Ranking the 2020/21 Eastern Conference

[closg00]

9th is about right for us, anyone see any team below us leap-frogging us? Merge if redundant.

1- Milwaukee
2 - Miami
3 - Boston
4 - Brooklyn
5 - Toronto
6 - Philly
7- Indiana
8 - Orlando

9
Last Week: 22 ↑

Washington Wizards
2019-20 record: 25-47

Pace: 103.4 (5) OffRtg: 110.2 (16) DefRtg: 114.7 (29) NetRtg: -4.5 (25)

Key additions: Healthy John Wall, Deni Avdija (9th overall pick), Robin Lopez
Key departure: N/A

3 numbers to know:

• The Wizards were the only team that ranked in the bottom five in both opponent field goal percentage in the paint (59.4%, 29th) and opponent effective field goal percentage on shots from outside the paint (52.4%, 26th).

• The Wizards scored 118.7 points per 100 possessions with Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans on the floor together. That was the highest on-court OffRtg mark among 345 two-man combinations that played at least 750 minutes.

• Opponents shot just 46.1% at the rim when Lopez was there to protect it. That was the best rim protection mark among 82 players who defended at least 200 shots at the rim.

Key question: Can John Wall and Bradley Beal revive the Wizards?

The Wizards have the ingredients -- Wall, Beal, Troy Brown Jr., Bertans and Lopez -- for a solid lineup that can score and defend (Lopez is a huge upgrade over Thomas Bryant in regard to the latter). But it's tough to foresee the team-wide commitment to defense they'll need to climb into the top seven in the East, given that we've already heard trade chatter about Wall, who hasn't played in 22 months. GM Tommy Sheppard tried to abate that chatter on Monday, but the "blow it up" cloud will hang over this team unless the return of its point guard results in significant improvement.

https://www.nba.com/news/offseason-power-rankings-eastern-conference

[LyricalRico]

To me, those 7-9 spots are all interchangeable so I'd technically say the Wizards are tied for 7th with IND/ORL just cuz it sounds better lol.

[Shoe]

• Opponents shot just 46.1% at the rim when Lopez was there to protect it. That was the best rim protection mark among 82 players who defended at least 200 shots at the rim.

Solid pick up.

The Hawks will be ranked as the 8th seed in most pre season predictions probably.

[nate33]

I think the Orlando Magic got a bit worse because Jonathan Isaac is out for the season and they didn't really add any important players in free agency.

The Atlanta Hawks, on the other hand, definitely got better and will probably leapfrog us.

Brooklyn will be way better. Boston and Toronto will be a little bit worse, but still better than us. The Sixers will be a bit better. Milwaukee, Indiana and Miami should be about the same.

Ultimately, I think the 8th seed will be between us, Atlanta and Orlando, with Atlanta probably getting it. It will take a major injury for one of the top 7 teams to fall below us.

[mhd]

I think the Orlando Magic got a bit worse because Jonathan Isaac is out for the season and they didn't really add any important players in free agency.

The Atlanta Hawks, on the other hand, definitely got better and will probably leapfrog us.

Brooklyn will be way better. Boston and Toronto will be a little bit worse, but still better than us. The Sixers will be a bit better. Milwaukee, Indiana and Miami should be about the same.

Ultimately, I think the 8th seed will be between us, Atlanta and Orlando, with Atlanta probably getting it. It will take a major injury for one of the top 7 teams to fall below us.

Indy might slip IMO. New coach, rumors that Turner was on the block. Oladipo in a contract year.

[closg00]

• Opponents shot just 46.1% at the rim when Lopez was there to protect it. That was the best rim protection mark among 82 players who defended at least 200 shots at the rim.

Solid pick up.

The Hawks will be ranked as the 8th seed in most pre season predictions probably.

Looking forward to following the Hawks this year and seeing how they balance the vets with the young talent they have.

[Dat2U]

This season feels very "battle for the 9th seed ish". Well enough to ensure we don't have dreams of lottery balls bouncing our way but bad enough to know making the playoffs means being a first round sacrificial lamb.

[payitforward]

I don't see how the Cavs, Pistons, Bulls or Knicks can be any good this year.

Then there's Atlanta -- they are a real wild card! They added Gallinari, Bogdanovic & Rondo. Plus they'll have Clint Capela, assuming he's past his heel injury, & they drafted Onyeka Okongwu (& a potential bargain R2 guy: Skylar Mays -- not to mention my guy Nathan Knight!). They could be very good this year.

& Charlotte's kind of interesting too; they certainly had an impressive draft, coming away with LaMelo Ball, Vernon Carey, Nick Richards & Grant Riller.

They might improve a lot -- if LaMelo Ball is all that right away & Gordon Hayward plays up to his best years, that is. Not to mention that they have a whole bunch of young players who look like they could improve a fair amount.

[LyricalRico]

Forgot about Atlanta, but we'll have to see if guys like Gallo and Rondo can stay healthy. My guess is they could land anywhere between 7-10, so that's someone else Washington will need to pass to make the playoffs.

[payitforward]

There's no real way to rank us, because we have one enormous, unpredictable variable -- John Wall. Leave him out of the equation, & we're unlikely to be significantly better than last year.

You'd be reduced to pointing out that IT is gone, so that helps. Or, looking up from your crystal ball & pronouncing earnestly that "Rui's gonna take a giant leap." Well... sure, maybe he will. But, Lopez instead of Mahinmi doesn't improve us, Neto instead of Shabazz doesn't improve us. Anthony Gill...? Deni's a 19-year old rookie. Bonga & Brown ought to improve; then again, Ish is a year older.

So, really, this year is all about John Wall. If he is rejuvenated, revitalized, the John Wall of old, why... we could win as many as half our games! If all those other good things mentioned above also happen, that is.

[Ruzious]

The East is a lot closer to the West than it has been for most of the last couple of decades. Washington's a better team than they've been, but because of the depth of talent in the East, they might not make the playoffs. I have Atlanta at 6th and Washington at 8th. Indiana and Orlando don't make the playoffs. Brooklyn under-achieves getting the 7th seed.

[doclinkin]

Altanta probably passed us with the addition of Dunn and Capela alone. Those plugged their two biggest holes: perimeter and interior D. Our answer? We added RoLo. And I guess Neto? Okay and a bionic rebuilt John Wall, we hope.

Watch on YouTube

[nate33]

I don't see how the Cavs, Pistons, Bulls or Knicks can be any good this year.

Then there's Atlanta -- they are a real wild card! They added Gallinari, Bogdanovic & Rondo. Plus they'll have Clint Capela, assuming he's past his heel injury, & they drafted Onyeka Okongwu (& a potential bargain R2 guy: Skylar Mays -- not to mention my guy Nathan Knight!). They could be very good this year.

& Charlotte's kind of interesting too; they certainly had an impressive draft, coming away with LaMelo Ball, Vernon Carey, Nick Richards & Grant Riller.

They might improve a lot -- if LaMelo Ball is all that right away & Gordon Hayward plays up to his best years, that is. Not to mention that they have a whole bunch of young players who look like they could improve a fair amount.

Charlotte has talent, but I think LaMelo is going to cost them wins during his rookie year. He'll make a lot of great plays, but also a lot of bad ones, and ultimately, his efficiency will be bad. And they will willingly sacrifice wins in order to develop him.

[payitforward]

True enough.

Still, I thought Charlotte had a good off-season, & that happens rarely enough that it seemed worth a mention!

[nate33]

There's no real way to rank us, because we have one enormous, unpredictable variable -- John Wall. Leave him out of the equation, & we're unlikely to be significantly better than last year.

You'd be reduced to pointing out that IT is gone, so that helps. Or, looking up from your crystal ball & pronouncing earnestly that "Rui's gonna take a giant leap." Well... sure, maybe he will. But, Lopez instead of Mahinmi doesn't improve us, Neto instead of Shabazz doesn't improve us. Anthony Gill...? Deni's a 19-year old rookie. Bonga & Brown ought to improve; then again, Ish is a year older.

So, really, this year is all about John Wall. If he is rejuvenated, revitalized, the John Wall of old, why... we could win as many as half our games! If all those other good things mentioned above also happen, that is.

John Wall over IT is worth between 2 and 10 wins. As you say, he's an enormous, unpredictable variable. I think incremental improvement out of Brown, Bryant, Bonga and Hachimura will be worth 2-3 wins. So that's 4-13 more wins. The team was on a 31-win pace before the bubble. So that's a 35-44 win pace. When Dat2U referred to the Wizards being .500-ish, I think he had that range in mind. Chances are, it'll probably be at the lower end of the range, so maybe a 38 win pace. Would one call that .500-ish?

[payitforward]

It's a .463-ish pace, nate. At least 12 other digits would be required to ditch the ish.

[nate33]

Altanta probably passed us with the addition of Dunn and Capela alone. Those plugged their two biggest holes: perimeter and interior D. Our answer? We added RoLo. And I guess Neto? Okay and a bionic rebuilt John Wall, we hope.

Watch on YouTube

Atlanta added a ton of pretty-good players, but nobody great. They are now 11-deep in legitimate rotation-caliber players, but the top of their rotation is only slightly better. For example, does Chris Dunn even play? He'll have to take minutes from Rondo (who will pout) or Huerter (whom they're trying to develop).

I think Atlanta will be massively improved over the regular season, but they might be susceptible to a disappointing playoff run when teams shorten their rotations. The league is having a play-in tournament this year so the 7th seed plays the 10th and the 8th plays the 9th (with the higher seed only needing to win one game). If we face Atlanta in a play-in game, I like our chances.

Atlanta's roster is deep as hell though:

PG Young/Rondo/Dunn
SG Boganovic/Huerter/Snell
SF Hunter/Reddish/
PF Collins/Gallo/Solomon Hill
C Capela/Okongwu/Fernando

The 4 starters other than Young could be hurt and they wouldn't miss a beat.

[doclinkin]

Rondo barely plays even when he is on the court, unless the stakes are high. He turns it up in the playoffs. If a team's perimeter player is torching the Hawks, or punking Trae, any smart coach will send Dunn out as a stopper. The team with either Bogdan/Huerter and Gallinari has enough offense that they can afford to play defensive specialists in Dunn and Capela. They can still spread the floor enough for Trae to penetrate or Capela to dunk.

I expect Rondo, if he were invested in the game, would work best as a captain of the 2nd team, where Trae slides to SG for a few minutes a game when they do share the ball. Only Trae has no real back up for his role on court. Everywhere else does, or has an alternate who has a useful skill set to replace the guy in front of them (at PF in particular in the Collins/Gallo swap). This year is going to be a death march in trying to pack in all the games, especially with inevitable postponed games due to COVID. The teams that are deep enough to play a platoon system with substitutions and reserves cycling in, or resting back to back games, will stay fresh for the sprint to the playoffs.

[payitforward]

Atlanta's roster is deep as hell though:

PG Young/Rondo/Dunn
SG Boganovic/Huerter/Snell
SF Hunter/Reddish/
PF Collins/Gallo/Solomon Hill
C Capela/Okongwu/Fernando

The 4 starters other than Young could be hurt and they wouldn't miss a beat.

Off their rookie seasons, both the guys you list at SF could get hurt, & they'd probably improve whoever they put in that spot!

[queridiculo]

The East is a lot closer to the West than it has been for most of the last couple of decades. Washington's a better team than they've been, but because of the depth of talent in the East, they might not make the playoffs. I have Atlanta at 6th and Washington at 8th. Indiana and Orlando don't make the playoffs. Brooklyn under-achieves getting the 7th seed.

Uff.

I am not sure I agree.

To me the East looks very mediocre at the moment.

I'd put the Bucks in a tier by itself, the Sixers and Raptors in the tier after that and a glut of teams duking it out in tier 3.

The Heat, classic overachievers. Butler is 31 on bum knees and at 20k career minutes played. He's due to miss some games with this compressed schedule, and Miami lacks the quality in their roster to make up for it.

The Celtics are heading into the season having lost their second best player in Hayward to free agency and Kemba Walker missing anywhere from a month or two out of the gate. Struggling to find scoring in a defense optional league is not a good look, and I don't see where it's consistently going to come from in Boston.

The Nets are a wildcard, not exactly sure what to expect. Kyrie has never been able to stay on the court for any length of time and Durant is probably going to be held out of quite a few contests. Relying on those two to compete in regular season play doesn't seem like a good bet.

Chemistry seems like a serious issue for Indiana, and for all the talent the Hawks added, chemistry could be a major issue for them as well. There are lot mouths needing to be fed in Atlanta.

Not really seeing how Orlando is getting any love, that's a terrible roster that isn't going anywhere.

Bamba is still struggling after contracting Covid back in June and Isaac won't play the season. Struggling to see the positives for that group.