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Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday

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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#101 » by pcbothwel » Wed Aug 18, 2021 2:33 pm

DCZards wrote:I believe Tommy & Co. see something in Holiday beyond what the 24 year old has been able to show thus far in his short career.

Maybe TS sees it in the analytics. Maybe it’s in the scouting and videos.

Tommy was right on Neto and, while he was overpaid, they were right on Capt. Hook (Lopez). I’ve got a hunch TS could be right on Holiday and his upside as well.


Totally agree...but, Holiday is an expiring.
So IF he proves to be a legit top end backup up PG, then we have to pay him the market rate of 5-10M/year for 2-3 years. If we had taken someone like McBride, you get similar production/archetype (3&D PG) for FAR cheaper. This allows flexibility with future transactions.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#102 » by DCZards » Wed Aug 18, 2021 3:10 pm

payitforward wrote:Combine all that with being a good defender, & it would make Aaron Holiday a player worth having. Right now, however, they are still walking around the Front Office in Indiana, exclaiming "Do you believe we traded Aaron for the 22d pick in the 2021 draft? Plus... what is his name...? Oh yeah, Isaiah Todd?"

It's possible that both the Indiana front office AND the Zards FO believe the trade was a winner for them. I know you didn't like the trade for the Zards but i'm sure there are other moves that the Zards have made that you disagreed with...and turned out to be wrong about.

payitforward wrote:We just traded away a Round 1 pick. When's the last time that turned out to be a good idea? There must be a case or two out there.... But, I'd a whole lot rather have one of Isaiah Jackson, Usman Garuba, Bones Hyland, Quentin Grimes or Jaden Springer than I would Holiday plus Isaiah Todd.

Were you advocating for drafting Jackson, Bones or Grimes before the draft...or have you just discovered them now that they've played well in Summer League? (You may have brought up their names before the draft, pif, I just don't remember.)
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#103 » by doclinkin » Wed Aug 18, 2021 3:49 pm

payitforward wrote:As to being "disagreeable," doc -- what I am is frustrated. I'm a Wizards fan, & I'm tired of the decades & decades of overall dismal performance, broken occasionally by an unexpected surge all the way up to meh.

We just traded away a Round 1 pick. When's the last time that turned out to be a good idea? There must be a case or two out there.... But, I'd a whole lot rather have one of Isaiah Jackson, Usman Garuba, Bones Hyland, Quentin Grimes or Jaden Springer than I would Holiday plus Isaiah Todd.

Now... had we done something sensible with that #31 pick, something we could easily have done as we both know, & so wound up with, say, Miles McBride & Neemias Queta, that would be different.


When was the last time that trading a 1st round pick was a good idea? One could argue: last year when we swapped Wall +1 for Westbrook.

So basically the quibble is only if the upside of Isaiah Todd proves better than the production of McBride and Queta. Because regarding the rest:

We traded away a late first round pick to provide leverage and flexibility for the Dinwiddie sign and trade. I would trade away a #22 pick for the 1st pick in the 2nd round to get Holiday, Dinwiddie, Kuzma, KCP, Harrell and a better chance at Beal, basically.

Though yeah I have mixed feelings about re-signing Beal at the price he will command. Still, if Westbrook didn't want to be here, what better deal could we pull? If the mandate from Ted is keep Beal in the fold, what better winner could we assemble that will time to peak along with his career years.

I am with you on the 'meh' but the team currently assembled at least has a CHANCE to improve. We have depth in decent players. We have young players with upside, some entering their likely prime or what is commonly a young player's breakout years; we have tradeable contracts, a few developing assets; yes we lost a 1st round pick in the Westbrook trade, and traded back in this years draft, but we mostly shuffled a few 2nd round picks, and KCP, Harrell, even Kuzma are players who will give production equivalent to a late first. We even get a TPE from the Hutchison trade. Tommy has worked magic in the past with nothing in his pocket but TPE's and good will.

Personally, while I don't think this team as it is right now has championship potential, I am still astounded by the cojones and savvy Tommy has shown in making bold moves to improve the roster. A total tear-down. Yeah maybe his draft scouting acumen is still in doubt. We are waiting on Rui, Deni, Todd to show us. But everything else he has done outside of the draft is fairly radical, creative, smart. So I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on, for instance, Aaron Holiday. Even if he was just a placeholder to give us some negotiating power in the Dinwiddie swap.

We will see, but I am excited to watch this team. I can see line-ups and chemistry that could work. Health allowing. Wes seems an ideal coach to tinker with the possibilities. We might mess around and win a bunch of games. And if it doesn't quite work there are still opportunities to get better. For better or for worse, this is finally entirely Tommy's team. He is a gunslinger when it comes to trade moves, and the players he picked up look like a full belt of bullets to me.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#104 » by payitforward » Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:01 pm

DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:Combine all that with being a good defender, & it would make Aaron Holiday a player worth having. Right now, however, they are still walking around the Front Office in Indiana, exclaiming "Do you believe we traded Aaron for the 22d pick in the 2021 draft? Plus... what is his name...? Oh yeah, Isaiah Todd?"

It's possible that both the Indiana front office AND the Zards FO believe the trade was a winner for them. I know you didn't like the trade for the Zards but i'm sure there are other moves that the Zards have made that you disagreed with...and turned out to be wrong about....

It's more than possible that both FOs thought the trade was a winner for them -- it's a given! Otherwise, why make the trade at all? Moreover, they both may be right! Aaron may turn out to be terrific. Ditto Jackson & Todd.

I'm not actually all that negative on Aaron Holiday (although I cannot see how anyone can think he's played well so far in his 3 years). Just staying with him, probably my biggest problem with the move is that we already have someone whom I see as very similar: Cassius Winston.

They are the same size, & if you look at their college careers (e.g. compare their numbers per 40 minutes in 17-18 when CW was a sophomore & AH a junior), Cassius was, if anything, more productive. They both played in excellent college programs against tough levels of competition. I can't help but wonder what would have happened to them in the draft, if they'd been named Cassius Holiday & Aaron Winston if you know what I mean.

But, independent of Holiday, I think it is tantamount to a sin to trade away a R1 pick. & in a draft like this one? An incredibly deep one? Wow..., I just can't see it at all. I thought it was extraordinary that Tommy managed to get that #22 pick in the Russ trade. Moving it for (at best -- if he gets there) a journeyman? It's awfully short-sighted.

Of course, one can imagine that trade involving 6 teams rather than 5, & all the player movement being, therefore, part of a single deal. We'd never have had the #22 pick. & overall I'd still be thinking it was a great trade to move Russ & get back Kuzma, Holiday, Harrell, KCP & the #31 pick.

As to other moves we made that I didn't like -- there were plenty in the Grunfeld era. I can't recall being wrong about those, though of course I must have been wrong sometimes!

Anyway, it's not about keeping score on me. It's about keeping score on the Wizards. Who have not been successful.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#105 » by payitforward » Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:18 pm

DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:We just traded away a Round 1 pick. When's the last time that turned out to be a good idea? There must be a case or two out there.... But, I'd a whole lot rather have one of Isaiah Jackson, Usman Garuba, Bones Hyland, Quentin Grimes or Jaden Springer than I would Holiday plus Isaiah Todd.

Were you advocating for drafting Jackson, Bones or Grimes before the draft...or have you just discovered them now that they've played well in Summer League? (You may have brought up their names before the draft, pif, I just don't remember.)

Fair point. :) Then again, we only had 1 pick, the #15. I wouldn't have thought of any of those 3 for the #15.

But, I am certainly on record as liking Garuba & Springer. In fairness, I think that does the trick. Of course... they could all turn out to be meh! Ditto Todd whom I wouldn't have drafted. But also ditto McBride :) whom I would have.

Overall, Zards, in this as in everything I am no doubt more like than unlike the rest of us: the more of my mistakes I forget, the better my record looks!

In draft picks, in... wife picks, you name it! :)

Allow me to illustrate with a story: one day almost 40 years ago, I was driving on Dolores St. in San Francisco thinking about the axxhole who had just fired me. "Just like that other axxhole, whatshisname, who fired me," I mused. Which of course brought to mind another axxhole who'd fired me, and....

After about 3 blocks of this train of thought I suddenly realized something that made me pull to the side of the road, sit in my car & think. "What," I asked myself, "is the single thread that holds all these incidents together? What do they have in common?"

I'm guessing you know the answer. Only took me a few seconds to identify it. The answer was... "me." I was what all these events had in common.

I decided there & then that I would no longer work for anyone. I'd have to make my way by other means. & so I did. That's how I wound up starting my own businesses &, eventually, becoming a (very minor) tech entrepreneur. Everything's connected!
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#106 » by DCZards » Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:37 pm

payitforward wrote:
But, independent of Holiday, I think it is tantamount to a sin to trade away a R1 pick. & in a draft like this one? An incredibly deep one? Wow..., I just can't see it at all. I thought it was extraordinary that Tommy managed to get that #22 pick in the Russ trade. Moving it for (at best -- if he gets there) a journeyman? It's awfully short-sighted.

Shepherd might argue that he traded the 22nd pick for a player he believes has first round potential (Todd) and Holiday, a good defender who TS probably sees as someone who can immediately come in and be a solid backup at PG.

Fact is, TS did what you in particular ALWAYS want the Zards to do: he traded a late first round pick (#22) for two picks/players—Holiday & Todd—who could turn out to be quality contributors. It just so happens that Holiday is 24 years old with 3 years of NBA experience and not a 19 or 20 year old rookie.

Tommy may have totally screwed up or he could have made a great move in trading #22 for Todd & Holiday. I guess time will tell.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#107 » by TGW » Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:42 pm

Oh he screwed up. There's absolutely going to be a player picked in between #22 and #31 that is better than both Holliday and Todd.

This was an awful move IMO.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#108 » by Gig18 » Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:48 pm

DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:
But, independent of Holiday, I think it is tantamount to a sin to trade away a R1 pick. & in a draft like this one? An incredibly deep one? Wow..., I just can't see it at all. I thought it was extraordinary that Tommy managed to get that #22 pick in the Russ trade. Moving it for (at best -- if he gets there) a journeyman? It's awfully short-sighted.

Shepherd might argue that he traded the 22nd pick for a player he believes has first round potential (Todd) and Holiday, a good defender who TS probably sees as someone who can immediately come in and be a solid backup at PG.

Fact is, TS did what you in particular ALWAYS want the Zards to do: he traded a late first round pick (#22) for two picks/players—Holiday & Todd—who could turn out to be quality contributors. It just so happens that Holiday is 24 years old with 3 years of NBA experience and not a 19 or 20 year old rookie.

Tommy may have totally screwed up or he could have made a great move in trading #22 for Todd & Holiday. I guess time will tell.

Yup.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#109 » by payitforward » Wed Aug 18, 2021 8:19 pm

DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:But, independent of Holiday, I think it is tantamount to a sin to trade away a R1 pick. & in a draft like this one? An incredibly deep one? Wow..., I just can't see it at all. I thought it was extraordinary that Tommy managed to get that #22 pick in the Russ trade. Moving it for (at best -- if he gets there) a journeyman? It's awfully short-sighted.

Shepherd might argue that he traded the 22nd pick for a player he believes has first round potential (Todd) and Holiday, a good defender who TS probably sees as someone who can immediately come in and be a solid backup at PG.

Fact is, TS did what you in particular ALWAYS want the Zards to do: he traded a late first round pick (#22) for two picks/players—Holiday & Todd—who could turn out to be quality contributors. It just so happens that Holiday is 24 years old with 3 years of NBA experience and not a 19 or 20 year old rookie....

Umm... I was hoping no one would come up with that.... :)

DCZards wrote:Tommy may have totally screwed up or he could have made a great move in trading #22 for Todd & Holiday. I guess time will tell.

Or, more likely, somewhere in between. &, in fairness, one of the advantages of trading 1 for 2 is lowering the chances of a total screw up.

Upon reflection, Zards, I believe the honest truth is this: if we'd traded 31 for 34 & 36 (which is what the Knicks got for 32) & then we'd picked Miles McBride & another prospect I liked, I'd be praising the swap of 22 for Holiday/31 instead of criticizing it the way I am. I'd have thought Tommy had done something extremely creative.

IOW, it comes down to Todd -- or, rather, Todd vs. McBride & one other guy. But, of course I have to name that guy now! Otherwise, later on I'll pick whoever turned out best; that's an unfair advantage.

Having picked McBride, I couldn't make it Sharife Cooper; I wouldn't have been likely to take two point guards. So, being straightforward, it would have been one of Thor, Dosonmu, Queta, Butler, & Wieskamp.

Tell you what. I'm making it Wieskamp.... we trade the #22 for Holiday & #31, which we turn into #34 & #36, & we walk away with Holiday, McBride & Wieskamp out of the deal.

Now... if McBride & Wieskamp don't turn out to be better (the sum of them) than Todd, I'm wrong. If they do, I'm right. & vice versa for you.

But... what if we hadn't made the trade for Holiday? I'd have picked Springer at 22.

So... if Springer is better than Holiday & Todd (the sum of their value), then that would have been the better move, & I'm right. If he isn't, you're right.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#110 » by payitforward » Wed Aug 18, 2021 8:30 pm

TGW wrote:Oh he screwed up. There's absolutely going to be a player picked in between #22 and #31 that is better than both Holliday and Todd.

This was an awful move IMO.

Of course there will be a better player than the 2 of them picked in a run of 10 picks! You're giving yourself 10 chances to be right. But, there will also be 1 or more total busts among those guys.

IOW, if you want to criticize, you have to put your cards on the table. I just said I'd have taken Jaden Springer rather than make the trade. I'm saying I think he'll be better than Holiday & Todd combined.

You want to join me on that? There's room at the table!

If not, that's ok; I might be wrong! But in that case -- who would you have picked at #22 rather than trade the pick for Holiday/Todd?
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#111 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Wed Aug 18, 2021 9:03 pm

doclinkin wrote:
payitforward wrote:if Holiday gets back to shooting the 3 at the % he posted his 2d year, while shooting the number of them he did as a rookie (& also shooting the 2 as well, & getting to the line at least as often as he did his rookie year -- yet shooting the FT% of his 2d year), & he also gets steals at the level of his 3d year (but fouls only as often as his 2d year) ... if he does all these things plus he also makes a few other improvements in his game, well then he has a shot to reach the level of an average NBA point guard. Not an average starter, mind you, just an overall average PG.

Combine all that with being a good defender, & it would make Aaron Holiday a player worth having.


I would say, given his solid 3FG and his solid defense, on this team all he has to do to improve is pass more.

And then for Isaiah Todd to become an all-star.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#112 » by thinker07 » Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:35 am

I have some general observations

Over time I have become super persuaded that PIF's theory of it almost always is better to trade down for multiple picks.

Doclinkin's notion that you should consider moves in the sequence and time context that they were made in is also super smart.

Although I doubt Ernie ever had deeply thought out plans. But it seems like Tommie does. So I think it's important to recognize that generally outside observers are having to critique the team's moves without knowing what the nuances of the plan are.

So in the sequence, did Tommie trade for AH because he wasn't sure how the SD trade would play out as doclinkin proposes? That makes sense.

We also know that when Tommie likes a guy and doesn't get him, then he covets him and waits for the chance to get him. We know that was the case with Jerome Robinson, with Mo Wagner, Ish Smith and now AH.

I would also propose that it's at least possible that when the AH part of the trade was made Tommie was focused on getting a backup point guard WITHOUT have to use one of the MLE or BAE and getting Todd at a lower guaranteed number than the #22 pick would have received.

I also think that the Wiz almost 100% certainly were able to scout Todd more extensively because he was in the GLeague. Scouting one-and-dones this past years had to be hellacious because of COVID etc. etc. Also given what the roster was expected to look like at the time of the trade (overweighted with PF's) they could more readily take a bigger gamble on upside that might take a bit to develop because there was virtually no chance a rookie PF would play this year.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#113 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:37 am

DCZards wrote:I believe Tommy & Co. see something in Holiday beyond what the 24 year old has been able to show thus far in his short career.

Maybe TS sees it in the analytics. Maybe it’s in the scouting and videos.

Tommy was right on Neto and, while he was overpaid, they were right on Capt. Hook (Lopez). I’ve got a hunch TS could be right on Holiday and his upside as well.


Right on as they say here in Hawaii. He did see something in Neto.

You already know that Aaron is j’Rue Holiday’s brother and he’s also Justin Holiday’s brother. Core values, lineage, VISION…beyond just basketball is INTRIGUING.

I wonder what kind of guy Bradley Beal would really vibe and gel with best? John Wall in them gang signs which kind of tickles me and I’m only laughing because I didn’t take it that seriously or guys like Spencer and Aaron. Probably all of the above a professional
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#114 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:38 am

I am in a super hurry and I will edit that later
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#115 » by 9 and 20 » Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:49 am

Trading the 22 for a low-risk backup PG and a project after drafting one of the lowest-risk guys in the draft at 15 tells me Sheppard is not all that comfortable swinging for the fences in the draft. Two out of the last 3 drafts, he's taken the same approach. Not really sure how the Deni pick fits in - maybe he just fell into our laps after he was projected to go a lot higher?

The more conservative approach in the draft is way different from the swing for the fences other moves - trading Wall, trading Westbrook.

Honestly, I don't hate it. Especially after the number of draft picks just outright flushed by Grunfeld. No more Jan Vesely or Javale McGee types for a while won't bother me.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#116 » by payitforward » Thu Aug 19, 2021 3:12 am

9 and 20 wrote:Trading the 22 for a low-risk backup PG and a project after drafting one of the lowest-risk guys in the draft at 15 tells me Sheppard is not all that comfortable swinging for the fences in the draft. Two out of the last 3 drafts, he's taken the same approach. Not really sure how the Deni pick fits in - maybe he just fell into our laps after he was projected to go a lot higher?

The more conservative approach in the draft is way different from the swing for the fences other moves - trading Wall, trading Westbrook.

Honestly, I don't hate it. Especially after the number of draft picks just outright flushed by Grunfeld. No more Jan Vesely or Javale McGee types for a while won't bother me.

I don't think either rui or deni was low-risk, & I can't see how Kispert is low-risk either. I.e. I don't doubt that there's a pattern there, & you've noticed it. But, I don't think that's it. I don't think it's about "swinging for the fences" or not doing so.

In fact, I'd say that Corey Kispert is kind of a high risk player -- a graduating senior with a single demonstrable skill & no exceptional athleticism poses a considerable risk. He may turn out just fine, but he ain't low risk.

Plus, Todd is definitely a case of "swinging for the fences."

However one accomplishes it, either one drafts well or one drafts badly. In 2019, Memphis simply made their pick when it came along. They did extremely well, because they evaluated talent well. In 2020, Memphis made a zillion draft-day trades: to change pick position, add picks, move up in R2, etc. They did extremely well once again. IOW, it's just a question of where the opportunities are located -- & being able to see them.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#117 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:26 am

thinker07 wrote:I have some general observations

Over time I have become super persuaded that PIF's theory of it almost always is better to trade down for multiple picks.

Doclinkin's notion that you should consider moves in the sequence and time context that they were made in is also super smart.

Although I doubt Ernie ever had deeply thought out plans. But it seems like Tommie does. So I think it's important to recognize that generally outside observers are having to critique the team's moves without knowing what the nuances of the plan are.

So in the sequence, did Tommie trade for AH because he wasn't sure how the SD trade would play out as doclinkin proposes? That makes sense.

We also know that when Tommie likes a guy and doesn't get him, then he covets him and waits for the chance to get him. We know that was the case with Jerome Robinson, with Mo Wagner, Ish Smith and now AH.

I would also propose that it's at least possible that when the AH part of the trade was made Tommie was focused on getting a backup point guard WITHOUT have to use one of the MLE or BAE and getting Todd at a lower guaranteed number than the #22 pick would have received.

I also think that the Wiz almost 100% certainly were able to scout Todd more extensively because he was in the GLeague. Scouting one-and-dones this past years had to be hellacious because of COVID etc. etc. Also given what the roster was expected to look like at the time of the trade (overweighted with PF's) they could more readily take a bigger gamble on upside that might take a bit to develop because there was virtually no chance a rookie PF would play this year.
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#118 » by Dat2U » Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:09 pm

doclinkin wrote:
payitforward wrote:As to being "disagreeable," doc -- what I am is frustrated. I'm a Wizards fan, & I'm tired of the decades & decades of overall dismal performance, broken occasionally by an unexpected surge all the way up to meh.

We just traded away a Round 1 pick. When's the last time that turned out to be a good idea? There must be a case or two out there.... But, I'd a whole lot rather have one of Isaiah Jackson, Usman Garuba, Bones Hyland, Quentin Grimes or Jaden Springer than I would Holiday plus Isaiah Todd.

Now... had we done something sensible with that #31 pick, something we could easily have done as we both know, & so wound up with, say, Miles McBride & Neemias Queta, that would be different.


When was the last time that trading a 1st round pick was a good idea? One could argue: last year when we swapped Wall +1 for Westbrook.

So basically the quibble is only if the upside of Isaiah Todd proves better than the production of McBride and Queta. Because regarding the rest:

We traded away a late first round pick to provide leverage and flexibility for the Dinwiddie sign and trade. I would trade away a #22 pick for the 1st pick in the 2nd round to get Holiday, Dinwiddie, Kuzma, KCP, Harrell and a better chance at Beal, basically.

Though yeah I have mixed feelings about re-signing Beal at the price he will command. Still, if Westbrook didn't want to be here, what better deal could we pull? If the mandate from Ted is keep Beal in the fold, what better winner could we assemble that will time to peak along with his career years.

I am with you on the 'meh' but the team currently assembled at least has a CHANCE to improve. We have depth in decent players. We have young players with upside, some entering their likely prime or what is commonly a young player's breakout years; we have tradeable contracts, a few developing assets; yes we lost a 1st round pick in the Westbrook trade, and traded back in this years draft, but we mostly shuffled a few 2nd round picks, and KCP, Harrell, even Kuzma are players who will give production equivalent to a late first. We even get a TPE from the Hutchison trade. Tommy has worked magic in the past with nothing in his pocket but TPE's and good will.

Personally, while I don't think this team as it is right now has championship potential, I am still astounded by the cojones and savvy Tommy has shown in making bold moves to improve the roster. A total tear-down. Yeah maybe his draft scouting acumen is still in doubt. We are waiting on Rui, Deni, Todd to show us. But everything else he has done outside of the draft is fairly radical, creative, smart. So I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on, for instance, Aaron Holiday. Even if he was just a placeholder to give us some negotiating power in the Dinwiddie swap.

We will see, but I am excited to watch this team. I can see line-ups and chemistry that could work. Health allowing. Wes seems an ideal coach to tinker with the possibilities. We might mess around and win a bunch of games. And if it doesn't quite work there are still opportunities to get better. For better or for worse, this is finally entirely Tommy's team. He is a gunslinger when it comes to trade moves, and the players he picked up look like a full belt of bullets to me.


Was the Wall for Westbrook deal a game changer or did it just delay the obvious and inevitable?

In my opinion, it kept the bottom from falling out (it almost did anyway when Russ was banged up). Unfortunately the bottom needed to fall out.

*We needed to rebuild and blow it up
*We needed a top 5 pick
*We needed to deal Beal before he was an expiring to obtain max value.

Now we're near the lux tax territory, praying Beal re-signs, fielding an imbalanced roster with 9 bigs and hoping everything goes right so we can make the play-in tourney once again.

Trading a 1st was not a good idea this year, or last year.
Dat2U
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#119 » by Dat2U » Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:10 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
thinker07 wrote:I have some general observations

Over time I have become super persuaded that PIF's theory of it almost always is better to trade down for multiple picks.

Doclinkin's notion that you should consider moves in the sequence and time context that they were made in is also super smart.

Although I doubt Ernie ever had deeply thought out plans. But it seems like Tommie does. So I think it's important to recognize that generally outside observers are having to critique the team's moves without knowing what the nuances of the plan are.

So in the sequence, did Tommie trade for AH because he wasn't sure how the SD trade would play out as doclinkin proposes? That makes sense.

We also know that when Tommie likes a guy and doesn't get him, then he covets him and waits for the chance to get him. We know that was the case with Jerome Robinson, with Mo Wagner, Ish Smith and now AH.

I would also propose that it's at least possible that when the AH part of the trade was made Tommie was focused on getting a backup point guard WITHOUT have to use one of the MLE or BAE and getting Todd at a lower guaranteed number than the #22 pick would have received.

I also think that the Wiz almost 100% certainly were able to scout Todd more extensively because he was in the GLeague. Scouting one-and-dones this past years had to be hellacious because of COVID etc. etc. Also given what the roster was expected to look like at the time of the trade (overweighted with PF's) they could more readily take a bigger gamble on upside that might take a bit to develop because there was virtually no chance a rookie PF would play this year.
Tommy is playing chess. I don't know what his rating is but I know he ain't playing no damn checkers


Tommy might be playing Chinese checkers. It damn sure ain't no chess tho.
Endless Loop
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Re: Wizards trade for Aaron Holiday 

Post#120 » by Endless Loop » Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:38 pm

Dat2U wrote:
Was the Wall for Westbrook deal a game changer or did it just delay the obvious and inevitable?

In my opinion, it kept the bottom from falling out (it almost did anyway when Russ was banged up). Unfortunately the bottom needed to fall out.

*We needed to rebuild and blow it up
*We needed a top 5 pick
*We needed to deal Beal before he was an expiring to obtain max value.

Now we're near the lux tax territory, praying Beal re-signs, fielding an imbalanced roster with 9 bigs and hoping everything goes right so we can make the play-in tourney once again.

Trading a 1st was not a good idea this year, or last year.


I gotta disagree. It's hard to allow the bottom to fall out when you have THREE years of $40 million + salary going to a guy with a bad leg. Instead, Tommy made two deals that resulted in-
1. A playoff appearance last year; potentially long lasting positive impact of Westbrook on the Wizards' young players; a helluva entertaining season where we got to watch a Hall of Famer at his inspiring best.
2. Now, a bunch of smaller and manageable contracts that, if the Wizards NOW want to tank, they certainly can. They can still get top value for Beal if they want to trade him.

If the Wizards had tanked last year- and kept Wall- then where would they be now? Looking at 2 more years of salary to Wall- and this time around, NO ONE willing to trade for him; plus a lousy year last year and surely an unhappy bunch of young players developing bad habits. The only plus would be they would have had a lottery pick, probably a pretty high one, but would it have been top 4? That's a big roll of the dice- no certainty at all there.

One other thing- note the Lakers didn't try to trade for Wall this offseason. They wanted Westbrook. Because Westbrook has a lot more value than Wall.

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