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Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

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Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1 » by doclinkin » Sat Aug 7, 2021 9:31 pm

Extracting this from the Offseason thread. Now that we have our roster, barring any changes, how do you see the various line-ups working. Our team is pretty deep, it makes it complicated to guess who works well with whom. Here we can scratch out combinations in a sandbox and think about how players might work together or how Wes might best use them.

Sample formats:

Line-up (type)
PG name
SG name
SF
PF
C

(Breakdown and reasoning)

Or:

Depth Chart
PG name/name/name
SG
SF
PF
C

(Breakdown and reasoning).
Remember you can use the same name in different roles if you think a player will sub in at both PG/SG or SG/SF etc.

Or

Game flow

======1st Q======|======2nd Q=====|=====3rd Q=====|=====4th Q=====
Pg name------------>name------->name----------->name-------->name-------
SG name-------------------->name---------->name----------->name----------
SF name------------>name------->name----------->name-------->name-------
PF name--------------------name--->--------->name-------------- >name-----
C name------------>name------->name----------->name-------->name--------

(Breakdown reasoning and analysis)
If you want to go nuts you can even include the minutes of each substitution


For example:

Starting line-up
PG Dwiddie
SG Beal
SF Rui
PF Kuzma
C Bryant

Two penetrate and dish players require outside shooting to open up the floor. If Rui's outside shooting from the post season isn't a mirage, we have 3 decent if not dominant outside shooters. This line prevents Bryant and Bertans from sharing the floor at the same time, and keeps us from starting 3 guys on the outside who are 6'5 and under (in a Dw/Beal/ KCP line). Length and athleticism help cover for Bryant's slower foot speed, Bryant gives a Pick and Roll partner for Dwiddie, adding also a pick and pop option. Rui/Kuz swap roles at either end, with Rui slowing down opponent outside forwards on defense, Kuz rebounding and defending the interior where possible, then on offense Rui out-quicking the opponent Bigs with his developing face-up game, and Kuz using his size advantage on smaller forwards.

Drawbacks and questions: Rui is deficient in team defense and rebounding. Bryant footslow in this regard. It would work better if Bryant had a player behind him who could help if he gets blown by in an outside pick, or who could anticipate and assist if Bryant was played only in drop coverage. Is Kuzma's team defense developing enough in this regard? Can Wes coach Rui up in these fundamental principles?
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#2 » by doclinkin » Sat Aug 7, 2021 9:36 pm

(not saying this is my starting line, just showing an example)

Feel free to be less detailed or more, however you want.

Line-ups could be things like
Offense/defense.
4th Quarter/Overtime.
Best defense.
Youth and veteran mix.
Etc.

Whatever situational line-ups you want to create and any reasoning for them.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#3 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Sat Aug 7, 2021 9:50 pm

Well, reading everyone else, I've kind of reconciled with....

G - Dimwitt
G - Beal
F - Kuzma
F - Hachimura
C - Gafford

I was hoping to see Kispert paired with Rui to cater to that Gonzaga chemistry, but with Kispert being a rookie and Avdija returning from injury I can see Kuzma winning the starting spot.

I suspect KCP will be 1st off the bench at SF, either for Kuz, or Rui with Kuz sliding over. Then later when Brad needs a rest KCP can take his spot at SG with either Kispert or Deni coming in at SF, and Bertans at PF.

Harrell should back up Gafford until Bryant is ready. Holiday will probably be the primary backup to Dimwitted, with Neto as insurance.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#4 » by doclinkin » Tue Aug 10, 2021 4:28 pm

tsvqt wrote:Am I the only one who sees the current Wizards lineup as;
Dinwiddie, Holiday, Winston
Beal, KCP, Neto
Kuzma, Deni, Respert
Rui, Bertans, Todd
Gafford, Harrell, Bryant (Until he's fully recovered in Dec, & assumes the starting role),

I see sites with KCP projected as our starting three. I see post saying Kuzma is best at the four, & Rui off the bench. I'm not one who thinks this can't be our best lineup going forward. Please elaborate as to where I'm waaaaay off base in my thinking. Thanks!


Ruzious wrote:
tsvqt wrote:Am I the only one who sees the current Wizards lineup as;
Dinwiddie, Holiday, Winston
Beal, KCP, Neto
Kuzma, Deni, Respert
Rui, Bertans, Todd
Gafford, Harrell, Bryant (Until he's fully recovered in Dec, & assumes the starting role),

I see sites with KCP projected as our starting three. I see post saying Kuzma is best at the four, & Rui off the bench. I'm not one who thinks this can't be our best lineup going forward. Please elaborate as to where I'm waaaaay off base in my thinking. Thanks!

That's also how I see it. Kispert - instead of Respert.

Interesting about KCP; I'm not sure when's the last time we had a legit 3 and D wing, and I think that's what he is. Seems that he does have a good rep for his defense. Made 41% of his 3's - becoming a 3 point shooting specialist - doesn't do much else offensively. A key player for the 19-20 NBA champions.

Ruzious wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Yeah, I guess I'll continue to be lone one to rail against the idea of Rui & Kuz starting together. I see a duplication of skills and traits that make me think it's not an ideal pairing. I don't think neither is the toughest cat mentally. Neither does the dirty work. Both offer little utility outside of scoring ability. Neither has great awareness for what's going on around them on either side of the ball. Neither will make their teammates better. Kuz definitely has strong case of tunnel vision and questionable shot selection in the past. Neither is stopper defensively or known for grabbing tough rebounds. I just don't see a clean fit with both in the lineup together.

I think the real problem is - we don't have a top-notch forward - and that's one of the reasons we should consolidate - making a 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 trade. I'd target Miles Bridges - but don't know if he's gettable. I think it's possible, because he'll be an RFA after this season. Of course, that means trading for him means that we'd have to pay him.


nate33 wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Yeah, I guess I'll continue to be lone one to rail against the idea of Rui & Kuz starting together. I see a duplication of skills and traits that make me think it's not an ideal pairing. I don't think neither is the toughest cat mentally. Neither does the dirty work. Both offer little utility outside of scoring ability. Neither has great awareness for what's going on around them on either side of the ball. Neither will make their teammates better. Kuz definitely has strong case of tunnel vision and questionable shot selection in the past. Neither is stopper defensively or known for grabbing tough rebounds. I just don't see a clean fit with both in the lineup together.

I agree that their respective skillsets are somewhat duplicative, but I wouldn't put it so harshly. I think both are pretty good on-ball defenders but are lousy off ball. Likewise, both guys are pretty useful in creating a shot when they have the ball, but they are lousy playmakers. Both guys would be better off paired with a forward that offsets their weakness - someone who has good awareness on team defense and a good off-ball game on offense, like Avdija or Kispert or Bertans.

So, yeah, Hachimura and Kuzma shouldn't start together. Start one of them with Bertans/Avdija/Kispert, and play the other one with someone else.

I'd start Bertans and Hachimura, with Avdija and Kuzma on the 2nd unit. Unless Kispert is so good from the get-go that he can supplant Bertans in the starting lineup.

The best case would be to showcase Bertans early, and the trade him for picks and cap relief.


Putting these here for a minute. I'll be back.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#5 » by nate33 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 4:34 pm

Thanks, People's Moderator!

Everyone has been talking about everything on multiple threads now, I just didn't have the energy to consolidate everything.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#6 » by 9 and 20 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 4:59 pm

They have too many forwards and not enough minutes. Back of the envelope minutes distro, trying to get everyone some minutes -

SG
-Beal - 35
-KCP - 13

SF
-KCP - 20
-Kuzma - 12
-Bertans - 8
-Deni - 8

PF
-Hachimura - 32
-Kuzma - 12
-Deni - 4

Kispert left entirely out of the lineup, despite having been drafted as a finished product, ready to provide immediate minutes.
Can't say I do. Who else gonna shoot?
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#7 » by doclinkin » Tue Aug 10, 2021 5:09 pm

I am also of the mind that we should start our best line-up, and don't think Brooks took full advantage of what we already have on the roster. We are spending significant $$ on a guy who has proven to have the best +/- effect on the team, it seems wasteful to me to squander that as though he were a bench specialist role player. Footslow perhaps, but with a solid understanding of team defense, he needs a mistake eraser behind him, with the team playing good defensive principles of funneling the attacker to the shotblocker. On offense, he opens up so much of the floor for our dribble-drive attack. That gives a baseline of:

SDw
Beal
...
Bertans
Gafford

As for player "..." hell, let them fight it out. Or base it on match-ups.

Bertans is going to play as a perimeter player anyway, a giant guard, I feel like whomever is in the "..." spot should be able to hit an outside shot, and defend at PF/SF both. In my mind I see Rui, if his 3pt shot from the playoffs was legit and sustainable, and if his effort on 1-on-1 defense is consistent, I can live with his deficiencies in team defense. Basically if he takes a step forward. If his understanding catches up with his athletic potential.

But you can make that case for any of our tweener Bigs. Basically: "If they were better they'd be starters".

I can see Kuz in that spot. He is long, is a mismatch in speed for many PFs. His defense is better in match-ups than in team concepts. He can hit an outside shot and as Dinwiddie referred to, he is good at blowing past a close-out defender. Footspeed, laterally, I think Rui has an advantage, Rui also has 2" reach in his wingspan. But Kuzma rebounds better, so Bertan's deficiencies in that regard will need some additional help.

Deni, I like Deni as a secondary playmaker coming off the bench, but of the three he understands team principles better. I think he sets a better screen, which matters for all three of SDw, Beal, and Bertans. I can see the coach relying on smart players who can input his concepts, etc. Deni needs a finsihing shot, but on this squad the best finishing shot is a lob to Gafford, or a screen for Beal/Bertans. We probably could use a savvy glue guy at forward. Yeah it would work better if Deni had a 3FG, or even a reliable jumper on a pick and pop anywhere above the elbow. Regardless, Deni is recovering from injury so it is easy to slow-play him while showcasing a guy in front of him for a consolidation trade.

KCP would be ideal for the spot, if he could guard 3/4. He's solid, understands the principles, but in SDw and Beal we are already a small backcourt. KCP guards 2/3 best. If there is any advantage in tweener Bigs it is that they are a bit quicker than the 4's and stronger than the 3's. Since we have a handful of them, we should build sets that take advantage of that and make it a mismatch in our favor.

Kispert. He's a rook, but more veteran than Rui. He already been knowing how to play the game. Smart, understands team principles at both ends. His game is a prototypical SF, able to hit from the wing and make plays on a cut to the interior. Ultimately I'd like him to take Bertans' spot. He seems like he has hidden upside in his overlooked athleticism. But his standing reach and wingspan don't do him any favors on defense, I'd want him playing with a long, strong, and active defender at the other spot.

I settle on Rui with this thought: his deficiencies are primarily in his grasp and understanding of the team game. If he has the physical advantage elsewhere, well, the rest is up to coaching. I expect he will improve under Wes, who is not only a meticulous and detail oriented teacher as a player development coach, he has solid understanding of how to use a players strengths and minimize deficiencies at both ends. In addition, he had an ideal of rolemodel to observe in how to play the low-post and interior game that is one of Rui's blank spots in the game. If Rui watched a thousand hours of film on Wes Senior, and learned how to use his leverage and strength down there, well, yeah, "if he were better he'd be a starter" and possibly live up to the best hopes and hype of those of us who are fans of his potential.

So. Let Wes coach em up and see who takes it. I like the pairing of Bertans and Gafford. And also, rehabilitate the value there, if Kispert develops swiftly, see who wants to buy high on Bertans.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#8 » by pcbothwel » Tue Aug 10, 2021 5:17 pm

9 and 20 wrote:They have too many forwards and not enough minutes.


Ehhh, Deni is 20 and fractured is ankle 4 months ago and Bryant wont be back until January. So there will be some minutes available.
Dont rule out some small/switchable lineups as well. I.E 2-5 of Kispert/KCP - Bertans - Kuz - Rui

By the time we start tightening the rotation, AT LEAST 1 of Bertans or Kuzma will be traded.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#9 » by Frichuela » Tue Aug 10, 2021 5:23 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
9 and 20 wrote:They have too many forwards and not enough minutes.


Ehhh, Deni is 20 and fractured is ankle 4 months ago and Bryant wont be back until January. So there will be some minutes available.
Dont rule out some small/switchable lineups as well. I.E 2-5 of Kispert/KCP - Bertans - Kuz - Rui

By the time we start tightening the rotation, AT LEAST 1 of Bertans or Kuzma will be traded.


This. Given Deni's injury, it makes sense to showcase both a lot and see if we can get good value for either at the trade deadline.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#10 » by dckingsfan » Tue Aug 10, 2021 5:39 pm

So, my crystal ball has it this way.

PG: Dinwiddie, Holiday, Neto
SG: Beal, KCP
SF: KCP, Bertans
PF: Hachurma, Kuzma
C: Gafford, Harrell

Avidja & Bryant will be limited at the start of the season due to their injuries and it will last longer than either of them will want.

Neto will get more play due to the minutes restriction if/when of Dinwiddie.

We will be disappointed by the lack of PT for Kispert.

Winston & Todd will get virtually no PT.

Anyway, my 1/2 cent. And another 1/4 cent - this will be a great thread throughout the season with a new coach - hope it becomes sticky at some point.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#11 » by Frichuela » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:21 pm

I think what's more likely to happen is the following for the first 20 games with Bryant out (and Deni on an unofficial minutes restriction). Expected minutes distribution in brackets:

PG: Dinwiddie (28), Holiday (12), Neto (8)
SG: Beal (34), KCP (12), Neto (2)
SF: Kuzma (24), KCP (12), Deni (12)
PF: Hachimura (28), Bertans (16), Deni (4)
C: Gafford (24), Harrell (24).

Hopefully Bertans and/or Kuzma outperform and we can sell one of them at a premium by the trade deadline!
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#12 » by NatP4 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:38 pm

Dinwiddie 30 Neto/Holiday 18
Beal 34 KCP 14
Avdija 24 KCP 10 Kispert 14
Hachimura 24 Avdija 4 Bertans 20
Gafford 28 Harrell/Bryant

Kuzma is irrelevant as of now. Kispert and Avdija need to play

Our best lineups will be KCP/Avdija/Kispert along with Dinwiddie-Beal-Bertans-Gafford.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#13 » by nate33 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:01 pm

Frichuela wrote:I think what's more likely to happen is the following for the first 20 games with Bryant out (and Deni on an unofficial minutes restriction). Expected minutes distribution in brackets:

PG: Dinwiddie (28), Holiday (12), Neto (8)
SG: Beal (34), KCP (12), Neto (2)
SF: Kuzma (24), KCP (12), Deni (12)
PF: Hachimura (28), Bertans (16), Deni (4)
C: Gafford (24), Harrell (24).

Hopefully Bertans and/or Kuzma outperform and we can sell one of them at a premium by the trade deadline!

I don't see Neto getting 10 minutes a night if everyone is healthy. He probably won't get off the bench.

Wes Jr. may have to try and implement a revolving "load management" system where at least one of our rotation forwards just gets a DNP-CD every 5 games or so. I'd rather run a 4-player rotation at the two forward spots, with the fifth guy not getting into the game, than run a 5-player rotation at the forward spots where nobody gets enough minutes to get into a rhythm.

We can do the same thing at guard, though we're probably not good enough to sit Dinwiddie or Beal all that much.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#14 » by mhd » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:11 pm

My rotation would be:

PG: Dinwiddie (32); Holliday/Neto (16)
SG: Beal (36); Kispert (12)
SF: KCP (20); Deni (16); Bertans (8)
PF: Rui (28); Kuzma (16); Bertans (4)
C: Gafford (28); Harell (20)

Ride the hot hand on game nights. I'd probably play KCP more if I could, but we need to develop Deni & Kispert. KCP is our best perimeter defender and he'll probably be playing 28 MPG at least (at the expense of the Kispert & Deni minutes)
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#15 » by Dat2U » Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:25 pm

Dinwiddie (28) Holiday (20)
Beal (34) KCP (14)
KCP (14) Bertans (20) Kispert (14)
Hachimura (28) Kuzma (20)
Gafford (28) Harrell (20)

Once Bryant & Avdija are healthy, some trades would have to be made.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#16 » by jangles86 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:46 pm

Kuzma will start for sure.

Dinwiddie/holiday/Neto
Beal/KCP
Kuzma/Avdija/Kispert
Hachi/Bertans/Todd
Bryant/Harrell/Gafford

Stacked full of 3’s, 4’s and 5’s.

There will have to be a trade of one of Bertans, Harrel or Bryant by end of the season. My hope is package up Bertans to Celtics for Smart. Have Smart backing up Dinwiddie.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#17 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:53 am

jangles86 wrote:Kuzma will start for sure.

Dinwiddie/holiday/Neto
Beal/KCP
Kuzma/Avdija/Kispert
Hachi/Bertans/Todd
Bryant/Harrell/Gafford



Yeah this is pretty much what I'm expecting as our general regular lineup & depth chart.

I can see a lot of Dimwitted, Beal, KCP together when we want uptempo.

Interested to see Beal & Dimwitt with their penetration, with Bertans & Kispert on opposite sides to kick it to, with Gafford inside ....
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#18 » by nate33 » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:57 am

Dat2U wrote:Dinwiddie (28) Holiday (20)
Beal (34) KCP (14)
KCP (14) Bertans (20) Kispert (14)
Hachimura (28) Kuzma (20)
Gafford (28) Harrell (20)

Once Bryant & Avdija are healthy, some trades would have to be made.

This is basically where I'm at too. Though I think Dinwiddie will get more like 30-32 and Holiday 16-18. Also, at small forward, I think Bertans gets more like 24 and Kispert just 10.

Ultimately, the rotation isn't too complicated while Avdija and Bryant are out. But when they get back, it'll be a problem.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#19 » by payitforward » Wed Aug 11, 2021 1:43 am

Is Anthony Gill even mentioned in any post in this thread? If so, I didn't notice.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#20 » by doclinkin » Wed Aug 11, 2021 3:56 am

nate33 wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Dinwiddie (28) Holiday (20)
Beal (34) KCP (14)
KCP (14) Bertans (20) Kispert (14)
Hachimura (28) Kuzma (20)
Gafford (28) Harrell (20)

Once Bryant & Avdija are healthy, some trades would have to be made.

This is basically where I'm at too. Though I think Dinwiddie will get more like 30-32 and Holiday 16-18. Also, at small forward, I think Bertans gets more like 24 and Kispert just 10.

Ultimately, the rotation isn't too complicated while Avdija and Bryant are out. But when they get back, it'll be a problem.


I expect Wes will experiment somewhat early in the season. Still this starting line-up lacks some outside shooting, unless Rui's shot has become reliable. Dinwiddie, Beal, Gafford all require room to operate when they attack the interior. I'd expect Kuzma or Bertans will start in that Hachimura spot to help widen the lanes.

Looking at Denver's game flows, it looks like they generally played 10, relying in a complete bench changeover late in the first and 3rd quarters. I'd expect Wes to try to create 2 balanced squads if he keeps to this method.

So I do like the look of a 2nd line that is:
Holiday
KCP
Bertans
Kuzma
Harrell

The 3 LA players familiar with eachother's game. Bertans opening the floor for Holiday, Harrell and Kuzma to drive. Harrell setting picks and screens to jar them loose.

If that is the 2nd Unit, and Wes keeps to a bench dump, then KCP is not starting. Maybe eventually:

Dimwiddie
Beal
Kispert
Hachimura
Gafford

Though we are unlikely to start a rookie early even with the possible Gonzaga chemistry. Which is why I had it this way:

Dimwiddie---Holiday
Beal--------KCP
Bertans-----Kispert
Hachimura---Kuzma
Gafford-----Harrell

Though it is probably more balanced if you flip Kuzma and Hachimura.
I think Rui is more engaged and aggressive if he is a starter.

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