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2021 Draft thread. Woo! 15th pick here we come! Hoo. Ray.

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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1621 » by Ruzious » Mon Jun 7, 2021 7:23 am

The thing I worry about with Ayayi is that he reminds me of Jerian Grant - who I liked on some very good Notre Dame teams (everyone on those teams could shoot). They're similarly sized and had similar stats as juniors. Grant shot over 40% from 3 as a junior - though fell well off as a senior and I think the 3 ended up being his undoing as a pro. He had a lot steals in college, and that didn't carry over to the NBA. Ayayi has great 2 point shooting percentages for a guard - though he didn't take very many - it wasn't his role. He was a 4th or 5th option at Gonzaga. I'm not sure he has any one thing that he'll excel at in the NBA. His future may depend on how well he hits the 3, and he had trouble with it until his junior year - when he made 38.9%. Good 2nd round value - but I wouldn't pick him in the 1st.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1622 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Mon Jun 7, 2021 8:01 am

Daniel Gafford is highly effective. Isaiah Jackson strikes me as a similarly skilled defender and rim runner.

Trevion Williams scores on the low blocks, passes out of double teams, and he’s also a good rebounder. I’m not sure why he’s not a mid first round pick.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1623 » by Ruzious » Mon Jun 7, 2021 8:14 am

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Daniel Gafford is highly effective. Isaiah Jackson strikes me as a similarly skilled defender and rim runner.

Trevion Williams scores on the low blocks, passes out of double teams, and he’s also a good rebounder. I’m not sure why he’s not a mid first round pick.

Jackson is a lot like Gafford. If we hadn't traded for Gafford, I'd be interested in him. Williams... I don't know if I've even seen him play. He seems to have some interesting qualities - above average passer and rebounder - but I'd worry that he has a low shooting percentage for a big that's just a low post scorer, and he's just a 50% foul shooter and a relatively inefficient scorer. The scouting reports say he's just an average athlete, and he's not a rim defender, so he likely won't be a first rounder.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1624 » by NatP4 » Mon Jun 7, 2021 1:23 pm

Wagner had a TS of .577 in college and shot over 58% on 2s and 83.5% at the free throw line. 3.8 assists to 1.6 turnovers per40.

We aren’t talking about a prospect like Hachimura, who didn’t even attempt 3s in college and was not a good defender and could not pass at all. Really, the only thing he did well was score from inside the 3pt line. We aren’t talking about a prospect like Avdija that couldn’t really shoot consistently, couldn’t make free throws, also was not a good defender.

Wagner will have the lowest usage of any starter, from day 1, he knows how to cut, how to handle the ball, how to make high level passes in the pick and roll as a secondary playmaker, how to finish at the basket with a variety of moves and a high level floater, he’s elite in transition, and he makes his free throws. He wasn’t just above average defensively, he was the best defender in the country, or maybe 2nd best behind Evan Mobley. He will get a ton of steals and provide elite team defense/help rotations and secondary rim protections.

Positionally, Wagner is strong enough to be able to step in and play the 4 and have a massive quickness advantage against other 4s. He’ll be a matchup problem with his ability to attack the basket off the dribble and make the right passes. His 3pt shooting will be a big time floor spacing asset at the 4. It’s also a no brainer to switch everything with Wagner at the 4. He will be elite defensively against all guards. Lateral quickness is elite.

The only thing I think Wagner will lack on day 1 is the ability to be an elite 3pt shooter, but even that will come within the first couple of seasons. That’s why he was on the prospect radar before coming to Michigan. Was an elite shooter in Germany. He will initially be a passable 34-36% 3pt shooter on a solid amount of attempts. Remember, he’s still only 19 on draft night. Younger than Mobley&Suggs, and the same age as Cade Cunningham. He has plenty of skills that will get him on the floor and allow him to succeed immediately. There are very few players in the draft that are as NBA ready.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1625 » by mhd » Mon Jun 7, 2021 1:26 pm

NatP4 wrote:Wagner had a TS of .577 in college and shot over 58% on 2s and 83.5% at the free throw line. 3.8 assists to 1.6 turnovers per40.

We aren’t talking about a prospect like Hachimura, who didn’t even attempt 3s in college and was not a good defender and could not pass at all. Really, the only thing he did well was score from inside the 3pt line. We aren’t talking about a prospect like Avdija that couldn’t really shoot consistently, couldn’t make free throws, also was not a good defender.

Wagner will have the lowest usage of any starter, from day 1, he knows how to cut, how to handle the ball, how to make high level passes in the pick and roll as a secondary playmaker, how to finish at the basket with a variety of moves and a high level floater, he’s elite in transition, and he makes his free throws. He wasn’t just above average defensively, he was the best defender in the country, or maybe 2nd best behind Evan Mobley. He will get a ton of steals and provide elite team defense/help rotations and secondary rim protections.

Positionally, Wagner is strong enough to be able to step in and play the 4 and have a massive quickness advantage against other 4s. He’ll be a matchup problem with his ability to attack the basket off the dribble and make the right passes. His 3pt shooting will be a big time floor spacing asset at the 4. It’s also a no brainer to switch everything with Wagner at the 4. He will be elite defensively against all guards. Lateral quickness is elite.

The only thing I think Wagner will lack on day 1 is the ability to be an elite 3pt shooter, but even that will come within the first couple of seasons. That’s why he was on the prospect radar before coming to Michigan. Was an elite shooter in Germany. He will initially be a passable 34-36% 3pt shooter on a solid amount of attempts. Remember, he’s still only 19 on draft night. Younger than Mobley&Suggs, and the same age as Cade Cunningham. He has plenty of skills that will get him on the floor and allow him to succeed immediately. There are very few players in the draft that are as NBA ready.



I'd take him at 15 easily, but he won't be there.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1626 » by NatP4 » Mon Jun 7, 2021 1:30 pm

Ruzious wrote:The thing I worry about with Ayayi is that he reminds me of Jerian Grant - who I liked on some very good Notre Dame teams (everyone on those teams could shoot). They're similarly sized and had similar stats as juniors. Grant shot over 40% from 3 as a junior - though fell well off as a senior and I think the 3 ended up being his undoing as a pro. He had a lot steals in college, and that didn't carry over to the NBA. Ayayi has great 2 point shooting percentages for a guard - though he didn't take very many - it wasn't his role. He was a 4th or 5th option at Gonzaga. I'm not sure he has any one thing that he'll excel at in the NBA. His future may depend on how well he hits the 3, and he had trouble with it until his junior year - when he made 38.9%. Good 2nd round value - but I wouldn't pick him in the 1st.



To be fair, whenever Jerian Grant has been given an opportunity to actually play in the NBA, he’s been pretty solid. That is a really solid comparison though. They play slightly different games, but after looking it up, Grant actually took 3s at a higher rate than Ayayi did in college, which surprises me. Ayayi was the 4th option for the Zags, but Grant was on one of the best Notre Dame team of all time with a handful of elite offensive options.

Good reason to pump the brakes a bit though.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1627 » by NatP4 » Mon Jun 7, 2021 1:37 pm

I could see teams shooting for the moon with the flashier athletic ability of some of the other wing prospects, allowing Wagner to drop to 15ish. If he’s out of the top 12ish and the price isn’t ridiculous, I would absolutely trade up.

I would have him ranked top 5ish only below that top tier of Suggs/Mobley/Cunningham and possibly Green. Teams will look at Keon Johnson or Ziaire Williams and convince themselves that a little time in the gym will turn them into Demar Derozan and Paul George and that Jalen Johnson is the next Ben Simmons. Moody will be drafted high simply because he’s 6’8 with a 7 foot wingspan and can shoot. Doesn’t do much else. Don’t get me started on Kuminga. Does literally nothing well.

People will and have already been labeling Wagner as a “role player ceiling” guy.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1628 » by Ruzious » Mon Jun 7, 2021 1:38 pm

NatP4 wrote:Wagner had a TS of .577 in college and shot over 58% on 2s and 83.5% at the free throw line. 3.8 assists to 1.6 turnovers per40.

We aren’t talking about a prospect like Hachimura, who didn’t even attempt 3s in college and was not a good defender and could not pass at all. Really, the only thing he did well was score from inside the 3pt line. We aren’t talking about a prospect like Avdija that couldn’t really shoot consistently, couldn’t make free throws, also was not a good defender.

Wagner will have the lowest usage of any starter, from day 1, he knows how to cut, how to handle the ball, how to make high level passes in the pick and roll as a secondary playmaker, how to finish at the basket with a variety of moves and a high level floater, he’s elite in transition, and he makes his free throws. He wasn’t just above average defensively, he was the best defender in the country, or maybe 2nd best behind Evan Mobley. He will get a ton of steals and provide elite team defense/help rotations and secondary rim protections.

Positionally, Wagner is strong enough to be able to step in and play the 4 and have a massive quickness advantage against other 4s. He’ll be a matchup problem with his ability to attack the basket off the dribble and make the right passes. His 3pt shooting will be a big time floor spacing asset at the 4. It’s also a no brainer to switch everything with Wagner at the 4. He will be elite defensively against all guards. Lateral quickness is elite.

The only thing I think Wagner will lack on day 1 is the ability to be an elite 3pt shooter, but even that will come within the first couple of seasons. That’s why he was on the prospect radar before coming to Michigan. Was an elite shooter in Germany. He will initially be a passable 34-36% 3pt shooter on a solid amount of attempts. Remember, he’s still only 19 on draft night. Younger than Mobley&Suggs, and the same age as Cade Cunningham. He has plenty of skills that will get him on the floor and allow him to succeed immediately. There are very few players in the draft that are as NBA ready.

Wagner was a pro in Germany - and a good 3 point shooter there. And he does have good form on his shot, so there is a lot of reason to expect that his falloff in 3 point shooting at the end of last season was a fluke.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1629 » by Ruzious » Mon Jun 7, 2021 1:47 pm

NatP4 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:The thing I worry about with Ayayi is that he reminds me of Jerian Grant - who I liked on some very good Notre Dame teams (everyone on those teams could shoot). They're similarly sized and had similar stats as juniors. Grant shot over 40% from 3 as a junior - though fell well off as a senior and I think the 3 ended up being his undoing as a pro. He had a lot steals in college, and that didn't carry over to the NBA. Ayayi has great 2 point shooting percentages for a guard - though he didn't take very many - it wasn't his role. He was a 4th or 5th option at Gonzaga. I'm not sure he has any one thing that he'll excel at in the NBA. His future may depend on how well he hits the 3, and he had trouble with it until his junior year - when he made 38.9%. Good 2nd round value - but I wouldn't pick him in the 1st.



To be fair, whenever Jerian Grant has been given an opportunity to actually play in the NBA, he’s been pretty solid. That is a really solid comparison though. They play slightly different games, but after looking it up, Grant actually took 3s at a higher rate than Ayayi did in college, which surprises me. Ayayi was the 4th option for the Zags, but Grant was on one of the best Notre Dame team of all time with a handful of elite offensive options.

Good reason to pump the brakes a bit though.

I never would have guessed Connaughton would become the best pro from those teams. I thought Grant and Bonzi Colson would. Colson might have - except he got really fat. All of them were like 6'5.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1630 » by NatP4 » Mon Jun 7, 2021 2:02 pm

Ruzious wrote:
NatP4 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:The thing I worry about with Ayayi is that he reminds me of Jerian Grant - who I liked on some very good Notre Dame teams (everyone on those teams could shoot). They're similarly sized and had similar stats as juniors. Grant shot over 40% from 3 as a junior - though fell well off as a senior and I think the 3 ended up being his undoing as a pro. He had a lot steals in college, and that didn't carry over to the NBA. Ayayi has great 2 point shooting percentages for a guard - though he didn't take very many - it wasn't his role. He was a 4th or 5th option at Gonzaga. I'm not sure he has any one thing that he'll excel at in the NBA. His future may depend on how well he hits the 3, and he had trouble with it until his junior year - when he made 38.9%. Good 2nd round value - but I wouldn't pick him in the 1st.



To be fair, whenever Jerian Grant has been given an opportunity to actually play in the NBA, he’s been pretty solid. That is a really solid comparison though. They play slightly different games, but after looking it up, Grant actually took 3s at a higher rate than Ayayi did in college, which surprises me. Ayayi was the 4th option for the Zags, but Grant was on one of the best Notre Dame teams of all time with a handful of elite offensive options.

Good reason to pump the brakes a bit though.

I never would have guessed Connaughton would become the best pro from those teams. I thought Grant and Bonzi Colson would. Colson might have - except he got really fat. All of them were like 6'5.


I thought Colson would turn into a great NBA role player, and Demetrius Jackson was the big time 5 star recruit on that team that drew some comparisons to Eric Bledsoe, but never really panned out in the NBA. Such an awesome team.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1631 » by nate33 » Mon Jun 7, 2021 4:01 pm

Ruzious wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Wagner had a TS of .577 in college and shot over 58% on 2s and 83.5% at the free throw line. 3.8 assists to 1.6 turnovers per40.

We aren’t talking about a prospect like Hachimura, who didn’t even attempt 3s in college and was not a good defender and could not pass at all. Really, the only thing he did well was score from inside the 3pt line. We aren’t talking about a prospect like Avdija that couldn’t really shoot consistently, couldn’t make free throws, also was not a good defender.

Wagner will have the lowest usage of any starter, from day 1, he knows how to cut, how to handle the ball, how to make high level passes in the pick and roll as a secondary playmaker, how to finish at the basket with a variety of moves and a high level floater, he’s elite in transition, and he makes his free throws. He wasn’t just above average defensively, he was the best defender in the country, or maybe 2nd best behind Evan Mobley. He will get a ton of steals and provide elite team defense/help rotations and secondary rim protections.

Positionally, Wagner is strong enough to be able to step in and play the 4 and have a massive quickness advantage against other 4s. He’ll be a matchup problem with his ability to attack the basket off the dribble and make the right passes. His 3pt shooting will be a big time floor spacing asset at the 4. It’s also a no brainer to switch everything with Wagner at the 4. He will be elite defensively against all guards. Lateral quickness is elite.

The only thing I think Wagner will lack on day 1 is the ability to be an elite 3pt shooter, but even that will come within the first couple of seasons. That’s why he was on the prospect radar before coming to Michigan. Was an elite shooter in Germany. He will initially be a passable 34-36% 3pt shooter on a solid amount of attempts. Remember, he’s still only 19 on draft night. Younger than Mobley&Suggs, and the same age as Cade Cunningham. He has plenty of skills that will get him on the floor and allow him to succeed immediately. There are very few players in the draft that are as NBA ready.

Wagner was a pro in Germany - and a good 3 point shooter there. And he does have good form on his shot, so there is a lot of reason to expect that his falloff in 3 point shooting at the end of last season was a fluke.

Wagner has a pretty slow wind-up on his shot though, a lot like his older brother. Only at 6-8, it will be more of an issue. Hopefully, he can speed up his release with practice.

I do love his defensive skillset though. I think he can be a Robert Covington type of player on defense. On offense, he'll probably play quite a big like Mo. Mo never blew you away with his offensive skillset, but he just knew where to be, how to cut, and how to finish around the rim so that he offensive production was always better than one would expect.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1632 » by NatP4 » Mon Jun 7, 2021 4:06 pm

The ball comes out of his hand smoothly and he seems to be a natural shooter. NBA trainers will make some easy mechanical tweaks to his form. Like Nate said, he has a really slow and inconsistent dip which leads to a slowish release. His elbow also sort of sticks out kind of like Otto when he first entered the league.

Nothing broken though, just projects more like a 36% guy as of now than an elite shooter.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1633 » by payitforward » Mon Jun 7, 2021 4:57 pm

DCZards wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
NatP4 wrote:I think Jared Butler is the best of both worlds, and definitely going to be there at 15.

He's a good trade down option but a poor value pick at 15 - considering most mocks have him as a late 1st. I like him a lot - in the manner that I like George Hill - as an excellent 3rd guard. I don't know about him as a future starter.

It’s a big mistake to base your draft day decisions on the mocks, especially when you’re not drafting in the top 5 or 6.

Those mocks are so often very, very wrong—and all over the place. Every year we talk here about players that the mocks were dead wrong about.

If you believe Butler is the best player/fit at 15 you take him and don’t look back.

Absolutely! & anyway, if you're going to pick someone based on the mock drafts, first you'll have to pick which mock draft to rely on!

The main use of the mock drafts is to be stimulated to look at some players you might have overlooked. Once you have some names to investigate, you start by looking at their college numbers. There are no good NBA players who put up bad numbers in college. Period.

Having done that you can start the real research.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1634 » by payitforward » Mon Jun 7, 2021 5:03 pm

nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:It’s a mistake to factor in Scott Brooks or Russell Westbrook to any draft day decisions.

IMO, you have a core of Hachimura, Avdija, Gafford, Beal, Bertans, and Bryant. What do we need to add to that to become a championship contender? I would say a high level guard and a lockdown perimeter defender.

That's just not realistic, particularly with respect to Westbrook.

We aren't going to draft for a distant future in the post-Westbrook era. We are drafting for now. Beal isn't waiting around for 2 more years.

SUPERBALLMAN makes a very important point that this team is not built to accommodate a non-shooting, point-forward type. It's not the kind of player we need unless there is a complete overhaul in coaching and offensive philosophy, and also, Westbrook would need a brain transplant. If we draft Giddey, we better have a plan in place to trade Westbrook and to either trade Beal or somehow get him on board with a 2-year rebuild. And I don't think that's happening.

If we don't trade the pick, we are going to draft a guy who can fill a role almost immediately. Somebody like Kispert, Moody, Butler or Wagner.

...Or trade down if we don't think there's enough of that kind of value available at #15. OTOH, for better or worse Tommy may view the draft as future-oriented & rely on other kinds of moves to give us the "jolt" we seem to think we need for next year.

I try not to forget one of the first things Tommy said after taking over: "We're going to build this the right way -- patiently."
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1635 » by payitforward » Mon Jun 7, 2021 5:16 pm

IMO, Ayayi is as close to a lock as you'll find outside the lottery this year. He's terrific.

Livers is a very good find!
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1636 » by Illuminaire » Mon Jun 7, 2021 5:46 pm

mhd wrote:
NatP4 wrote:
The only thing I think Wagner will lack on day 1 is the ability to be an elite 3pt shooter, but even that will come within the first couple of seasons. That’s why he was on the prospect radar before coming to Michigan. Was an elite shooter in Germany. He will initially be a passable 34-36% 3pt shooter on a solid amount of attempts. Remember, he’s still only 19 on draft night. Younger than Mobley&Suggs, and the same age as Cade Cunningham. He has plenty of skills that will get him on the floor and allow him to succeed immediately. There are very few players in the draft that are as NBA ready.



I'd take him at 15 easily, but he won't be there.



100%. My Pels gonna take him at 10. :D
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1637 » by Ruzious » Mon Jun 7, 2021 5:46 pm

payitforward wrote:
DCZards wrote:
Ruzious wrote:He's a good trade down option but a poor value pick at 15 - considering most mocks have him as a late 1st. I like him a lot - in the manner that I like George Hill - as an excellent 3rd guard. I don't know about him as a future starter.

It’s a big mistake to base your draft day decisions on the mocks, especially when you’re not drafting in the top 5 or 6.

Those mocks are so often very, very wrong—and all over the place. Every year we talk here about players that the mocks were dead wrong about.

If you believe Butler is the best player/fit at 15 you take him and don’t look back.

Absolutely! & anyway, if you're going to pick someone based on the mock drafts, first you'll have to pick which mock draft to rely on!

The main use of the mock drafts is to be stimulated to look at some players you might have overlooked. Once you have some names to investigate, you start by looking at their college numbers. There are no good NBA players who put up bad numbers in college. Period.

Having done that you can start the real research.

WE AREN'T REAL GMS!!!

And we use mocks to get a feel for where others think players will go.

We do that because... all together now... WE AREN'T REAL GMS!
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1638 » by payitforward » Mon Jun 7, 2021 6:38 pm

Oh, really nice. Put it in caps why don't you. Twice. Huh.

Why don't you read the URL for this site. Tell you something.... & anyway, "real" is over-rated.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1639 » by Ruzious » Mon Jun 7, 2021 6:49 pm

payitforward wrote:Oh, really nice. Put it in caps why don't you. Twice. Huh.

Why don't you read the URL for this site. Tell you something.... & anyway, "real" is over-rated.

Sometimes people don't listen unless I put things in caps. :nod: I apologize if I offended.
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Re: 2021 Draft thread. Evan Mobley here we come! :) 

Post#1640 » by payitforward » Tue Jun 8, 2021 8:06 pm

Deeply, Ruz, deeply.

Also shallowly. Don't want to leave that out.
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