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2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :)

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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1161 » by nate33 » Wed Apr 7, 2021 7:12 pm

Illuminaire wrote:
nate33 wrote:Meanwhile, Kuminga has an NBA body and is strong enough to match up with NBA players right away. I don't think he'll be particularly efficient as a scorer in his first couple of seasons, but he'll hold his own defensively. And at his young age, I expect rapid improvement on offense. If nothing else, he'll become an acceptable 3-point shooter, which will make him a useful 3&D guy pretty quickly.


You're relying on a young player to provide defensive value, and expecting a 62.5% FT shooter to become a decent 3&D guy "pretty quickly"?

We usually agree on a lot of things, but I'm really not seeing the logic here. Kuminga will rebound and be an athlete, that's ALL we can be sure of right now.

Yes.

He did not have much of an opportunity to shoot standstill 3's in his early career because he was always the dominate shot creator on the floor. But I think most young guys whose shots aren't clearly broken can practice catch-and-shoot and improve rapidly. I'm not saying he'll be a 41% 3-point shooter, but being a 33% shooter his first year and a 36% shooter his 2nd year wouldn't surprise me at all.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1162 » by nate33 » Wed Apr 7, 2021 7:13 pm

Illuminaire wrote:
nate33 wrote:Meanwhile, Kuminga has an NBA body and is strong enough to match up with NBA players right away. I don't think he'll be particularly efficient as a scorer in his first couple of seasons, but he'll hold his own defensively. And at his young age, I expect rapid improvement on offense. If nothing else, he'll become an acceptable 3-point shooter, which will make him a useful 3&D guy pretty quickly.


You're relying on a young player to provide defensive value, and expecting a 62.5% FT shooter to become a decent 3&D guy "pretty quickly"?

We usually agree on a lot of things, but I'm really not seeing the logic here. Kuminga will rebound and be an athlete, that's ALL we can be sure of right now.

And to be clear, I'm not arguing that we should take Kuminga over Mobley. I'm just arguing that it wouldn't surprise me at all if several GM's ranked Kuminga higher. I would not take Kuminga over Mobley.

One thing that really alarmed me about Mobley is that other teams would freely play a switching defense against USC and had no difficulties guarding Mobley with a shooting guard or a small forward. Those 6-5 guys could easily keep him from establishing any kind of deep post position.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1163 » by NatP4 » Wed Apr 7, 2021 7:19 pm

Illuminaire wrote:
nate33 wrote:Meanwhile, Kuminga has an NBA body and is strong enough to match up with NBA players right away. I don't think he'll be particularly efficient as a scorer in his first couple of seasons, but he'll hold his own defensively. And at his young age, I expect rapid improvement on offense. If nothing else, he'll become an acceptable 3-point shooter, which will make him a useful 3&D guy pretty quickly.


You're relying on a young player to provide defensive value, and expecting a 62.5% FT shooter to become a decent 3&D guy "pretty quickly"?

We usually agree on a lot of things, but I'm really not seeing the logic here. Kuminga will rebound and be an athlete, that's ALL we can be sure of right now.


There is absolutely no logic there. You have a guy that scored 17 points per 36 on 64% TS vs a guy that scored 17 points per 36 on 49% TS at 24% from 3 and 62% from the free throw line. There is no indication that Kuminga will ever be a good shooter. His misses throughout the year, were nowhere close. His jumpshot looked broken. Mobley was a better 3pt shooter than Kuminga.

Kuminga was also NOT a good defender in the G-league. People see the athleticism and the measureables and just assume Kuminga will be a good defender in the NBA, but he was awful for the Ignite team.

The only thing that is a guarantee for Kuminga, is that he will hustle and be athletic, like you said. Questionable basketball IQ/feel for the game+broken jumpshot.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1164 » by nate33 » Wed Apr 7, 2021 7:22 pm

NatP4 wrote:
Illuminaire wrote:
nate33 wrote:Meanwhile, Kuminga has an NBA body and is strong enough to match up with NBA players right away. I don't think he'll be particularly efficient as a scorer in his first couple of seasons, but he'll hold his own defensively. And at his young age, I expect rapid improvement on offense. If nothing else, he'll become an acceptable 3-point shooter, which will make him a useful 3&D guy pretty quickly.


You're relying on a young player to provide defensive value, and expecting a 62.5% FT shooter to become a decent 3&D guy "pretty quickly"?

We usually agree on a lot of things, but I'm really not seeing the logic here. Kuminga will rebound and be an athlete, that's ALL we can be sure of right now.


There is absolutely no logic there. You have a guy that scored 17 points per 36 on 64% TS vs a guy that scored 17 points per 36 on 49% TS at 24% from 3 and 62% from the free throw line. There is no indication that Kuminga will ever be a good shooter. His misses throughout the year, were nowhere close. His jumpshot looked broken. Mobley was a better 3pt shooter than Kuminga.

Kuminga was also NOT a good defender in the G-league. People see the athleticism and the measureables and just assume Kuminga will be a good defender in the NBA, but he was awful for the Ignite team.

The only thing that is a guarantee for Kuminga, is that he will hustle and be athletic, like you said. Questionable basketball IQ/feel for the game+broken jumpshot.

We shall see. As I have stated over and over, I prefer Mobley over Kuminga so I don't know why you are getting so worked up over this. All I'm saying is that it would not surprise me if Kuminga was more productive than Mobley over the first 1-3 years of his career. And that may be why some teams might favor him over Mobley.

As far as I'm concerned, it's good news for us because it increases the likelihood that we land Mobley.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1165 » by NatP4 » Wed Apr 7, 2021 7:26 pm

I just don’t agree that Mobley will be ineffective in his first couple of seasons. He’s an elite talent.

To me anyways, the thought of drafting Kuminga over him is laughable. Kuminga is going to be a journeyman backup wing that can’t shoot at all.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1166 » by DCZards » Wed Apr 7, 2021 7:58 pm

nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Mobley dropping below Kuminga and Green????

Also, the wiz have a 2% chance of picking 5th


It doesn't surprise me too much that Mobley has dropped. As I have said before, I think there's a real chance that Mobley will be ineffective for a few years because he is so slight of frame. Meanwhile, the worst performing guy of the top 5, Kuminga, also has the best NBA body and fits into the versatile wing prototype that every team needs.

I'm not saying that its wise to place Kuminga ahead of Mobley, but I can see why some teams would trend in that direction.

I think your opinion as to why teams might prefer Kuminga to Mobley is spot on...especially the part about Kuminga being the versatile wing prototype.

Kuminga is no doubt behind Mobley in terms of development (although I don’t think his shot is broken) but he may in fact have a greater upside.

Kuminga’s first step and ability to get downhill before the defense has a chance to respond is very impressive. It reminds me of Giannis...and I’m sure teams passed on the raw Giannis for the very same reasons that some might pass on the raw Kuminga.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1167 » by Illuminaire » Wed Apr 7, 2021 8:11 pm

FAH1223 wrote:
Illuminaire wrote:
nate33 wrote:Meanwhile, Kuminga has an NBA body and is strong enough to match up with NBA players right away. I don't think he'll be particularly efficient as a scorer in his first couple of seasons, but he'll hold his own defensively. And at his young age, I expect rapid improvement on offense. If nothing else, he'll become an acceptable 3-point shooter, which will make him a useful 3&D guy pretty quickly.


You're relying on a young player to provide defensive value, and expecting a 62.5% FT shooter to become a decent 3&D guy "pretty quickly"?

We usually agree on a lot of things, but I'm really not seeing the logic here. Kuminga will rebound and be an athlete, that's ALL we can be sure of right now.


Do you get MKG vibes from Kuminga?


Oh man, I hope not. But MKG is a cautionary tale about how an athletic wing can fail to be an impact player if he never learns to shoot. Fun fact: MKG was a better shooter at 18 than Kuminga is.

Kuminga seems to be a better passer. I feel like he's longer too, though I don't have measurements to back that. I think Kuminga is a better prospect than MKG, but that is certainly a possibility if he fails to develop his shot and tighten his handle.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1168 » by Ruzious » Wed Apr 7, 2021 8:15 pm

DCZards wrote:
nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Mobley dropping below Kuminga and Green????

Also, the wiz have a 2% chance of picking 5th


It doesn't surprise me too much that Mobley has dropped. As I have said before, I think there's a real chance that Mobley will be ineffective for a few years because he is so slight of frame. Meanwhile, the worst performing guy of the top 5, Kuminga, also has the best NBA body and fits into the versatile wing prototype that every team needs.

I'm not saying that its wise to place Kuminga ahead of Mobley, but I can see why some teams would trend in that direction.

I think your opinion as to why teams might prefer Kuminga to Mobley is spot on...especially the part about Kuminga being the versatile wing prototype.

Kuminga is no doubt behind Mobley in terms of development (although I don’t think his shot is broken) but he may in fact have a greater upside.

Kuminga’s first step and ability to get downhill before the defense has a chance to respond is very impressive. It reminds me of Giannis...and I’m sure teams passed on the raw Giannis for the very same reasons that some might pass on the raw Kuminga.

I don't see the comparison. Giannis is a giant with tremendous length and power. Kuminga's got good size, but I think he's pretty much full-grown and won't have the dimensions Giannis has.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1169 » by Illuminaire » Wed Apr 7, 2021 8:16 pm

nate33 wrote:Yes.

He did not have much of an opportunity to shoot standstill 3's in his early career because he was always the dominate shot creator on the floor. But I think most young guys whose shots aren't clearly broken can practice catch-and-shoot and improve rapidly. I'm not saying he'll be a 41% 3-point shooter, but being a 33% shooter his first year and a 36% shooter his 2nd year wouldn't surprise me at all.


I would be. He had plenty of opportunities to hit standstill 2's at the free throw line, with no defenders, hit only 62% of them. That's terrible.

What is your basis for faith in Kuminga's nascent shooting ability? What about him makes you think he will buck the statistical trend of poor FT shooters being poor overall shooters at the NBA level?
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1170 » by NatP4 » Wed Apr 7, 2021 8:31 pm

Kuminga would have to grow about 4 inches in both height and wingspan to be comparable to Giannis.

A physical comparison for him would be someone like Stanley Johnson.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1171 » by NatP4 » Wed Apr 7, 2021 8:41 pm

Kuminga is an afterthought for me. The real question is whether or not Jalen Green is a legit option at 3/4 like people say he is? Why was he one of the worst players on the ignite team with a -10 on/off differential, and the worst defensive player according to defensive rating (by a mile)?

How useful is a guy that isn’t a primary playmaker/ball handler, and doesn’t have a positive impact defensively?

I’m sure he’ll make all of the rookie teams and the highlight reels but how much will he help you win games?
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1172 » by DCZards » Wed Apr 7, 2021 8:41 pm

Ruzious wrote:
DCZards wrote:
nate33 wrote:
It doesn't surprise me too much that Mobley has dropped. As I have said before, I think there's a real chance that Mobley will be ineffective for a few years because he is so slight of frame. Meanwhile, the worst performing guy of the top 5, Kuminga, also has the best NBA body and fits into the versatile wing prototype that every team needs.

I'm not saying that its wise to place Kuminga ahead of Mobley, but I can see why some teams would trend in that direction.

I think your opinion as to why teams might prefer Kuminga to Mobley is spot on...especially the part about Kuminga being the versatile wing prototype.

Kuminga is no doubt behind Mobley in terms of development (although I don’t think his shot is broken) but he may in fact have a greater upside.

Kuminga’s first step and ability to get downhill before the defense has a chance to respond is very impressive. It reminds me of Giannis...and I’m sure teams passed on the raw Giannis for the very same reasons that some might pass on the raw Kuminga.

I don't see the comparison. Giannis is a giant with tremendous length and power. Kuminga's got good size, but I think he's pretty much full-grown and won't have the dimensions Giannis has.

Not suggesting that he’s comparable to Giannis for the reasons you cite. But he’s long and great at taking opponents off the dribble (like Giannis) and, like Giannis, will be downgraded because of his mediocre shooting.

I’d probably take Cade, Mobley, Green and Suggs over Kuminga... but I’d have no problem taking Kuminga with the 5th pick.

Sometimes people over analyze stuff and that’s why talent like Kawhi and Giannis end up going in the teens and later.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1173 » by NatP4 » Wed Apr 7, 2021 8:43 pm

Also we talk about the top 5 all the time, but every year there seems to be a surprise (Patrick Williams last year). What prospect has the best chance to jump into that top 5 that no one is talking about? Jalen Johnson, Scottie Barnes, Moses Moody, Franz Wagner, Josh Giddey, James Bouknight? Someone else?
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1174 » by Shoe » Thu Apr 8, 2021 4:27 am

Illuminaire wrote:
nate33 wrote:Yes.

He did not have much of an opportunity to shoot standstill 3's in his early career because he was always the dominate shot creator on the floor. But I think most young guys whose shots aren't clearly broken can practice catch-and-shoot and improve rapidly. I'm not saying he'll be a 41% 3-point shooter, but being a 33% shooter his first year and a 36% shooter his 2nd year wouldn't surprise me at all.


I would be. He had plenty of opportunities to hit standstill 2's at the free throw line, with no defenders, hit only 62% of them. That's terrible.

What is your basis for faith in Kuminga's nascent shooting ability? What about him makes you think he will buck the statistical trend of poor FT shooters being poor overall shooters at the NBA level?


Jaylen Brown at Cal: 65% FT

Zach Lavine at UCLA: 69% FT

G League bubble was only 13 games. Kumingas fluidity and left hand should end the MKG and Stanley Johnson comparisons.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1175 » by Illuminaire » Thu Apr 8, 2021 1:51 pm

Shoe wrote:Jaylen Brown at Cal: 65% FT

Zach Lavine at UCLA: 69% FT

G League bubble was only 13 games. Kumingas fluidity and left hand should end the MKG and Stanley Johnson comparisons.


Those are interesting exceptions! But they are exceptions to the statistical reality. The question is not whether they exist, it is why they exist and if the same principles apply to Kuminga.

Brown is double strange because he was a terrible 3-point shooter in college, but he was instantly a good one in the NBA. Even though his FT shooting didn't really improve for four years! I still don't understand him.

Levine had a very low volume of FTs and was a decent 3-point shooter. His form was fine and he had good balance - between that and his mixed results, there were reasons to project him as a plus shooter on the NBA level.

Everything about Kuminga's shooting is bad. His FT% sucks hard. His 3PT% sucks harder. He misses in all directions, left, right, short, long- which usually indicates a form issue preventing a consistent result. At best, you can say the low sample size doesn't prove he's a bad shooter. But there is nothing - nothing - to say he will be a good one.
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Post#1176 » by nate33 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 2:03 pm

Illuminaire wrote:
Shoe wrote:Jaylen Brown at Cal: 65% FT

Zach Lavine at UCLA: 69% FT

G League bubble was only 13 games. Kumingas fluidity and left hand should end the MKG and Stanley Johnson comparisons.


Those are interesting exceptions! But they are exceptions to the statistical reality. The question is not whether they exist, it is why they exist and if the same principles apply to Kuminga.

Brown is double strange because he was a terrible 3-point shooter in college, but he was instantly a good one in the NBA. Even though his FT shooting didn't really improve for four years! I still don't understand him.

Levine had a very low volume of FTs and was a decent 3-point shooter. His form was fine and he had good balance - between that and his mixed results, there were reasons to project him as a plus shooter on the NBA level.

Everything about Kuminga's shooting is bad. His FT% sucks hard. His 3PT% sucks harder. He misses in all directions, left, right, short, long- which usually indicates a form issue preventing a consistent result. At best, you can say the low sample size doesn't prove he's a bad shooter. But there is nothing - nothing - to say he will be a good one.

I don't think it's wise to confidently predict the trajectory of a player's shooting career based on 48 free throw attempts as an 18-year-old.

The sample size with Kuminga is just too small to draw many conclusions from the stats. You have to look at what he is physically capable of doing, coupled with his work ethic and coachability.
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Post#1177 » by Dat2U » Thu Apr 8, 2021 2:12 pm

NatP4 wrote:Kuminga is an afterthought for me. The real question is whether or not Jalen Green is a legit option at 3/4 like people say he is? Why was he one of the worst players on the ignite team with a -10 on/off differential, and the worst defensive player according to defensive rating (by a mile)?

How useful is a guy that isn’t a primary playmaker/ball handler, and doesn’t have a positive impact defensively?

I’m sure he’ll make all of the rookie teams and the highlight reels but how much will he help you win games?


Green's production at his age against grown men is what you like. Obviously he has alot to work on but his athleticism pops when I watch him. I like him more than I die Anthony Edwards coming out.
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Post#1178 » by Dat2U » Thu Apr 8, 2021 2:16 pm

Shoe wrote:
Illuminaire wrote:
nate33 wrote:Yes.

He did not have much of an opportunity to shoot standstill 3's in his early career because he was always the dominate shot creator on the floor. But I think most young guys whose shots aren't clearly broken can practice catch-and-shoot and improve rapidly. I'm not saying he'll be a 41% 3-point shooter, but being a 33% shooter his first year and a 36% shooter his 2nd year wouldn't surprise me at all.


I would be. He had plenty of opportunities to hit standstill 2's at the free throw line, with no defenders, hit only 62% of them. That's terrible.

What is your basis for faith in Kuminga's nascent shooting ability? What about him makes you think he will buck the statistical trend of poor FT shooters being poor overall shooters at the NBA level?


Jaylen Brown at Cal: 65% FT

Zach Lavine at UCLA: 69% FT

G League bubble was only 13 games. Kumingas fluidity and left hand should end the MKG and Stanley Johnson comparisons.


Kuminga is all projection. Skill wise he's not NBA ready. Is he a gym rat? First to arrive, last to leave? Is he a perfectionist? I would want to know these things before I would draft him.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1179 » by nate33 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 2:20 pm

Dat2U wrote:
Shoe wrote:
Illuminaire wrote:
I would be. He had plenty of opportunities to hit standstill 2's at the free throw line, with no defenders, hit only 62% of them. That's terrible.

What is your basis for faith in Kuminga's nascent shooting ability? What about him makes you think he will buck the statistical trend of poor FT shooters being poor overall shooters at the NBA level?


Jaylen Brown at Cal: 65% FT

Zach Lavine at UCLA: 69% FT

G League bubble was only 13 games. Kumingas fluidity and left hand should end the MKG and Stanley Johnson comparisons.


Kuminga is all projection. Skill wise he's not NBA ready. Is he a gym rat? First to arrive, last to leave? Is he a perfectionist? I would want to know these things before I would draft him.

Exactly. You don't let 13 G-League games be the primary determinant of the kid's potential, not an 18-year-old. It's way more important to assess his character and mental makeup.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1180 » by Ruzious » Thu Apr 8, 2021 2:40 pm

Shoe wrote:
Illuminaire wrote:
nate33 wrote:Yes.

He did not have much of an opportunity to shoot standstill 3's in his early career because he was always the dominate shot creator on the floor. But I think most young guys whose shots aren't clearly broken can practice catch-and-shoot and improve rapidly. I'm not saying he'll be a 41% 3-point shooter, but being a 33% shooter his first year and a 36% shooter his 2nd year wouldn't surprise me at all.


I would be. He had plenty of opportunities to hit standstill 2's at the free throw line, with no defenders, hit only 62% of them. That's terrible.

What is your basis for faith in Kuminga's nascent shooting ability? What about him makes you think he will buck the statistical trend of poor FT shooters being poor overall shooters at the NBA level?


Jaylen Brown at Cal: 65% FT

Zach Lavine at UCLA: 69% FT

G League bubble was only 13 games. Kumingas fluidity and left hand should end the MKG and Stanley Johnson comparisons.

If all things go right, he could have a Jaylen Brown type progression. That's the player he most reminds me of at that stage.
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