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2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :)

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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1341 » by DCZards » Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:31 am

nate33 wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
nate33 wrote:I disagree.

Lou Williams is a terrible defender who is exploited in the playoffs every year. Hachimura and Avdija can at least defend their position, which is a prerequisite for any playoff caliber starter. They're not yet consistent enough or skilled enough to be relied upon offensively, but I think they'll get there.

.
I don’t know.

Here’s a link to every single playoff game log of LouWill

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willilo02/gamelog-playoffs/

I can’t make my mind up after looking at the game scores and the plus minuses. I would say it’s a pretty mixed bag where he has had some super strong playoffs and some weak ones.

He has a career playoff TS% of .494. And that's against backups.

That last part is not entirely true. Lou may be a 6th man but he typically ends up playing a ton of minutes against the other team's starters, especially down the stretch of close games.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1342 » by nate33 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:05 pm

Pretty good read.

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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1343 » by Shoe » Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:33 pm

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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1344 » by payitforward » Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:43 pm

I have an odd idea, probably not a good one either; give me some feedback.

I'd really like to get Hutchison off the roster for next year. If someone would give us a R2 pick, any R2 pick this year, I'd grab it -- of course. But... I doubt that's happening. More likely, Hutchison has negative value.

In that case, suppose we have the #10 pick, would we trade it along with Hutchison for a somewhat lower set of picks? Ordinarily, for example, you would not trade the #10 for the #17 & the #38 (both owned by OKC) -- but in this case, would we make that trade with the Thunder if they also took Hutchison in the deal?

Those don't have to be the picks; real question is whether this kind of a deal would make sense....
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1345 » by NatP4 » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:40 pm

nate33 wrote:Pretty good read.

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Wasserman is one of the best.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1346 » by doclinkin » Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:00 pm

nate33 wrote:Pretty good read.

(Wasserman top 50)


If healthy I have zero doubt Neemias Queta will be among the top producers of this class. Top 10, to say nothing of the top 50. Especially early. I'm not sure why every mock and scout has a blind spot here. I'm happy if we can get him lower down, though he does not fit the profile of a Tommy pick.

9'3" standing reach, good footwork, smart passing, improvement in every key stat. Bringing his FT% above 70% (from 56% as a freshman) shows he is a grinder off court. Fouls and TOs decreasing despite increased usage are excellent signs. Assists improving every year despite zero talent around him is a real indicator of BBIQ and love of the game. Defensively he runs hard, one of the few true Bigs you see who can manage a chasedown block in transition. He may look plodding but his long strides eat up ground to pass guards and wing players who think they are in the clear on a breakaway. The position of Big is undervalued but still valuable. As players like Isaiah Stewart and Xavier Tillman are showing early in their careers.

The Spurs will pick him up late and laugh at everyone else.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1347 » by DCZards » Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:34 pm

Now that the Zards have Bryant and Gafford I wouldn’t draft Queta. I’m not convinced that Queta is going to be anything special and the Zards have more urgent needs for wing and backcourt players.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1348 » by doclinkin » Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:00 am

DCZards wrote:Now that the Zards have Bryant and Gafford I wouldn’t draft Queta. I’m not convinced that Queta is going to be anything special and the Zards have more urgent needs for wing and backcourt players.


They won't and we have a high pick and he will go way later. And we don't trade down. And don't have a 2nd round pick. And if we bought one he is not the sort of player that Tommy likes to buy. So it's a moot point. I just know he will be productive, and the sort of player you get good value from if you can steal late. I disagree with the mocks as far as his value. And am curious about that. I'd be interested to see the knocks against a guy with legit NBA size who was a finalist for the Naismith defensive POY, and is smart in his steals, blocks, defensive rebounds, spacing. And who passes. And hits a jumper out to the elbow. And runs hard. Only about 10-15 players a year really stick in the league and do much. He looks to me like one who will.

For me he was a trade down target paired with Davion Mitchell/future pick(s), if we didn't win a top 4 lotto pick and were in the 6-10 range. Though Mitchell has been climbing into the lottery, and we have been falling later, reducing what we could demand in a trade down.

That said, while it may be sacrilege on this board, I think Bryant is something of a dead end in terms of his long term utility unless he figures out how to play defense better. He's a useful trading piece, and if he can play next to a mobile defender then maybe he has value, but I'm skeptical if a team can win with a big who is unable to move his feet from side to side and anticipate spacing on the defensive end.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1349 » by DCZards » Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:41 am

doclinkin wrote:That said, while it may be sacrilege on this board, I think Bryant is something of a dead end in terms of his long term utility unless he figures out how to play defense better. He's a useful trading piece, and if he can play next to a mobile defender then maybe he has value, but I'm skeptical if a team can win with a big who is unable to move his feet from side to side and anticipate spacing on the defensive end.

I'm actually curious to see to what extent Bryant and Gafford can play together. I think it could work on the offensive end given TB's ability to make the midrange jumper and shoot the 3 ball. It will be a challenge on defense though given Bryant's shortcomings on that end of the court.

OTOH, Gafford's shotblocking should help mitigate Bryant's inability to stay in front of his man.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1350 » by payitforward » Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:48 pm

I agree with Doc about Neemias Queta's upside.

But, his upside doesn't lead to talking about him as a lottery pick. He's most likely to go in R2 -- pretty low in R2 as well. He'd be a great pick at that point.

Didn't someone mention Allen Flanigan a day or so ago? He's another guy well worth a late R2 pick.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1351 » by nate33 » Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:03 pm

doclinkin wrote:That said, while it may be sacrilege on this board, I think Bryant is something of a dead end in terms of his long term utility unless he figures out how to play defense better. He's a useful trading piece, and if he can play next to a mobile defender then maybe he has value, but I'm skeptical if a team can win with a big who is unable to move his feet from side to side and anticipate spacing on the defensive end.

I don't think it's sacrilege at all. Bryant is the kind of guy that gets played off the floor in the playoffs. I think it is unlikely that we can be a contending team with Bryant at starting center, unless he improves a great deal defensively. He has improved a bit, but he has a lot more to go.

That said, even if Bryant never gets there defensively, I do think he could be very useful as a backup center. We have sorely missed his presence on offense. We were the 15th best offense in the league last year and the 11th best offense in the first 9 games of the season when Bryant played. Since Bryant went down, we are the 26th ranked offense.

I envision a lineup where we play Gafford when Beal and Westbrook are on the floor together, because there aren't many touches available for our center anyway when those two are on the floor, except for lob dunks. We should probably start Bertans with them to really boost the floor spacing.

On the second unit, Bryant serves as the complementary offensive threat to go along with whichever of Beal or Westbrook is on the floor with him. The second unit can just run Bryant pick-and-rolls all day against weaker 2nd unit defenders. That will be a whole lot better than the Westbrook isolations we see our current 2nd unit run. (If not for Lopez suddenly becoming Kevin McHale, our 2nd unit wouldn't score at all.)
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1352 » by Dark Faze » Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:12 pm

Moody looks like he might be a perfect fit? Terrific wing span and enough height to be a 3, doesn't need the ball to score but is good at getting fouled when driving, rebounds well. Seems like a perfect fit next to Brad and Russ and will be available with our pick.

edit: Actually at 10th seed or worse we would probably need some luck.
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Post#1353 » by Ruzious » Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:31 pm

Dark Faze wrote:Moody looks like he might be a perfect fit? Terrific wing span and enough height to be a 3, doesn't need the ball to score but is good at getting fouled when driving, rebounds well. Seems like a perfect fit next to Brad and Russ and will be available with our pick.

edit: Actually at 10th seed or worse we would probably need some luck.

Moody and Wagner hurt their stock in the NCAA Tournament, so one of them could be there at 10. I's prefer Wagner, but Moody's a good versatile 2-way player.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1354 » by NatP4 » Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:33 pm

I’m probably passing on Moody. Not a good defender, one dimensional catch and shoot guy on offense. Wants no part of the big moment or big game. Wagner is better at everything IMO.
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Post#1355 » by Ruzious » Thu Apr 22, 2021 3:06 pm

Nat noted in another thread that the Wiz are 27th in offense since the trade deadline. Gotta figure a lot of that is because of the team's lack of 3 point shooting. That's why I keep saying - get Sam Hauser https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/sam-hauser-1.html He's 23 and not on any mocks that I see, but he's a 6'8 218 lber who can flat out shoot - and he's actually capable of scoring in other ways. Yeah, he'll be a negative on defense, but playing for UVA - he'll at least be a smart defender, and he's got that 6'8 size that helps in switches. People will say... Oh, he only scored 16 points a game - but that's with UVA's slow-paced offense. Per 100 possessions, he scored 30.7 points. He's not a 1 year wonder; his career TS% is 63.4, and his eFG is .610 - which are almost exactly the same #s he had last season. I'm telling ya - Get Sam Hauser. Buy a late 2nd to make sure ya get him. And do the same with Jay Huff. Dirt cheap talent that will be ready to play as rookies - both mature 23 year olds that went to school close by.

CCJ, if you get a chance to review UVA games, I'd be interested in your takes on them. Too bad Severn Hoos doesn't post here anymore. He's a UVA grad and great poster here who always had insights on their players.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1356 » by Shoe » Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:03 pm

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Post#1357 » by Dark Faze » Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:31 pm

Ruzious wrote:CCJ, if you get a chance to review UVA games, I'd be interested in your takes on them. Too bad Severn Hoos doesn't post here anymore. He's a UVA grad and great poster here who always had insights on their players.


Wow, Virginia + that resume + 6'8? Sign me up.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1358 » by Ruzious » Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:34 pm

I'm thinking I should go back to my original instincts - now that we'll likely pick toward the end of the lottery and now that Gafford has arrived. My 2 favorite players all season were Butler of Baylor and Charles Bassey. Usually the best thing is to go with your gut and go after the players you like. With our 1st pick, I'll pick Bassey. That frees us up to trade Bryant for a late 1st and late 2nd (and filler). I use the late 1st on Butler and the late 2nd on Hauser. Reasons I like Bassey - he completely dominated his conference, his offensive game is similar to Bryant's - he's a dominant inside scorer with the makings of 3 point range, he was his conference's DPOY as a freshman, and he worked his way back from a bad injury with perhaps more game left to show.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1359 » by Kanyewest » Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:10 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
Lou Williams would be a better player than lottery selected Rui Hachimura and Deni Advidja, who neither one project to be difference makers.

I disagree.

Lou Williams is a terrible defender who is exploited in the playoffs every year. Hachimura and Avdija can at least defend their position, which is a prerequisite for any playoff caliber starter. They're not yet consistent enough or skilled enough to be relied upon offensively, but I think they'll get there.

.
I don’t know.

Here’s a link to every single playoff game log of LouWill

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willilo02/gamelog-playoffs/

I can’t make my mind up after looking at the game scores and the plus minuses. I would say it’s a pretty mixed bag where he has had some super strong playoffs and some weak ones.


A couple of recent ones stand out as pretty bad especially a few times when his teams on paper were better.

In 2015 when the Wizards swept the Raptors, he had a TS% of 43.3 TS% https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willilo02/gamelog-playoffs-advanced/#38-41-sum:pgl_advanced_playoffs

in 2017 against the Spurs after Kawhi got injured, he had a TS% of 41.4% https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willilo02/gamelog-playoffs-advanced/#47-52-sum:pgl_advanced_playoffs

In 2020 against the Nuggets after the Clippers blew a 3-1 Lead, Lou Williams had a TS% of 41.3% https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willilo02/gamelog-playoffs-advanced/#47-52-sum:pgl_advanced_playoffs


Aside from the Raptors/Wizards series, a better performance from Lou Williams closer to his regular seasons may have swung those series.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1360 » by doclinkin » Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:13 am

Ruzious wrote:I'm thinking I should go back to my original instincts - now that we'll likely pick toward the end of the lottery and now that Gafford has arrived. My 2 favorite players all season were Butler of Baylor and Charles Bassey. Usually the best thing is to go with your gut and go after the players you like. With our 1st pick, I'll pick Bassey. That frees us up to trade Bryant for a late 1st and late 2nd (and filler). I use the late 1st on Butler and the late 2nd on Hauser. Reasons I like Bassey - he completely dominated his conference, his offensive game is similar to Bryant's - he's a dominant inside scorer with the makings of 3 point range, he was his conference's DPOY as a freshman, and he worked his way back from a bad injury with perhaps more game left to show.


Bassey is being mocked in the 2nd round most places I look. If you were able to get him on a trade back he would be a better value. Or if he is still on the board by round 2 and you can buy a pick.

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