Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[payitforward]

I don’t have a problem with Rui developing his midrange. While he might be at his best from a certain spot on the floor that doesn’t mean he can’t improve from the other spots if he puts in the work.

The midrange game gets a bad rap, IMO. Players like C. Paul, Derozan, K. Leonard and J. Butler have proven that a good midrange game can be a real weapon.

If you can improve one thing -- as Rui's improved his 3-pt. shooting -- that's a positive indicator that, at least maybe, you can improve something else as well.

So, for sure, it would be good if he developed his midrange game.

[dckingsfan]

In the context of where Rui fits in the rotation and what we should hope that he improves on and how Wes can optimize his skills, I do think it is on the defensive end (opinion).

I think being in the second unit where he just needs to hit the three and pick 'n pop would be fine. If he can up his defensive pressure alongside Deni and Gafford that would be very helpful.

When he is alongside Zing and Kuzma I think he just needs to hit the 3 at a high rate to help everyone else and play decent D.

[payitforward]

In the context of where Rui fits in the rotation and what we should hope that he improves on and how Wes can optimize his skills, I do think it is on the defensive end (opinion).

I think being in the second unit where he just needs to hit the three and pick 'n pop would be fine. If he can up his defensive pressure alongside Deni and Gafford that would be very helpful.

When he is alongside Zing and Kuzma I think he just needs to hit the 3 at a high rate to help everyone else and play decent D.

Anything positive he does is a good thing. As is true for any player.

But, there is no "just needs to..." if he's going to be a good player & if he's going to help us win.

Take a look back at Otto Porter's 2d-year numbers (he missed his rookie year due to injury), & you see a kid who is already producing at an above average for an NBA wing. Not b/c one shooting skill sticks out but b/c the base level for his overall numbers was good.

So, I don't think "he just needs to hit the three and pick 'n pop."

Of course, improving on defense would also improve him overall. As it woud any player. But, Rui will turn 25 in just over 4 months. He needs to be on a fast track to improve every aspect of his game.

[dckingsfan]

In the context of where Rui fits in the rotation and what we should hope that he improves on and how Wes can optimize his skills, I do think it is on the defensive end (opinion).

I think being in the second unit where he just needs to hit the three and pick 'n pop would be fine. If he can up his defensive pressure alongside Deni and Gafford that would be very helpful.

When he is alongside Zing and Kuzma I think he just needs to hit the 3 at a high rate to help everyone else and play decent D.

Anything positive he does is a good thing. As is true for any player.

But, there is no "just needs to..." if he's going to be a good player & if he's going to help us win.

Take a look back at Otto Porter's 2d-year numbers (he missed his rookie year due to injury), & you see a kid who is already producing at an above average for an NBA wing. Not b/c one shooting skill sticks out but b/c the base level for his overall numbers was good.

So, I don't think "he just needs to hit the three and pick 'n pop."

Of course, improving on defense would also improve him overall. As it woud any player. But, Rui will turn 25 in just over 4 months. He needs to be on a fast track to improve every aspect of his game.

In context - my question is how will Wes put him in a position to improve.

I might disagree that he has to be on a fast track to improve every aspect of his game to help one of the rotations by improving one aspect of his game.

We don't need to look at overall past performance of a player to speculate how he might be used in a given rotation - especially in this thread. That doesn't mean we should check out his relative improvement in the Rui thread to see how much of an asset he is moving forward... that is also an important question. Just not for this thread, IMO.

[tleikheen]

Rui starts with KP, Kuz,Beal ,& Morris in Tokyo..... Not a hard guess because The Wiz want a country of fans rooting for the Wiz this year ,thats good business. But it gives a head start playing with KP and Kuz on the frontline. If Rui can play in front of his countrymen/women and play well ,alot of pressure ,but everything else should be easier after that.
I also expect to see alot of Corey Kispert, the Wiz need to know if they have a budding sniper on their team.

[payitforward]

...I think being in the second unit where he just needs to hit the three and pick 'n pop would be fine. If he can up his defensive pressure alongside Deni and Gafford that would be very helpful.

When he is alongside Zing and Kuzma I think he just needs to hit the 3 at a high rate to help everyone else and play decent D.

Anything positive he does is a good thing. As is true for any player.

But, there is no "just needs to..." if he's going to be a good player & if he's going to help us win. ...Rui will turn 25 in just over 4 months. He needs to be on a fast track to improve every aspect of his game.

...I might disagree that he has to be on a fast track to improve every aspect of his game to help one of the rotations by improving one aspect of his game.

We don't need to look at overall past performance of a player to speculate how he might be used in a given rotation.....

Not to speculate on how he might be used, no. But to know whether he will help one of the rotations, you need to look at every aspect of his game, since they all affect the game -- no matter when he's on the floor or who's on the floor with him.

In any case, I was reacting mostly to your phrase, "just needs to." No doubt over-reacting a bit.

[dckingsfan]

Anything positive he does is a good thing. As is true for any player.

But, there is no "just needs to..." if he's going to be a good player & if he's going to help us win. ...Rui will turn 25 in just over 4 months. He needs to be on a fast track to improve every aspect of his game.

...I might disagree that he has to be on a fast track to improve every aspect of his game to help one of the rotations by improving one aspect of his game.

We don't need to look at overall past performance of a player to speculate how he might be used in a given rotation.....

Not to speculate on how he might be used, no. But to know whether he will help one of the rotations, you need to look at every aspect of his game, since they all affect the game -- no matter when he's on the floor or who's on the floor with him.

In any case, I was reacting mostly to your phrase, "just needs to." No doubt over-reacting a bit.

All good... and I agree with this part. I am going to assume that Wes would do that for his rotations (but that is the most fascinating part of this season?).

But for rotation purposes, any player might not improve all aspects of their game and still be very useful in a given rotation.

You have pointed out that many of the players on this roster are who they are going to be and we shouldn't assuming that they will improve in a material way. What will be interesting to me is if Wes is able to put them in a rotation and hide their weaknesses will enabling their strengths.

One could easily counter that their previous coaches should have been doing the same.

[payitforward]

...for rotation purposes, any player might not improve all aspects of their game and still be very useful in a given rotation....

If a certain combination of players combines to, somehow, shoot a higher TS% overall, while also gaining extra possessions in some way beyond their usual combined results (fewer TOs, more steals...), &/or also -- as a group -- has an effect on the opponent that causes them to be less efficient in their possessions, then you can claim a particular synergy for that group. & perhaps identifying sets of five that can produce these kinds of results together is an ability of some coaches.

But if you substitute player A for player B, because you want A's far higher 3 point percentage, then you must accept the fact that you will also get the rest of the numbers A puts up at his usual level.

& if, overall, A's numbers are worse than B's numbers, then you have gotten worse not better.

...You have pointed out that many of the players on this roster are who they are going to be and we shouldn't assuming that they will improve in a material way. What will be interesting to me is if Wes is able to put them in a rotation and hide their weaknesses will enabling their strengths....

In the end, those strengths that are now showing, & those weaknesses that are hidden, have to show up in the numbers somewhere.

Keep in mind that every single game, every win & every loss with no exceptions, is 100% the product of the numbers. Period. Nothing else.

So, if Wes is putting one or another player in a better position to succeed, then we will see that in the better numbers the guy puts up.

[dckingsfan]

...for rotation purposes, any player might not improve all aspects of their game and still be very useful in a given rotation....

If a certain combination of players combines to, somehow, shoot a higher TS% overall, while also gaining extra possessions in some way beyond their usual combined results (fewer TOs, more steals...), &/or also -- as a group -- has an effect on the opponent that causes them to be less efficient in their possessions, then you can claim a particular synergy for that group. & perhaps identifying sets of five that can produce these kinds of results together is an ability of some coaches.

But if you substitute player A for player B, because you want A's far higher 3 point percentage, then you must accept the fact that you will also get the rest of the numbers A puts up at his usual level.

& if, overall, A's numbers are worse than B's numbers, then you have gotten worse not better.

...You have pointed out that many of the players on this roster are who they are going to be and we shouldn't assuming that they will improve in a material way. What will be interesting to me is if Wes is able to put them in a rotation and hide their weaknesses will enabling their strengths....

In the end, those strengths that are now showing, & those weaknesses that are hidden, have to show up in the numbers somewhere.

Keep in mind that every single game, every win & every loss with no exceptions, is 100% the product of the numbers. Period. Nothing else.

So, if Wes is putting one or another player in a better position to succeed, then we will see that in the better numbers the guy puts up.

This. That is what I am interested in. Can Wes extract a little more out of this team than maybe we expect either due to the synergy or his schemas for that particular group. Doc has me intrigued with the possibilities (much better than a straight dreading of the season ).

One thing I don't want to argue about and I am in full agreement with - this will fully show up in the numbers one way or the other. If not in the individual numbers (although it should), certainly in the team numbers (as compared to last year for example) and specific rotations.

[payitforward]

Well... team numbers are just individual numbers added up, so if it's in one place then it's in the other! Of course, it's possible for one guy's improvement to have a positive effect on another guy's numbers -- why not?

In any case, it's still on Rui to improve -- who else could it possibly be on? &, let's hope he does! Significantly!

[doclinkin]

If a certain combination of players combines to, somehow, shoot a higher TS% overall, while also gaining extra possessions in some way beyond their usual combined results (fewer TOs, more steals...), &/or also -- as a group -- has an effect on the opponent that causes them to be less efficient in their possessions, then you can claim a particular synergy for that group. & perhaps identifying sets of five that can produce these kinds of results together is an ability of some coaches.

This. That is what I am interested in. Can Wes extract a little more out of this team than maybe we expect either due to the synergy or his schemas for that particular group. Doc has me intrigued with the possibilities (much better than a straight dreading of the season ).

One thing I don't want to argue about and I am in full agreement with - this will fully show up in the numbers one way or the other. If not in the individual numbers (although it should), certainly in the team numbers (as compared to last year for example) and specific rotations.

The other thing I am interested in is the variation in those numbers. I noted it in the shot charts of Bradley Beal. His hot zone has shifted from year to year. Some part of that may have been coaching; some personnel. When you have John Wall blowing past defenses forcing them to collapse, you get a wide open shot from the corner when he spoonfeeds you the ball. Coaches have pet plays and sets they like to operate out of. These may be better for some players than others. A coach who plays Deni by standing him in a corner and expecting him to make 3's has a misunderstanding of his skillset. Scotty Brooks would lose every game of Eurobasket play.

However, aside from the game within the game, there is a logical fallacy in the idea that a players numbers are surely what they will be the year before. Players adjust and improve. Certain coaches, and organizations, are better than others at coaxing out that improvement over time. Pat Riley has build an entire organization out of his Career Best Effort philosophy. Steve Kerr and coach Pop are noted to see better development in their young guys than other teams can generally expect.

Rui is an interesting case because he has played so few games that we don't know how much of his limited skill set is an outlier due to inexperience and being new to the game. And even language or cultural barriers. You can't learn team defense by watching FIBA highlights of Carmelo to practice alone in a gym.

But scrolling through Rui's year-by-year shot chart you do see improvement in his game from the one thing he can practice: shotmaking. Take a look. As a rookie he took shots from anywhere. Year 2, too many mid-range misses. Last year: more 3's and dunks than from low percentage areas. Good signs for better shot selection. A smart coach will work to coax more of this out of him:

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

(Rui P&R and post-ups)

As nate has noted, a version of Rui who learns the pick and roll game is a real weapon on offense.
As Taj Gibson has noted: our team sets softass picks.

A coach who fosters a relationship between Taj and Rui might see improvement in the truly terrible picks Rui sets even in this highlight reel. Rui played with force when Westbrook was riding him. Maybe Taj can prove an even better role model for the development of every part of his game that is so evidently lacking to anyone who studies the game. Beal seems to suggest Rui looks ready for a breakout. Players who do adjust to the league tend to see the biggest jump in year 3. Rui hasn't been around for 3 years worth of games. Who he is may indeed forever be the player we see in his stats: incomplete. But no matter what he has rare physical potential that few players have. And can do some things nobody else does:

Watch on YouTube

[doclinkin]

But mostly this

Doc has me intrigued with the possibilities (much better than a straight dreading of the season

Just sifting through dirt for nuggets of golden possibility. They are there, even if it is exceedingly unlikely that we strike it rich. There's gold in them thar hills!

It's the offseason, allow us some room to dream man.

[payitforward]

...room to dream....

Most important! No reason not to enjoy getting excited. If things don't work out as one would want... there'll be plenty of time to be miserable later!

To me, the most important desiderata are:

1. KP -- a full, healthy season in which on-court results match his obvious talents.
2. BB -- return to form.
3. Monte & Delon -- play at the levels that they've already demonstrated in the league.
4. Rui -- return his rebounding, FT rate, & FT% to his rookie levels, while continuing to shoot the 3 the way he did last year. This is a big one, b/c if he accomplishes those goals he's made it; he's a good NBA player.
5. Deni -- as big an improvement over last year as last year was over his rookie year.
6. Corey -- as big an improvement over his rookie year as Deni made.
7. Johnny Davis -- have as good a rookie year as Corey had (ok... that's asking a lot, since he's unlikely to get that level of PT).
8. Makur Maker/Quenton Jackson/Devon Dotson/Vernon Cary Jr -- one or more of these 4 guys prove that he's a genuinely promising young NBA prospect.
9. Kyle Kuzma -- At least return to '20-21 productivity. Anything more would be gravy!
10. Anthony Gill -- play 1000 minutes.

If all of that happens... well, ok... I guess that's too much to ask. Give me the first 3 & as many as possible of the last 7.

[doclinkin]

...room to dream....

Most important! No reason not to enjoy getting excited. If things don't work out as one would want... there'll be plenty of time to be miserable later!

To me, the most important desiderata are:

Spoiler:

1. KP -- a full, healthy season in which on-court results match his obvious talents.
2. BB -- return to form.
3. Monte & Delon -- play at the levels that they've already demonstrated in the league.
4. Rui -- return his rebounding, FT rate, & FT% to his rookie levels, while continuing to shoot the 3 the way he did last year. This is a big one, b/c if he accomplishes those goals he's made it; he's a good NBA player.
5. Deni -- as big an improvement over last year as last year was over his rookie year.
6. Corey -- as big an improvement over his rookie year as Deni made.
7. Johnny Davis -- have as good a rookie year as Corey had (ok... that's asking a lot, since he's unlikely to get that level of PT).
8. Makur Maker/Quenton Jackson/Devon Dotson/Vernon Cary Jr -- one or more of these 4 guys prove that he's a genuinely promising young NBA prospect.
9. Kyle Kuzma -- At least return to '20-21 productivity. Anything more would be gravy!
10. Anthony Gill -- play 1000 minutes.

If all of that happens... well, ok... I guess that's too much to ask. Give me the first 3 & as many as possible of the last 7.

How many wins do you say are added:
With that whole list.
The first 3.
First 3 and pick any other plausible one.

[payitforward]

...To me, the most important desiderata are:

Spoiler:

1. KP -- a full, healthy season in which on-court results match his obvious talents.
2. BB -- return to form.
3. Monte & Delon -- play at the levels that they've already demonstrated in the league.
4. Rui -- return his rebounding, FT rate, & FT% to his rookie levels, while continuing to shoot the 3 the way he did last year. This is a big one, b/c if he accomplishes those goals he's made it; he's a good NBA player.
5. Deni -- as big an improvement over last year as last year was over his rookie year.
6. Corey -- as big an improvement over his rookie year as Deni made.
7. Johnny Davis -- have as good a rookie year as Corey had (ok... that's asking a lot, since he's unlikely to get that level of PT).
8. Makur Maker/Quenton Jackson/Devon Dotson/Vernon Cary Jr -- one or more of these 4 guys prove that he's a genuinely promising young NBA prospect.
9. Kyle Kuzma -- At least return to '20-21 productivity. Anything more would be gravy!
10. Anthony Gill -- play 1000 minutes.

If all of that happens... well, ok... I guess that's too much to ask. Give me the first 3 & as many as possible of the last 7.

How many wins do you say are added:
With that whole list.
The first 3.
First 3 and pick any other plausible one.

Great question.
One thing that makes it difficult to answer is that Brad didn't play a whole season last year.
IMO, Brad's best season was '18-19. If he'd played his 1437 minutes last year at the level of '18-19, I'd say that alone could have meant 2-3 more wins.

But of course we want him to play, say, 2400 minutes not 1437 minutes! & at a high level. That would make him worth maybe 8 wins.

In the case of KP, what's the base line? Do you have a comp? I.e., "if KP played 2000 minutes, & he played like _______, he'd likely be bringing us about ___ wins."

But, who's the right comparison? E.g. Robert Williams has turned into a tremendously effective player at C. But KP's game is nothing like his! On the other end of the spectrum is Jokic, who's also (obviously) tremendous -- but he's kind of the opposite sort of player to Williams. He's an offensive powerhouse, while Williams scores at an incredibly high % but only right around the basket. & gets almost 2 times the offensive boards as missed shots.

KP isn't like either of those guys. OTOH, a guy whose numbers (not his style of play) might make him a good comparison is KAT. If KP plays 2000 minutes, & he plays with the same impact as Karl-Anthony Towns, he could be worth 7 wins -- about twice as many as an average NBA center). I'm putting his minutes at 2000, because we do want Gafford playing 1600+ minutes as well. Gaff could bring 6 wins.

We can think of Morris & Wright as replacing Dinwiddie, Neto, Holiday, Ish & Sato (@4400 minutes in that group -- & let's say they amounted to a mere 7-8 wins). Overall, they make us much better. About 10-12 wins better. Adding those two guys is the biggest change by far.

This doesn't account for every change, of course -- & anyway it's grossly speculative! Just another way to look at the fake snow falling in the snow globe we're using as a model of real weather!

KCP is gone, of course -- I'm assuming that 900-1000 of his 2300 minutes go to a healthy Brad Beal & the rest to the newly-added Will Barton. Given that I've already estimated Beal above including those extra minutes, we have @1300 minutes left for Barton, which makes perfectly good sense, so throw in a couple of wins for those minutes.

That's 42-43 wins. & we have only considered what 6 players bring -- Beal, KP, Gafford, Morris, Wright, & Barton. Which should tell you what a rosy picture it is that I am painting!

Plus, we've allotted only about 10,700 of the 19,680 minutes available.

Who've we left out?

Rui, Deni, Corey & Kuzma will surely eat up most of the @ 9000 remaining minutes. Taj & Gill aren't likely to play heavy minutes (unless Taj somehow gets majorly rejuvenated). Carey, Todd & Davis don't seem likely to see the floor much at all.

This is a picture of a 53-56 win team overall. Should tell you how optimistic a picture I have painted!

[tleikheen]

This is a picture of a 53-56 win team overall

Ole' !

[dobrojim]

53 wins would be great. And it's fun to get excited and put off disappointment until some future time.
That said, I personally I prefer to keep my expectations more on the realistic side of things, at least in
my own mind. I'd prefer not to be excessively disappointed later.

Our last 50 win season was ...when? 1970s? (okay, I looked it up, it's 1979).
Eventually, that streak will end just as the Red Sox came back from 0-3
and eventually won a WS.

With that in mind, I'm not expecting anything like 53 wins.

[payitforward]

Neither am I!!

In fact, I don't expect us to reach 40 wins.

I'm not confident that Brad will bounce back to his previous level. I'm not confident that KP will be any healthier or more productive than he has been in his overall career to date. I'm not confident that Rui will finally establish himself. Above all, the idea that all three of those things will happen is, obviously, far less likely than any one of them happening.

I do think that Monte, Wright & Barton are, overall, upgrades over KCP, Ish, Holiday, Neto & Dinwiddie. & I'm reasonably confident that Deni & Kispert will develop further this season. So we should be better than the team that closed the season 25-44 (i.e. a 32-win team).

[nate33]

Our last 50 win season was ...when? 1970s? (okay, I looked it up, it's 1979).
Eventually, that streak will end just as the Red Sox came back from 0-3
and eventually won a WS.

I don't see that streak ending anytime in the next 5 years. Beal's contract will ensure that. He is just good enough to keep us out of the top of the lottery where franchise-changing talent is available, but he isn't good enough to carry a team to 50 wins. And his large contract prohibits free agency from being a route to acquire a star.

The only remote hope is that Porzingis makes a significant mid-career jump in production and plays like a top 20 player while also remaining uncharacteristically healthy.

Basically, this franchise won't win 50 unless Beal is the clear second-best player. Frankly, as long as Ted is the owner, it wouldn't surprise me if we went another 20 years without a 50 win season.

[dobrojim]

Our last 50 win season was ...when? 1970s? (okay, I looked it up, it's 1979).
Eventually, that streak will end just as the Red Sox came back from 0-3
and eventually won a WS.

I don't see that streak ending anytime in the next 5 years. Beal's contract will ensure that. He is just good enough to keep us out of the top of the lottery where franchise-changing talent is available, but he isn't good enough to carry a team to 50 wins. And his large contract prohibits free agency from being a route to acquire a star.

The only remote hope is that Porzingis makes a significant mid-career jump in production and plays like a top 20 player while also remaining uncharacteristically healthy.

Basically, this franchise won't win 50 unless Beal is the clear second-best player. Frankly, as long as Ted is the owner, it wouldn't surprise me if we went another 20 years without a 50 win season.

It'll probably turn out that we could have drafted someone who is a much greater difference maker
than Davis (yes I know it's early days). A few other franchises manage to do this much better than we do.
Tari Eason....