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All things Daniel Gafford

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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#21 » by nate33 » Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:03 pm

NatP4 wrote:
MDStar wrote:Don't know the answer to your question Nate, but you brought up Len and Lopez, which prompted for me a Brooks question. Why, if Gafford is playing as well as we have seen, is he still playing 3 centers each game? Who in the modern NBA, would do such a foolish thing on purpose? Having three centers, none of which can shoot outside of 5 ft, each playing 16 min per game, makes absolutely no sense. It's not even like we're protecting the paint, as two of the three don't block or alter shots at the rim. :banghead:


Part of it is probably the minute restriction on Gafford.

The real answer is that Brooks is an idiot. If he views all 3 players at a position as worthy of minutes, he will simply rotate all 3 (see Neto, Ish, and Westbrook). He doesn’t feel the need to do this if there is a young player like Mathews or Bonga in the equation, they are just silly young players that deserve nothing in his eyes.

Yeah, a little of both of these.

The way I see it Gafford is our best defender, and Lopez is our best offensive center. Those are the two guys that should play. There is no reason to play Len over Gafford once Gafford's minutes restriction is lifted. Gafford is a better roll threat and an equivalent or better defender than Len.
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#22 » by Kanyewest » Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:25 pm

Len actually has a higher win share per 48 than Lopez for the season (1.37 ws/48 to 1.19) and slightly better (although probably trivial) BPM- that being said Robin Lopez has been playing better lately - it looks like he's in better shape now. Len is shooting 61% from the field with the Wizards while Lopez is shooting 62.5% FG%.
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#23 » by dckingsfan » Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:45 pm

I think it interesting that they all played against Utah. When that happens you don't have to worry about foul trouble or fatigue for any of the three...
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#24 » by nate33 » Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:41 pm

Kanyewest wrote:Len actually has a higher win share per 48 than Lopez for the season (1.37 ws/48 to 1.19) and slightly better (although probably trivial) BPM- that being said Robin Lopez has been playing better lately - it looks like he's in better shape now. Len is shooting 61% from the field with the Wizards while Lopez is shooting 62.5% FG%.

Lopez is a weird guy to evaluate with the box score because he defends positionally without blocking shots, and he boxes out without pulling down the rebound. So some summary metrics like WS/48 and PER don't treat him kindly. The on/off data says that the team is much better defensively with Lopez on the floor.

Offensively, Lopez is better than Len as a post threat, but Len is better as a roll threat. But if we need a roll threat, Gafford is even better than Len. So basically, I'm struggling to find a scenario when we're better off with Len on the floor instead of either Gafford or Lopez.

I'm not trying to bash Len. I think Len is a reasonably competent guy who can eat minutes without killing you. He has been pretty useful and I'm glad we picked him up off of waivers. But he isn't better than the alternatives.
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#25 » by Kanyewest » Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:57 pm

nate33 wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:Len actually has a higher win share per 48 than Lopez for the season (1.37 ws/48 to 1.19) and slightly better (although probably trivial) BPM- that being said Robin Lopez has been playing better lately - it looks like he's in better shape now. Len is shooting 61% from the field with the Wizards while Lopez is shooting 62.5% FG%.

Lopez is a weird guy to evaluate with the box score because he defends positionally without blocking shots, and he boxes out without pulling down the rebound. So some summary metrics like WS/48 and PER don't treat him kindly. The on/off data says that the team is much better defensively with Lopez on the floor.

Offensively, Lopez is better than Len as a post threat, but Len is better as a roll threat. But if we need a roll threat, Gafford is even better than Len. So basically, I'm struggling to find a scenario when we're better off with Len on the floor instead of either Gafford or Lopez.

I'm not trying to bash Len. I think Len is a reasonably competent guy who can eat minutes without killing you. He has been pretty useful and I'm glad we picked him up off of waivers. But he isn't better than the alternatives.


Perhaps Lopez is better although it really isn't shown in the numbers definitively in either direction.

Basketball reference lists Len with better defensive box score plus minus than Lopez (.9 compared to -1.4).
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/WAS/2021.html

Real box score plus minus via ESPN gives Lopez the better rating the edge at 0.47 to -1.01 (maybe this also takes into account Len's #s with the Raptors?) http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/DRPM/position/9
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#26 » by DCZards » Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:16 pm

Good story on Gafford by Chase Hughes. This is an excerpt. Link to full story at end.

Gafford, however, so far looks like the total package for what the Wizards want him to be which is a big man prospect that can improve their long-term outlook, particularly on the defensive end. Right now, he's checking off all the boxes.

In addition to having length and the ability to play above the rim, Gafford also seems to have the instincts to match. He has quick hands around the rim to alter shots from different release angles. And he hustles back on defense with impressive speed baseline to baseline.

He also seems hungry to get better, which is always important for a player at the stage of his career.

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/its-only-four-games-daniel-gafford-looks-ideal-fit-wizards?fbclid=IwAR2EHSXZSShE7mmbSow8AXF7DtbHflr9-BVq8iTX0hR2jBGL6NziIjAvjXA
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#27 » by payitforward » Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:45 pm

Kanyewest wrote:Len actually has a higher win share per 48 than Lopez for the season (1.37 ws/48 to 1.19) and slightly better (although probably trivial) BPM- that being said Robin Lopez has been playing better lately - it looks like he's in better shape now. Len is shooting 61% from the field with the Wizards while Lopez is shooting 62.5% FG%.

Last point a good one -- Len hs been going downhill; Lopez has been going uphill. But, neither of them has been particularly good overall.
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#28 » by NatP4 » Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:49 pm

nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:
tontoz wrote:15/4 in only 18 minutes coming off a sprained ankle. :nod:


For the year per36:

15.7 points
9.9 rebounds
3.2 blocks
1.1 steals
71% TS

.192 WS/48
2.0 BPM
0.4 VORP

And he’s only 22 years old.

He also ranks 24th in DRPM among centers. 22nd if you ignore Bryant and Kornet, who have barely played.

I think we finally have a young rim-protecting center with real potential. He is in that Tyson Chandler, Robert Williams, Bismack Biyombo, Clint Capela, Mitchell Robinson category of rim runner centers who have the raw potential and show flashes when they're young, but you just can't tell for sure if things will click and they'll finally figure out all of the nuances to team defense.

For Chandler and Capella, it clicked. For Biyombo, not so much. The jury is still out on Williams, Robinson and Gafford.


He’s listed as a PF in 2019-2020, but he ranks 19th in DRPM. That would rank him at 27ish for Cs. Encouraging stuff.
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#29 » by Ruzious » Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:49 pm

payitforward wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:Len actually has a higher win share per 48 than Lopez for the season (1.37 ws/48 to 1.19) and slightly better (although probably trivial) BPM- that being said Robin Lopez has been playing better lately - it looks like he's in better shape now. Len is shooting 61% from the field with the Wizards while Lopez is shooting 62.5% FG%.

Last point a good one -- Len hs been going downhill; Lopez has been going uphill. But, neither of them has been particularly good overall.

And I don't think either Len or Lopez fit into the future plans of the Wiz - unless Len is willing to take a veteran minimum contract to stay.
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#30 » by NatP4 » Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:52 pm

It’s going to be fun to watch Giddey/Gafford pick and rolls for the next decade!
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#31 » by payitforward » Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:52 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:Len actually has a higher win share per 48 than Lopez for the season (1.37 ws/48 to 1.19) and slightly better (although probably trivial) BPM- that being said Robin Lopez has been playing better lately - it looks like he's in better shape now. Len is shooting 61% from the field with the Wizards while Lopez is shooting 62.5% FG%.

Last point a good one -- Len hs been going downhill; Lopez has been going uphill. But, neither of them has been particularly good overall.

And I don't think either Len or Lopez fit into the future plans of the Wiz - unless Len is willing to take a veteran minimum contract to stay.

I doubt Len will attract much more than a vet minimum contract.
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#32 » by nate33 » Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:38 pm

payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:Last point a good one -- Len hs been going downhill; Lopez has been going uphill. But, neither of them has been particularly good overall.

And I don't think either Len or Lopez fit into the future plans of the Wiz - unless Len is willing to take a veteran minimum contract to stay.

I doubt Len will attract much more than a vet minimum contract.

Agreed. Maybe we use non-Bird rights and offer him the vet-minimum plus 20%, which would beat out all other vet-minimum offers.

I'd be happy to bring him back as our 3rd center at that price. He may not be a game changer, but he is competent. If one of Bryant or Gafford goes down, I'd feel good about having Len fill in.

If we draft a center, then there probably isn't room for him though.
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#33 » by payitforward » Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:13 pm

Len started out extremely well for us. He's slid a lot in the last couple of weeks.

Still, just as you say, he's a competent veteran who will be cheap. No problem for him to come back.
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#34 » by Ruzious » Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:50 pm

payitforward wrote:Len started out extremely well for us. He's slid a lot in the last couple of weeks.

Still, just as you say, he's a competent veteran who will be cheap. No problem for him to come back.

Len didn't start out like Gafford. His first big game was his 8th game with the Wiz.
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#35 » by tontoz » Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:22 pm

I've watched Zion several times this year and it is rare to see someone successfully stop him in a 1 on 1 situation the way Gafford did last night.

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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#36 » by Shoe » Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:25 pm

Great acquisition by Tommy Sheppard. EG would've trade two first for Vucevic
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#37 » by queridiculo » Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:48 pm

Shoe wrote:Great acquisition by Tommy Sheppard. EG would've trade two first for Vucevic


Major credit goes to the Bulls FO and their short sighted trade for Vucevic.

Without that deal in place and the Bulls love affair with Thad Young as a small ball center Gafford probably wouldn't have become available.

Pleasantly surprised by Gafford's touch from the free throw line. He's got nice mechanics, wonder if he's going to be able to develop a jumper.
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#38 » by nate33 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:27 pm

This is very exciting that we might actually have a rock solid two-headed monster at center going forward. Gafford may not be Rudy Gobert, but it looks very possible that he might be the next Clint Capella - a legit defensive big who is good enough as a rim-runner that teams can't cheat off of him on defense.

And if Bryant returns to 100% of his old self and continues to get incrementally better as a defender, he's a great option if we need to get more dynamic on offense. He might help a lot in crunch time too if teams successfully negate Gafford's rim running.

If one puts a little thought into the rotations, you can really field very complementary lineups for the starting unit and the backups. Continue to run the same rotation with Beal and Westbrook (have one on the floor at all times, they're on together for the first and last 6 minutes of each half). Play Gafford when both our star guards are on the floor. Play Bertans with the starters since Gafford can offset his defensive limitations. Hachimura plays the other starting forward, mostly focusing on D, running the floor and finishing.

The engine of the 2nd unit will be whichever of Beal and Westbrook is on the floor running pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop with Bryant. Mathews provides spacing. Avdija does a little of everything. And the 5th guy is either a PG when Beal is on the floor (Neto) or a wing when Westbrook is on (our draft pick).
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#39 » by nate33 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:36 pm

The team is 5-1 when Gafford plays, with the only loss coming on the road against Phoenix on a back-to-back without Beal in the lineup.
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Re: All things Daniel Gafford 

Post#40 » by Dat2U » Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:49 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:And I don't think either Len or Lopez fit into the future plans of the Wiz - unless Len is willing to take a veteran minimum contract to stay.

I doubt Len will attract much more than a vet minimum contract.

Agreed. Maybe we use non-Bird rights and offer him the vet-minimum plus 20%, which would beat out all other vet-minimum offers.

I'd be happy to bring him back as our 3rd center at that price. He may not be a game changer, but he is competent. If one of Bryant or Gafford goes down, I'd feel good about having Len fill in.

If we draft a center, then there probably isn't room for him though.


No. Let's do better and aim higher. I find this as silly as the talk of needing to re-sign a scrub like Mortiz Wagner some weeks back. We already have one slow footed C under contract next season in Bryant. We don't need two.

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