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2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :)

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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1321 » by Frichuela » Mon Apr 19, 2021 2:32 pm

nate33 wrote:I just ran the lotto simulator about 10 times and came away pretty depressed.

When we were the 6th or 7th worst team, we got into the top 4 almost half the time, and when we didn't, it looked like a team like New Orleans or Golden State would get there (opening up a Beal trade possibility).

Now, it seems like every single time I run the simulator the same 5 teams are in the top 4: Houston, Minnesota, OKC, Detroit and Orlando; with Cleveland or Sacramento occasionally jumping in there. The Wizards only cracked the top 4 once in 10 tries (#4).

We better focus on that #10 pick. It's got our name written all over it.


Aye aye sir. Bar a sudden collapse in the Wiz's late play, that's where we are heading...

Question: where would we pick in the unlikely event we make the playoffs after successfully beating the 9th and worse of 7th/8th seeds? Would we pick 15th? At 15th, the likes of Mitchell are Giddey are surely gone...let's hope Butler remains on the board in such scenario!
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1322 » by pcbothwel » Mon Apr 19, 2021 2:39 pm

NatP4 wrote:The swing factor is Westbrook. With him, you need an impactful defending spot up shooting wing. Without him you obviously need that future guard. We’re better off drafting for the future, not the “missing piece” with this current roster.


The good thing is that even if we make the playoffs, we wont pick any later than 15... And I havent seen a single mock/scenario in which all 3 of Springer, Butler, and Giddey are gone by then. Not one. In fact, I think its about 75% that 2/3 are there as will Duarte.

Other than the top 4, the only players I really like that we'll miss out on by picking outside of the lotto is Sengun(But we have Bryant), Wagner, and Bouknight (But we have Brad, and hes strictly a 2).
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1323 » by NatP4 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 2:47 pm

I’ve said it before, but I like the idea of picking 9 or 10ish or lower, as opposed to 5-8. It takes the pressure off of Tommy. At 5-8 he is looking for a “home run” pick with possibly poor college production but great athleticism and measurables as opposed to a really good “complimentary” piece.

Wagner will certainly be there at 10. It wouldn’t even be a bad idea to reach a little on Jared Butler.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1324 » by nate33 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:08 pm

NatP4 wrote:I’ve said it before, but I like the idea of picking 9 or 10ish or lower, as opposed to 5-8. It takes the pressure off of Tommy. At 5-8 he is looking for a “home run” pick with possibly poor college production but great athleticism and measurables as opposed to a really good “complimentary” piece.

Wagner will certainly be there at 10. It wouldn’t even be a bad idea to reach a little on Jared Butler.

Interesting take. Makes a lot of sense to me.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1325 » by Ruzious » Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:20 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
NatP4 wrote:The swing factor is Westbrook. With him, you need an impactful defending spot up shooting wing. Without him you obviously need that future guard. We’re better off drafting for the future, not the “missing piece” with this current roster.


The good thing is that even if we make the playoffs, we wont pick any later than 15... And I havent seen a single mock/scenario in which all 3 of Springer, Butler, and Giddey are gone by then. Not one. In fact, I think its about 75% that 2/3 are there as will Duarte.

Other than the top 4, the only players I really like that we'll miss out on by picking outside of the lotto is Sengun(But we have Bryant), Wagner, and Bouknight (But we have Brad, and hes strictly a 2).

If they pick Sengun or Roko, they will get brutalized here for picking Euros.

Moody's stock fell like a brick in the NCAA's - going 4 of 20 and then 2 of 10 (against Baylor) in the last 2 games.

If they pick Springer, at least that would show they think he's the BPA, because he not only doesn't fill a need; he's also a developmental player who's not ready for the NBA.

For sleepers, I still swear by Jay Huff and Sam Hauser of UVA. Still think it's a shame they didn't meet Gonzaga in the tournament - probably because UVA couldn't practice because of Covid restrictions. Both will be 23 when the season starts. So was Brogdon.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1326 » by NatP4 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:42 pm

Garuba will probably fly up the boards after his last few games. Been hitting his 3s
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Post#1327 » by Ruzious » Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:45 pm

NatP4 wrote:Garuba will probably fly up the boards after his last few games. Been hitting his 3s

I'd need to see more of that, because he probably caught teams off guard - before those last 3 games, he shot so infrequently (both 2's and 3's) that opponents probably didn't take him seriously. He's been highly touted among the international players for a few years, but he seems like a poor man's Precious.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1328 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:04 pm

Cameron Thomas scores a ton of points. Twenty-three points per game as a freshman. Shoots a ton of theees and a ton of free throws.

I think the Wizards could trade down and draft Thomas, knowing they might trade Beal at some point in the future.
I think they should Trade Beal

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Post#1329 » by NatP4 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:19 pm

Ruzious wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Garuba will probably fly up the boards after his last few games. Been hitting his 3s

I'd need to see more of that, because he probably caught teams off guard - before those last 3 games, he shot so infrequently (both 2's and 3's) that opponents probably didn't take him seriously. He's been highly touted among the international players for a few years, but he seems like a poor man's Precious.


From just casually peaking at his game logs, it looked like the 3pt shooting has been trending up after the first handful of games. Not sure what else he does well though. Barely watched any footage.
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Post#1330 » by Ruzious » Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:46 pm

NatP4 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Garuba will probably fly up the boards after his last few games. Been hitting his 3s

I'd need to see more of that, because he probably caught teams off guard - before those last 3 games, he shot so infrequently (both 2's and 3's) that opponents probably didn't take him seriously. He's been highly touted among the international players for a few years, but he seems like a poor man's Precious.


From just casually peaking at his game logs, it looked like the 3pt shooting has been trending up after the first handful of games. Not sure what else he does well though. Barely watched any footage.

Before the last 3 games, he was shooting 29.4% from 3 and making half a 3 per game. He's made 6 of 11 the last 3 games. We'll see if he can keep that up.
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Post#1331 » by Ruzious » Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:55 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Cameron Thomas scores a ton of points. Twenty-three points per game as a freshman. Shoots a ton of theees and a ton of free throws.

I think the Wizards could trade down and draft Thomas, knowing they might trade Beal at some point in the future.

Well, he does like to shoot. He scores a lot, because he shoots a ton. It's hard to get only 1.4 assists per game while averaging 23.1 points. Low scoring efficiency.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1332 » by doclinkin » Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:00 pm

nate33 wrote:
Now that we have Gafford and he looks to be a keeper at center, does that move Mobley down in anyone's opinion? I know Doc said he'd take Mobley at #1, but given our current needs, I think I'd put Cunningham and Suggs over him. Cunningham in particular looks like the best fit in terms of need. We really need a SG/SF swing man who can shoot and defend, and we ultimately need a playmaker to take over in the future when Westbrook ages out. Cunningham checks all the boxes.


I'm fine with any of the top 3 players. Well, I'd be ecstatic really, since yeah we are doing the pointless push for the 9th seed we always do, and are likely to get the 10th pick.

The case for Mobley: I think Thomas Bryant is a dead end for us, since he is a defensive liability. Gafford is a nice pick up. A blend of the two of those players would be awesome. If we can end up with a player who HAS BOTH offensive utility/versatility, and defensive instincts, then why would we not look for that player? Ultimately you want an upgrade at every position on the floor, if you can get one. Since either or both of Rui/Deni can play SF/PF then I still think it is a position of need to select a PF/C who is able to switch on the outside, and is both productive while young and getting better. A playable two way Big is still one of the harder positions to find. Tall and athletic are rare, but even more rare is the combination of tall, athletic, and smart. Defensively ready. We see any number of JaVale Wiseman KAT types who are big natural athletes who don't seem to know what to do with it. The ones who inherently understand defense at an early age have an advantage and are more playable early. If you can pick up a player who projects to be on a scale between Myles Turner and Anthony Davis, you snatch them. They can affect a team's fortunes more significantly than a perimeter player. Even with Gafford on the team we are still playing 3 bigs. A Big who you can play at either 4 or 5 gives you versatility to face whatever team you line up against. LA won with Unibrow playing next to centers and a giant 'PG' in LeBJ. Giannis plays next to the other Lopez. Philly runs out Embiid with Simmons and a PF. There are teams that go big.

That said, I do see Cunningham as an excellent fit for what we need. If the team had a choice between any of the top 3, there seems to be a role for any of them.

And as you have pointed out, it is all irrelevant since we're far more likely to be picking 10th.
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Post#1333 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:16 pm

Ruzious wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Cameron Thomas scores a ton of points. Twenty-three points per game as a freshman. Shoots a ton of theees and a ton of free throws.

I think the Wizards could trade down and draft Thomas, knowing they might trade Beal at some point in the future.

Well, he does like to shoot. He scores a lot, because he shoots a ton. It's hard to get only 1.4 assists per game while averaging 23.1 points. Low scoring efficiency.


Agreed per the low scoring efficiency.


https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/cameron-thomas-1/gamelog/2021/

Note that he’s an 88.2% FT shooter.

He made 194/220 FTs in just 29 games.

I do not know that I can recall a guy attempting seven threes and seven free throws a game. I think he’s going to be better in the NBA, perhaps.
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Post#1334 » by Ruzious » Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:23 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Cameron Thomas scores a ton of points. Twenty-three points per game as a freshman. Shoots a ton of theees and a ton of free throws.

I think the Wizards could trade down and draft Thomas, knowing they might trade Beal at some point in the future.

Well, he does like to shoot. He scores a lot, because he shoots a ton. It's hard to get only 1.4 assists per game while averaging 23.1 points. Low scoring efficiency.


Agreed per the low scoring efficiency.


https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/cameron-thomas-1/gamelog/2021/

Note that he’s an 88.2% FT shooter.

He made 194/220 FTs in just 29 games.

I do not know that I can recall a guy attempting seven threes and seven free throws a game. I think he’s going to be better in the NBA, perhaps.

Spoiler:
Markus Howard?
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1335 » by DCZards » Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:44 pm

I’ve seen Cameron Thomas compared to Lou Williams, which sounds about right. He can score the ball and he gets to the FT line.

I’d expect Thomas to go late first round and have a long NBA career as an off the bench instant offense type...a la Jordan Clarkson.
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Post#1336 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:44 pm

DCZards wrote:I’ve seen Cameron Thomas compared to Lou Williams, which sounds about right. He can score the ball and he gets to the FT line.

I’d expect Thomas to go late first round and have a long NBA career as an off the bench instant offense type...a la Jordan Clarkson.


Lou Williams would be a better player than lottery selected Rui Hachimura and Deni Advidja, who neither one project to be difference makers.
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Post#1337 » by nate33 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:16 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
DCZards wrote:I’ve seen Cameron Thomas compared to Lou Williams, which sounds about right. He can score the ball and he gets to the FT line.

I’d expect Thomas to go late first round and have a long NBA career as an off the bench instant offense type...a la Jordan Clarkson.


Lou Williams would be a better player than lottery selected Rui Hachimura and Deni Advidja, who neither one project to be difference makers.

I disagree.

Lou Williams is a terrible defender who is exploited in the playoffs every year. Hachimura and Avdija can at least defend their position, which is a prerequisite for any playoff caliber starter. They're not yet consistent enough or skilled enough to be relied upon offensively, but I think they'll get there.
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Post#1338 » by Dat2U » Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:18 am

NatP4 wrote:I’ve said it before, but I like the idea of picking 9 or 10ish or lower, as opposed to 5-8. It takes the pressure off of Tommy. At 5-8 he is looking for a “home run” pick with possibly poor college production but great athleticism and measurables as opposed to a really good “complimentary” piece.

Wagner will certainly be there at 10. It wouldn’t even be a bad idea to reach a little on Jared Butler.


Lol why would picking 10 be any different than picking 8 or 9? Tommy has his type.. I don't think that changes based on a handful of spots.
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Post#1339 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:36 am

nate33 wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
DCZards wrote:I’ve seen Cameron Thomas compared to Lou Williams, which sounds about right. He can score the ball and he gets to the FT line.

I’d expect Thomas to go late first round and have a long NBA career as an off the bench instant offense type...a la Jordan Clarkson.


Lou Williams would be a better player than lottery selected Rui Hachimura and Deni Advidja, who neither one project to be difference makers.

I disagree.

Lou Williams is a terrible defender who is exploited in the playoffs every year. Hachimura and Avdija can at least defend their position, which is a prerequisite for any playoff caliber starter. They're not yet consistent enough or skilled enough to be relied upon offensively, but I think they'll get there.

.
I don’t know.

Here’s a link to every single playoff game log of LouWill

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willilo02/gamelog-playoffs/

I can’t make my mind up after looking at the game scores and the plus minuses. I would say it’s a pretty mixed bag where he has had some super strong playoffs and some weak ones.
I think they should Trade Beal

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Post#1340 » by nate33 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:02 am

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
Lou Williams would be a better player than lottery selected Rui Hachimura and Deni Advidja, who neither one project to be difference makers.

I disagree.

Lou Williams is a terrible defender who is exploited in the playoffs every year. Hachimura and Avdija can at least defend their position, which is a prerequisite for any playoff caliber starter. They're not yet consistent enough or skilled enough to be relied upon offensively, but I think they'll get there.

.
I don’t know.

Here’s a link to every single playoff game log of LouWill

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willilo02/gamelog-playoffs/

I can’t make my mind up after looking at the game scores and the plus minuses. I would say it’s a pretty mixed bag where he has had some super strong playoffs and some weak ones.

He has a career playoff TS% of .494. And that's against backups.

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