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Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#201 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:25 am

Davis Bertans on popcornmachine.net stats looks very good.

Popcornmachine.net also shows the Wizards' superior bench won the game. The only Indy starter that was a net negative was Justin Holiday. Harrell and Bertans and even Kispert had effective floor time.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#202 » by dckingsfan » Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:22 pm

doclinkin wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Pretty much. Sure, you can insert them together in a specific situation but playing them together is not a strategy I'd employ because none of them is comfortable at all on the perimeter defensively.

Yep, it would be situational.

I think they (Harrell/Gafford) were on the floor in Indy game.

They were not.

http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20211022&game=INDWAS

Awesome link! Very helpful...
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#203 » by doclinkin » Mon Oct 25, 2021 3:09 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20211022&game=INDWAS

Awesome link! Very helpful...


Yeah that's what I based my clunky analog gameflow on:

doclinkin wrote:
doclinkin wrote:Game flow

======1st Q======|======2nd Q=====|=====3rd Q=====|=====4th Q=====
Pg name------------>name------->name----------->name-------->name-------
SG name-------------------->name---------->name----------->name----------
SF name------------>name------->name----------->name-------->name-------
PF name--------------------name--->--------->name-------------- >name-----
C name------------>name------->name----------->name-------->name--------




10 man rotation. Game flow.

======1st Q======|======2nd Q=====|=====3rd Q=====|=====4th Q=====
Din-------------Neto------->Beal-Din-------->Din---------Neto/Beal---Din----------
Beal-----------KCP--------------Beal-------->Beal--------KCP--------Beal--------
Bertans------Avdija-------------KCP/Avdija---->Ber/Avdija---------KCP-------
Kuz------------Rui------------->Kuz---->Kuz/Rui----Kuz/Avdija--------Kuz---------
Gafford-------Trez------>Gaff----Trez------>Gafford------Trez---------Gafford---



Popcornmachine is awesome to see the +/- of various line-ups. Who played well with which other players.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#204 » by doclinkin » Tue Oct 26, 2021 4:50 am

doclinkin wrote:
WallToWall wrote:Refs called it physical, giving the edge to the Nets. Most other NBA games have not been this physical.


Seems to me they are. Foul totals are down, not because teams are playing softer, but because refs are simply not calling anything. Which does not bode well of Dinwiddie and Beal who have made their living getting to the line. If you can bump and hack a ballhandler then we will see many more turnovers and missed shots. You can play shooters tighter since they can't blow past you if you are able to impede their progress and bump them. More misses, more need for rebounds and bigs who can get easy baskets down low. We will trend back towards bully ball. We would be fine with our trio of centers, but our forwards are finesse oriented. And we need tall passers or skilled set-up men to feed the post. Players like Dame and Stef will be fine since a foul in traffic is more easily hidden than a foul 30 feet from the basket. But otherwise we will see a trend away from undersized combo guards and towards big guards who can take contact and drive through it to finish.

I don't think this was what the league intended, but yeah, the pendulum will swing.


The rules changes were enacted to prevent egregious examples of offensive players initiating contact to draw fouls. However basketball is played in fast forward. You can't judge in a split-second who initiated the contact without benefit of slow-motion, zoom cameras, instant replay. So instead the refs have expanded their definition of marginal contact. More bumping and hacking will be allowed. This encourages defenders play closer to the opponent to crowd their space which means we will see shooting percentages fall from outside since players can no longer clear space for themselves with a rip-through move. Basically we are back to hand-checking offensive players since refs can't distinguish who is reaching in and who is ripping through. You can't see if a guy is hooking a defender or vice versa.

A finesse team like ours is not built for that environment. Passes become more difficult when you can crowd the ball handler, so off ball motion is at less of a premium. It looks like we are trying to play hero ball, but it simply is that the advantage has swung toward defense so players can't get separation like they used to. Offenses that rely on dribble hand offs, pick and rolls, screens, they will score. These are premium skills now. For jumpshooters, your step-back and fadeaway shots are key, even if they are lower percentage shots for most shooters. The dribble drive era looks like it is over, and three point percentages are likely to fall. Teams who rebound and score in the paint will tend to do well. Well, hell. We have a few, but it will be tricky to deliver the ball to them. Bigs who can handle in traffic and finish through contact will still feast.

Ted being Ted, we will surely still offer Beal a gimundo contract, even if he has an off year while he adjusts, but the market for his services will be lower. Our return in picks would be less if he chooses to jump with a sign and trade. He's not going to be scoring in that 30+ range, he wasn't anyway as soon as we added more talent. The problem is if there is no room to pass, and if his teammates can't score either then those assist numbers won't make up the difference. And in a contract year he looks like he is starting to gun a bit to try to jumpstart his offense. At no point should any player be 6-for-20 or whatever he ended up with. If he can take the contact and not look for the foul and still score, then he will earn back that money, but as for right now, stop begging the refs for calls. They are not going to listen. Score anyway. Score through contact. Euro-step to totally avoid a defender. I dunno. We may adjust, we may figure it out, maybe our team starts defending closer, risking fouls. Still, I expect falling shooting %'s which will lead to lower point totals and uglier games. And I would expect, declining audiences.

It's still basketball. Players and coaches and teams will adjust. But I get the feeling the offensive upswing of the no-hand check small ball era is over. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted. Thanks a lot James Harden. That's why we can't have nice things.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#205 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:45 am

Jalen Smith.

I hope Washington trades for him. Big who can rebound.

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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#206 » by leswizards » Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:55 pm

Bryant, Gafford and Harrell are 3 of the Wizards best players. They should be playing as many minutes as possible. If you restrict them to only playing center, you can’t get them more than 16 mpg per person when they are all healthy. If the Wizards are going to only play them at center, they should trade at least one of them if not 2.

Both Gafford and Harrell have played significant minutes at pf in the past. Additionally, every team in the nba that plays the Wizards will play there 2nd best (or worse) pf at least 18 mpg. Additionally, while some teams have dominant pfs like Kevin Durant who will dominate Gafford and Harrell (so what those power forwards will also dominate Rui, Davis and Kyle), most teams have starting pfs that Harrell and Gafford can handle. Finally, Gafford and Harrell are much more productive than Rui, Davis, and Kyle.

Unfortunately, Wes, jr appears to agree with the people who don’t want Gafford or Harrell playing pf.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#207 » by NatP4 » Tue Oct 26, 2021 5:29 pm

It simply does not work. Playing any of those 3 at PF would be Scott Brooks level stupid. It’s a ridiculous idea. None of them can slide their feet and defend on the perimeter, none of them are comfortable handling the ball or spacing the floor out to the 3pt line. Bryant and Harrell are pretty immobile even for a centers.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#208 » by nate33 » Tue Oct 26, 2021 5:47 pm

leswizards wrote:Both Gafford and Harrell have played significant minutes at pf in the past.

False.

I cannot find a single 5-man lineup on basketball reference with Gafford sharing the court with either Wendell Carter or Cristiano Felício. If Gafford played any minutes at PF, it was less than 15 total minutes in a season.

Harrell played 121 minutes at PF alongside Capela in his rookie season in 2015-16. There is no lineup in basketball reference featuring Harrell sharing the court with another center at any other time in his career, except last season when he shared time with Anthony Davis. And Anthony Davis would have been guarding PF's during those minutes.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#209 » by pancakes3 » Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:49 am

There's a way to do it, it just requires creativity, practice, and depends on the matchup. It just wouldn't be an optimal or even good use of minutes because we've got stretch bigs like Rui, Kuzma, and Bertans that also need minutes at PF.

As much as I like TB, he makes the most sense to use as trade bait, and will get us the most net value. I'm ok with putting Rui, Kuzma, and Bertans on the trading block as well.

Getting back a starting-caliber SF would be huge. Deandre Hunter, Miles Bridges, Ingram, et al.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#210 » by payitforward » Wed Oct 27, 2021 2:34 am

nate33 wrote:
leswizards wrote:Both Gafford and Harrell have played significant minutes at pf in the past.

False.

...Harrell played 121 minutes at PF alongside Capela in his rookie season in 2015-16. There is no lineup in basketball reference featuring Harrell sharing the court with another center at any other time in his career, except last season when he shared time with Anthony Davis. And Anthony Davis would have been guarding PF's during those minutes.

I don't think this is true, nate. At the same time, it's not particularly important, so I'd rather avoid a dispute. But, as a rookie, I think Harrell played almost exlusively the 4. As to playing with Capela -- Capela wasn't the starter at 5. Howard was. Between the 2 of them they played over 3750 minutes. Some guy named Chuck Hayes played a few minutes at the 5 as well. & Motiejunas split time between 4 & 5. OTOH, without Harrell's minutes there aren't enough 4s recorded.

The following year ditto -- I believe most of Harrell's minutes were at the 4.

With the Clippers in 2017-8, Jordan, Willie Reed & Boban accounted for over 3000 minutes at the 5. Griffin played some small ball center as well I believe.

Thereafter, OTOH, you are right -- the last 3 seasons he was exclusively a Center.

As to the Lakers last year, I think AD actually played at least half his minutes at the 4 -- Harrell, Drummond, Gasol & Jones ate up most of the minutes at Center.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#211 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:49 am

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:
leswizards wrote:Both Gafford and Harrell have played significant minutes at pf in the past.

False.

...Harrell played 121 minutes at PF alongside Capela in his rookie season in 2015-16. There is no lineup in basketball reference featuring Harrell sharing the court with another center at any other time in his career, except last season when he shared time with Anthony Davis. And Anthony Davis would have been guarding PF's during those minutes.

I don't think this is true, nate. At the same time, it's not particularly important, so I'd rather avoid a dispute. But, as a rookie, I think Harrell played almost exlusively the 4. As to playing with Capela -- Capela wasn't the starter at 5. Howard was. Between the 2 of them they played over 3750 minutes. Some guy named Chuck Hayes played a few minutes at the 5 as well. & Motiejunas split time between 4 & 5. OTOH, without Harrell's minutes there aren't enough 4s recorded.

The following year ditto -- I believe most of Harrell's minutes were at the 4.

With the Clippers in 2017-8, Jordan, Willie Reed & Boban accounted for over 3000 minutes at the 5. Griffin played some small ball center as well I believe.

Thereafter, OTOH, you are right -- the last 3 seasons he was exclusively a Center.

As to the Lakers last year, I think AD actually played at least half his minutes at the 4 -- Harrell, Drummond, Gasol & Jones ate up most of the minutes at Center.


I fuse together the games of Chuck Hughes and PJ Tucker. They played similarly IMO.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#212 » by leswizards » Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:00 pm

NatP4 wrote:Playing any of those 3 at PF would be Scott Brooks level stupid. It’s a ridiculous idea.

Scott Brooks played small pgs who were average at best at sg. I am suggesting playing 2 highly productive players a limited number of minutes at pf against back up pfs, to create extra minutes for 3 of the Wizards best players, or trade 1 or more of those 3 players. I don’t think they are the same. But whatever, basketball reference claims that 10% of Harrell’s minutes, and 8% of Gafford’s minutes have been at pf, but I am sure that you have watched every minute those 2 players have played, and can categorically state that they have never played that position, nor will they ever have a single productive minute in their life at that position.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#213 » by nate33 » Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:26 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:
leswizards wrote:Both Gafford and Harrell have played significant minutes at pf in the past.

False.

...Harrell played 121 minutes at PF alongside Capela in his rookie season in 2015-16. There is no lineup in basketball reference featuring Harrell sharing the court with another center at any other time in his career, except last season when he shared time with Anthony Davis. And Anthony Davis would have been guarding PF's during those minutes.

I don't think this is true, nate. At the same time, it's not particularly important, so I'd rather avoid a dispute. But, as a rookie, I think Harrell played almost exlusively the 4. As to playing with Capela -- Capela wasn't the starter at 5. Howard was. Between the 2 of them they played over 3750 minutes. Some guy named Chuck Hayes played a few minutes at the 5 as well. & Motiejunas split time between 4 & 5. OTOH, without Harrell's minutes there aren't enough 4s recorded.

The following year ditto -- I believe most of Harrell's minutes were at the 4.

With the Clippers in 2017-8, Jordan, Willie Reed & Boban accounted for over 3000 minutes at the 5. Griffin played some small ball center as well I believe.

Thereafter, OTOH, you are right -- the last 3 seasons he was exclusively a Center.

As to the Lakers last year, I think AD actually played at least half his minutes at the 4 -- Harrell, Drummond, Gasol & Jones ate up most of the minutes at Center.

My bad on his rookie year. I didn't notice the minutes he played with Howard. He only played 364 total minutes in his rookie year, though.

I don't see him playing any minutes at center in the 2016-2017 lineups data at basketball reference. Capela, Nene and Onuaku combined to play 2800 minutes, leaving almost 2000 minutes for Harrell at the position. Harrell only played 1064 minutes.

Harrell played a total of 60 minutes alongside DeAndre Jordan in the 5-man lineups shown in 2017-2018. That's only showing the top 10 most used 5-man lineups so perhaps he played a bit more, but we know he played less than 202 total minutes alongside DeAndre Jordan because Jordan doesn't show up in any of the top 10 2-man combinations. Jordan played 2424 minutes, Reed played 419 and Boban played 166. That leaves 1900+ minutes at center, enough to soak up all of Harrell's 1293 minutes.

There are no player combinations at basketball reference indicating that he has played power forward at any time since 2018, unless you count the minutes alongside Davis.

So if you want to count a handful of his 364 rookie minutes, plus about 60-100 minutes at PF in 2017-18, you can say that he has "significant minutes" at PF. But a grand total of 300 or so PF minutes 4-6 years ago, out his 8000 career minutes, doesn't strike me as being an indicator that he can effectively play PF.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#214 » by dckingsfan » Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:59 pm

Can we sticky this most important thread?
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#215 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Wed Oct 27, 2021 6:35 pm

leswizards wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Playing any of those 3 at PF would be Scott Brooks level stupid. It’s a ridiculous idea.

Scott Brooks played small pgs who were average at best at sg. I am suggesting playing 2 highly productive players a limited number of minutes at pf against back up pfs, to create extra minutes for 3 of the Wizards best players, or trade 1 or more of those 3 players. I don’t think they are the same. But whatever, basketball reference claims that 10% of Harrell’s minutes, and 8% of Gafford’s minutes have been at pf, but I am sure that you have watched every minute those 2 players have played, and can categorically state that they have never played that position, nor will they ever have a single productive minute in their life at that position.
You are so right on this it's not even worth arguing as far as I'm concerned.

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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#216 » by leswizards » Thu Oct 28, 2021 12:16 am

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
leswizards wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Playing any of those 3 at PF would be Scott Brooks level stupid. It’s a ridiculous idea.

Scott Brooks played small pgs who were average at best at sg. I am suggesting playing 2 highly productive players a limited number of minutes at pf against back up pfs, to create extra minutes for 3 of the Wizards best players, or trade 1 or more of those 3 players. I don’t think they are the same. But whatever, basketball reference claims that 10% of Harrell’s minutes, and 8% of Gafford’s minutes have been at pf, but I am sure that you have watched every minute those 2 players have played, and can categorically state that they have never played that position, nor will they ever have a single productive minute in their life at that position.
You are so right on this it's not even worth arguing as far as I'm concerned.

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I realize that this is nothing more than a single anecdote, and proves nothing, but I can’t help pointing out that at the 6 minute mark of tonight’s game, Al Horford (the Celtics starting pf) moved over to center, and Harrell guarded him for a few minutes.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#217 » by 9 and 20 » Thu Oct 28, 2021 9:49 am

With Gafford out, does Kuzma play some backup C? That leaves the forward position manned by KCP and three of our three rhythm-challenged guys - Deni, Bertans, and Kispert. Todd is not ready for anything but garbage time minutes.

The depth we had going into the season is definitely being put to the test. Holiday played OK last night but hopefully Neto comes back soon to help make up for Beal's terribleness so far this year.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#218 » by doclinkin » Thu Oct 28, 2021 12:50 pm

9 and 20 wrote:With Gafford out, does Kuzma play some backup C? That leaves the forward position manned by KCP and three of our three rhythm-challenged guys - Deni, Bertans, and Kispert. Todd is not ready for anything but garbage time minutes.

The depth we had going into the season is definitely being put to the test. Holiday played OK last night but hopefully Neto comes back soon to help make up for Beal's terribleness so far this year.


Call up Jaime Echinque? Though I think he is the only center on the GoGo.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#219 » by Frichuela » Thu Oct 28, 2021 1:32 pm

doclinkin wrote:
9 and 20 wrote:With Gafford out, does Kuzma play some backup C? That leaves the forward position manned by KCP and three of our three rhythm-challenged guys - Deni, Bertans, and Kispert. Todd is not ready for anything but garbage time minutes.

The depth we had going into the season is definitely being put to the test. Holiday played OK last night but hopefully Neto comes back soon to help make up for Beal's terribleness so far this year.


Call up Jaime Echinque? Though I think he is the only center on the GoGo.


Frankly, I'll give Todd a few minutes at the 5 to see how it goes. His got the size (6' 9" in socks and 7'1" wingspan) and the athleticism.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread. 

Post#220 » by dckingsfan » Thu Oct 28, 2021 1:33 pm

doclinkin wrote:
9 and 20 wrote:With Gafford out, does Kuzma play some backup C? That leaves the forward position manned by KCP and three of our three rhythm-challenged guys - Deni, Bertans, and Kispert. Todd is not ready for anything but garbage time minutes.

The depth we had going into the season is definitely being put to the test. Holiday played OK last night but hopefully Neto comes back soon to help make up for Beal's terribleness so far this year.


Call up Jaime Echinque? Though I think he is the only center on the GoGo.

Kind of makes a case for having Bryant :D

Lineup of the game?

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