ImageImageImageImageImage

Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder

Moderators: montestewart, LyricalRico, nate33

User avatar
Dark Faze
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,795
And1: 1,668
Joined: Dec 27, 2008

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#581 » by Dark Faze » Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:09 pm

I wouldn't say we "won" the trade--having our future first clogged up for the next 5 years or so is extremely frustrating, but it's becoming clear that this version of Westbrook (assumed healthy) is the better player.
User avatar
TGW
RealGM
Posts: 10,453
And1: 4,005
Joined: Oct 22, 2010

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#582 » by TGW » Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:17 pm

Dark Faze wrote:I wouldn't say we "won" the trade--having our future first clogged up for the next 5 years or so is extremely frustrating, but it's becoming clear that this version of Westbrook (assumed healthy) is the better player.


Anyone who thinks Westbrook is better than Wall at this point is delusional. Even with Westbrook's nice stat padding game last night, his advanced numbers are still inferior to wall's.

And that pick is going to convey. Knowing the Wizards track record the past few years of picking 9, 9, 15, and 19 in the past four seasons, if this trend were to continue, the pick is going to be conveyed unless the team completely tanks from 2023-2026.

Image
Some random troll wrote:Not to sound negative, but this team is owned by an arrogant cheapskate, managed by a moron and coached by an idiot. Recipe for disaster.
User avatar
Dark Faze
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,795
And1: 1,668
Joined: Dec 27, 2008

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#583 » by Dark Faze » Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:39 pm

I'm talking future projection. Westbrook played through injury much of the year and probably shouldn't have been on the court. His recent play has looked much more in line with the kind of numbers he was delivering last year, and if he continues along that trend line then I expect we have the better player at this point.

Agreed on the pick conveying.

One thing that's disappointed me about John's play is his rebounding and assist numbers. I'm not sure why they are so down. This is the highest usage of his career, yet the lowest assist % of his career by a mile. And the terrible rebounding is strange considering he's played quite a few games without Christian Wood or anyone who can really rebound the ball, so in theory a "rebounding by committee" mindset should be helping his numbers there.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 59,696
And1: 12,382
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#584 » by nate33 » Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:54 pm

TGW wrote:
Dark Faze wrote:I wouldn't say we "won" the trade--having our future first clogged up for the next 5 years or so is extremely frustrating, but it's becoming clear that this version of Westbrook (assumed healthy) is the better player.


Anyone who thinks Westbrook is better than Wall at this point is delusional. Even with Westbrook's nice stat padding game last night, his advanced numbers are still inferior to wall's.

And that pick is going to convey. Knowing the Wizards track record the past few years of picking 9, 9, 15, and 19 in the past four seasons, if this trend were to continue, the pick is going to be conveyed unless the team completely tanks from 2023-2026.

Image

Wall isn't THAT much more efficient than Westbrook, which is disturbing. Then factor Westbrook's massive advantage on rebounds and assists, and it's actually closer than I expected. Heck, if Westbrook would just hit his free throws, they'd have a very similar TS%.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 16,086
And1: 5,135
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#585 » by payitforward » Sun Mar 14, 2021 7:45 pm

Here's the best way to compare two players:

1. figure out which one you want to be better
2. find the things that guy is better at
3. declare those to be the most important things
4. make it clear that what the other guy does well is "stat-padding."

Job done.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 16,086
And1: 5,135
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#586 » by payitforward » Sun Mar 14, 2021 8:11 pm

I disliked this trade. I continue to dislike the fact that we were willing to give a R1 pick (protected or not) to make it happen.

But, at this point, there is no comparison whatever between the seasons these two guys are having. Westbrook is outplaying Wall by a mile.

Wall is certainly scoring a lot more efficiently. For sure. But, look at the rest of the numbers, please.

An offensive board, a steal, & a turnover each have about the same value (negative in the case of a turnover, obviously). Combine those stats for the 2 players & Russ is ahead per 40 minutes.

A block, an assist, & a foul also have about the same value (negative in the case of a foul, obviously). Russ has a significant advantage.

Those numbers more than suffice to make up for Russ's less efficient scoring.

Then there's defensive rebounds -- Russ gets 2.6 defensive boards for every 1 that Wall gets.

Russ is having a better year by far than John.

Now... would I give a R1 pick in 2023 for the difference? Absolutely not! We are rebuilding (like it or not). That 2023 pick will be in the first draft after Wall/Westbrook's enormous salaries are off the books. It was too valuable to give up.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
User avatar
TGW
RealGM
Posts: 10,453
And1: 4,005
Joined: Oct 22, 2010

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#587 » by TGW » Sun Mar 14, 2021 8:12 pm

payitforward wrote:Here's the best way to compare two players:

1. figure out which one you want to be better
2. find the things that guy is better at
3. declare those to be the most important things
4. make it clear that what the other guy does well is "stat-padding."

Job done.


At this point in their careers, they're about the same impact wise on the court. I actually wouldn't care at all about the trade but that pick bothers me. Why give up a pick for a 32 year old player on the decline who's paid 40mil for the next 3 seasons. I've noticed that people are trying to downplay that pick, but a good GM does not give up any sort of draft capital in an exchange of two 30 year old players on their downside. Complete stupidity by a weak front office.
Some random troll wrote:Not to sound negative, but this team is owned by an arrogant cheapskate, managed by a moron and coached by an idiot. Recipe for disaster.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 16,086
And1: 5,135
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#588 » by payitforward » Sun Mar 14, 2021 8:14 pm

TGW wrote:
payitforward wrote:Here's the best way to compare two players:

1. figure out which one you want to be better
2. find the things that guy is better at
3. declare those to be the most important things
4. make it clear that what the other guy does well is "stat-padding."

Job done.


At this point in their careers, they're about the same impact wise on the court. I actually wouldn't care at all about the trade but that pick bothers me. Why give up a pick for a 32 year old player on the decline who's paid 40mil for the next 3 seasons. I've noticed that people are trying to downplay that pick, but a good GM does not give up any sort of draft capital in an exchange of two 30 year old players on their downside. Complete stupidity by a weak front office.

Well... read my last post: I obviously agree about the pick. I wouldn't have made the trade.

But, Russ is outplaying John all the same! :)

I continue to think the trade was the work of Ted Leonsis. Then again... how would I know? :)
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
verbal8
General Manager
Posts: 8,091
And1: 1,208
Joined: Jul 20, 2006
Location: Herndon, VA
     

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#589 » by verbal8 » Sun Mar 14, 2021 8:40 pm

TGW wrote:
payitforward wrote:Here's the best way to compare two players:

1. figure out which one you want to be better
2. find the things that guy is better at
3. declare those to be the most important things
4. make it clear that what the other guy does well is "stat-padding."

Job done.


At this point in their careers, they're about the same impact wise on the court. I actually wouldn't care at all about the trade but that pick bothers me. Why give up a pick for a 32 year old player on the decline who's paid 40mil for the next 3 seasons. I've noticed that people are trying to downplay that pick, but a good GM does not give up any sort of draft capital in an exchange of two 30 year old players on their downside. Complete stupidity by a weak front office.


I think the pick reflects a combination of Wall's injury history and Westbrook's intangibles. Not sure it is a good reason, but I think that was likely the thought pattern behind it.
NatP4
RealGM
Posts: 10,832
And1: 3,543
Joined: Jul 24, 2016
         

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#590 » by NatP4 » Mon Mar 15, 2021 7:23 pm

We jumped the gun on evaluating this trade. Wall has been awful this year and is now due for another major knee surgery. His career could be in jeopardy.

Westbrook has been pretty good for a couple months now. It’s possible that his contract is becoming moveable which will certainly not be the case for that Wall contract at any point.
Mizerooskie
Junior
Posts: 337
And1: 31
Joined: May 19, 2010

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#591 » by Mizerooskie » Mon Mar 15, 2021 7:32 pm

NatP4 wrote:We jumped the gun on evaluating this trade. Wall has been awful this year and is now due for another major knee surgery. His career could be in jeopardy.

Westbrook has been pretty good for a couple months now. It’s possible that his contract is becoming moveable which will certainly not be the case for that Wall contract at any point.

Yep. My progression on the trade was something like:

Initial reaction: Yes! We got rid of the worst contract in the league by far! And got a significantly better (and healthier) player. The 1st is too far out to worry about, and we rarely make an impact with those anyway.

During the Russ-is-banged-up/recovering-from-injury portion of the season: ****. Now we've got the worse, and older player, and somehow his contract is looking worse than Wall's

Recently, particular with the knee scope news: Phew. Russ has looked like the significantly better player for a bit now, and may even be moveable for value. Wall's contract looks horrendous again.
User avatar
gambitx777
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,776
And1: 686
Joined: Dec 18, 2012

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#592 » by gambitx777 » Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:22 pm

Yeah russ was playing himself back into shape and wall just looks fresh.

The whole trade was always going to come down to could they get a full season of health wall. They did not. Because you could see something was going wrong the last few weeks. Because now wall is basically untradable for at least a year if not two.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app
User avatar
FAH1223
RealGM
Posts: 11,837
And1: 4,456
Joined: Nov 01, 2005
Location: Laurel, MD
       

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#593 » by FAH1223 » Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:29 pm

Mizerooskie wrote:
NatP4 wrote:We jumped the gun on evaluating this trade. Wall has been awful this year and is now due for another major knee surgery. His career could be in jeopardy.

Westbrook has been pretty good for a couple months now. It’s possible that his contract is becoming moveable which will certainly not be the case for that Wall contract at any point.

Yep. My progression on the trade was something like:

Initial reaction: Yes! We got rid of the worst contract in the league by far! And got a significantly better (and healthier) player. The 1st is too far out to worry about, and we rarely make an impact with those anyway.

During the Russ-is-banged-up/recovering-from-injury portion of the season: ****. Now we've got the worse, and older player, and somehow his contract is looking worse than Wall's

Recently, particular with the knee scope news: Phew. Russ has looked like the significantly better player for a bit now, and may even be moveable for value. Wall's contract looks horrendous again.


Wall started the season off pretty good but his play has been meh as of late. Westbrook being more durable probably will play out better, I guess.
Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter
Image
pcbothwel
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,905
And1: 1,963
Joined: Jun 12, 2010
     

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#594 » by pcbothwel » Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:36 pm

I wont pile on Wall as he is injured, but its getting more and more clear that we won this trade.
Russ previous 3 years (2 OKC + 1 Hou):
25 / 10 / 9.5 with 1.8 steals, 2:1 AST:TOV ratio, TS: 52%, FTr: 31%

Russ last 12 games:
25 / 9 / 11 with 1.8 steals, 2.5:1 AST:TOV ratio, TS: 53%, FTr: 37%

I know 12 games isnt a large sample size, but Russ is as good or better now than he has been over the last 3 years. In fact, If he was hitting his FT at even 75% then he would be as good as his post MVP year(2017-18)... A year in which he was ALL-NBA 2nd team.
WallToWall
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,852
And1: 498
Joined: May 20, 2010
         

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#595 » by WallToWall » Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:44 pm

Right now, because of Wall's injury, it is easy to say we got the better end of the deal. Hypothetical: if Westbrook gets injured, then we will not have the better end of the deal, as it would be us shipping out a 1st round pick for nothing. Let's hope injuries don't happen.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 59,696
And1: 12,382
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#596 » by nate33 » Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:09 pm

WallToWall wrote:Right now, because of Wall's injury, it is easy to say we got the better end of the deal. Hypothetical: if Westbrook gets injured, then we will not have the better end of the deal, as it would be us shipping out a 1st round pick for nothing. Let's hope injuries don't happen.

Yes, but the point is, a Wall injury was foreseeable because he hasn't been healthy in 4 years.

Wall is currently injured and Westbrook isn't because, more often than not, Wall is usually injured and Westbrook usually isn't.
pcbothwel
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,905
And1: 1,963
Joined: Jun 12, 2010
     

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#597 » by pcbothwel » Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:19 pm

nate33 wrote:
WallToWall wrote:Right now, because of Wall's injury, it is easy to say we got the better end of the deal. Hypothetical: if Westbrook gets injured, then we will not have the better end of the deal, as it would be us shipping out a 1st round pick for nothing. Let's hope injuries don't happen.

Yes, but the point is, a Wall injury was foreseeable because he hasn't been healthy in 4 years.

Wall is currently injured and Westbrook isn't because, more often than not, Wall is usually injured and Westbrook usually isn't.


Exactly. And again, my argument isnt that we won BECAUSE Wall is injured. Russ is better than Wall healthy. The injury just adds to it now.
Also, I dont think the beginning of the season was a fair comp. Russ had a recent quad injury and was playing in hard fought playoff games against the NBA champs 90 days before this season started. Wall had been a healthy scratch for 12 months before the season, so he was healthy and itching to get back. Even if Wall didnt get hurt, I wasnt confident that he would keep up the energy levels as the season went, especially on defense.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 16,086
And1: 5,135
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#598 » by payitforward » Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:47 pm

Really sorry to hear that Wall is injured... :(
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
User avatar
gambitx777
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,776
And1: 686
Joined: Dec 18, 2012

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#599 » by gambitx777 » Wed Mar 17, 2021 7:45 pm

That's really at the end of the day why they traded him in the first place. They had no faith he wouldn't break down. Rehabing an injury when you have other issues on that part of the body is hard. Hes had bad knees then blew an achilles, so that other knee ate a lot of strain over the course of his recovery. It was a good but hard choice to move him when we did. You can argue if that first should have been a first should have been a second.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 59,696
And1: 12,382
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder 

Post#600 » by nate33 » Sun Mar 21, 2021 11:48 pm

Thread on the General Board full of Houston fans complaining about John Wall's selfishness and bad leadership.

KGtabake wrote:
ThunderBolt wrote:
Read on Twitter

This reminds me of this tweet when wall missed a game back when they were teammates.
Read on Twitter


KhalilS wrote:Man, the Wizards have won that trade, and they got Westbrook 150 millions deal, Wall may be the better player, but no way Westbrook will allow this toxic atmosphere on his team.

Return to Washington Wizards