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Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1601 » by nate33 » Fri Mar 3, 2023 2:36 pm

doclinkin wrote:I think its an audition for the back-up at Nunn's position, since he is expiring in the offseason. This is Tommy being Tommy though. I think we will probably see a series of 10-day players from now through the end of the season since hyperactive Tommy has a slot to play with.

Yeah, Doc's post makes good sense. This is an audition, a training camp in March. He is testing out Jackson, Huff, and Bouyea to see if any of them have what it takes to land a vet-minimum contract next year and round out the end of our bench.

Also, perhaps Wright is dinged up a bit and they need another guy to run PG in practice.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1602 » by Dat2U » Sat Mar 4, 2023 7:04 pm

nate33 wrote:
doclinkin wrote:I think its an audition for the back-up at Nunn's position, since he is expiring in the offseason. This is Tommy being Tommy though. I think we will probably see a series of 10-day players from now through the end of the season since hyperactive Tommy has a slot to play with.

Yeah, Doc's post makes good sense. This is an audition, a training camp in March. He is testing out Jackson, Huff, and Bouyea to see if any of them have what it takes to land a vet-minimum contract next year and round out the end of our bench.

Also, perhaps Wright is dinged up a bit and they need another guy to run PG in practice.


They could have just signed Dunn but maybe they view Bouyea as more of scorer which is needed. But I thought Dunn was certainly a playable rotation guy.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1603 » by NatP4 » Mon Mar 6, 2023 3:22 am

I sort of like this team if they just let Kuzma walk and end up keeping the pick. Cooks seems like a nice contributing rotation player at the 4. Nunn walks as well and Johnny Davis (who is looking really good in the g-league) jumps in as the backup 2.

I’m 100% trading down with Indiana or someone and picking Cissoko, Coulibaly and Podziemski.

Look to trade Morris in the off-season.

Wright Goodwin
Beal Davis Podziemski
Kispert Avdija Cissoko
Cooks Coulibaly
Porzingis Gafford
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1604 » by Frichuela » Fri Mar 10, 2023 3:45 pm

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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1605 » by nate33 » Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:10 pm

Frichuela wrote:Pain…the life of the Wizards fan…

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I often dream about what could have been if we had ended up drafting Haliburton and including a future 1st in the Gafford trade so that we could also get Markkanen.

Let's say, for argument's sake, the the Chicago trade was Troy Brown, and our 2027 1st for Markkanen and Gafford.

We then go on to make the Westbrook for KCP, Kuzma, Dinwiddie trade and then trade Dinwiddie and Bertans for Porzingis.

Then in Summer 2022, wekeep KCP because we don't need a PG. We sign Wright, draft Kispert, and roll with:

PG Haliburton/Wright
SG Beal/KCP
SF KCP/Kispert
PF Markkanen/Kuzma/Hachimura
C Porzingis/Gafford

At the deadline, we trade Hachimura for 2nd round picks, and trade Kuzma for a younger, defensively focused 3&D wing like Dorian Finney-Smith. (I think Brooklyn makes that deal to address their glut of catch-and-shoot 3's when they need a shot-creating 4.)

Our lineup next year would be:

PG Haliburton/Wright
SG Beal/KCP
SF DFS/Kispert
PF Markkanen/Porzingis
C Porzingis/Gafford

:o
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1606 » by payitforward » Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:29 pm

I don't recall anyone suggesting we target Markkanen at the time of the trade that got us Gafford. But you may have. Markkanen hadn't shown very much in his first 2.5 seasons. I certainly didn't see him as a target. Truth be told, this is his first genuinely good season. I wonder what made the difference for him.

Anyway, even w/o that... just taking Haliburton instead of Deni would have been great.
Then again, Tyrese Haliburton is pretty clearly the best player to come out of the 2020 draft (w/ the possible exception of Lamelo). So... duh... obviously it would have been great to pick him!

Worse yet, think of this: if he & Lamelo are the two best, then the obvious 3d best player in that draft was Desmond Bane, who went #30. Boston offered us that pick for Bertans, & we'd turned it down!

It gets worse. We basically gave away our #37 pick that year. Imagine if we'd traded it to the Kings for their #43 & 52 -- & taken Isaiah Joe (who is killing it this year) & Kenyon Martin Jr. (an absolutely terrific player).

Haliburton, Bane, Joe & KMart Jr. Not bad....

Then turn the 2021 #31 into #34 & 36. Take Herb Jones &... how about Austin Reaves?

A pointless exercise no doubt... I can see Zards rolling his eyes !! :)
edit: & he's no doubt right to do so. Spilt milk goes sour in a hurry!
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1607 » by long suffrin' boulez fan » Sat Mar 11, 2023 2:15 am

Why is Monte in the game?
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1608 » by Frichuela » Sat Mar 11, 2023 2:39 am

long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:Why is Monte in the game?


Cause Wes is desperate..

At this junction gotta root for the Bulls and Pacers to overtake us in the standings and have the highest possible draft pick. And maybe that also leads to both Tommy and Wes getting the boot.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1609 » by payitforward » Sat Mar 11, 2023 3:18 am

I agree with your conclusion -- hope for the highest spot in the draft.

But, why does that entail ragging on Monte Morris, I wonder? Or, maybe, I mean to ask a different question: since it seems completely obvious to me from the numbers that Monte Morris is quite a good NBA point guard, will you please advise me...

...how does either of you decide who is a good player & who is not? Not, I guess, from the numbers -- & if not, then... how?

IOW, given that Monte is shooting over 40% on 3 pointers, & he's shooting over 80% from the line, plus he's way above average in assists, not to mention that he's way better than average in limiting turnovers. & that he doesn't commit dumb fouls.... given all that, what's the matter with Monte Morris?

I mean, if I look at the range of numbers posted by other PGs in the league, Monte looks quite good. For example, overall he looks to be a bit better than Markelle Fultz. Not hugely better, but pretty clearly a bit better.

Do you rate him below Fultz for some reason?
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1610 » by dckingsfan » Sun Mar 12, 2023 3:46 pm

Frichuela wrote:
long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:Why is Monte in the game?

Cause Wes is desperate...

He seems to be moving fine? I guess we will see if they keep his minutes down to manage the injury. Given the depth at guard, I would also like to see him fully heal first - back injuries are no joke.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1611 » by NatP4 » Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:35 pm

payitforward wrote:I agree with your conclusion -- hope for the highest spot in the draft.

But, why does that entail ragging on Monte Morris, I wonder? Or, maybe, I mean to ask a different question: since it seems completely obvious to me from the numbers that Monte Morris is quite a good NBA point guard, will you please advise me...

...how does either of you decide who is a good player & who is not? Not, I guess, from the numbers -- & if not, then... how?

IOW, given that Monte is shooting over 40% on 3 pointers, & he's shooting over 80% from the line, plus he's way above average in assists, not to mention that he's way better than average in limiting turnovers. & that he doesn't commit dumb fouls.... given all that, what's the matter with Monte Morris?

I mean, if I look at the range of numbers posted by other PGs in the league, Monte looks quite good. For example, overall he looks to be a bit better than Markelle Fultz. Not hugely better, but pretty clearly a bit better.

Do you rate him below Fultz for some reason?


It’s simple. Morris is a below average defender, and a game manager on offense. He doesn’t breakdown the defense or put significant pressure on teams to help. He just keeps the ball moving, gets the team into sets, and takes open shots.

He’s a solid role player, nothing more. No, there still is no basic counting stat to show that he is not an impactful player on defense.

Every single person on this board has this exact same view on Morris. He’s an average to slightly above average PG.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1612 » by payitforward » Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:35 pm

NatP4 wrote:
payitforward wrote:... why ...ragging on Monte Morris... it seems completely obvious to me from the numbers that Monte Morris is quite a good NBA point guard.... For example, overall he looks to be a bit better than Markelle Fultz....

It’s simple. Morris is a below average defender, and a game manager on offense. He doesn’t breakdown the defense or put significant pressure on teams to help. He just keeps the ball moving, gets the team into sets, and takes open shots.

He’s a solid role player, nothing more. No, there still is no basic counting stat to show that he is not an impactful player on defense....

Do you have any "counting stat" to show what kind of a problem he is on defense?

Do you think it's trivial to shoot over 40% on threes?
Above 80% from the line?
Post a 5.5 to 1 Assist to Turnover ratio?

Show me a couple of "solid role player" types who post those numbers, why don't you?

NatP4 wrote:Every single person on this board has this exact same view on Morris. He’s an average to slightly above average PG.

"Every single person on this board" includes a bunch of "persons" who think Rui Hachimura is a really good player & Kyle Kuzma is outstanding.

Also included among those "persons" is someone (you) who is absolutely positive that Devon Dotson is a rotation NBA player based on zero evidence.

Not to mention that even if "slightly above average" were accurate, that would make him a lock to start on a team with our talent level.

This is not something worth having some big argument over. I asked a question -- why the ragging on Morris when he obviously puts up terrific numbers. Your answer isn't one, it's just your opinion. No problem.

But, the question remains. Why the ragging on Morris when he's obviously quite a good player. Even though he doesn't "bend the defense." A lot of really good players don't do that.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1613 » by NatP4 » Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:51 pm

The ragging on Morris is misdirected. It’s frustration with the coach for playing him way too much after he’s missed a solid amount of time and is clearly not ready to just jump in and play heavy minutes.

You also combine that with the fact that his backup is a significantly better player, that has been a seriously undervalued for his entire career. Goodwin also showed well in the time Morris missed.

I think a fair amount of people think that 30ish minutes of Wright 18 backup minutes of Goodwin, is a better combination than 30 minutes of Morris and 18 of Wright. Those people are not wrong even though Morris is a solid and easy to root for player.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1614 » by payitforward » Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:43 pm

NatP4 wrote:The ragging on Morris is misdirected. It’s frustration with the coach for playing him way too much after he’s missed a solid amount of time and is clearly not ready to just jump in and play heavy minutes.

You also combine that with the fact that his backup is a significantly better player, that has been a seriously undervalued for his entire career. Goodwin also showed well in the time Morris missed.

I think a fair amount of people think that 30ish minutes of Wright 18 backup minutes of Goodwin, is a better combination than 30 minutes of Morris and 18 of Wright. Those people are not wrong even though Morris is a solid and easy to root for player.

A very thoughtful response, Nat -- thanks!

You are certainly correct that Wright "has been seriously undervalued his entire career." TBH, all things considered, Wright is probably the best player on our entire roster. OTOH, if you look at Delon's career, he's played as much at the 2 as at the 1.

When the season began I wrote that I hoped he, Beal & Morris would essentially eat up all the guard minutes (i.e. 30 min a night for each of them). The emergence of Jordan Goodwin made that impossible -- Goodwin deserves minutes.

&, really, it was Delon's injury that opened those minutes for him. Then Nunn came along. B/c he had a killer first game for us, he got minutes for a while Overall, he's just noise in the system.

In any case, given the speed with which we are sliding downhill, none of this matters much.
Truth is, there are only 2 guys on our 15-man regular roster that I really think are worth keeping -- Goodwin & Gafford.

Beal is a dragsail -- one of the dumbest decisions in a history of dumb decisions to re-sign him for the $$ & years we did.
Wright is too old to be of use in the future when, just maybe, we could be good again.
Porzingis is great when he's great & fun to watch. But, despite what fans think, he actually isn't helping us win.
Deni & Kispert have their best years in front of them, so I guess it's worth playing out the string; & every team needs some solid role players.
Kuzma... oh come on....

Point is obvious, I guess: there's no "mid-build" going on here, whatever that means anyway.

Hard to find a big enough broom to sweep the joint out, I guess -- given that it has grab everybody from the lowest-ranking flunky right up to the accidental billionaire who owns the place.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1615 » by nate33 » Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:54 pm

payitforward wrote:Porzingis is great when he's great & fun to watch. But, despite what fans think, he actually isn't helping us win.

Porzingis is the best player on the team by a mile. It's not even close. He is hyper efficient on heavy volume on offense, and he is the only 2-way player on the team. Every summary statistic out there, whether based on on/off regressions or box scores, has him as a top 25 player. He is absolutely helping us win.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1616 » by payitforward » Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:57 am

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:Porzingis is great when he's great & fun to watch. But, despite what fans think, he actually isn't helping us win.

Porzingis is the best player on the team by a mile. It's not even close. He is hyper efficient on heavy volume on offense, and he is the only 2-way player on the team. Every summary statistic out there, whether based on on/off regressions or box scores, has him as a top 25 player. He is absolutely helping us win.

All good points, & I could have been a little clearer.

You can't be helping a team win if the team isn't winning, & we aren't winning. We're 31-37 & project to win 37 or maybe 38 games.
Of course, we might do a bit better than that... or a bit worse.

Still, through 83% of the season, that's where we are -- hence it's a pretty reliable measure of how good our team is as a whole. &, how good a team we are amounts to the same thing as how good our players are (even though Wizards fans, like the fans of all teams in all sports, no doubt think their players are better than, in reality, they are).

After 68 games last year, our record was 29-39. We went on to win 35 games.
So, it's fair to say that we're a little bit better than we were last year.

Last year at this point we were at .426. This year it's .456.
That's how much better this team is than last year's team. Percentage-wise, we are 3% better. Now... 3% is within a margin of error in a subject area of this kind, wouldn't you say?

In short, there's really not a lot of reason to say we've improved as a team. Not a lot at all.

& what have been the biggest changes since last year, nate? Well, KCP is gone, while Morris, Wright & Barton were here. But, of course, the biggest changes from last year were actually put in place at the deadline last year: Dinwiddie, Bertans & Harrell out, Porzingis in.

& you see our record.
Hence, when I say KP isn't helping us win, in fact I am doing no more than repeating what you said in the little exchange about the WP48 roll up -- which was, essentially, if I remember right (& I will check as soon as I submit this post) this:

nate33 wrote:...The best player IS the player who helps a team win the most. By what other metric are we calling a guy a good player?

Yep, that is where the rubber meets the road. &, given our record, I'd say we need a new set of tires!

edit: to put it another way -- dumping Spence, Davis, KCP & Harrell for Porzingis, Wright & Morris* was supposed to make us a better team. Our record is the result.

* along with letting go of Bryant & Ish & Neto & Holiday.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1617 » by NatP4 » Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:15 am

It’s also possible that players are misused, which is absolutely part of what is wrong with this team. They certainly lack talent, but Kuzma and Beal are being put into roles that are well above their respective talent levels.

In my opinion, Porzingis is a top 30 player that is going to age very well. I think he’s worth building around, and didn’t really become that player until coming to Washington. I hope they re-sign him to a 4 year deal for his age 28/29/30/31 seasons. That would be great value.

If I was to evaluate this roster, I would only be interested in keeping Porzingis, Gafford, Goodwin, Jackson, Davis, Kispert, and Avdija. It should’ve been a total firesale of Morris, Wright, Kuzma, and Beal at the deadline. Load up on draft picks. REBUILD
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1618 » by nate33 » Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:23 pm

NatP4 wrote:It’s also possible that players are misused, which is absolutely part of what is wrong with this team. They certainly lack talent, but Kuzma and Beal are being put into roles that are well above their respective talent levels.

In my opinion, Porzingis is a top 30 player that is going to age very well. I think he’s worth building around, and didn’t really become that player until coming to Washington. I hope they re-sign him to a 4 year deal for his age 28/29/30/31 seasons. That would be great value.

If I was to evaluate this roster, I would only be interested in keeping Porzingis, Gafford, Goodwin, Jackson, Davis, Kispert, and Avdija. It should’ve been a total firesale of Morris, Wright, Kuzma, and Beal at the deadline. Load up on draft picks. REBUILD

Those are the same guys I'd be interested in keeping.

I'd be open-minded to trading Porzingis as well, given his age, but I like him a lot and would also be willing to keep him too. (Clearly, Porzingis alone isn't good enough to prevent us from tanking.)
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1619 » by Dat2U » Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:56 pm

Looking forward to that KP/Wemby frontline dominating the league next year.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#1620 » by payitforward » Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:43 pm

Dat2U wrote:Looking forward to that KP/Wemby frontline dominating the league next year.

From your lips to God's ear!! :)
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