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Political Roundtable Part XXX

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#641 » by Zonkerbl » Sun Nov 14, 2021 5:03 am

Interesting article, proves a point that no one has been willing to say out loud - Trump and the GOP's hard turn towards racism has radicalized educated white people, like myself. I used to be a moderate. The GOP's embrace of racism has pushed huge chunks of the US electorate to the left. I don't know if it will have any consequences, but there it is.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/racial-attitudes-shifted-over-the-past-decade-leaving-the-two-parties-further-apart-than-ever/2021/11/13/2857cbd6-4406-11ec-a3aa-0255edc02eb7_story.html
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#642 » by verbal8 » Sun Nov 14, 2021 2:27 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:Interesting article, proves a point that no one has been willing to say out loud - Trump and the GOP's hard turn towards racism has radicalized educated white people, like myself. I used to be a moderate. The GOP's embrace of racism has pushed huge chunks of the US electorate to the left. I don't know if it will have any consequences, but there it is.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/racial-attitudes-shifted-over-the-past-decade-leaving-the-two-parties-further-apart-than-ever/2021/11/13/2857cbd6-4406-11ec-a3aa-0255edc02eb7_story.html


I think the long-term effect will defend on how much the GOP is tied to Trump vs. him being seen as an aberration.

If the GOP is seen as linked to Trump, I think his downfall will have a reverse "FDR effect". I think there are 3 categories where this could have an impact. It could shift Dem leaning voters to the left. It could make "never Trump" Republicans lean to the Dems - even if they don't permanently become Dem voters. It also could lower the political participation of hard-core Trumpers.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#643 » by pancakes3 » Sun Nov 14, 2021 2:39 pm

Dems running on a platform of tying the party to Trump instead of messaging issues lost the governorship to Youngkin
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#644 » by Zonkerbl » Sun Nov 14, 2021 3:10 pm

I'm not reading too much into that one data point, considering that the governorship of Virginia has gone to the party opposite the POTUS elected the previous year like ten out of ten times over the last several decades, like Rachel Maddow pointed out. I'm more worried about Biden's underwater approval ratings. That's the problem with trying to do stuff - to get what you want you have to demand ten times more than you'll think you'll get, which is fine in terms of negotiation tactics but then it raises everybody's expectations and when you do get what you want and say "haha I was just lying about wanting all that other stuff, I'm happy with one tenth" you lose the people who actually wanted all the stuff. So now after getting a huge win with the infra plan everybody's disappointed. And we still don't know what's going into the reconciliation bill. Will Manchin renege and demand everything be cut again? What's stopping him?

I dunno - there's a lot that can happen between now and Nov 2022, like the SCOTUS could strike down Roe v. Wade, which would be a huge gift to the Dems. And I bet they’ll do it, knowing that the pendulum is swinging against the Dems anyway and they’ll probably get away with it. And knowing, from decades of experience, that handing the Dems a gift, like Trump winning the primaries, is no guarantee the Dems will handle it competently.

Another thing that could happen is a huge economic resurgence, which the GOP are waving their hands at and going, hey look over here! supply chain driven inflation! But the truth of it is going to dawn on people eventually. But yeah right now it's looking like a good 80% chance the Dems lose the house in 2022.

Pancakes to your point, I think only the Republicans know how to artificially manipulate people to come out and vote for them. With the dems you have to hope for outside factors like the economy, or the Republicans overreaching. In other words I don't think it matters what Dems say during their election campaigns, it has no impact on the elections one way or the other.

Another thing that worries me is people are really, really stupid on average. The default decision is to join the winning team, no matter how repugnant they are. We've all seen Dallas fans flying Dallas flags in DC - it's easy to root for evil, when they're winning. One thing the Republicans have learned to do really, really well - always look like you're winning. Dems have mastered the opposite.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#645 » by verbal8 » Sun Nov 14, 2021 3:45 pm

I think Virginia is more purple anti-Trump than it is fully a blue state at this point. I think Youngkin pulled off a balancing act that with Trump that many candidates can't. Having no past record in government was very helpful to him.

The GOP may end up wishing that Youngkin fell short. His governing is likely to end up being either very disappointing to the GOP or unpopular in Virginia.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#646 » by pancakes3 » Sun Nov 14, 2021 8:35 pm

Virginia used to have a strong history of flipping on gubernatorial elections, until McAuliffe. who won in 2014 despite Obama winning in 2012. It was supposed to be a trend that Virginia was urbanizing and no longer purple (Va was purple in the early 2000's when Mark Warner and Tim Kaine were winning elections).

This is a huge setback. Even if you characterize it as a reversion to the mean, the mean is a setback because Virginia historically, has been pretty dang regressive.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#647 » by TGW » Sun Nov 14, 2021 10:07 pm

pancakes3 wrote:Dems running on a platform of tying the party to Trump instead of messaging issues lost the governorship to Youngkin


And this trend of overefocusing on the orange boogeyman is going to lose the Democrats the midterms and WH too. The Biden Administration has been a mess and his approval ratings are tanking.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#648 » by Pointgod » Tue Nov 16, 2021 12:58 am

pancakes3 wrote:Dems running on a platform of tying the party to Trump instead of messaging issues lost the governorship to Youngkin


There were way too many factors to boil it down to this simplistic argument. I don’t think anyone here could tell you a guaranteed winning argument in Virginia. I definitely think Mccauliffe ran a poor campaign but Democratic turnout was actually up compared to 2017, it’s just that the Republican turnout was juiced to unprecedented levels and at the end of the day Youngkin won by 60,000 votes. People saw Youngkin was a Mitt Romney type of candidate and he smartly stayed away from Trump.

At the end of the day maybe it’s just history playing out. Democrats should be less worried about this individual race and the structural problem of losing Rural votes. If Republicans start juicing the Rural votes and getting back the suburbs, Democrats have a big problem long term.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#649 » by Zonkerbl » Tue Nov 16, 2021 4:01 pm

Revisions to jobs numbers show US economy has been doing great. Explains why there's been so much supply chain issues - explosive economic growth as the economy recovers from the disaster that was Trump.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/11/16/government-underestimated-job-growth/
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#650 » by dobrojim » Fri Nov 19, 2021 4:03 am

I may get a letter published in the Post soon. Stay tuned.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#651 » by Zonkerbl » Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:03 pm

Lots of interesting trials going on right now, Rittenhouse, Aubery, and Charlottesville, where the Nazis are playing neo Nazi recruitment videos in their closing arguments:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/11/18/charlottesville-white-supremacist-lawsuit-goes-jury/8674688002/
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#652 » by Zonkerbl » Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:41 pm

Interesting that Paul Romer's team's ideas have burst into the mainstream:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2021/africa-cities/?itid=hp-top-table-main

Romer's thesis is not only is urban planning crucially important, but that urban planners typically plan, on average, for half the growth their cities actually experience. When you move to a city, on average your income rises. When your income rises, you can afford a bigger apartment. The increase in per capita demand for land is what land planners never account for.

An interesting distinction between African cities is why they grow - most cities exist because jobs were created there at some point in the past, and people seeking employment were attracted to the city. In Africa, one of the main drivers of population growth is people needing to flee violence and poverty in rural areas. There's no job waiting for them in the city.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#653 » by pancakes3 » Fri Nov 19, 2021 3:02 pm

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#654 » by dckingsfan » Fri Nov 19, 2021 3:09 pm

Pointgod wrote:
pancakes3 wrote:Dems running on a platform of tying the party to Trump instead of messaging issues lost the governorship to Youngkin


There were way too many factors to boil it down to this simplistic argument. I don’t think anyone here could tell you a guaranteed winning argument in Virginia. I definitely think Mccauliffe ran a poor campaign but Democratic turnout was actually up compared to 2017, it’s just that the Republican turnout was juiced to unprecedented levels and at the end of the day Youngkin won by 60,000 votes. People saw Youngkin was a Mitt Romney type of candidate and he smartly stayed away from Trump.

At the end of the day maybe it’s just history playing out. Democrats should be less worried about this individual race and the structural problem of losing Rural votes. If Republicans start juicing the Rural votes and getting back the suburbs, Democrats have a big problem long term.

I think it was due to the mess in Afghanistan and the false notion that the economy is struggling. Add to that - young people didn't come out and vote (go figure).
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#655 » by Zonkerbl » Fri Nov 19, 2021 3:41 pm

Getting my booster on monday, wewt!
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#656 » by Ruzious » Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:06 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:Getting my booster on monday, wewt!

Good, and don't forget to get your flu shot - if you haven't already gotten it.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#657 » by Zonkerbl » Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:28 pm

Ruzious wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:Getting my booster on monday, wewt!

Good, and don't forget to get your flu shot - if you haven't already gotten it.


Yeah got my flu shot a long time ago, I was in the dr's office for some random reason and they had just gotten the flu shot in, so I've had it since September or something
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#658 » by Zonkerbl » Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:03 pm

So if you haven't heard by now, Kyle Rittenhouse was found not guilty on all counts. There just was not enough footage of him irresponsibly brandishing his guns at his victims and talking trash - everywhere we had actual footage he was fleeing in fear (arguably from people who thought he was a mass shooter, but that doesn't matter). Frustrating but that's how the system works for white people who can afford good representation.

I'm really angry about it naturally. At least it's over now - to be honest I have personal stuff that I need to worry about. You all take care of yourselves and just remember - just because Kyle got away with it doesn't make what he did good or right. He's still a Klan-sponsored domestic terrorist who got away with murder.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#659 » by closg00 » Fri Nov 19, 2021 11:19 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:So if you haven't heard by now, Kyle Rittenhouse was found not guilty on all counts. There just was not enough footage of him irresponsibly brandishing his guns at his victims and talking trash - everywhere we had actual footage he was fleeing in fear (arguably from people who thought he was a mass shooter, but that doesn't matter). Frustrating but that's how the system works for white people who can afford good representation.

I'm really angry about it naturally. At least it's over now - to be honest I have personal stuff that I need to worry about. You all take care of yourselves and just remember - just because Kyle got away with it doesn't make what he did good or right. He's still a Klan-sponsored domestic terrorist who got away with murder.


:( Just holding my breath in the Ahmaud Arbery case, it's Georgia, anything can happen. MAGA is acting like their team won the Super Bowl in the Rittenhouse case because Rittenhouse was able kill "BLM" protestors while armed, they are nutting themselves.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXX 

Post#660 » by Zonkerbl » Sat Nov 20, 2021 12:21 am

We are in hell right now. Looking forward to taking some business trips to Africa, get away from the nonsense, try to help people.
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