Rui Hachimura 2.0

[prime1time]

That's unfair. It's not a sensible criticism of any NBA forward to say that he can't sustain a TS% over 70%.
You're just saying he can't do what no one else can do either. So what?


That too is unfair.
Give credit to Rui or any other player for what he accomplishes.

I wasn't criticizing him for not being able sustain shooting at that clip, as you pointed to, that would be unrealistic. What I am getting at is if people are going to elevate him to be some player that he's not based on a undeniably torrid shooting stretch during the Lakers postseason run, then it's fair to counter that they are glossing over other aspects of his game and focusing narrowly about the things that boost their opinions/arguments.

Fair enough.

In any case, who Rui is as a player must be conveyed by his whole history not 16 playoff games. Overall, in his first 4 seasons, he hasn't been particularly good.

OTOH, in his 738 regular season minutes with the Lakers he was better than he'd been with us, & obviously he shot the ball great in the post-season.
So let's see how much of that he can take with him into next season. A lot, I hope!

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=6z4wqkpeqMZTG_xeh12bjw

Rui’s ability to excel in the playoffs is more important than what he does in the regular season. Contenders need to players who can elevate their games in the playoffs. Many players do the exact opposite. They shrink in the playoffs. Only in Wizard land is this strength made into a weakness.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

I wasn't criticizing him for not being able sustain shooting at that clip, as you pointed to, that would be unrealistic. What I am getting at is if people are going to elevate him to be some player that he's not based on a undeniably torrid shooting stretch during the Lakers postseason run, then it's fair to counter that they are glossing over other aspects of his game and focusing narrowly about the things that boost their opinions/arguments.

Fair enough.

In any case, who Rui is as a player must be conveyed by his whole history not 16 playoff games. Overall, in his first 4 seasons, he hasn't been particularly good.

OTOH, in his 738 regular season minutes with the Lakers he was better than he'd been with us, & obviously he shot the ball great in the post-season.
So let's see how much of that he can take with him into next season. A lot, I hope!

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=6z4wqkpeqMZTG_xeh12bjw

Rui’s ability to excel in the playoffs is more important than what he does in the regular season. Contenders need to players who can elevate their games in the playoffs. Many players do the exact opposite. They shrink in the playoffs. Only in Wizard land is this strength made into a weakness.

While I won't disagree that performing in the playoffs is on equal quite a bit more important than the regular season games, the regular season still matters a lot. How you perform there helps determine and impacts your ability to perform in the postseason.

Also elevating your game in the postseason is great, and Rui certainly did that with his scoring this postseason, but there are other things aside from scoring that factor into elevating your game, too. You seemingly only want to consider scoring when evaluating Rui, and at the same time seem to want to skim over the other factors aside from his scoring. While it of course isn't all of his fault or even the majority his fault playoff loses he's been apart of, his presence on the floor, the things he does and doesn't do, is at the very least part of the story.

[Kanyewest]

Lakers Rumors: Rui Hachimura Contract May Force LA to Walk Away If PF Wants $20M+ AAV
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10077833-lakers-rumors-rui-hachimura-contract-may-force-la-to-walk-away-if-pf-wants-20m-aav

[payitforward]

Rui’s ability to excel in the playoffs is more important than what he does in the regular season. Contenders need to players who can elevate their games in the playoffs. Many players do the exact opposite. They shrink in the playoffs. Only in Wizard land is this strength made into a weakness.

Well, you didn't call anyone a "hater," so that's good.

Still, there was no need for that last sentence. Everybody understands the value of performing well in the playoffs. & if Rui maintains that, or even gets better at it (!), he'll be that much more valuable a player. Good for him!

[prime1time]

Fair enough.

In any case, who Rui is as a player must be conveyed by his whole history not 16 playoff games. Overall, in his first 4 seasons, he hasn't been particularly good.

OTOH, in his 738 regular season minutes with the Lakers he was better than he'd been with us, & obviously he shot the ball great in the post-season.
So let's see how much of that he can take with him into next season. A lot, I hope!

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=6z4wqkpeqMZTG_xeh12bjw

Rui’s ability to excel in the playoffs is more important than what he does in the regular season. Contenders need to players who can elevate their games in the playoffs. Many players do the exact opposite. They shrink in the playoffs. Only in Wizard land is this strength made into a weakness.

While I won't disagree that performing in the playoffs is on equal quite a bit more important than the regular season games, the regular season still matters a lot. How you perform there helps determine and impacts your ability to perform in the postseason.

Also elevating your game in the postseason is great, and Rui certainly did that with his scoring this postseason, but there are other things aside from scoring that factor into elevating your game, too. You seemingly only want to consider scoring when evaluating Rui, and at the same time seem to want to skim over the other factors aside from his scoring. While it of course isn't all of his fault or even the majority his fault playoff loses he's been apart of, his presence on the floor, the things he does and doesn't do, is at the very least part of the story.

Always weird to me when people respond while ignoring what I posted. One of the best GM's of the last decade literally said, "Watch the playoffs, you know who can play basketball." And stop trotting out myths and actually make an argument based on reality. The notion that Hachimura is a one-dimensional player is a myth. He had a OBPM of 1.3 in the playoffs. He had a DBPM of .9 in the playoffs.

Also, this is from The Athletic concerning Rui.

"Hachimura had defended elite bigs well throughout his Lakers tenure, including, most notably, Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns in the regular season and Play-In tournament game and Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr. in the first round. His wide frame, strength and low center of gravity against bigger players make him an effective post defender.

Please stop disseminating the myth that Hachimura is a player that you need to hide on defense. During this most recent playoff run, he showed he was an ASSET defensively. 9 times out of 10, when a player guards 1-5 and plays adequate defense his defense is viewed as an asset. Hachimura switched onto elite guards like Ja Morant and great centers like Nikola Jokic. Far from hiding him, the Lakers were putting him on the team's best scorers and using AD as a secondary defender.

[prime1time]

The inability of this board to be objective is actually hilarious. During the Lakers/Nuggets series, Rui haters are literally in here talking about, "He can't stop Jokic." What in the world? Notice the bizarreness of this 'all or nothing" thinking. Who cares that he slowed down Karl-Anthony Towns and JJJ. When we first drafted Rui and the conversation was more objective, people asked if Rui was quick enough to defend quick guards. Well, this playoffs he did. He adequately guarded 1-5 and proved, once again, that he can score at an effective rate in the playoffs.

It's hilarious to see all of the, "he can't keep up these offensive numbers" posts. So what if he can't keep it up. The importance behind his offensive success isn't that he can keep it up, but that his offensive game is advanced e nough that he can't easily be stopped. Again, the underlying assumption behind Rui's detractors is that out of nowhere, Rui's going to fall off the offensive cliff and suddenly suck offensively. It's bizarre reading all of these hypocritical posts. For every other player in the league, they'll break them down and look at their skill sets. The draft thread is filled with these kinds of analyses. But with Hachimura everything is luck and chance.

Basically, every post they make is to say, "Yes, he's scoring well now but it's complete luck, next game he might suck so we can completely ignore it when analyzing him as a player." In their mind, Rui Hachimura is the only player in the world where everything he does offensively has no connection to underlying offensive skill. The real truth, is that Hachimura is a highly skilled offensive player that can score in a multitude of ways. Pick and Pop, Pick and Roll, one-step dribble pull-up, two-step dribble pull-up, attack the hoop in both half court and transition, set 3's and posting-up smaller defenders to name a few.

Rui's great underlying skill offensive skill is what enables him to post these gaudy offensive numbers during the playoffs. This is why Hachimura will get paid this summer. Which leads right into the favorite anti-Rui talking point in this thread. It's become the go to chant for Rui detractors since his successful playoff run began, "We'd have to overpay him!" Funny how easily his detractors moved from "he sucks" to, "we'd have to overpay him" with no critical objective analysis in between. I guess we'll see as his career unfolds what will happen.

[prime1time]

There's something deeply wrong with an organization where a player they can draft can do everything that is expected of him. *I'm not talking about the moving goalposts that his detractors have instituted to ensure their argumentative high ground* but rather the goals that were laid out when he was first drafted and the team just up and move on from him. Using Tommy Sheppard's own press conference after Rui was drafted as the evaluative criteria, Rui objectively accomplished everything that was expected of him. If we decided to move on, because we objectively had something better in the works I could understand but for our organization, the only thing that is ahead of us is miles nad miles of mediocrity.

Tommy Sheppard made some good moves as a GM but it is objectively fair to say that he deserved to be fired and he is a mediocre GM at best. After all the moves and all the trades and all the draft picks, the Wizards are in the same place we were in when Sheppard took over, mediocre.

[tleikheen]

Rui is going to be at the 4 yr/20 million range by showing everyone what his game is in Primetime. Locked on Lakers guys think thats where his ceiling is going to be.
Rui haters here think he should have gone with the Wizards lowball offer and been content to be a bench player for a Coach that didnt like him. WUJ wanted minutes for Avidja and he hasnt risen his game up to justify his opportunity . Rui getting a good contract is egg in the face for the Washinton Wizard franchise .

{The door may be slightly ajar for teams hoping to poach Rui Hachimura from the Los Angeles Lakers.

Lakers beat writer Jovan Buha of The Athletic wrote that the Lakers, who have matching rights on Hachimura as a restricted free agent, may have a walk-away number when it comes to the 25-year-old forward. Buha says that $20 million annually for Hachimura (for instance, a contract worth $80 million over four years) is where “things might get a bit dicey.” However, Buha believes that an annual figure at or below that $20 million threshold would “probably” mean that Hachimura is back with the Lakers.}

[payitforward]

...During the Lakers/Nuggets series, Rui haters are...

Sigh... I really hoped that that had gone away.

...I guess we'll see as his career unfolds what will happen.

Yup. & I wish him well!

[DCZards]

I like Rui and supported him both as a Zard and as a Laker. He’s a good scorer and defender but very mediocre in other aspects of the game of basketball.

Somehow I don’t think most Wizard fans or the Wizards organization are going to lose any sleep over missing out on having to pay Rui $20 mil a year.

[tleikheen]

Somehow I don’t think most Wizard fans or the Wizards organization are going to lose any sleep over missing out on having to pay Rui $20 mil a year.

Thats how you stay a mediocre franchise when fans dont care about getting fleeced by another organization for its high draft pick who flourishes and plays to his potential when gone from the Wizards. Then signs another player for 25 million whos older and played very average and shot poorly when he was in the playoffs.

[nate33]

Somehow I don’t think most Wizard fans or the Wizards organization are going to lose any sleep over missing out on having to pay Rui $20 mil a year.

Thats how you stay a mediocre franchise when fans dont care about getting fleeced by another organization for its high draft pick who flourishes and plays to his potential when gone from the Wizards. Then signs another player for 25 million whos older and played very average and shot poorly when he was in the playoffs.

The signing of Kuzma is a totally separate issue. I think it is well established that nobody on this board will be happy to see Kuzma signed to a deal over $20M a year.

But that doesn't change my assessment of Rui. Rui is extremely skilled as a shooter and has a great frame and impressive agility for his size, but he is pretty terrible at making basketball decisions on the fly, whether that's as a playmaker on offense or a help defender on defense. If he is put in a position where he has simplified roles to play (on-ball defender on defense, catch and shoot finisher on offense and shot creator if the clock is winding down), he can be very useful. The Lakers had the personnel to put Rui in a position to succeed and it showed. Rui did a great job. Kudos to him. But I'd still be wary of paying him what is likely to be a price in the $16-20M range.

And let's not pretend the shooting of "playoff Rui" is anything other than a low sample-size aberration. His good shooting demonstrates that Rui isn't scared of the bright lights, which is absolutely a good thing, but you can't just project his playoff performance as the baseline of his future production. We have 5000+ minutes of evidence that Rui's TS% is likely to be in the .560 -.590 range. If he spends the rest of his career posting a .668% TS% like he did in the playoffs, I'll eat my hat.

[payitforward]

There's something deeply wrong with an organization where a player they can draft can do everything that is expected of him. *I'm not talking about the moving goalposts that his detractors have instituted to ensure their argumentative high ground* but rather the goals that were laid out when he was first drafted and the team just up and move on from him.

Here's a fact -- On his career so far, Rui has played 5654 regular-season minutes, almost all of them at the 4.

Here's another fact -- over those 4 years Rui has averaged 18.6 points per 40 minutes -- almost exactly the average of all NBA 4s.

Here's another fact -- over those 4 years Rui has averaged a Total Scoring Percentage of .552 -- meaningfully below the average of all NBA 4s.

Here's another fact -- over those 4 years Rui has averaged 6 defensive boards per 40 minutes -- meaningfully fewer than the average of all NBA 4s.

Here's another fact -- over those 4 years Rui has averaged just under 1.5 offensive boards per 40 minutes -- meaningfully below the average of all NBA 4s.

Here's another fact -- over those 4 years Rui has averaged just under 2 assists -- meaningfully fewer than the average of all NBA 4s.

Here's another fact -- over those 4 years Rui has averaged 1.5 turnovers per 40 minutes -- meaningfully better than the average of all NBA 4s.

Here's another fact -- over those 4 years Rui has averaged .33 blocks -- -- meaningfully fewer than the average of all NBA 4s.

Here's another fact -- over those 4 years Rui has averaged 2.5 fouls per 40 minutes -- meaningfully better than the average of all NBA 4s.

Now, those basketball activities may not represent everything significant about a player (Rui or any other player), in which case I'd be happy to hear what other activities matter & what Rui's numbers were in those activities. But, to the degree that these number do matter -- that scoring, rebounding, assists, turnovers & fouls matter in judging an NBA player -- the only conclusion to be drawn is that Rui has been well below average overall as an NBA player at his position.

Now, neither in that conclusion nor in the numbers behind that judgement will you find any "anti-Rui" prejudice or any "hate." I have used those exact activities in looking at every player I've ever assessed. Good, bad, & indifferent. Nor did Rui's numbers show any continuity of improvement overall from year to year -- with the exception of Rui's 3 pt. % which improved somewhat his 2d year & then a whole lot his 3d year before falling significantly in his 4th year.

If we look at those same numbers for Rui's 700+ regular season minutes as a Laker, we will find that they are more or less at his career average except for rebounding which went up -- with the effect that overall his regular season numbers as a Laker were a little better than his career average numbers. Thus, in that stretch he was a better player than his career average. Not up to average overall, but better all the same.

In the playoffs, on the other hand, Rui had a very good stretch scoring the ball. I don't think his other numbers varied much from career averages, at least not overall, but his scoring did.

That's important, & it's good. & it'll definitely be something to follow as we pay attention to Rui next year.

But, that's all it is. I.e., it's not some secret metaphysical key to how good Rui is independent of his numbers compared t the numbers of any other NBA player at his position.

It wouldn't be that for any other player, & it isn't that for Rui either.

[Dat2U]

I wasn't criticizing him for not being able sustain shooting at that clip, as you pointed to, that would be unrealistic. What I am getting at is if people are going to elevate him to be some player that he's not based on a undeniably torrid shooting stretch during the Lakers postseason run, then it's fair to counter that they are glossing over other aspects of his game and focusing narrowly about the things that boost their opinions/arguments.

Fair enough.

In any case, who Rui is as a player must be conveyed by his whole history not 16 playoff games. Overall, in his first 4 seasons, he hasn't been particularly good.

OTOH, in his 738 regular season minutes with the Lakers he was better than he'd been with us, & obviously he shot the ball great in the post-season.
So let's see how much of that he can take with him into next season. A lot, I hope!

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=6z4wqkpeqMZTG_xeh12bjw

Rui’s ability to excel in the playoffs is more important than what he does in the regular season. Contenders need to players who can elevate their games in the playoffs. Many players do the exact opposite. They shrink in the playoffs. Only in Wizard land is this strength made into a weakness.

Yes every team needs an 'Austin Croshere' type

[9 and 20]

Somehow I don’t think most Wizard fans or the Wizards organization are going to lose any sleep over missing out on having to pay Rui $20 mil a year.

Thats how you stay a mediocre franchise when fans dont care about getting fleeced by another organization for its high draft pick who flourishes and plays to his potential when gone from the Wizards. Then signs another player for 25 million whos older and played very average and shot poorly when he was in the playoffs.

The signing of Kuzma is a totally separate issue. I think it is well established that nobody on this board will be happy to see Kuzma signed to a deal over $20M a year.

But that doesn't change my assessment of Rui. Rui is extremely skilled as a shooter and has a great frame and impressive agility for his size, but he is pretty terrible at making basketball decisions on the fly, whether that's as a playmaker on offense or a help defender on defense. If he is put in a position where he has simplified roles to play (on-ball defender on defense, catch and shoot finisher on offense and shot creator if the clock is winding down), he can be very useful. The Lakers had the personnel to put Rui in a position to succeed and it showed. Rui did a great job. Kudos to him. But I'd still be wary of paying him what is likely to be a price in the $16-20M range.

And let's not pretend the shooting of "playoff Rui" is anything other than a low sample-size aberration. His good shooting demonstrates that Rui isn't scared of the bright lights, which is absolutely a good thing, but you can't just project his playoff performance as the baseline of his future production. We have 5000+ minutes of evidence that Rui's TS% is likely to be in the .560 -.590 range. If he spends the rest of his career posting a .668% TS% like he did in the playoffs, I'll eat my hat.

Talking about playoff performance when the team is winning 30 or 35 games a year.

Watch on YouTube

[willbcocks]

We got market value for Rui. I would not want to pay him FA money. Pretty easy decision, and not one I would ever lose sleep over.

[payitforward]

A breath of fresh air....