Wizards Analytics: A Safe Space for Nerds

[nate33]

To be fair, for that narrative to hold, one must assume that all the bad 1st half coaching is Brooks' fault, and all the good 2nd half adjustments are due solely to Oliver. We don't know if that's actually true.

To explore your thoughts about what happens when we see teams a 2nd time, I note that in the recent 16-game stretch, we have played Denver twice, Boston twice and the Clippers twice.

In the 1st Denver game, we fell behind by 20 in the 1st quarter, but came back to win.
In the 2nd Denver game, it was pretty close throughout, except we built a short-lived 12-point lead in the 2nd quarter that quickly evaporated.

I'd say the Denver series supports the theory. We figured Denver out at half time in the first game and never fell behind them the second time we played.

In the 1st Boston game, we just steadily build upon our lead throughout. We were up 12 at halftime and it ballooned to 26 in the 3rd quarter before narrowing a bit in the last 5 minutes of the game during garbage time.
In the 2nd Boston game, the Celtics built an 11 point lead in the 2nd and early 3rd quarters but we closed the gap in the 3rd and built a small lead in the 4th before giving the game away in the final 40 seconds.

The Boston game doesn't really support the theory. We blew them out easily in the first game, perhaps due to the funk Boston was in at the time. The second game exhibited a typical pattern of a 2nd half comeback.

In the 1st Clippers game, we were blown out early, with them doubling our score early in the 2nd quarter. We mounted a 3rd quarter comeback, whittling a 22 point lead down to 5, but ran out of gas and collapsed in the 4th.
The 2nd Clippers game was close throughout except for a brief Clippers surge late in the 2nd when they built a 12 point lead. We quickly knocked that down to even in the first few minutes of the 3rd and we played them even after that until going on a 10-0 run in the final 3 minutes.

If you squint, you can say that the Clippers pattern upholds the theory. We sort of figured the Clippers out in the 3rd quarter of the 1st game but they were just too strong and had too good of a lead for us to ultimately catch them. But the next time we played them, we were ready.

[nate33]

I did some number crunching with the player combinations data.

When Beal and Westbrook are on the floor together, the team has a +/- of -5.3

When Westbrook is on the floor without Beal, the team has a +/- of -8.9

When Beal is on the floor without Westbrook, the team has a +/- of +4.4

It's worth noting that the Westbrook by himself and Beal by himself minutes are typically against backups, and when they're together, they're matched up against starters.

[montestewart]

I did some number crunching with the player combinations data.

When Beal and Westbrook are on the floor together, the team has a +/- of -5.3

When Westbrook is on the floor without Beal, the team has a +/- of -8.9

When Beal is on the floor without Westbrook, the team has a +/- of +4.4

So sit Beal and feature Westbrook leading a three-pronged attack of Westbrook points, Westbrook rebounds, and Westbrook assists. Oh, and more Westbrook turnovers too.

Who cares that Covid doesn't allow for fans at the arena? Westbrook has four spectators on the court with him on every play. More quadruple-doubles, and more ping pong balls. The rankest of tanks. Still, Houston lost 20 in a row, so I think the Rockets won that trade.

[nate33]

Saw this on the Twitter:

Read on Twitter

Westbrook

And you gotta love that Scott Brooks offense that features two players among the top 8 in the league in ISO scoring attempts.

[NatP4]

Saw this on the Twitter:

Read on Twitter

Westbrook

And you gotta love that Scott Brooks offense that features two players among the top 8 in the league in ISO scoring attempts.

Close your eyes and picture that offense with John Wall in place of Westbrook. Imagine the frustration for Beal....

Also, we should trade for Jalen Brunson

[FAH1223]

Upping

I will again point out that the Wizards had the 7th best defense in the league over the last 50 games of the season (after the Covid fiasco). Meanwhile, our offense was 19th and we ranked dead last in 3P's made.

Nate, I have an idea for the board.

Would you consider a sticky with this kind of info posted?

* The Wizards were the 7th best defense in the league over the last 50 games

* The Wizards ranked 19th in offense

* The Wizards were 30th among 30 teams in 3-pointers made

And there are many others, including individual stats/data points I’d love to see gathered there (like that tidbit about Deni’s defense that I found on LEBRON).

Just a place to go and have these kind of vital nuggets of info for us to be inspired by; muse upon; work into posts, etc.

It would also be a help for media folks who don’t know and are lazy.

In all the pieces about WU June I’ve been reading, this mention of the defense needing help is the most infuriating (no acknowledgment of the fact that they improved markedly, and especially after Gafford arrived … And notice btw the defensive falloff after Deni got hurt.)




*** Another good one to post: The Wizards have a 2022 second-round pick coming from Chicago, Detroit or L.A. Lakers (whichever is most favorable); Detroit looks to be bad again, which means this could be a pick in the low 30s.

I had a thread going with something similar, but it fell to page 5.

Wizards Analytics: A Safe Space for Nerds

We need shooters on the wing basically.

[badinage]

So, what I had in mind was — a single (locked and stickied) post that gets updated as info changes, and that contains all the relevant stats/data that we (and journos) need to understand just what this team is right now.

As you said elsewhere, there’s a lot of misunderstanding about this team, which improved markedly on D and which — at least under ISO-loving, lazy Brooks — struggled at times on O/didn’t attempt many 3s.

And there are players we need to single out — like Deni, who performed well defensively, according to several statistical measures — so that we know what we have when we assess our present and future.

[wall_glizzy]

A single stickied post where random factoids are dumped without context sounds like a nightmare to me, personally. As does the presumptive process of keeping it updated, which would be... people finding something they think is interesting and repeatedly begging Nate to add it to the post?

[badinage]

A nightmare? Really? To have a single post that contains all the (not random) vital info we need??

[nate33]

I came across this article in the General Board. It's a real eye-opener:

https://deadspin.com/the-confessions-of-an-nba-scorekeeper-5345287

Basically, lots of box score stats, particularly assists and blocks, are very subjective and HIGHLY influenced by homer stat-keepers. This disparity between home assists and road assists is pretty massive. Stat nerds who think that NBA play can be distilled down to box score numbers need to keep this in mind.