themselves there. (Any big who can rebound and is willing to pass can earn time in the ACB). That was my door into Euroball. The fact that my guy from Maryland Sarunas Jasikevicius played there jumped out. Plus I wanted a Gregor F-UCKA jersey. (edit since the censors hate his name even on RealGM). I liked Sarunas at UMD, where I couldn't pronounce his name so I called him "Sausages and Cabbages". Scrappy long range game never afraid of a big moment, even if his defense was behind his long range game.

It was fun watching Spanish games at odd hours, and watching La Bomba Navarro grow into his skill set. It was fun watching Jasikevicius grow into a stone cold winner, and I caught them at the right time since they won the Euroleague. That carried over into always keeping an eye on Sarunas, as he bounced around from team to team and won pretty much everywhere he went. NOW I see he has been tapped to lead the team where he was a champion. Not Maccabi, but Barcelona. Congrats Sarunas. I hope he wins there and we can recruit him as our next Wizards coach. I do feel like this squad is primed for a Euroleague coach to manage it. Even if we are short on practice time to drill fundamentals as they can over there. I respect the game played overseas, and many players that have success there do translate over here. On the whole fewer international players end up in the NBA than come from NCAA ball. But those numbers are changing over time.

That said probably the best basketball in the world would be played by Nigerian players raised in Croatian basketball academies. This league will swiftly be taken over by players of Nigerian ancestry if the most recent draft year is any indication, they grow tall and strong even by accident over there. -- and Croatia builds NBA players from birth, a tiny country with a ridiculously high % of NBA players proportionate to the population. So. In Deni we get close. Israel is nearly in Africa. Basically on the continent. And his dad is Croatia-adjacent by birth. Maybe this is as close as we will get for a while

Well. Maccabi wanted to get "Saras" as coach at one point, he refused. Probably his memories of Israel weren't great... because his marriage to Israeli beauty queen was kind of trainwreck.

I added those vids to show that Pons was long way from the only athletic defender he met and I BSL is not actually bunch of white guys which came to play a bit after studying math (funny enough 2022 draft prospect Noam Dovrat precisely such kid - he completed high school 2 years early with highest possible marks in math and science )

The major point: I-BSL is not a league where from people come to NBA, it's a league where NBA drop outs fall - which is still the way to create better than any NCAA conference and quite athletic league

Speaking about defence:
(

Read on Twitter

)

Here's Deni defending against Anadulu Efes... It was basically the highest possible level game outside NBA (Maccabi at joined 4-5th in Euroleague against Anadulu at 1st)

Look at the end of the video: on decisive possession with Maccabi leading by 2 Deni is guarding (and not after switch but whole attack) Shane Larkin which is (as you may remember) quite quick PG at 6'0" which had kind of breakout Euroleague season and lead Anadulu in scoring - and Larkin doesn't succeed to get away from him and forced to take difficult shot and misses.

[doclinkin]

Right. Shane Larkin, last seen scoring 4.3 mighty points per game for the Boston Celtics.

[payitforward]

As with most arguments of this kind, this one is constantly shifting ground. Also... let's get behind our new rookie! Also, how about that 2021 Depth Chart??

[Frichuela]

Avdija is going to surprise us on the defensive side. Mark my words. I would not be surprised if he is our starting SF by the trade deadline.

[doclinkin]

As with most arguments of this kind, this one is constantly shifting ground. Also... let's get behind our new rookie! Also, how about that 2021 Depth Chart??

Enjoying the irony of PIF telling folks to wrap it up and move it on. Brandon Clarke and Rui Hachimura say hello.

[doclinkin]

Avdija is going to surprise us on the defensive side. Mark my words. I would not be surprised if he is our starting SF by the trade deadline.

I wouldn't be surprised either, given last year's defense. Hell he tries to play defense. Line-up wise is the question. He plays a similar role as Bonga (3/4 face up player with a handle, who gives defensive effort, passes, reads the floor well, but has as an as yet incomplete outside game) but he has a higher level of athletic talent, and an aggressive mindset where Bonga is passive on offense at times. I hope they can co-exist and play well off each other since I like Bonga, and in cases like this the player drafted higher tends to get the benefit of the doubt. Plus aggression goes a long way.

[arusinov]

Right. Shane Larkin, last seen scoring 4.3 mighty points per game for the Boston Celtics.

Well. It's as simple as it: If Shane was successful in NBA he would be still in NBA. And it's correct for more or less everybody (including for Shved or even Mirotic which would be able to get contract in NBA at any time... but nothing like status they have in Euroleague).
Typical Euroleague star makes like $2M per year. Not much more than Bonga gets in Washington and less than Avdija.

I never claimed that Euroleague is as good as NBA (I've seen some people with such opinion - not on Israeli but on Russian forums... and always said they are totally bonkers about it) or any close to it.

The story though - Larkin while not good player in NBA was never considered slow, and he's smallish guard... and as leading scorer he was going almost for sure to take last shot. And of all men 6'9" 19 years old Avdija was tasked with stopping him.

[arusinov]

As with most arguments of this kind, this one is constantly shifting ground. Also... let's get behind our new rookie! Also, how about that 2021 Depth Chart??

Well. Isn't question whether Bonga, Deni or maybe TBJ starting at 3 - the biggest uncertainty in Wizards Depth Chart in 2021 ?

[NatP4]

Avdija is a top 10 pick, he should start. There are plenty of minutes to go around if Brooks doesn’t overuse guys like Jerome Robinson and Ish Smith.

Wall 24 Smith/Neto 10 Brown 14
Beal 34 Brown 14
Avdija 28 Bonga 20
Hachimura 28 Bertans 20
Bryant 32 Lopez/Wagner 16


Either play Brown at both guard positions, or slide Hachimura up and play some small ball to free up more wing minutes, either way, play your best players.

[NatP4]

I wanna see this lineup at times: Brown-Beal-Bonga-Avdija-Hachimura. Switch all 5 positions, all can handle the ball.

When Wall is out there, I wanna see Wall-Beal-Bonga-Bertans-Bryant. Surround him with catch and shoot guys and play pick and roll with Bryant.

Brooks has so many options this season

[payitforward]

As with most arguments of this kind, this one is constantly shifting ground. Also... let's get behind our new rookie! Also, how about that 2021 Depth Chart??

Enjoying the irony of PIF telling folks to wrap it up and move it on. Brandon Clarke and Rui Hachimura say hello.

I don't see the relationship.

Are you saying that it was a mistake to draft Deni Avdija at #9 in this draft? That's definitely what I said about Rui & the 2019 draft.

As to Clarke... you know perfectly well, doc, that Brandon Clarke was a better basketball player than Rui Hachimura in college, & you know that he's been a better basketball player than Rui in the NBA too. Much better.

But, I never bring up the subject of Brandon Clarke vs. Rui.

For example, I don't bring up the fact that Clarke outscores Rui, that he plays better defense than Rui, or that he shoots a higher % than Rui on both 2's & 3's. I don't create posts to point out that Clarke gets more defensive rebounds than Rui, also more offensive rebounds, & has a much, much higher TS% than his college teammate & buddy, Rui -- & certainly I never mention that he Clarke blocks 6 times as many shots as Rui.

I don't bring it up, because the fact that Clarke is so very much better than Rui in almost every way doesn't mean he always will be. After all, that could change completely. The day may come when Rui outscores Clarke, shoots higher percentages than Clarke, plays better defense than Clarke, rebounds better than Clarke, & even -- it's possible! -- blocks 6 times as many shots as his pal who now blocks 6 times as many shots as he does.

& that's why I never bring up the subject. Yet, for some reason, other people do.

You for example: you just did.

[Frichuela]

Avdija is a top 10 pick, he should start. There are plenty of minutes to go around if Brooks doesn’t overuse guys like Jerome Robinson and Ish Smith.

Wall 24 Smith/Neto 10 Brown 14
Beal 34 Brown 14
Avdija 28 Bonga 20
Hachimura 28 Bertans 20
Bryant 32 Lopez/Wagner 16


Either play Brown at both guard positions, or slide Hachimura up and play some small ball to free up more wing minutes, either way, play your best players.

Reasonable hypothetical distribution of minutes. I hope Brooks plays Brown some times at PG when he is in court with another good ball handler (Beal in particular). I also expect Deni Advija to take over and end up as a starter at some point this season.

Just two caveats: i) Wall (when he plays) will surely play more than 24 mins/game and ii) Bertans should play more than 20 mins/game. With this in mind, this would be my ideal distribution of minutes:

Wall 30 Smith/Neto/Wiston 10 Brown 8
Beal 34 Brown 14
Avdija 28 Bonga 16 Bertans 4
Hachimura 28 Bertans 20
Bryant 30 Lopez/Wagner 14 Bertans 4

In this line-up, Brown plays both PG and SG while Bertans is a jack of all trades who plays mainly PF but can also (at times) play some minutes at the SF and C positions, particularly in closing line-ups sharing the court with Rui.

[nate33]

Avdija is a top 10 pick, he should start. There are plenty of minutes to go around if Brooks doesn’t overuse guys like Jerome Robinson and Ish Smith.

Wall 24 Smith/Neto 10 Brown 14
Beal 34 Brown 14
Avdija 28 Bonga 20
Hachimura 28 Bertans 20
Bryant 32 Lopez/Wagner 16


Either play Brown at both guard positions, or slide Hachimura up and play some small ball to free up more wing minutes, either way, play your best players.

It's extremely rare for a team competing for the playoffs to give a 19-year-old rookie 28 minutes a game. Our #3 pick Otto Porter didn't play near that much, and he was a year older with 2 NCAA seasons under his belt.

I think giving rookies some consistent minutes helps to develop them because they really need to get a sense of how fast they play at the NBA level. But I don't think giving a rookie 28 minutes a game helps them any more than giving them 16 minutes a game. Most development happens in practice, not in games.

If Avdija proves from the get go that he is better than Bonga and Brown, then sure, start him. But if he doesn't, and Brooks concludes that our chances of winning are better with Brown, Bonga (or Bertans) starting, then I've got no problems at all playing Avdija off the bench. As long as he plays at least 12-16 minutes of the bench with consistency, he'll be fine. Arguably, he might even be better off as a regular ball-handler on the 2nd unit than as an off-the-ball role player alongside Wall, Beal and Bryant.

[Frichuela]

Avdija is a top 10 pick, he should start. There are plenty of minutes to go around if Brooks doesn’t overuse guys like Jerome Robinson and Ish Smith.

Wall 24 Smith/Neto 10 Brown 14
Beal 34 Brown 14
Avdija 28 Bonga 20
Hachimura 28 Bertans 20
Bryant 32 Lopez/Wagner 16


Either play Brown at both guard positions, or slide Hachimura up and play some small ball to free up more wing minutes, either way, play your best players.

It's extremely rare for a team competing for the playoffs to give a 19-year-old rookie 28 minutes a game. Our #3 pick Otto Porter didn't play near that much, and he was a year older with 2 NCAA seasons under his belt.

I think giving rookies some consistent minutes helps to develop them because they really need to get a sense of how fast they play at the NBA level. But I don't think giving a rookie 28 minutes a game helps them any more than giving them 16 minutes a game. Most development happens in practice, not in games.

If Avdija proves from the get go that he is better than Bonga and Brown, then sure, start him. But if he doesn't, and Brooks concludes that our chances of winning are better with Brown, Bonga (or Bertans) starting, then I've got no problems at all playing Avdija off the bench. As long as he plays at least 12-16 minutes of the bench with consistency, he'll be fine. Arguably, he might even be better off as a regular ball-handler on the 2nd unit than as an off-the-ball role player alongside Wall, Beal and Bryant.

All reasonable points about the rookie nate and the fact that this year the expectations to play for a playoff spot are much greater (and hence we should not compare to last year's case with Rui). I just have this hunch he is going to surprise us... but, hey, I could also be very wrong...time will tell!

[nate33]

Avdija is a top 10 pick, he should start. There are plenty of minutes to go around if Brooks doesn’t overuse guys like Jerome Robinson and Ish Smith.

Wall 24 Smith/Neto 10 Brown 14
Beal 34 Brown 14
Avdija 28 Bonga 20
Hachimura 28 Bertans 20
Bryant 32 Lopez/Wagner 16


Either play Brown at both guard positions, or slide Hachimura up and play some small ball to free up more wing minutes, either way, play your best players.

It's extremely rare for a team competing for the playoffs to give a 19-year-old rookie 28 minutes a game. Our #3 pick Otto Porter didn't play near that much, and he was a year older with 2 NCAA seasons under his belt.

I think giving rookies some consistent minutes helps to develop them because they really need to get a sense of how fast they play at the NBA level. But I don't think giving a rookie 28 minutes a game helps them any more than giving them 16 minutes a game. Most development happens in practice, not in games.

If Avdija proves from the get go that he is better than Bonga and Brown, then sure, start him. But if he doesn't, and Brooks concludes that our chances of winning are better with Brown, Bonga (or Bertans) starting, then I've got no problems at all playing Avdija off the bench. As long as he plays at least 12-16 minutes of the bench with consistency, he'll be fine. Arguably, he might even be better off as a regular ball-handler on the 2nd unit than as an off-the-ball role player alongside Wall, Beal and Bryant.

All reasonable points about the rookie nate and the fact that this year the expectations to play for a playoff spot are much greater (and hence we should not compare to last year's case with Rui). I just have this hunch he is going to surprise us... but, hey, I could also be very wrong...time will tell!

I'll also add that there is absolutely no chance that Bertans gets just 20 minutes a game. He is way too good and way too expensive for that. He'll surely get 27+ minutes, and they are likely to come from Avdija.

[NatP4]

Avdija is a top 10 pick, he should start. There are plenty of minutes to go around if Brooks doesn’t overuse guys like Jerome Robinson and Ish Smith.

Wall 24 Smith/Neto 10 Brown 14
Beal 34 Brown 14
Avdija 28 Bonga 20
Hachimura 28 Bertans 20
Bryant 32 Lopez/Wagner 16


Either play Brown at both guard positions, or slide Hachimura up and play some small ball to free up more wing minutes, either way, play your best players.

It's extremely rare for a team competing for the playoffs to give a 19-year-old rookie 28 minutes a game. Our #3 pick Otto Porter didn't play near that much, and he was a year older with 2 NCAA seasons under his belt.

I think giving rookies some consistent minutes helps to develop them because they really need to get a sense of how fast they play at the NBA level. But I don't think giving a rookie 28 minutes a game helps them any more than giving them 16 minutes a game. Most development happens in practice, not in games.

If Avdija proves from the get go that he is better than Bonga and Brown, then sure, start him. But if he doesn't, and Brooks concludes that our chances of winning are better with Brown, Bonga (or Bertans) starting, then I've got no problems at all playing Avdija off the bench. As long as he plays at least 12-16 minutes of the bench with consistency, he'll be fine. Arguably, he might even be better off as a regular ball-handler on the 2nd unit than as an off-the-ball role player alongside Wall, Beal and Bryant.

I would expect Scott Brooks to think like this, no doubt. The 2013 wizards were very different from the 2020 team. That team had two up and coming stars in Wall and Beal, Wall is now damaged goods. That team was all in on "win now", they acquired Nene, Ariza, Harrington, Webster, and had just traded a 1st round pick for Gortat. They were all in on going to the playoffs. This team is not in win now mode, nor should they be. This team has a roster full of players that need playing time to develop.

Otto also had a lingering hip issue that prevented him from having a training camp or any preseason action, he was not even available to practice until later on in the season.