9 and 20 wrote:Rui 'Eye Test' Hachimura.
He's more aggressive now...
This is a pretty typical claim. Only... what makes you think so?
Maybe you mean something simple, like that he scored more points this year than last year. But he didn't. He scored slightly fewer points this year than he did last year.
Did he take more shots his 2d year than his first? Is that what you mean? Only... he didn't. He shot slightly less often his 2d year than his first year.
Did he get to the line more often his 2d year than his first year? No, he got to the line slightly less often this year than last.
Did he get more offensive rebounds this year? I can imagine thinking of that as a sign of being "more aggressive." Only... he didn't in fact, his offensive boards dropped substantially. His defensive boards dropped a bit as well, btw.
Do you perhaps mean that he saw the floor better, made better passes? Well... his assists went down @27%.
Conclusion: no Rui is not "more aggressive now." Not at all.
Moreover, overall all those numbers are both pretty bad & in sum, represent a meaningful drop, decline, getting worse, from his rookie year.
Are we clear on that? Fewer points, fewer defensive boards, fewer offensive boards, fewer assists -- &, in addition, a slight rise in turnovers, a slight drop in blocked shots, & a slight drop in fouls (finally! something got better!)
9 and 20 wrote:He's shooting the three more, and better. ...
Rui shot the 3 extremely rarely & very poorly as a rookie. This year, Rui shot the 3 a little more -- by which I mean that every 140 possessions, Rui took 1 more 3 point shot than he did last year. Wow, huh?
IOW, Rui still shoots 3-pointers pretty rarely. In fact, this year Rui shot a 3 pointer 41.5% as often as often as average for an NBA 4. Read that again.
Last year, his 3pt. % was 28.7%. This year he went up to 32.7% & there you have the big "improvement." The thing everyone wants to point to. Look how well Rui is doing! Only one little problem: on average an NBA 4 shoots his almost 2.5 times as many 3's at 36.8%.
9 and 20 wrote:Still might forever be a Jamison-level rebounder, but that's fine. If the three keeps improving and he is more consistent on the defensive end, then he's a pretty good forward. Not Giannis, but pretty good.....
& this is the kind of comment that no Wizards fan would ever have made about another draft pick in his 2d year. Because, forgive me, it makes absolutely no sense.
1. Jamison was a substantially better rebounder than Rui.
2. Doesn't the 3 have to actually get "good" -- not just improve, but actually get ABOVE AVERAGE IN % & NUMBER OF ATTEMPTS before we start pointing to it as a positive indicator?
3. & what does your conclusion mean? If he keeps getting better until he's a pretty good forward, why then he'll be a pretty good forward?
Thing is... he didn't get better this year. He got a bit worse.
See the facts above. Not hand-waving but actual facts. Rui posted a slight increase in his TS% from awful to less awful but still meaningfully below the average of ALL NBA 4s (not just guys drafted in the lottery or drafted in the top 10 but below the average of every single guy who played a minute at PF this year.
9 and 20 wrote:Kyle Kuzma seems a decent comparison....
Wow.... If Kuzma is the comparison, then Rui isn't going to be "a pretty forward," because Kyle Kuzma is not "a pretty good forward." He's a bad forward.
Rui wasn't taken #27 in the draft, like Kuzma. He was taken #9. If Kuzma is the comparison, Rui Hachimura will be a bust for a #9 pick. Fortunately, however, Rui wasn't as bad a rookie as Kuzma was. & he wasn't as bad a 2d year player as Kuzma was. Let's hope he isn't as bad as Kuzma was his 3d year.
OTOH, though this doesn't really matter long term, Rui wasn't as good as Kuzma this year either. & Kuzma wasn't even average.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.