2021 Draft thread. Woo! 15th pick here we come! Hoo. Ray.

[Ruzious]

Jalen Johnson is playing well again after returning from injury:

Watch on YouTube

He's a 6-9 point forward who stuffs the box score. Per 36, he is currently averaging:
19.6 points
13.1 rebounds
4.1 assists
3.3 blocks
1.6 steals
.605 TS%
.400 3P% (on low attempts with poor FT shooting, so, grain of salt)

Why isn't he in the conversation for top 3?

He also looks a bit long-limbed and gangly on the court, with huge feet, as if he is still growing. I wonder if he'll get to 6-10.

Last night was huge for Johnson. Before that, his playing time was all over the place, his 3pt&FT% were unimpressive, his turnover numbers were awful. 7 assists and 0 turnovers last night, 7-10 on free throws, made his only 3, filled the stat sheet.

You’re right, that game put him right back in the top 3 conversation. He’s an impressive prospect.

Yeah, before that game he had played a total of 99 minutes and had gone way downhill after a very impressive 1st game of the season. So he's had 2 excellent games and really nothing else positive. So I need to see more to rate him anywhere near the top 3.

[nate33]

We don't know enough about Kuminga and Green. They could potentially be superb top 3 caliber prospects as well. I look forward to the G-League and them playing some real competition.

[NatP4]

It’s such a strange group after the top 4-5 prospects. The two G league guys, Green&Kuminga have physical tools but don’t seem to have a ton of basketball IQ/feel for the game. Greg Brown from Texas has a 53.3% TS as a PF, and 28 turnovers to 1 assist. BJ Boston is shooting <35% from the field and also has more turnovers than assists as a guard. Then you start to get to some of the mid major prospects and upperclassmen.

I would assume Sharife Cooper is going to shoot up the mock drafts along with a couple international prospects.

Hopefully the wizards can tank well enough to not have to look much further than Suggs/Cunningham/Mobley, because it’s going to be tough in the 4-15 range.

[DCsOwn]

We don't know enough about Kuminga and Green. They could potentially be superb top 3 caliber prospects as well. I look forward to the G-League and them playing some real competition.

I was just going to type this in response to the comment about there being a defined top 3. According to Ford and Hollinger, scouts have been highly effusive in their praise of Kuminga's performance in D League practices and scrimmages and the physical talent is SUPER conspicuous. Seems like a great kid as well Also important to remember that Kuminga reclassified, so he's still quite young, but the ceiling appears to be lofty.

Watch on YouTube

Green's also a preposterously dynamic sg prospect that, if he can burnish his skill over time, probably turns into a Zach Lavine type player.

[nate33]

Green looked really impressive in the G-League scrimmage. They guy is quick, athletic, and can get buckets. And he's not afraid of contact. I didn't see much playmaking though.

Watch on YouTube

I watched a little of Kuminga and was less impressed. He did a lot of bully ball, which barely worked against G-League competition and probably won't work in the NBA.

[NatP4]

Green looked really impressive in the G-League scrimmage. They guy is quick, athletic, and can get buckets. And he's not afraid of contact. I didn't see much playmaking though.

Watch on YouTube

I watched a little of Kuminga and was less impressed. He did a lot of bully ball, which barely worked against G-League competition and probably won't work in the NBA.

You won’t see much playmaking with either of them. Of course, let’s wait to see both of them in actual G-League games, obviously. So far, they both seem to have that AAU type of game, with little or no vision and passing. Kuminga had a bizarre sequence in the scrimmages in which he put his head down attempted to spin back and forth over and over and shot over double teams about 4 consecutive possessions. It was hard to watch.

[NatP4]

Which prospects elected to skip college, play in the G-league, and turned out to be good NBA players in recent years? (Genuinely asking)

[DCsOwn]

Green looked really impressive in the G-League scrimmage. They guy is quick, athletic, and can get buckets. And he's not afraid of contact. I didn't see much playmaking though.

Watch on YouTube

I watched a little of Kuminga and was less impressed. He did a lot of bully ball, which barely worked against G-League competition and probably won't work in the NBA.

In re Kuminga and bully ball, remember (and you're well aware of this I know), although they're less skilled in the G League, most of the players are still more physically developed than your average college kid. An 18 yr old kid with a late year birthday that's 6'8 210 pounds presently that might not be finished growing from a height perspective and most certainly isn't done developing from a strength perspective probably does get to a point where he's able to physically punish NBA wings fairly early on in his NBA career, especially when you factor in his level of twitchiness and vertical explosive ability.

[nate33]

Green looked really impressive in the G-League scrimmage. They guy is quick, athletic, and can get buckets. And he's not afraid of contact. I didn't see much playmaking though.

Watch on YouTube

I watched a little of Kuminga and was less impressed. He did a lot of bully ball, which barely worked against G-League competition and probably won't work in the NBA.

In re Kuminga and bully ball, remember (and you're well aware of this I know), although they're less skilled in the G League, most of the players are still more physically developed than your average college kid. An 18 yr old kid with a late year birthday that's 6'8 210 pounds presently that might not be finished growing from a height perspective and most certainly isn't done developing from a strength perspective probably does get to a point where he's able to physically punish NBA wings fairly early on in his NBA career, especially when you factor in his level of twitchiness and vertical explosive ability.

Yeah, I don't mean to rule out Kuminga as a good prospect. It was just my first impression after watching 3 minutes of youtube highlights.

But generally speaking, I like wings who can get past people with a face up game more so than wings have to resort to putting their back to the basket. With modern 4-out and 5-out NBA sets, guys who can get to the rim and draw help defenders are at a premium.

[DCsOwn]

Which prospects elected to skip college, play in the G-league, and turned out to be good NBA players in recent years? (Genuinely asking)

That's a little bit unfair though because this particular route is an entirely new tract carved out by the league recently. This is a squad created for the expressed purpose of developing high schoolers that don't want to go the college route. The emphasis with this group (sanctioned and supported by the NBA) is to focus on skill development and NBA preparedness with an eye toward cultivating these kids, it's not the same type of get in where you fit in type of dynamic that existed previously. Remember, this is the League's initial response to the let them go to the league controversy that's enveloped the league recently (and the first step Silver's making before lifting the high school restriction entirely).

[nate33]

Which prospects elected to skip college, play in the G-league, and turned out to be good NBA players in recent years? (Genuinely asking)

Isn't this the first year the G-League permitted guys straight out of high school to join?

[NatP4]

Which prospects elected to skip college, play in the G-league, and turned out to be good NBA players in recent years? (Genuinely asking)

Isn't this the first year the G-League permitted guys straight out of high school to join?

I recall other players skipping college to go straight to the g league, but I guess this is the first year of this developmental program that is definitely not just a glorified AAU team that pays players up to 1 million dollars instead of 125k.

It says they only play 10-12 exhibition games in a year? How much are we even going to find out about these guys before draft night?

[Ruzious]

Which prospects elected to skip college, play in the G-league, and turned out to be good NBA players in recent years? (Genuinely asking)

Isn't this the first year the G-League permitted guys straight out of high school to join?

I think so. That's why guys like Wiseman and Mitchell Robinson didn't play in the G League. Maybe Ball, as well.

[Ruzious]

Scottie Barnes was mentioned - which made me think of Scottie Lewis - who I think is an underrated 3 and D wing. He's a great athlete, and it shows in his defensive stats - where he gets 1.5 steals a game and... 1.6 blocks a game. He's also making 43% of his 3's where he's probably under-utilized. He's been missing games because of Covid. At 6'5 195lbs, he makes athletic plays that most players can't.

[NatP4]

Here is some much more impressive footage of a much better player and one of those blue chip prospects that elected to bypass college for the G-league development program:

Watch on YouTube

Also, here is 6 minutes of ridiculous drives and finishes in traffic at the rim:

Watch on YouTube

[NatP4]

I really like Jaden Springer. Efficient smart combo guard. Plays good defense, can create for others. Smart player, plays within himself. Gets steals, rebounds well. Seems like a good bet to be a good NBA player. Will still be 18 years old on draft night.

Per36 against really good competition:

18.0 points 5.4 rebounds 4.3 assists 2.0 steals 0.5 blocks 3.1 turnovers 61.6% TS.

[NatP4]

I’d be curious to hear Dat’s opinion on Nix vs Cunningham.

[pcbothwel]

I really like Jaden Springer. Efficient smart combo guard. Plays good defense, can create for others. Smart player, plays within himself. Gets steals, rebounds well. Seems like a good bet to be a good NBA player. Will still be 18 years old on draft night.

Per36 against really good competition:

18.0 points 5.4 rebounds 4.3 assists 2.0 steals 0.5 blocks 3.1 turnovers 61.6% TS.

Way to early and Im just not involved enough, but so far:
Like/Underrated: Suggs, Cade, Mobley, Moody, Springer, Bouknight, Kispert, Harper, Butler, Scottie Lewis

Dont Like/Overrated: Kuminga, Green, Nix, Z. Williams, Boston.

[NatP4]

I really like Jaden Springer. Efficient smart combo guard. Plays good defense, can create for others. Smart player, plays within himself. Gets steals, rebounds well. Seems like a good bet to be a good NBA player. Will still be 18 years old on draft night.

Per36 against really good competition:

18.0 points 5.4 rebounds 4.3 assists 2.0 steals 0.5 blocks 3.1 turnovers 61.6% TS.

Way to early and Im just not involved enough, but so far:
Like/Underrated: Suggs, Cade, Mobley, Moody, Springer, Bouknight, Kispert, Harper, Butler, Scottie Lewis

Dont Like/Overrated: Kuminga, Green, Nix, Z. Williams, Boston.

Mostly agree, I request you revisit Nix. I really like him. Elite finishing and driving ability like a SGA, really good basketball IQ, ability to shoot off the dribble, strong frame, great vision and playmaking, really smart player, maturity in interviews. Read reports about him being a good on and off ball defender, looks really good defensively with active hands in videos. Seems like he can play either guard position. I almost prefer guards that play below the rim nowadays, and that would be the big knock on him at this point.

Maybe I’m missing something, but I see an absolute steal that is being valued incorrectly below guys like Kuminga, Green, Williams, and Johnson. Maybe this is because he’s from Alaska and didn’t play AAU or in any of the Nike circuit stuff. I’m curious as to what you don’t like about him?

[nate33]

I really like Jaden Springer. Efficient smart combo guard. Plays good defense, can create for others. Smart player, plays within himself. Gets steals, rebounds well. Seems like a good bet to be a good NBA player. Will still be 18 years old on draft night.

Per36 against really good competition:

18.0 points 5.4 rebounds 4.3 assists 2.0 steals 0.5 blocks 3.1 turnovers 61.6% TS.

Way to early and Im just not involved enough, but so far:
Like/Underrated: Suggs, Cade, Mobley, Moody, Springer, Bouknight, Kispert, Harper, Butler, Scottie Lewis

Dont Like/Overrated: Kuminga, Green, Nix, Z. Williams, Boston.

Mostly agree, I request you revisit Nix. I really like him. Elite finishing and driving ability like a SGA, really good basketball IQ, ability to shoot off the dribble, strong frame, great vision and playmaking, really smart player, maturity in interviews. Read reports about him being a good on and off ball defender, looks really good defensively with active hands in videos. Seems like he can play either guard position. I almost prefer guards that play below the rim nowadays, and that would be the big knock on him at this point.

Maybe I’m missing something, but I see an absolute steal that is being valued incorrectly below guys like Kuminga, Green, Williams, and Johnson. I’m curious as to what you don’t like about him?

I agree that Nix has the high basketball IQ, unselfishness and overall feel for the game that should make him a successful pro. My concern is that he doesn't seem to have much explosion or athleticism. He might pan out to be a quality "manager of the game" type of PG in the Malcolm Brogdan/Jalen Brunson mold, but he doesn't appear to have the ability to break down a defense and get them into rotation like a Damion Lillard, or Ja Morant.

Billups/Lowry would be the absolute best case scenario, but guys with that type of smarts and competitiveness are really rare. It's risky to make that assumption for every smart PG with ordinary athleticism. It's like assuming every 6-8 defensive-minded PF can be Draymond Green.

He might be a steal if he drops into the teens, though.