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2021 Cap Projections

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payitforward
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Re: 2021 Cap Projections 

Post#21 » by payitforward » Thu Apr 1, 2021 3:35 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
nate33 wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:What do we give Matthews?

Read on Twitter

I'd sign him to that deal in a heartbeat. Heck, I'd sign him to double that deal in a heartbeat. $13.5M over 4 years with the 4th year a team option. Sold!

Agreed.
I think he gets 3/9M when its all said and done

Makes sense. But a 4th year option would be great...
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Re: 2021 Cap Projections 

Post#22 » by payitforward » Thu Apr 1, 2021 8:50 pm

We've moved off the subject of the cap pretty quickly & instead we're seeing trades proposed in this thread. To return to the subject:

nate33 wrote:After the Gafford trade, we now have some pretty decent visibility on what the core of this team will look like next year.

We have 8 players under contract, assuming we opt in with Gafford and opt out with Gil:

Code: Select all

PG Westbrook  44.2M
SG Beal       34.5M
SF Hutchinson  4.0M
SF Avdija      4.7M
PF Hachimura   4.9M
PF Bertans    16.0M
C  Bryant      8.7M
C  Gafford     1.8M
TOTAL        119.0M

Optimistically, we can sign Mathews with Early Bird Rights for $1.5M. We can match any expected offer, so if someone offers more, we can still retain him. If Neto can be retained for the vet minimum ($1.6M) or the non-Bird exception ($1.7M), I'd keep him too, or another equivalent backup PG for that cost. That gives us 10 guys, 2 at each position, for 120.7M....

You added Neto's $1.7m but not Mathews $1.5m -- should be $122m for 10 guys.

To be safe, let's take it to $2.5m for Mathews. Now, let's add a R1 pick at $5.5m & a R2 pick (somehow...) at $1m, & we are at...

Code: Select all

PG Westbrook  44.2M
PG Neto        1.7M
SG Beal       34.5M
SG Mathews     2.5M
SF Hutchinson  4.0M
SF Avdija      4.7M
PF Hachimura   4.9M
PF Bertans    16.0M
C  Bryant      8.7M
C  Gafford     1.8M
?  R1 pick     5.5M
?  R2 pick     1.0M
TOTAL        129.5M

That's 12 guys. Assume we add 2 veteran minimum guys @$1.6m each, which gets us to 14 guys at $132.7m.

nate33 wrote:...The luxtax threshold is $136.6. So it looks like, at best, we will have $7M to spend on a decent free agent if we want to stay under the tax, less if we land a top 4 pick....

Make that @$4m rather than $7m. But, if we are able to sign Mathews for the optimal bargain salary nate is using, then it's more like $5m for a FA.

A couple of points: I included a R2 pick, even though we don't have one. Obviously, we'd need to find someone who wants to sell one! But, it didn't seem right to think that a team in the situation we are in would add only one rookie.
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Re: 2021 Cap Projections 

Post#23 » by pcbothwel » Thu Apr 1, 2021 8:56 pm

Also... I think we'll end up closer to 140M. If by the deadline we need to get under the tax, we would be able to move Hutchinson, Bryant, or Bertans with not too much effort. That also doesn't include a possible full sell off including Beal.
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Re: 2021 Cap Projections 

Post#24 » by payitforward » Thu Apr 1, 2021 10:32 pm

Not a lot of maneuvering room. It's hard for me to see where this team can be heading in the near term -- unless of course both Rui & Deni become very good very quickly.
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Re: 2021 Cap Projections 

Post#25 » by payitforward » Thu Apr 1, 2021 10:35 pm

pcbothwel wrote:Also... I think we'll end up closer to 140M. If by the deadline we need to get under the tax, we would be able to move Hutchinson, Bryant, or Bertans with not too much effort. That also doesn't include a possible full sell off including Beal.

Hard for me to see why this team would warrant going into the luxury tax.
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Re: 2021 Cap Projections 

Post#26 » by pcbothwel » Thu Apr 1, 2021 11:07 pm

payitforward wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:Also... I think we'll end up closer to 140M. If by the deadline we need to get under the tax, we would be able to move Hutchinson, Bryant, or Bertans with not too much effort. That also doesn't include a possible full sell off including Beal.

Hard for me to see why this team would warrant going into the luxury tax.


Of course you would :wink:
Ted wont tell them to stay above or below the lux tax. He'll provide them with a budget he is willing to spend on payroll depending on how successful the team is.
I pointed to some easy salary to move by the deadline should they disappoint and need to get under.
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Re: 2021 Cap Projections 

Post#27 » by payitforward » Fri Apr 2, 2021 2:16 pm

Hey, I don't care what happens to Ted's $$ -- he wants to pay the lux tax in order to compete to get into the playoffs, it's fine w/ me!

But, if you're in lux tax territory, then the "budget" you provide isn't to spend on "payroll;" it's to spend on payroll plus heavy penalties.

I don't know what makes you so sure it'd be easy to move Hutchison. Or -- especially! -- Bertans. Plus, if you have to move a player who has value but you can't take anything back, then you've paid a high price to get under the tax line. Not to mention that if you're over a barrel, you usually don't get to negotiate the best deal.

Edit: in fairness, I don't know what you have in mind that would get us to $140m. I.e. given what we already know about salary, who are we to acquire that will take us from the 17-30 team we are today (to which a high R1 pick rookie will have been added) to a team that's worth paying luxury tax?

So... how do you see us getting there?
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Re: 2021 Cap Projections 

Post#28 » by FAH1223 » Wed Apr 7, 2021 3:10 pm

I laugh at the 'blow it up' talk when we only have 2 guys on the roster from 2 years ago. And only 1 guy left from our last postseason appearance 3 years ago.
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Re: 2021 Cap Projections 

Post#29 » by payitforward » Wed Apr 7, 2021 4:03 pm

FAH1223 wrote:I laugh at the 'blow it up' talk when we only have 2 guys on the roster from 2 years ago. And only 1 guy left from our last postseason appearance 3 years ago.

I've made this point about 100 times; no one seems to get it.
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Re: 2021 Cap Projections 

Post#30 » by payitforward » Wed Apr 7, 2021 4:49 pm

So... once again... with Gafford's option & Mathews on a new deal & say $5m to our high R1 rookie, we are at $126m+ for 10 players --
Brad, Russ, Davis, Bryant, Rui, Deni, Hutchison, Mathews, Gafford & the rookie.

The lux tax line at $136m, but let's work with pcbothwei's idea that our initial payroll may be "closer to $140m." We have @$14m to work with, & we need 5 players.

We will need a few cheap players, obviously, so suppose for a moment that we pick up both Gill's & Bonga's options, & we've bought a R2 pick & added a player that way. Seems like we might need to sign Winston (unless our R1 pick had been a PG). He'd be @$1m, right? That takes us to $131m w/ 1 open roster spot.

So we have about $9m & the mid-level exception to use: who is the guy?

Anybody have a good idea?

(edit: of course, the numbers could be slightly different -- a really high R1 pick if we're lucky... no Bonga but someone even cheaper instead, etc. -- but, even in this case, the picture doesn't really change much does it?)
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Re: 2021 Cap Projections 

Post#31 » by nate33 » Wed Apr 7, 2021 5:16 pm

payitforward wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:I laugh at the 'blow it up' talk when we only have 2 guys on the roster from 2 years ago. And only 1 guy left from our last postseason appearance 3 years ago.

I've made this point about 100 times; no one seems to get it.

By "blow it up", people mean to give up on the dream of trying to win now and fully commit to a rebuild. It's not just about roster turnover. It's about getting younger and committing to developing that youth, even if that means losing in the short term.
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Re: 2021 Cap Projections 

Post#32 » by doclinkin » Wed Apr 7, 2021 5:44 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:I laugh at the 'blow it up' talk when we only have 2 guys on the roster from 2 years ago. And only 1 guy left from our last postseason appearance 3 years ago.

I've made this point about 100 times; no one seems to get it.

By "blow it up", people mean to give up on the dream of trying to win now and fully commit to a rebuild. It's not just about roster turnover. It's about getting younger and committing to developing that youth, even if that means losing in the short term.


And by extension it suggests committing to multiple years of lottery. Being willing to bottom out in order to earn better chances at that top spot. Now with flattened lotto odds it may be less rewarding to tank, but even with lower odds there are still players that are worth it. If you were a GM with a 40% chance at the next generational player, you'd still be happy about those odds. For many teams a 40% chance at a complete franchise turnaround for 4 years or so is worth a year of lost revenue in ticket sales and advertising.
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Re: 2021 Cap Projections 

Post#33 » by nate33 » Wed Apr 7, 2021 5:50 pm

doclinkin wrote:
nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:I've made this point about 100 times; no one seems to get it.

By "blow it up", people mean to give up on the dream of trying to win now and fully commit to a rebuild. It's not just about roster turnover. It's about getting younger and committing to developing that youth, even if that means losing in the short term.


And by extension it suggests committing to multiple years of lottery. Being willing to bottom out in order to earn better chances at that top spot. Now with flattened lotto odds it may be less rewarding to tank, but even with lower odds there are still players that are worth it. If you were a GM with a 40% chance at the next generational player, you'd still be happy about those odds. For many teams a 40% chance at a complete franchise turnaround for 4 years or so is worth a year of lost revenue in ticket sales and advertising.

Yes. And I'm not even suggesting they tank. I just expect an OKC-style season or two. It's fine to try and win, just do it with young guys carrying a heavy burden, while developing a team culture. Memphis is another example.
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Re: 2021 Cap Projections 

Post#34 » by Kanyewest » Wed Apr 7, 2021 6:06 pm

FAH1223 wrote:I laugh at the 'blow it up' talk when we only have 2 guys on the roster from 2 years ago. And only 1 guy left from our last postseason appearance 3 years ago.


You can blow up a roster multiple times.
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Re: 2021 Cap Projections 

Post#35 » by FAH1223 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:55 pm

Kanyewest wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:I laugh at the 'blow it up' talk when we only have 2 guys on the roster from 2 years ago. And only 1 guy left from our last postseason appearance 3 years ago.


You can blow up a roster multiple times.


Of course.

But I’m becoming more of the mind we move Westbrook and keep Beal. But this is all lottery dependent.
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