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Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#141 » by CobraCommander » Tue Sep 7, 2021 7:35 pm

doclinkin wrote:
DCZards wrote:
CobraCommander wrote:What a great problem to have...fighting for minutes at all positions and knowing the other guy could legit start over you...everywhere except 2 there is parity

...except 2 and 1. I think Dinwiddie is a lock to be our best PG. But your overall point is well-taken. The talent that was lost in trading a HOFer like Russ was more than made up for it, imo, by the genuine depth that the Zards now have. Looking forward to seeing how young Wes brings all the pieces (and minutes challenge) together.


There's no competition at all at 2. Beal is it, KCP is our back-up. Maybe Dinwiddie can get minutes there.

At 1 there is competition not for the starting spot, but there is competition. I am curious who wins out for the primary 2nd PG between Neto and Holiday. I'd like to see who wins out not just to play next to Beal or back-ups but who proves a good fit next to Dinwiddie in those spot minutes.

Everywhere else there is competition not just for starting position but for back up minutes.

If I’m holiday I’m not settling for back up...dinwiddie ain’t John Wall or Kyrie
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#142 » by doclinkin » Tue Sep 7, 2021 10:35 pm

Right? And the back up spot will get real minutes anyway if the front office has a load management program to prevent fatigue on repaired tissue. Plus, yeah, we aren't deep at 2-guard so unless Kispert can play there (or I dunno, Kuzma) Dwiddie will likely see time next to a PG. Whichever of Neto/Holiday is better at the 3&D game.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#143 » by payitforward » Tue Sep 7, 2021 11:23 pm

Over his career, KCP has played the 2-guard almost exclusively. I don't see why he wouldn't soak up all of the minutes Beal doesn't play.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#144 » by penbeast0 » Tue Sep 7, 2021 11:44 pm

When they played together last year, who was generally guarding the SF, Hachimura or Bertans?
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#145 » by doclinkin » Wed Sep 8, 2021 5:30 am

payitforward wrote:Over his career, KCP has played the 2-guard almost exclusively. I don't see why he wouldn't soak up all of the minutes Beal doesn't play.


Load management and rest days. We are 3 deep at all other positions, at 2 guard we are shallow. Though KCP played 11% of the Lakers total SF minutes last year. 14% of their total SF minutes during their championship year. He may well find minutes in a 3 guard line up next to Beal and Dwiddie. It is useful to have a realistic 3rd option in case one is out for any reason. Still, we are deep elsewhere, and may be able to patch that hole with an innovative line even if either Brad or KCP is sitting for any reason.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#146 » by Ruzious » Wed Sep 8, 2021 7:09 pm

CobraCommander wrote:
doclinkin wrote:
DCZards wrote:...except 2 and 1. I think Dinwiddie is a lock to be our best PG. But your overall point is well-taken. The talent that was lost in trading a HOFer like Russ was more than made up for it, imo, by the genuine depth that the Zards now have. Looking forward to seeing how young Wes brings all the pieces (and minutes challenge) together.


There's no competition at all at 2. Beal is it, KCP is our back-up. Maybe Dinwiddie can get minutes there.

At 1 there is competition not for the starting spot, but there is competition. I am curious who wins out for the primary 2nd PG between Neto and Holiday. I'd like to see who wins out not just to play next to Beal or back-ups but who proves a good fit next to Dinwiddie in those spot minutes.

Everywhere else there is competition not just for starting position but for back up minutes.

If I’m holiday I’m not settling for back up...dinwiddie ain’t John Wall or Kyrie

Problem is... Aaron ain't Jrue.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#147 » by CobraCommander » Wed Sep 8, 2021 7:42 pm

Ruzious wrote:
CobraCommander wrote:
doclinkin wrote:
There's no competition at all at 2. Beal is it, KCP is our back-up. Maybe Dinwiddie can get minutes there.

At 1 there is competition not for the starting spot, but there is competition. I am curious who wins out for the primary 2nd PG between Neto and Holiday. I'd like to see who wins out not just to play next to Beal or back-ups but who proves a good fit next to Dinwiddie in those spot minutes.

Everywhere else there is competition not just for starting position but for back up minutes.

If I’m holiday I’m not settling for back up...dinwiddie ain’t John Wall or Kyrie

Problem is... Aaron ain't Jrue.

Aaron shouldn’t feel that way...
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#148 » by DCZards » Wed Sep 8, 2021 9:20 pm

CobraCommander wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
CobraCommander wrote:If I’m holiday I’m not settling for back up...dinwiddie ain’t John Wall or Kyrie

Problem is... Aaron ain't Jrue.

Aaron shouldn’t feel that way...

No Aaron shouldn’t feel that way but it’s the reality. I’m looking forward to seeing Holiday and what he can contribute to winning…but I don’t see him challenging Dinwiddie for the starting job.

Spencer may not be Wall or Kyrie but he’s damn good.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#149 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 9, 2021 12:22 am

Here's hoping both guys play great!

This is a big year for Aaron Holiday. Last year of his rookie contract I believe. He has to play well in order to stay in the league.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#150 » by doclinkin » Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:52 pm

Looking at shot charts for our mismatches is instructive and intriguing. It gives you a sense of how we can play, suggests sets and line-ups.

Perimeter hot zones:
Really as a shooter, Bradley Beal isn't all that great. Over his career, at any given spot on the floor he's above average at best. With a few exceptions. He has become really solid hitting a mid-range pull up. He his a solid ball from the left corner. He scores well on the interior for a guard. And as he has become more tightly guarded, he has learned how to force fouls. The league plans to deemphasize drawn fouls on 'non-basketball plays'. Shooters who kick their leg out when they are airborne to make contact with the defender, half of James Harden's repertoire, these things will be deemphasized. I don't know that this will affect Beal, I think he drives into contact and generally converts basketball plays into fouls. (Garrison Mathews' 3pt shot that travels forward 3-4 feet and racks fouls at a high rate is the sort of basketball play that would not be penalized. But Bertans has a few landing moves that draw incidental contact and will probably not rack them at as high a rate). Still. What Beal does is hit the shots you give him. He hits open shots. He is quite good at getting open, especially in that unguarded mid-range and coming off screens. Forcing fouls, hitting mid-range shots, these are useful skill in the playoffs though, and any time where Beal can be the 2nd best option on a team his shooting efficiency gets a bump. The most intriguing thing about Beal's chart is that he is average or above average from absolutely everywhere. Most players have a spot where they can hit and others where they don't. Not Beal. He may have favorites that change from year to year but pretty much he is a danger to hit a shot from basically anywhere around the arc and in.

KCP. Case in point. KCP definitely has hot zones. Though at this point in his career he pretty much only takes good shots. Refuses to take shots from anywhere beyond his comfort zone. As a role player his job is to hit open shots. Not to force anything. His hotspot is any three on the right hand side (facing the basket) or straight on.

Bertans is similar but at another order of magnitude. When he is on (or in shape) he steadily hits 3's from any position. In 2020 he hit over 60% from the right corner. For his career he is better than 50% from that spot. He's also better than average on the interior, but that is because he only attacks the basket when it is unguarded (backdoor cuts, defenders out of position, etc).

Raul Neto as you would expect is solid from most spots on the perimeter. Interestingly his hot zone has been the left side above the break. This is useful given that the others are stronger on the right half of the court. This past year he got hot from that right elbow extended as well. One area I did not expect to see was Neto's proficiency on pull-ups at the free throw line. This is basically a lay-up for him. In DC he has hit 55% from this close range jumper.

Aaron Holiday's scoring and efficiency numbers don't look great in raw data. But his shot chart is interesting if you look at his Nate McMillan years (before the team fell apart, and before injuries wracked the Pacers). He has a Bradley Beal profile in the shots he chooses. He will shoot from anywhere. His area of weakness is that he simply cannot finish on the interior. He can get to the basket, the majority of his shots are at the iron, but he's impotent once he penetrates. (Uh, sorry. That came out wrong. So to speak). Still he is solid at every spot on the perimeter. For his career his hot zones have been both corners and especially the left side from the elbow extended. In 2020 he was solid from the apex of the arc. Like Neto he has a hotspot on those free throw line pull-ups, and even at the left side elbow from long two where he hits 60% when chased off his three point spot. Flip Saunders would develop sets to deliberately create that long 2 for him if he can hit it that consistently. Nobody guards that spot, ever.

Deni Avdija was awful in the corners. Almost exactly average in the paint. But surprisingly he was really decent taking the shot at the top of the key and from 3 at the left elbow extended. 43% from that spot, albeit on low volume. This is a hopeful thing for the 2nd unit because it is one of the places that both Neto and Holiday have as hot spots as well, so if one or the other draw attention, Deni can slide free on a pick or screen, or if players are chasing Beal in the corner, Deni can pop and sink a bucket. A good sign since I think he will be one of our better secondary playmakers out of team play and motion.

Dinwiddie takes way too many shots he has no business taking. His only hot zone is the right corner. Even on the interior, he is alright for a guard, but only average league wide. His primary elite skill is forcing fouls on the dribble drive. It was a hopeful sign seeing him working his floor generalship in the pick-up games, working the pass-first option from his game. If he can learn the hot spots for his guys maybe his own shot will open up. But yeah, attack the middle, kick if they cut you off. Only take the shot as a last result. I do think he likes to dribble to set up his attack, that's alright if he is dribbling in motion sets and the real threat are the players off the ball.

Rui is [url=rui hachimura shot chart]decent from 3[/url] on both the left and right above the break. Stronger on the right. He is not good in the corners. He has 2 strange comfort zones: in the no man's land of the left baseline outside the paint. And for his career he has a decent percentage from long 2 above the free throw line center and both elbows. He's solid in the middle, above average this past year with Russ encouraging him to be aggressive.

Kuzma, man. The thing that astounded me was how remarkably average he was. Like ridiculously consistently average. He is within a percentage of ordinary at every spot on the floor. And has been his whole career.


Interior hot spots:
All of our centers.
Gafford in dc: 71.5% That is the only thing Gafford does right now, score in the paint, but he does so at an elite level. It's all he needs to do to be useful.

I expect his numbers may take a hit with Westbrook defecting to LA, the one place where Westbrook does need to be guarded is in the paint, so interior defenders would leave Gafford a run way to launch to catch a lob. If you bang and bump a high flyer they lose lift and are easier to shove out of scoring position. Too Westbrook has always been good at feeding the Bigs when his path to the hoop is blocked (Steven Adams for instance). Westbrook's inefficient gunning also gives opportunities for offensive rebounds, when you are ready for the miss it is basically a lob pass.

Still, since both Beal and Dinwiddie have been hard to stop on attacks to the basket, there is a chance for one or both to develop chemistry with him. Actually Holiday and Neto are both pretty decent at getting into the paint. Neto finishes in there at a decent rate. Holiday doesn't at all (really? a 44% chance to hit a lay-up?) but if he had a bail out option then his penetration would be a useful tool.

Montrezl in LA: 66.3% Trez is a beast in the pick and roll, and his catch radius is huge relative to his height. Long arms, magnets for hands, he can score in motion and draws a ton of attention as he is driving to the basket. The 66% on the interior doesn't tell the whole story. He is quicker than the bigs he faces so gets hacked. He is comfortable in traffic and bouncing off of contact. He stays active even when you thump him. Yeah he is smaller than most centers but he knows how to hit the continuation and finish even when his path is blocked. Like Gafford he will need a partner in the pick and roll. I think he and Dinwiddie will have fun together. The fact that Trez catches so well while on the move, even on passes thrown behind him, means he makes his PG look good when they are running action together.

Thomas Bryant. Career 75% in the paint. Not the best hands in motion, but when you get him the ball he does what he is supposed to do with it. He and Wall had great chemistry in this regard. The intriguing thing is his 43% shooting from the top of the key. 48!!!% in 2020. Small sample size, but yeah. He may not be the guy to run pick and roll since he is less efficient catching in motion or in traffic, but if you can get him the ball with nice touch he does exactly what he needs to with it.

Basically this team running traditional pick and roll sets out of action above the break looks like it could be really proficient at scoring the ball. But it will require chemistry from our primary ball handlers and their scoring targets, or all around good team play setting up our best players to score off of motion sets. I do like that our strength is in: perimeter gunning, driving to pick up fouls, and interior Bigs finishing. That is a balanced attack. I only wish with so many outside shooters that we had dominant rebounding from all of our positions, since there will be long bounces on many possessions.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#151 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Thu Sep 16, 2021 2:11 am

Here's my simplistic but in general what I'd like to see philosophically with the roster ...

Start Gafford, Rui, Kuzma, Beal, Dimwitty

6:00
In Bryant, Deni, KCP ; Out Gafford, Rui, Dimwit

Beal, KCP, Deni (Pt Fwd), Kuz, Bryant

2nd Q (12:00)
In Trez, Rui, Dimwit ; Out Bryant, Kuz, Beal

Dimwitty, KCP, Deni, Rui, Tres

18:00
In Gaff, Kuz, Beal ; Out Trez, Deni, KCP

Dimittle, Beal, Kuzma, Rui, Gafford

Same starting 5 start 3rd Q (24:00)

30:00
Out Gaff, Rui, Dimwit ; In Bryant, Deni, KCP

Bryant, Kuz, Deni, KCP, Beal

4th Q (36:00)
Out Bryant, Kuz, Beal ; In Dimwit, Rui, Trez

Trez, Rui, Deni, KCP, Dimwit

42:00 (Close Out)
Out Trez, Deni ; In Kuz, Beal

Dimwit, Beal, KCP, Kuzma, Rui

MPG:
Gafford 18, Bryant 12, Tres 12
Rui 36, Kuz 36, Deni 24
Beal 36, Dimwity 36, KCP 30

This is my preferred regular 9 man rotation ideally with health and performance.

Bertans, Kispert, Neto, Holiday are bench... Used on as need basis inserted for fouls, health, rest issues, or when/if their particular skill set is needed in specialized situations.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#152 » by dckingsfan » Sat Sep 18, 2021 6:59 pm

doclinkin wrote:Okay I will take my response here:

doclinkin wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Bertans has never played the 3. Rui has never played the 3...


Fascinating. I suppose "never" is at least equal to:

484:15 minutes of Bertans + Hachimura + center in 19/20
plus
394:51 of Beal + Bertans + Hachimura + center
and
379:12 of Russ + Bertans + Hachimura + center


Hmm. Never knew you could quantify "never". If I had to guess I would have thought it was an infinitely larger amount. (Or smaller? )

The position of Forward has changed over the years. Some of the roles remain the same: primary rebounding, interior defense, scoring inside the arc. However the PF has become required to be a mobile face-up player. Whichever non-center is on the interior more often, banging with bigs and fighting for rebounds, that is the power forward position. The player who is more perimeter oriented with occasional forays into the middle but mostly providing space by playing in the wings or running patterns like a guard, that guy is the 'small' forward.

The name is misleading. It used to be that the taller player was reliably sure to be the Power Forward, this is how the position is differentiated in stat sheets, play by play and box scores. So one could say with condescending and patronizing metaphors :clown: that a particular player has never played the small forward spot because they are taller than the other guys on court with them, and the stat nerds courtside marking in the play by play sheet inked them in that way.

But nowadays in an era of stretch forwards and even stretch 5's and 'positionless' basketball, things get a little more fuzzy. It would be more correct to say Perimeter Forward and Interior Forward. Squinting at a mislabeled stat sheet after the game, how do you know which role a player took? Well you can look at their shot charts for one thing. A guy who takes 70% of their shots from 3 is likely playing the perimeter role more often than a guy who is about 50/50 inside and out.

Now the fun thing about having a 6'10" guy who plays the perimeter is that other coaches often fall into the same trap as the stat nerds. They send their interior defender chasing after the guy running outside patterns. This opens up the interior for other shorter guys to get inside and play in the paint where their bigger brothers don't usually let them have any fun. Granted, it does help if you confuse the opponent by playing only one tall guy so they don't make the choice to leave their interior defender back at home where they may guard the inside, and live with their small forward chasing the beanpole sniper to the outside.

We happen to have a handful of tall guys who shoot from outside though. Bertans, Bryant, Kuzma, heck even Isaiah Todd and Jay Huff (if Huff somehow makes it through training camp on the squad), all are 6'10" and up. You can throw the 6'9" Avdija and 6'8" Hachimura in this category as well. All of these tall dudes have some face-up skills and can play effective basketball further outside the paint than you might traditionally expect given their height.

There will be times when it will be smart to find a role for each of them, even if it means they are sharing the floor with other tall guys who shoot from outside. At that point, eh, let the scorekeeper nerd decide what he wants to call them, which one is small and which one is power matters less to the win/loss record than if they can run the plays on the court and guard the opponent.

This is going to be fascinating to see how Wes deals with this...
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#153 » by doclinkin » Sun Sep 19, 2021 3:23 pm

Dat2U wrote: Bertans due to his spacing is the PF I'd lean getting the most minutes there, followed by Avdija due to his versatility on the defensive end.


I'd also say Avdija earns minutes due to his playmaking and familiarity in complex offensive schemes. This team has shooters and finishers but can use all the help it can get in playmaking. After Dinwiddie and maybe the Everybody Eats version of Brad we have no real ballhandling or passing. It will be useful to have guys who can feed other players or make the secondary pass.

We don't match up with teams talent for talent but if depth is an asset, might as well use it.

BBIQ bench-stars
Holiday/Neto --defense, outside shooting
KCP -- ditto. /Kispert? heads up cuts to the lane, catch and shoot game
Avdija -- secondary passing, extra ballhandler in transition, smart play out of screening action/motion
Bertans -- floor stretching Big, catch and shoot sniper
Harrell -- pick and roll finisher/ passing off the short roll

Yes that team gets smoked on defense. Holiday KCP Avdija can play solid team D, Neto is a scrappy harasser, but Bertans/Harrell are a hole in the middle. Maybe you can deny penetration or interior passing, but there's no rebounding even if you force a miss.

On offense though this is a small ball line-up that also lets Trez get loose in pick and roll game.

Sub in Beal or Dinwiddie at either spot and you magnify the playmaking ability. Sub Gafford and you add rearline defense.

SD26/Holiday/Neto
KCP/Beal/Kispert
Avdija
Bertans/Kuz
Gafford/Harrell

A smart tactician can utilize the savvy of this group to set each other up for high percentage plays on every trip down the floor. Outsmart, out play, outshoot more talented opponents.

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